The trade: The Texas Rangers acquire RHP Max Scherzer and cash from the New York Mets for IF Luisangel Acuna.
When the Los Angeles Angels declared that Shohei Ohtani wouldn't be dealt before the trade deadline, one sad consequence was that it seemed to make the deadline itself a little more banal. There would be trades, sure, but an Ohtani deal itself would have made this an indelible week. Maybe the deadline would be on the dull side or maybe it wouldn't, but our shot at a big fish changing teams seemed far less likely.
Well, that changed Saturday night. No one in MLB matches Ohtani's ability to generate headlines, but a deadline that was already growing in substance thanks to the offloading aggression of the Chicago White Sox and New York Mets now has a signature deal with a future Hall of Famer on the move.
Max Scherzer became the latest rotation standout to make his way from the Mets to the Texas Rangers, joining a list that includes such notables as Nolan Ryan, Jon Matlack and Jacob deGrom. Another name on the roll call of those who pitched for the Mets and the Rangers (feel free to commit all this to memory if it comes up on the Immaculate Grid) is Chris Young, the general manager who just landed the starter who might have the biggest impact of any player acquired this trade season.
Let's grade it.
Texas Rangers: Scherzer's new mission: Put a first-place team with a strong rotation over the top in its World Series quest -- the same thing he joined the Los Angeles Dodgers to do when he was shipped from the Washington Nationals midseason two years ago.
That time around, Scherzer dominated down the stretch, going 7-0 over 11 starts with a 1.98 ERA for his new team. Then his postseason ended in disappointing fashion, even after he picked up a series-clinching save in the National League Division Series against the San Francisco Giants. Scherzer struggled with arm fatigue that limited him to one short outing in the Dodgers' NL Championship Series loss to the Atlanta Braves. A year later, he gave up seven runs in a loss to the San Diego Padres in the wild-card round.
All that is to say, Scherzer has got to be hungry for his next October opportunity, and this deal means he will likely get it. Unlike the buzz his arrival in L.A. generated two years ago, excitement about his arrival in Texas ought to be tempered by the reality that the 2023 version of Mad Max has been a little less furious than in years past. That's why when I write that Scherzer "might" be the most impactful deadline acquisition, the equivocation is necessary.
Scherzer's 4.01 ERA is his worst since 2011, and his 23 homers allowed are the most in the NL. His numbers suggest a pitcher who has been leaving his four-seamer and slider in bad spots, and Statcast's expected numbers underscore Scherzer's results, rather than suggesting a positive regression. But mostly, the metrics on his pitches have been within a narrow range from game to game and at the bottom line aren't alarming when held up against last season, when he posted a 2.29 ERA but also showed less dominance. However you view it, the results this season have not been Scherzer-like.
The good news: The deal reunites Scherzer with pitching coach Mike Maddux, who was the Nationals' pitching coach in 2016 and 2017 under Dusty Baker. How did Scherzer do then? He went 36-13 with a 2.75 ERA, led the NL in strikeouts and WHIP both campaigns and won his second and third Cy Young awards.
And even at his current numbers, Scherzer will be an improvement on this Rangers' rotation, especially since deGrom went down with a season-ending elbow injury. Though the unit has been a strength this season in the aggregate, lately it has shown signs of slippage.
Overall, Rangers starters rank ninth in the majors in both bWAR and quality start percentage, and they are tied for fifth in average game score. The rotation ERA (3.86) ranks sixth -- but here's the monthly progression of that number: 3.18, 3.16, 4.16, 5.12. That's not the trend you want to see from a contender.
The performances of Andrew Heaney, Jon Gray, Martin Perez and Dane Dunning have all slid by varying degrees over the course of the season, though Cy Young contender Nathan Eovaldi has continued to shine. Even with Scherzer, the Rangers will need to get those other guys going. But for this deal to help the Rangers make a deep run this postseason, they'll need Scherzer to regress toward career norms.
Even with his struggles, Scherzer has been a plus producer this season. But his personal bar is very high, and he has not been a $43 million (per annum) pitcher. There, the cash the Mets are sending along helps the valuation of the trade, for sure. His decision to opt in for 2024 also means the Rangers have a shot at entering next year's playoffs with Scherzer, deGrom and Eovaldi at the front of their rotation.
And more than that: If Scherzer excels down the stretch and into October for a franchise that is still looking for its first World Series trophy, no one will care about the pay. Will he? That's an open question, but if you want to bet against Max Scherzer, you probably haven't been paying attention over the past 15 or so seasons.
Still, this is a gamble. It's a lot of money, Mets aid aside, and the prospect Texas is sending back to the Mets -- Luisangel Acuna -- is no joke. On the other hand, this fun season in Arlington just got even more interesting. Insofar as you can like the ceiling of a 38-year-old pitcher, you have to like the potential of what Scherzer might bring to the Rangers if he can refine his arsenal with the help of Maddux.
That's the crux of this for me. The Rangers might someday regret trading Acuna, but when you're aiming at a ring ceremony, that lost prospect is worth the possibility that the Rangers will get more than one season of something close to the full Mad Max experience.
Grade: B+
New York Mets: Some didn't like the Mets' return for David Robertson because the two position players they received from the Marlins are so far from reaching Citi Field. I felt like those critics were kind of overestimating what two months of David Robertson is worth, but even beyond that, gathering young -- even very young -- quality talent is always a good thing for an organization.
Maybe the Mets aren't going to wait out a lengthy development period on some prospects, but here's the thing: If you believe in your processes and those players continue to progress, you can trade them if you are trying to accelerate your big league timeline. Talent is currency, either on the field or on the transaction wire.
This trade carries a little more prospect splash for the Mets because of the name involved: Acuna. Gives you shivers, right? And in case you don't follow prospect news, yes, Luisangel Acuna is the brother of Ronald Acuna Jr. (which, if Luisangel continues to develop, should make for some great NL East battles down the line).
And it's not necessarily going to be that far down the line. Luisangel Acuna, 21, is already in Double-A, where he is slashing .315/.377/.453. The younger brother doesn't appear to have Ronald's power stroke, but he has the same flair on the bases with huge stolen base totals in the minors, including 42 in 84 games this season. Kiley McDaniel recently rated Acuna as the Rangers' fifth-best prospect (in an organization that McDaniel ranked as the eighth best in baseball), with a future value of 45+.
The young talent the Mets are gathering via their teardown trades (as they also cut into their record payroll) improves their position going forward. Yes, New York can and almost certainly will spend at the top of the market. If the Mets feel like they are in position to win at a high level, then they will be competitive on the best free agents out there, especially the best available starting pitchers.
But the Mets also need to get to the point where they are not relaying on nine-digit contracts to already-Cooperstown-qualified players in an effort to get over the top. As we've seen in often frightening fashion this season, such an approach is awash in downside.
Adding to the depth of their system, right now, in a non-contending season, increases the Mets' options for improving their roster in the years to come. Standing pat at this juncture would have been a huge mistake for New York. As disappointing and inefficient as this roster has been, at least now the Mets are making sound decisions that reflect the reality of where they are.