When you read most any prediction or overview of a free-agency period, you'll invariably encounter some line about money being the ultimate deciding factor in where a player will sign. Money, as in how much he and his agent are seeking, and money, as in how much various teams are able and willing to spend.
Sadly -- or not depending your perspective -- this is absolutely true, and Major League Baseball has proved this to be the case every winter since the mid-1970s.
But what if it weren't true?
Imagine a baseball world in which the ruling principle wasn't money, but what was best for the "game" -- that intangible thing beyond fans, media, players, owners, general managers or commissioners.
Imagine there is perfect economic parity. Team revenues are 100% egalitarian from team to team, and so too are expenses. A player's worth is a concept both fixed and agreed upon by the owners and players union. Money, in other words, is not a deciding factor.
The factors that would inform a player's choice would vary, and be the subject of much debate. While the money-is-irrelevant theme of our alternate baseball universe is fanciful, the other factors are not. They are real and we refer to them sometimes, it's just that they are subtopics to the main topic of money.
In our maximizing-happiness, money-irrelevant baseball universe, where might this season's top free agents choose to land?
Let's consider that question, and what players, teams and fans might talk about if they weren't talking about money.
Top 25 free agents
1. Carlos Correa
Perfect-world fit: Houston Astros
Correa has spent his entire career with Houston, and the Astros don't have an obvious in-house replacement to take his place. He's flourished with Houston, his only organization, and as will be the case for several of the top free agents in a money-neutral world, there is an "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" aspect to this selection.
Therein lies one possible glimpse at what free agency might look like if money was not the top deciding factor. That is, the status quo might be more the rule than the exception. Players build up a comfort zone with a team, they build homes and families in a city and create ties with the community. For top players especially, these things might override any consideration of a move.
Another factor for free agents at the top of the class -- maybe not for them, but for the "game" -- is the allure of becoming a one-team Hall of Famer. These players have always been rare and have become increasingly so in recent decades. The Astros have been lucky enough to have two of them in Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell -- neither of them spent a day on another big league roster.
Correa, if he remains in Houston, is good enough to eventually become such a player.
2. Corey Seager
Perfect-world fit: Philadelphia Phillies
It's easy to go with the status quo for most of these players, but in Seager's case, that case is muddied by the presence of Trea Turner on the Dodgers' roster to take his place at shortstop. While Seager can change positions at some point, as Turner did this year after Los Angeles traded for him, the "game" for the present is maximized by great shortstops doing what they do every day.
Seager might have the same consideration as Correa in becoming a one-team Hall of Famer. In fact, he would be the first Los Angeles Dodgers position player to become one. The only one-team Dodger position players who made the Hall of Fame all came during the Brooklyn years -- Jackie Robinson, Roy Campanella and Pee Wee Reese.
Still, we're considering player preferences on roughly an even par with team preferences, all under the guise of maximizing our best version of Major League Baseball in 2022. With the Phillies, Seager would fill one of the game's longest-standing shortstop voids and join a club that has a contending foundation. It's also a team that might have the positional availability to sign another of this winter's free agents: Seager's brother, Kyle.
3. Freddie Freeman
Perfect-world fit: Atlanta Braves
Freeman was raised in Southern California, not far from Angel Stadium of Anaheim, and he grew up rooting for the Angels. He also has a house in the area, though he has one in Atlanta as well. Freeman also has dual citizenship, as both of his parents were born in Canada, and fans north of the border would surely love to see him in a Blue Jays uniform.
Still, we fall back on a familiar observation: It is just so hard to envision Freeman in a uniform other than that of the Atlanta Braves. That's more true now than ever in the wake of Atlanta's World Series win. Could you imagine Freeman not being on hand for the unfurling of the championship banner, or the ring ceremony? Finally, Freeman is another possible member of the one-team Hall of Famer club. If he gets there, he would join friend and mentor Chipper Jones in Braves lore.
4. Trevor Story
Perfect-world fit: Texas Rangers
Fewer free agents fit into a nifty geographic consideration than you would think, but Story does. He was born and raised in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and attended Irving High School, which is roughly 12 miles from Globe Life Field. Shortstop hasn't been a particular long-standing void for the Rangers and after a few down years at the position, Isiah Kiner-Falefa had a productive 2021, at least if you buy fully into his defensive metrics.
Still, Story would be a significant offensive upgrade for the Rangers, and Kiner-Falefa, who has played third base, shortstop and catcher in the big leagues, has the versatility to do other things. Finally, the Rangers have been a bit faceless the past couple of years, especially after dealing away Joey Gallo at last season's trade deadline. Bringing Story home would be a step back toward a marketable competitiveness.
5. Marcus Semien
Perfect-world fit: Chicago White Sox
Semien, 30, has never won a ring and by joining the White Sox to play second base, he could prove to be the last piece of the championship puzzle on the South Side. Coming off an MVP-caliber season for Toronto in which he won a Gold Glove at the keystone, there may not be a better fit in free agency for the White Sox. Besides the defensive upgrade, Semien's power-speed game would fit right into the White Sox lineup, while his patient approach would help balance a largely aggressive Chicago attack.
Also, in signing Semien, the White Sox could repair what currently looks like two major mistakes. One is clearly a mistake: Semien was drafted by the White Sox in 2011 and broke into the majors with the club before being traded to Oakland in 2014 along with Chris Bassitt, Josh Phegley and Rangel Ravelo for Jeff Samardzija and Michael Ynoa. Yikes.
The other apparent mistake: Trading Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer to the Cubs last season for Craig Kimbrel and Ryan Tepera, which is the deal that created Chicago's need at second base, since Madrigal's replacement, Cesar Hernandez, did not work out.
Incidentally, Semien also has some loose ties to another famous, recent White Sox mistake. One of his college teammates at California was pitcher Erik Johnson. Johnson was the other player the White Sox sent to San Diego in 2016 for James Shields in the trade that made Fernando Tatis Jr. a Padre.
6. Kevin Gausman
Perfect-world fit: San Francisco Giants
For some players on whom we landed on the status quo, the bottom line is that their tie to a franchise seems so tight that you can't envision them changing teams. That's not the case for Gausman, who has spent just two seasons in San Francisco. There are lots of teams for which he would be a welcome rotation upgrade. Or maybe you could look at a coming-full-circle factor, in that he returns to the Orioles to head up what Baltimore hopes will be an improving, prospect-laden rotation.
Really though, it comes down to this: Over his first seven big league seasons, Gausman's ERA was 4.30, his ERA+ was 99, his winning percentage was .427 and he struck out 8.3 batters per nine innings. In two seasons with the Giants, he's had a 3.00 ERA, 138 ERA+, a .654 winning percentage and 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings. For Gausman, and the Giants, this is a classic "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" situation.
7. Max Scherzer
Perfect-world fit: St. Louis Cardinals
This one is fairly obvious. Scherzer is from suburban St. Louis, rooted for the Cardinals in his youth, and starred in college ball for Mizzou. He's always received warmly in the city as a visiting player, though he doesn't live in the area. But he does live in Jupiter, Florida, which happens to be where the Cardinals conduct spring training. The Cardinals drafted Scherzer out of high school, though he did not sign.
On top of all that, one of the Cardinals' biggest needs is for an ace, and after Jack Flaherty's issues with consistency and health, there's no guarantee Flaherty will be a No. 1 -- the guy you want starting the first game of a postseason series. Scherzer would be a finishing piece for a contending roster, and his presence might also have a competitive ripple effect on St. Louis' other starters -- including Flaherty, but also Adam Wainwright, who would not carry the same burden that he did for the 2021 Redbirds.
Frankly, this fit looks so perfect, there is only one thing that could mess it up in the real world: Money.
8. Kris Bryant
Perfect-world fit: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies could use upgrades at both left field and third base, which happen to be two spots Bryant can fill. In a universal-DH world, Alec Bohm can go ahead and make the move over to a first base/DH combo, sharing the role with Rhys Hoskins. Didi Gregorius can bounce around the diamond. Let's face it, though: The best part of this fit is to get Bryant and buddy Bryce Harper on the same team. Harper's contract with the Phillies runs through at least 2031, so if it's going to happen, it'll have to happen in Philadelphia.
9. Robbie Ray
Perfect-world fit: Detroit Tigers
Ray really found himself with the Blue Jays this year and should be a hot commodity this winter for any team seeking a top-of-the-rotation starter. The status quo makes clear sense, perhaps more than Detroit, as the Blue Jays have all the traits of a team on the cusp of high-level success. Another team that makes sense is the Dodgers, who need veteran stability for their rotation (assuming free-agent departures from the likes of Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw). L.A. has a possible added lure in Mookie Betts, with whom Ray played youth baseball in Tennessee.
We went with the Tigers, though. Detroit could use a veteran to head up its deep pool of talented young starters as they look to make the turn toward contention. Ray fits that bill. It also closes a loop for the franchise. Ray broke into the majors with Detroit in 2014 before the Tigers dealt him to Arizona in a three-team trade that sent Gregorius to the Yankees. We love the "coming full circle" factor.
10. Starling Marte
Perfect-world fit: Miami Marlins
Marte is at a place in his career when picking a team that gives him the best shot at a ring makes sense. Among contending teams, you could see him fit with the Giants, Padres, Yankees and Red Sox, among others.
The Marlins need a center fielder, too, and are looking to turn the corner with their rebuilding plan. Of course, they just had Marte before dealing him to Oakland at last season's deadline in advance of his free agency. Yet all indications were that Marte really liked playing for the Marlins and didn't really want to be traded. He also played very well during his time in Miami.
The trade was motivated by money. The Marlins did offer Marte an extension, a reported three-year, $30 million deal, that is likely to look somewhat light after Marte eventually signs this winter. But in our money-neutral world, that doesn't matter. Marte can go back to Miami and we can all live happily ever after.
11. Javier Baez
Perfect-world fit: Toronto Blue Jays
If we assume Semien signs elsewhere, and we don't know that would be true if money didn't matter, then there's an opening in the Toronto infield. Baez could fit right in. The allure here is simply this: Baez would add one of baseball's most exciting players to one of its most exciting teams. Then there is this nice little family fit: Baez's wife is the sister of the wife of Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios.
12. Clayton Kershaw
Perfect-world fit: Los Angeles Dodgers
Kershaw hails from and still lives in the Dallas area, and it's been common thinking in recent years that if Kershaw were to leave the Dodgers, the Rangers would be the most likely destination. That's not just because of geography, but because of the heavy emphasis Kershaw has always put on the role of family in his life.
Despite those very good reasons to list Texas as Kershaw's perfect-world fit, we just can't do it. Few players in baseball are as closely associated with a franchise as Kershaw is with the Dodgers. If he finishes his career with the team, he'll join Don Drysdale and Sandy Koufax as Dodger pitchers who became one-team Hall of Famers. It is just really hard to imagine Kershaw in another uniform, even if that is precisely what we end up seeing in a few months.
13. Nick Castellanos
Perfect-world fit: Miami Marlins
Even in a vacuum, Castellanos is a perfect fit for the Marlins. With a depth of strong starting pitching as a foundation, Miami needs middle-of-the-order production, upgrades in the outfield and improved veteran stability in its lineup. On top of all that, Castellanos is from South Florida.
14. Carlos Rodon
Perfect-world fit: Los Angeles Dodgers
Rodon has been through so much with the White Sox that you kind of want to see him stick around and be a part of Chicago's current window of contention for as long as possible. Still, Dodger Stadium is a place where pitchers go to flourish. And the current Dodgers have the depth and the philosophies to get the most out of a dynamic pitcher like Rodon, without overdoing the workload of a pitcher who has been hurt so often. Also, if you want a personal connection, Rodon was a pretty good hitter at North Carolina State (which probably no longer matters in a universal-DH version of the National League), and one of his Wolfpack teammates was current Dodger Trea Turner.
15. Michael Conforto
Perfect-world fit: New York Mets
Looking through non-money factors, there's little that jumps out as a fit for Conforto. He's a good player who has never won a ring, and several top contenders could use outfield help. Conforto is from the Seattle area but the Mariners are knee-deep in young corner outfielders. Really, we landed on the Mets for two basic reasons. One, the Mets need him. Two, doesn't it feel like Conforto has unfinished business in New York?
16. Eduardo Rodriguez
Perfect-world fit: Los Angeles Angels
In a perfect baseball world, the Angels get a couple of quality veteran starting pitchers to finally field a playoff-caliber rotation, get Mike Trout back to the playoffs, and get Shohei Ohtani there for the first time. This fit is about that, and nothing else. And we will be copying this comment to go with another fit listed below.
17. Seiya Suzuki
Perfect-world fit: Minnesota Twins
Not much to go on here. One multiyear teammate of Suzuki's, when the two played together on the Hiroshima Carp, is Twins pitcher Kenta Maeda. Plus Suzuki could provide some of the pop the Twins lost when they traded Nelson Cruz.
18. Marcus Stroman
Perfect-world fit: New York Mets and New York Yankees
It just feels like Stroman should play in New York. As in all the time. In an ideal world, he could play for the Mets when they are at home, then stay around the Big Apple and hop over to the Yankees when the Mets light out on the road.
19. Avisail Garcia
Perfect-world fit: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox did Garcia wrong a couple of years back by non-tendering him one season after he hit .330 and made the American League All-Star team. Now, three years later, the White Sox still need a right fielder and Garcia has remained an above-average player at the position. During his last three seasons with the White Sox, Garcia averaged 2.7 bWAR per 650 plate appearances. During the three seasons since he left, he's been at 2.5. So the White Sox would be getting basically the same player, back in an environment where he flourished, playing in a more competitive context.
20. Raisel Iglesias
Perfect-world fit: Miami Marlins
The Marlins have had a rough time piecing together top-flight bullpens, and as they try to translate their growing roster into a sustainable contender, they have got to figure that out. The problem becomes a lot easier if you've got a sure-fire answer at the back of the bullpen. Iglesias is certainly that. And for someone like Iglesias, who was born in Cuba, Miami is not a bad place to be.
21. Kyle Schwarber
Perfect-world fit: Cincinnati Reds
That swing in Yankee Stadium is a combination that has always seemed alluring. But Schwarber is exactly the kind of player the Yankees don't need right now. You might say the same thing about the Reds, but Schwarber is from Ohio and the universal DH is probably coming. He grew up rooting for the Reds and apparently liked to emulate Joey Votto as a young player. All players should get to play for their hometown team next to someone they admired.
22. Chris Taylor
Perfect-world fit: Los Angeles Dodgers
The funny thing is, a month ago, Taylor wouldn't have landed here. He has so much versatility that he can solve any number of problem positions for contending teams. Also, because Taylor is so reserved with the media and reticent to talk about himself, he didn't seem a perfect match with the glamour-laden Dodgers.
Then, during the postseason, L.A. teammate A.J. Pollock told the media that the two things that actually get Taylor excited are beer and surfing. You can get beer anywhere, and you can watch surfing anywhere. But if you want to actually get out on the water ... Taylor probably should just stay put.
23. Jon Gray
Perfect-world fit: Los Angeles Angels
Here's the copied comment: In a perfect baseball world, the Angels get a couple of quality veteran starting pitchers to finally field a playoff caliber rotation, get Mike Trout back to the playoffs, and get Shohei Ohtani there for the first time. This fit is about that, and nothing else.
For Gray, we'll augment our little act of self-plagiarism by noting that he has been pretty clear that he'd prefer to remain in Colorado. And in an ideal baseball world, players wouldn't have to leave places they like because of money.
However, the Angels need a playoff rotation, and we'll assume Gray will enjoy a Plato's Cave moment once he no longer calls Coors Field home. Once he sees what it's like to not pitch half his games there, his love of Colorado will take a back seat to his shrinking ERA.
24. Anthony DeSclafani
Perfect-world fit: Saan Francisco Giants
See Kevin Gausman's comment above. DeSclafani has never been better than he was this season, his first with the Giants. And if it ain't broke ...
25. Mark Canha
Perfect-world fit: Oakland Athletics
You could do a book of what the history of the Athletics would look like if money weren't the prevailing master of the baseball universe. It's made being an Athletics fan a bittersweet experience for more than 100 years, from Philadelphia to Kansas City to Oakland and, maybe someday, Las Vegas. Canha has been a fine, underrated player for Oakland. After changing teams a couple of times as a minor leaguer, Canha has spent his entire big league career with the A's, and late this season, professed his sadness about perhaps leaving the franchise. He's also from San Jose. In our perfect world, Canha would not have to leave the A's.
Other fits
26. Noah Syndergaard
Perfect-world fit: Texas Rangers
Syndergaard is from Mansfield, Texas, a suburb on the edge of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex and just down one of the area's screaming freeways from Globe Life Field. He grew up watching the Rangers and his high school is about 17 miles from the park. That's what's really driving this match, that and a vague notion that a fully healthy, fully realized version of Syndergaard could pick up the fireballing-Texas-ace mantle once held by Nolan Ryan. Ryan, of course, also began his career as a Met, and, like Thor, had a wonderful nickname (Ryan Express).
You could argue for the Reds, as Cincinnati reliever Tejay Antone was a high school teammate and you'd love to see what Reds pitching guru Derek Johnson might do with Thor, but this Texas thing is just too perfect.
34. Justin Verlander
Perfect-world fit: Detroit Tigers
Verlander is an even better fit for Detroit than Ray, and the reasons are clear. He'll go into the Hall of Fame as a Tiger (one would presume) and has never closed the door on a possible return to finish his career. For the same reasons mentioned for Ray, with Detroit ready to turn the corner, the timing is perfect for a Verlander return, and a rekindling of his long-time association with Miguel Cabrera. This is the best "full circle" scenario possible in this year's free agency.
35. Kenley Jansen
Perfect-world fit: Los Angeles Dodgers
Jansen was terrific this season and he isn't far behind Kershaw in terms of how hard it is to imagine him with another team, even if he did stop using "California Love" as his walk-in song. If money is not a factor, it's impossible to envision Jansen leaving the Dodgers.
42. Kyle Seager
Perfect-world fit: Philadelphia Phillies
There's the same positional need that made Bryant a fit for the Phillies. But, yeah, this is mostly about getting the Seager brothers on the same team. Plus, in a money-independent zone, the Phillies can perhaps sign all of them. Or maybe not -- we're not talking about endless money, just an equal platform of economic opportunity for each team. Still, let's get the Seagers together. It would be easier on their parents.
50. Zack Greinke
Perfect-world fit: Kansas City Royals
This is similar to the Verlander fit. It's another full-circle thing -- the Royals amped up their previous rebuild back in 2010 when they traded Greinke, their homegrown ace, to Milwaukee. Eleven years later, the Royals are still the team for which Greinke has thrown the most innings, struck out the most batters and won the most games. Greinke's Cy Young Award also came during his time in Kansas City.
There are ample, less-sentimental reasons for this reunion as well. Like the Tigers, the Royals have a young starting staff with loads of upside. Greinke could support that staff with veteran stability and provide plenty of examples for the youngsters on how to get hitters out without pure velocity. Also, Greinke could benefit from the Royals' solid team defense which features a pair of Gold Glove outfielders in Michael A. Taylor and Andrew Benintendi.