The World Series is over. The sport's collective bargaining agreement expires in less than four weeks. Baseball could shut down for the foreseeable future. You have questions. I have answers.
Why is this Sunday an important day?
The MLB offseason really starts Sunday. More than 200 players are free agents now, but they can't sign with new teams until Sunday. Decisions on options -- club and player -- are due by that day, too. And teams that plan to extend a qualifying offer to free agents must do so by 5 p.m. ET on Sunday.
When will players actually start signing with new teams this offseason?
There should be some movement in November, especially among players who want some semblance of certainty. Multiple officials see a two-pronged market this winter: a relatively low-impact one pre-lockout, and a frenzied post-lockout rush.
So, uh, did you just say there's going to be a lockout?
Put it this way: I've talked with a lot of people around the sport, and literally every single one believes that once the clock turns from 11:59 p.m. on Dec. 1 to 12 a.m. on Dec. 2, the owners will lock out the players.
A deal to keep the sport running is not impossible. It's just seen as highly unlikely.
What happens if Dec. 1 comes and goes without a new CBA in place?
A lockout is a leverage tool utilized by management during a labor dispute. It would freeze all major league roster activity. No trades that involve players on 40-man rosters. No major league contracts signed in free agency. Baseball's first work stoppage in more than a quarter-century.
What about the winter meetings?
They would likely go on, serving as a hub for minor league teams as well as manufacturers and other equipment vendors. But the major league part? Nope. Canceled, too.
Is there any reason players would benefit from trying to jump the market by signing before the CBA expires?
For some players, it certainly makes sense. If a veteran believes he's not certain to get a guaranteed big league deal and a team offers one, sure, he should take the bird in hand. Further, some teams might be floating offers that feel aggressive and appeal to players with the thought that the players will make significant-enough economic gains in the new basic agreement to make the terms signed before it pale in comparison.
There's even a chance one of the big-name free agents gets what he wanted out of the market and signs, fearful that in a deluge before or even during spring training, he'd be left standing with the music playing and no chair.
What does the looming CBA deadline mean for the trade market?
Because of all the roster manipulation that's going to happen, the trade market automatically will operate at standard speed before Dec. 1. Two set-in-stone deadlines make that so.
On Nov. 19, teams need to add Rule 5 draft-eligible prospects to their 40-man rosters to protect them from selection ... even though a Rule 5 draft would not happen during a lockout. Still, during the process of protecting players, teams with true 40-man roster crunches -- too many good players to keep -- are always open for business and ready to trade. Two teams seen to have genuine 40-man crunches: Tampa Bay and Cleveland.
The next day is Dec. 1, when the CBA expires at midnight. It's the tender deadline date, which means if a team plans to keep a player, it must tender -- or offer -- him a contract. Players who are going to be non-tendered often wind up on the trade market in the days before, with teams looking to salvage anything instead of just sending them out into free agency, where they go after being non-tendered.
What will be the most talked-about topics this offseason as negotiations get going?
Core economics: Players are livid about the proportion of money they receive these days and have made economics and competitiveness the tentpoles of their position.
On-field issues: MLB wants to institute significant changes to baseball, which this year averaged 3 hours, 10 minutes per nine-inning game.
Expanded playoffs: The league wants them. The players might accept them.
Lockout: See above.
Rob Manfred's legacy: Even though Manfred has steered clear of the nitty-gritty negotiations thus far, he would be the commissioner overseeing the implementation of the fourth lockout in major league history -- and the first since a 32-day version in 1990. Other power players: Tony Clark, the executive director of the MLB Players Association; Bruce Meyer, the lead negotiator for the players; and Dan Halem, the deputy commissioner who handles talks for the league.
Enough about the CBA, who are the stars of this free-agent class?
At the top are Carlos Correa and Corey Seager, two all-world shortstops entering free agency less than a year after two other shortstops, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Francisco Lindor, signed for $340 million and $341 million. Also available at the position: Marcus Semien, Trevor Story and Javier Baez.
Other big names: newly minted World Series champ Freddie Freeman, infielder/outfielder Kris Bryant, slugger Nick Castellanos, starting pitchers Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander and Noah Syndergaard.
Which stars are going to be the toughest free agents to assess?
Kind of all of them? The only ones who might sign soon are Verlander and Syndergaard, who could receive -- and potentially accept -- the qualifying offer.
But with Correa, teams will ask about his long-term health. For Seager, the questions will be about his health and position. Semien will be age (31); Story the Coors Field Factor; Baez strikeouts and consistency. For the pitchers, it's Scherzer's arm, Ray and Gausman's lack of past performance; Kershaw, Verlander and Syndergaard's arm health. Stroman is probably the most WYSIWYG of all.
What's the qualifying offer?
Teams can offer a one-year, $18.4 million contract to a player who:
a) Is a free agent who has not been offered a qualifying offer before, and
b) Played the entire previous regular season with one team
Because Bryant and Baez were traded, they're out. Because Scherzer was offered one in 2014, he's free, too. If the player accepts the deal, he is signed for 2022. If he rejects it, the team with which he signs loses at least one draft pick, making it something of an anchor on free agents. Of this class, here is how evaluators see the current QO market:
Will receive: Correa, Seager, Semien, Story, Freeman, Ray
Likely to receive: Castellanos, Syndergaard, Chris Taylor
Could receive: Michael Conforto, Jon Gray, Carlos Rodon, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Belt, Anthony DeSclafani, Raisel Iglesias
Complicated: Verlander, Kershaw
The complications with Verlander: He's coming off Tommy John surgery. The complications with Kershaw: He's coming off an arm injury -- and, if he shows any inclination to leave, perhaps the Dodgers would not saddle him with a QO and harm his market as a thanks for all he has meant to the organization.
Who are some names fans might be forgetting about in this year's free-agent class?
Taylor was outstanding for the Dodgers in October, his 1.202 OPS second only behind Kiké Hernandez's 1.260. He's potentially in line for a Ben Zobrist-type deal.
Starling Marte is the best center fielder available, though there will be some good ones to get in trades, too.
Kyle Schwarber has finally started hitting like the guy the Cubs anticipated when they chose him with the No. 4 pick in 2014.
Jorge Soler, Eddie Rosario and Joc Pederson, playoff heroes for the world champion Braves, will find much heartier markets after October.
Kenley Jansen's stuff came back with a vengeance. Is it enough for the Dodgers to bring him back at a hefty price despite their bullpen talent?
Is there a Nolan Arenado-type who could be available in a trade -- a player whose salary, team status or potential return makes him available ... and immediately one of the top names who could change teams?
There is no franchise player signed to a huge contract whose deal takes all sorts of hoops to jump through. On the contrary, just about everyone on this list has a smaller contract and could have wide-ranging suitors:
Byron Buxton, Minnesota
Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs
Josh Hader, Milwaukee
Ketel Marte, Arizona
Matt Olson, Oakland
Which teams are going to be big spenders this winter?
This is a non-exhaustive list, and some might pivot based on the CBA, season-ticket renewals suffering because of the potential work stoppage and other possible changes. But the expectation for now is that the New York Mets, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants are prepared to be aggressive with free agents this winter.
Speaking of: What are the Yankees and Mets going to do?
The Yankees want a shortstop. They can add one of those.
The Mets want a president of baseball operations. Half the people they ask about don't even want to interview.
Perhaps if free agency were normal this year, the Mets would be moving with much greater urgency. But the likelihood of the top-shelf guys waiting for a new labor deal gives the Mets the time they need to find the person whose mandate could be spending hundreds of millions of dollars.
Who are some under-the-radar or not-the-usual-suspect teams that could go big?
The Tigers and Rangers. Both want a shortstop. Detroit is closer to contention, with first baseman Spencer Torkelson and outfielder Riley Greene on the cusp of the big leagues and talented young starting pitching already there. Texas is in the midst of an overhaul, and few, if any, players on its big league roster are likely to be there five years down the road. To get premium free agents, the Rangers might need to overpay in years as much as dollars.
Will we see any other managers or GMs fired or on the move now that the postseason is over?
Probably not. Dusty Baker is sticking around Houston. Even though Dave Roberts enters 2022 as a lame duck with the Dodgers, there aren't signs he's going anywhere. (Though, admittedly, there weren't any in St. Louis before Mike Shildt was fired, either.) Currently there are two managerial jobs open: the Mets and A's. The only available job running baseball operations is the Mets' opening.
What did we learn from the Braves winning it all?
Men should not be afraid to wear pearls.
And aside from that?
Don't be afraid to upgrade. The Braves were not good in mid-July and not any better after the July 30 deadline and then, just like that, they took off. Yes, they had a good foundation in place, and, yes, they were underachieving. But -- especially if the playoffs expand -- any .500 team with a positive run differential and a star or two in place has zero excuse not to improve its team. While nobody could've prophesied Alex Anthopoulos going 5-for-5 on trades, it illustrates that a championship does not necessarily cost big bucks at the deadline. Just some intelligence, guile and luck.
When will the lockout end?
This is a complete guess, but around mid-February makes sense. Players don't want to miss games. Owners don't want to miss games. And the reality of lockouts is that in all of baseball history, never has a lockout led to a single regular-season game missed.
So if the parties agree that losing games is disastrous to everyone and recognize that a transaction flurry is the way to go and want to give players and teams time to actually prepare for that season ... a mid-February agreement leads to two weeks of free-agent-and-trade excitement before players report the first week in March, play about 15 spring training games starting the second week and eventually are ready for Opening Day on March 31.
This is an optimistic view. It could last longer. It could be worse. But until the fights turn dirty, the chasms expose themselves and the ugliness endures in plain sight, it's worth holding out hope that baseball's streak of not losing regular-season games to a lockout remains intact.