Back in our MLB season preview, I made a bold prediction for all 30 teams. Now, I don't like to make silly, outrageous bold predictions -- you know, things like the Giants winning 107 games, or Robbie Ray winning a Cy Young Award, or Tyler Gilbert throwing a no-hitter in his first career start, or Jorge Soler winning World Series MVP honors (for the Braves!). No, I prefer to stick to bold-yet-realistic predictions.
Let's look back and see how I did, grade each prediction and then see what it means for 2022. We start with our one A+ grade ...
Philadelphia Phillies
The prediction: Bryce Harper has a huge season with 44 home runs and a .430 OBP, but Joe Girardi has to churn through five closers and the Phillies miss the postseason.
Not bad, not bad at all. Harper hit 35 home runs with a .429 OBP and looks like he'll take home his second MVP trophy. That certainly qualifies as a huge season. The Phillies had four relievers finish with at least four saves and two more with two apiece, so they never did settle on a closer. And, yes, they missed the postseason.
Grade: A+
Spin forward: Hey, at least the Phillies had a winning record! OK, it was 82-80. Despite Harper's heroics, the offense was just middle of the pack. It's likely to be much of the same cast of characters, although a new shortstop would help, so the Phillies once again appear to be stuck in neutral.
Texas Rangers
The prediction: Joey Gallo slugs 45 home runs, but hits .205 and sets the single-season strikeout record with 225.
Dang it. Gallo hit .199 with 38 home runs and struck out 213 times, coming close to the strikeout record. Mark Reynolds, rest easy, your 223-whiff season still sits atop the leaderboard.
Grade: A
Spin forward: Gallo's partial season in 2019, when he hit .253 and slugged .598 in 70 games, looks like a fluke. In his other seasons he has hit .209, .206, .181 and .199. The Yankees gave up some intriguing prospects to acquire Gallo and he was a disaster for them, hitting .160. Yes, he draws walks and plays good defense to go with his home runs, but a .160 batting average isn't going to cut it in the Bronx.
Miami Marlins
The prediction: Rookie Trevor Rogers makes the All-Star team and finishes with a 3.02 ERA.
Hey, Rogers not only made the All-Star team, he also beat that 3.02 ERA prediction with a 2.64 mark.
Grade: A
Spin forward: The Marlins limited the lefty's second-half innings to cap him at 133 for the season, but he has a chance to become one of the best southpaws in the league. There's a lot of soft contact here, a good feel for mixing his fastball and changeup, plus the velocity (94.5 mph) and high spin on his fastball to blow away hitters when needed. He's a good one.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The prediction: Will win 110 games (and tie the NL record of the 1909 Pirates).
They fell four games short with 106 wins, but their Pythagorean record based on runs scored and allowed was 109-53 -- close! Still, it was a remarkable regular-season record given only three pitchers made at least 20 starts, Cody Bellinger was terrible, Dustin May missed almost the entire season and Mookie Betts and Corey Seager both missed big chunks of action. Note: I did not pick the Dodgers to win the World Series.
Grade: A-
Spin forward: Given all the big-name free agents the Dodgers have -- Seager, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Chris Taylor, Kenley Jansen, Corey Knebel -- it could be a sizable turnover on the roster. They might still be the favorite in the NL West when the dust settles, but you won't be seeing predictions of 110 wins -- maybe not even 100, as the 2019-2021 peak will be difficult to match.
Milwaukee Brewers
The prediction: Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes combine for 35 wins and a sub-3.00 ERA and the Brewers win the NL Central.
Burnes finished 11-5 with a 2.43 ERA and Woodruff went 9-10 with a 2.56 ERA. Burnes, it seems fair to say, was even more dominant than his ERA suggests with a 1.63 FIP that was the lowest since Pedro Martinez in 1999. The Brewers also won the division, even though the Woodruff and Burnes duo combined for just 20 wins rather than 35.
Grade: A-
Spin forward: There was absolutely nothing fluky about their performances. They ranked 3-4 in lowest batting average allowed and first and third in lowest slugging percentage, with the Statcast advanced metrics like expected batting average and slugging lining up. They're going to be really good again in 2022 and with better run support they should do better than 20-15.
Toronto Blue Jays
The prediction: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette both make the All-Star team and Guerrero wins the Home Run Derby.
Both did make their first All-Star team, although Guerrero elected not to participate in the Derby -- but he would have won if he had! Still, this prediction doesn't feel so bold in retrospect, projecting two highly touted young players to improve. Predicting a potential Triple Crown for Guerrero -- he ended up tied for first in home runs, fourth in batting average (eight points behind Yuli Gurriel) and fifth in RBIs (10 behind Salvador Perez) -- would have been the A+ prediction.
Grade: A-
Spin forward: You want a bolder prediction for 2022? Guerrero and Bichette rank as the two best players in the American League. For Guerrero, it's just about maintaining his gains, most notably an improved launch angle to go with his already superb plate discipline. For Bichette, who hit .298 with 29 home runs and led the AL in hits in his first full season, it's about improving his plate discipline (he ranked in the third percentile in chase rate) and improving his defense.
Tampa Bay Rays
The prediction: Randy Arozarena wins Rookie of the Year and hits 32 home runs with 22 steals.
I guess this wasn't really that bold of pick either. Predicting Rays catchers to lead the majors in home runs, runs and RBIs -- THAT would have been bold. Arozarena hit .274/.356/.459 with 20 home runs and 20 steals, although he is the odds-on favorite to win Rookie of the Year.
Grade: B+
Spin forward: More of the same. Arozarena probably doesn't get the ball in the air enough to be a 30-homer guy and he also had a sizable platoon split (he crushed lefties), so rookie left-handed hitter Josh Lowe could eat into some of his playing time.
Seattle Mariners
The prediction: Ty France hits .337 to win the AL batting crown.
OK, .337 was a little ambitious, but France did hit .291, good for 11th in the AL batting race. In fact, take out the 10 games at the beginning of May when he tried to play through some left wrist inflammation and went 2-for-34 before finally going on the IL for 10 days, and he hit .305. This was a worthy prediction given France wasn't on too many radars before the season.
Grade: B+
Spin forward: France played mostly third base in the minors and played a lot of second base early on before Evan White's injury opened up first base. He played well there (plus-5 defensive runs saved) and while his power isn't ideal for a first baseman, it looks like the best fit for him in 2022 -- when he'll hit .300.
New York Yankees
The prediction: Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge both play 140 games and combine for 90 home runs.
Judge played 148 games and Stanton just missed with 139, but they combined for 74 home runs -- not 90.
Grade: B
Spin forward: This is why Yankees fans should be a little worried about 2022. The two big guys were healthy and productive and the offense was still just 10th in the AL in runs scored. Can you expect those two to average 144 games between them in 2022? If they miss more time like they did in 2019 and 2020, the offense is going to have to find runs somewhere else.
Washington Nationals
The prediction: Juan Soto leads the NL in batting average, OBP and slugging percentage for the second season in a row.
He hit .313/.465/.534, leading easily in OBP, but finishing second in batting average and seventh in slugging percentage as he hit "just" 29 home runs. This was due to a slow start in the power department: Through the end of May, Soto had just four home runs in 40 games, with an early shoulder injury perhaps affecting him. He slugged .589 the rest of the season and over his final 78 games hit a remarkable .352/.527/.644.
Grade: B
Spin forward: When Soto hit 34 home runs in 2019, his average launch angle was 12.5 degrees. It was down to 5.8 degrees in 2021. It's possible he'll never be a big launch-angle guy (he also hit just 20 doubles), so I'm not 100% convinced he's going to be a 40-homer guy. He doesn't have to be; he'll still enter 2022 as the best all-around hitter in the game.
Houston Astros
The prediction: Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and Kyle Tucker each hit 30 home runs as the Astros reclaim their AL West title.
Alvarez (33) and Tucker (30) reached the barrier, with Alvarez bouncing back after knee surgery in 2020 and Tucker establishing himself as a star, but Correa (26) and Bregman (12) did not. Correa did have an outstanding all-around season with 7.3 WAR and the Astros did win the AL West, but Bregman suffered a quad injury, played just 91 games and then had wrist surgery on Monday, which perhaps helps explains his lack of power (especially in the postseason, when he hit just one home run in 16 games).
Grade: B-
Spin forward: Correa wanders off into free agency, likely to be wearing a new uniform next season. The big question concerns Bregman's future after two injury-filled seasons. He has a 114 OPS+ over 2020-21, down from 162 in 2019 when he hit 41 home runs. His ground-ball rate has gone way up, from 31.7% in 2019 to 41.5%, although his hard-hit rate (percentage of balls at 95-plus mph) held steady at 38% in 2019, 38.1% in 2021. The Astros say Bregman will be ready for spring training after his surgery.
Detroit Tigers
The prediction: Call up Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene and Matt Manning after the All-Star break and they finish over .500 in the second half.
This would have been an ambitious promotion for Torkelson and Greene. Both did rake in the minors, but the Tigers played it safe and both finished the season in Triple-A. Manning did get called up, but struggled with a 5.80 ERA over 18 starts. Guess what though? The Tigers did finish over .500 in the second half, going 37-34, so some good things are finally starting to happen in Detroit.
Grade: B-
Spin forward: Torkelson and Greene enter 2022 as consensus top-10 prospects in the minors after Torkelson hit .267/.383/.552 with 30 home runs across three levels while Greene hit .301/.387/.534 with 24 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A as a 20-year-old. Depending on what happens with a new CBA, both could begin the season in the big leagues. Manning's low strikeout rate (6.0 per nine innings) suggests some refinement back in Triple-A might be in order.
Los Angeles Angels
The prediction: Shohei Ohtani hits .275 with 31 home runs and goes 11-4 with a 3.68 ERA ... but Mike Trout wins AL MVP.
Ohtani hit .257 with 46 home runs and went 9-2 with a 3.18 ERA. He'll win MVP honors. Trout got off to an outstanding start but played just 36 games after a season-ending calf injury that never healed. So this was a pretty good prediction for Ohtani, if slightly low on both sides of the ball. It would be an interesting debate if he would still be the MVP favorite with my predicted numbers instead of his actual numbers that made him the story of the season.
Grade: C+
Spin forward: If you're the Angels and you're making your projections for 2022, do you expect Ohtani to do this again? It's worth noting that his OPS fell from 1.062 in the first half to .839 in the second half. I'm actually more convinced he'll repeat on the mound than at the plate, although having a healthy Trout and Anthony Rendon will help.
Atlanta Braves
The prediction: Ronald Acuna Jr. leads the majors with 52 home runs.
Acuna had bashed 24 home runs in 82 games when he went down for the season on July 10 with a torn ACL. The Braves had played 88 games at the time, so his home run pace was 44, and he ranked fifth in the majors (Ohtani led with 33). A solid prediction, but it has to be downgraded because of the injury.
Grade: C
Spin forward: The original estimates placed Acuna's return at nine or 10 months after the injury, so optimistically the Braves are looking at a mid-April timetable. Aside from accounting for a possible longer delay on his return, the Braves have other issues in with their outfield: What will happen with Marcell Ozuna, who still has three years left on his contract? Will Cristian Pache or Drew Waters be an answer in center? Do they look to re-sign postseason hero Eddie Rosario?
Cleveland Indians
The prediction: Shane Bieber wins his second straight Cy Young Award.
Injuries stink. Bieber missed three months with a right shoulder strain and finished 7-4 with a 3.17 ERA and 134 K's in 96⅔ innings. If you double his 16 starts to 32, you get 14-8 with 268 strikeouts in nearly 200 innings. That would have put him in the Cy Young race that Robbie Ray will probably win. The last AL pitcher to win consecutive Cy Young Awards remains Pedro Martinez in 1999-2000.
Grade: C
Spin forward: Bieber returned at the end of September to make two abbreviated three-inning starts, so he should be all set to go for 2022. You do worry about any shoulder injury and the three-month stint on the IL suggests this wasn't just a minor issue.
Chicago White Sox
The prediction: Lucas Giolito becomes first 20-game winner for White Sox since 2003 and finishes second in the Cy Young voting.
Giolito got off to a slow start, thanks in part to a one-inning, eight-run outing on April 19, and his ERA stood at 4.97 through his first eight starts. He was really good the rest of the way with a 3.09 ERA over his final 23 games and finished 11-9 with a 3.53 ERA and 201 strikeouts in 178⅔ innings. He won't pick up any Cy Young votes and he pitched in the shadow of Lance Lynn and Carlos Rodon, but he proved his 2019 breakout was for real.
Grade: C
Spin forward: His strikeout rate was down a bit from 2019 and 2020, but it was still a strong 28% and his other markers remain strong as well: 83rd percentile in hard-hit rate, 87th percentile in swing-and-miss rate. His four-seam fastball was hit a little harder and he adjusted by throwing it less often (43.9% of the time compared to 55% in 2019). He projects as one of the AL's best starters for 2022.
Colorado Rockies
The prediction: C.J. Cron finishes with more home runs than Nolan Arenado.
Arenado hit 34 home runs for the Cardinals while Cron hit 28 for the Rockies. So missed that. BUT ... Cron actually had a little better offensive season, with a park-adjusted wRC+ of 127 to Arenado's 113. Arenado's offense certainly didn't crater in St. Louis, but it was his lowest wRC+ since 2014 (not including 2020, when he played through a shoulder injury). Cron's .281/.375/.530 line would fit in nicely with Arenado's Colorado years.
Grade: C
Spin forward: The Rockies signed Cron to a two-year, $14.5 million extension in September, banking that he can repeat his best season. And maybe he can, if his improved walk rate is for real. Cron's walk rate (11.0%) ranked in the 77th percentile -- this from a guy who entered the season with a career rate of just 5.7%. If he can repeat that .375 OBP, the Rockies will be happy.
Boston Red Sox
The prediction: Rafael Devers becomes the first player since 1936 with 60 doubles in a season.
Yes, that was big and bold, but Devers did hit 54 doubles in 2019 when he littered balls off the Green Monster ala David Ortiz. Devers did rebound from a poor COVID season with 38 home runs and 37 doubles and ranked fourth in the AL extra-base hits, but he fell way short of 50 doubles, let alone 60.
Grade: C-
Spin forward: Devers' strikeout rate was just 17% in 2019, 27% in 2020 and 21.5% in 2021. He did improve his chase rate from the prior two seasons, but swung and missed more than he did in 2019. It seemed like he was selling out a little more for power. I still think he can be a .300 hitter like he was in 2019, so maybe there's hope for another 50-double season.
St. Louis Cardinals
The prediction: The Cardinals finish 80-82 for their first losing record since 2007.
Well, they were 71-69 before the 17-game winning streak in September. They won 90, with a Pythagorean record of 85-77. Maybe we should have forecast the Cubs' fire sale into the Cardinals' final record.
Grade: C-
Spin forward: That's 14 consecutive winning seasons with nine playoff appearances. The NL Central should help keep that streak intact in 2022: The Pirates are bad, the Cubs are rebuilding and the Reds might go backward.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The prediction: Ketel Marte bounces back and scores and drives in 100 runs.
Only Luis Gonzalez and Paul Goldschmidt had ever done that for the Diamondbacks. Marte did rebound from his power outage of 2020 and hit .318 with a 143 OPS+, albeit in just 90 games. He scored 52 runs and drove in 50, so his full-season pace would have left him slightly under in both categories.
Grade: C-
Spin forward: Marte has three years left on his contract at $8.4 million for 2022 and team options for $8 million and $10 million the following two seasons -- a bargain for the Diamondbacks if he can stay healthy. Still, with the team coming off 110 losses, Marte's name will be a hot one on the rumor mill. Marte's defensive metrics in center field were terrible, so while there are teams that need a center fielder, his best position moving forward might be left field or even a return to second base.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The prediction: Ke'Bryan Hayes hits .302, wins NL Rookie of the Year and snaps Nolan Arenado's streak of eight straight Gold Gloves.
Man, injuries killed my predictions. Another player who missed significant time, Hayes' season was mildly disappointing as he hit .257/.316/.373 with just six home runs -- barely more than the five he hit in 24 games in September of 2020. His defense, however, was outstanding with plus-16 defensive runs saved -- best among major league third basemen even though he played just 96 games. While Arenado did end up winning his ninth straight Gold Glove, Hayes won the Fielding Bible Award for third base and has a strong case as the new standard bearer at the hot corner.
Grade: C-
Spin forward: Let's cut Hayes some slack on the hitting. He missed April and May with a wrist injury, which can linger. He hurt his hand in August slamming his helmet in the dugout and then missed the final week with another wrist injury and a cyst on his left hand. His plan was to take two months off with no swings and hope to be healthy for spring training. If so, look for much better offensive numbers.
San Francisco Giants
The prediction: Mike Yastrzemski has a 7.2-WAR season, best for the Giants since Buster Posey in 2012.
Just think how many games the Giants would have won if he had met this prediction! Yastrzemski had finished eighth in the MVP in 2020, when he put up 2.6 WAR in just 54 games -- thus the optimistic belief he could do that over 150 games. He hit .224/.311/.456 with 25 home runs and 28 doubles -- hey, he had more extra-base hits than Juan Soto -- and came in at 2.5 WAR. An above-average player, but far from an MVP candidate.
Grade: C-
Spin forward: The Giants will continue to mix-and-match in the outfield, although if they re-sign Kris Bryant, he would probably get most of his games in the outfield with Evan Longoria at third base. Yastrzemski hit just .170 against lefties in 2021, so he projects as the strong side of a platoon in right field, where he's a solid defender.
Baltimore Orioles
The prediction: Trey Mancini represents the Orioles at the All-Star Game ... and then gets traded to Cleveland.
So the A+ version of this prediction would have been Cedric Mullins making the All-Star Game, which I guarantee you nobody predicted. But Mancini did represent the Orioles in the Home Run Derby, so he did have a feel-good comeback after missing 2020 with colon cancer. He was not, however, traded to Cleveland (which traded players away at the deadline rather than looking to contend).
Grade: C-
Spin forward: Mancini's trade value is pretty minimal coming off an 0.8-WAR season as he fell off in the second half (.660 OPS after .853 in the first half). As he continues to rebuild his strength, the Orioles can hope he repeats his 2019 numbers (35 home runs) and provide a nice power punch with Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle and rookie catcher Adley Rutschman.
Chicago Cubs
The prediction: They sign Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo to long-term deals, but trade Kris Bryant to the Nationals.
Nope. They ended up trading all three and Bryant went to the Giants, not the Nationals (who conducted their own fire sale). Why try to contend when you can just build some hotels and restaurants around Wrigley Field rather than field a good baseball team?
Grade: D+
Spin forward: After the 71-91 season, which included a 20-36 record the final two months, owner Tom Ricketts sent a letter to Cubs fans saying, "We have the resources necessary to compete in 2022 and beyond, and we will use them." Cubs fans have the doubts about that. If the Brewers regress, the NL Central could be wide open, but the Cubs have A LOT of holes to fill, especially in the rotation.
Kansas City Royals
The prediction: Jorge Soler leads the AL with 47 home runs.
That was a typo! I meant to say Salvador Perez. Alas, Soler hit just .192 with the Royals, found himself in Atlanta ... and you might have heard about his exploits in the World Series. He finished with 27 home runs, plus three more in the Fall Classic to win World Series MVP honors.
Grade: D
Spin forward: Soler is a free agent and if the universal DH becomes a thing -- and the Braves decide to part ways with Ozuna -- I could see Soler ending up back in Atlanta as a DH.
San Diego Padres
The prediction: Win 100 games, reach the NLCS.
The Padres had never won 100 games in franchise history -- and they still haven't. With a 79-83 record, their last back-to-back winning seasons remain the four-year stretch from 2004 to 2007. To be fair, the Padres were 34-20 and in first place on May 30 -- that's a 102-win pace -- before the multitude of pitching injuries began to set in. Even then, however, there were other on-field disappointments, so even given better health it does feel like 100 was probably not in the books.
Grade: D-
Spin forward: The Padres bring pretty much everybody back for 2022, but they will be one of the most difficult teams to project. They need to improve their rotation depth and getting Mike Clevinger back will help, but their farm system has been depleted to construct the current roster. Hiring Bob Melvin as manager is a terrific coup. Still, the hype will be much quieter next spring.
New York Mets
The prediction: Jacob deGrom wins Cy Young and MVP honors -- and then pitches the Mets to the World Series title.
Cringe. This looked pretty good on July 7, when the Mets beat the Brewers behind deGrom, who was 7-2 with a 1.08 ERA and on his way to a legendary season. Heck, we were debating whether he could best Bob Gibson's 1.12 ERA. He was the clear Cy Young front-runner and probably the MVP front-runner with the Mets in first place.
As for the rest of the season ... well, at least the prediction wasn't quite as bad as what the New York Times wrote in 1939: "The problem with television is that the people must sit with their eyes glued on a screen; the average American family hasn't time for it."
Grade: D-
Spin forward: What a mess. Nobody wants the head of baseball operations job. They don't have a manager. They don't have a general manager. They do have an expensive shortstop who hit .230. And does anybody really know how many innings deGrom will pitch in 2022? Note to self: Never, ever, ever, ever pick the Mets again. Don't get clever. Don't overthink it. Don't look at Steve Cohen's bank account. Don't do it.
Oakland Athletics
The prediction: Scuffling at the trade deadline, the A's trade Matt Chapman to the Mets.
The A's were actually the second wild card at the deadline, so they weren't scuffling and they didn't trade Chapman.
Grade: F
Spin forward: The A's didn't finish strong and neither did Chapman -- he hit .210/.314/.403, drawing 80 walks and hitting 27 home runs, but striking out 202 times. This is Three True Outcomes to the extreme and if the A's are to get back to the postseason, Chapman needs to find his 2018-19 level of play.
Cincinnati Reds
The prediction: Luis Castillo becomes the seventh pitcher to toss two no-hitters in a season.
Maybe predicting one no-hitter would have sufficed? There were a record nine nine-inning no-hitters in 2021, including two combined ones, but Castillo didn't pitch any of them. The bigger point was that Castillo was going to make The Leap. Instead, he got off to an abysmal start with a 1-8 record and 7.22 ERA through May, on his way to leading the NL with 16 losses. Teammate Wade Miley, however, pitched a no-hitter.
Grade: F
Spin forward: Castillo was much better after the first two months, posting a 2.73 ERA over his final 22 starts. We saw the same inconsistency from him in 2019, when it was a great first half and mediocre second half, so who knows if he will ever put it all together over six months.
Minnesota Twins
The prediction: Snap their 18-game postseason losing streak and reach the World Series.
The Twins were never in it, finishing 73-89 and last in the AL Central, so it's easy to forget the high expectations for them at the start of the season, coming off back-to-back division titles, including 101 wins in 2019 and a .600 winning percentage in 2020. The season was especially disappointing, because unlike the Padres, it wasn't even about a rash of injuries (although Byron Buxton's was a big one). The Twins were just bad.
Grade: F-
Spin forward: No team's immediate future took a bigger turn for the worse in 2021 than Minnesota's. Now 2022 and even 2023 look like rebuilding seasons. It's not a hopeless situation, especially on the offensive side of things, but the pitching staff needs a complete makeover.