Jeff Passan's early 2021-22 MLB free-agency tiers

The free agent class of 2021-22 is one of the deepest and most talented in years, filled with a historically great group of shortstops, a potpourri of pitchers and a grab bag of midlevel players who won't break the bank but will help contenders and ascenders alike.

It's also arriving at a fascinating time for the sport: on the verge of a potential lockout that could freeze transactions for months. Baseball's collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, and while the league and players' association have engaged in conversations on a new deal, the possibility of the current basic agreement expiring and prompting a work stoppage is very real.

This makes the period between the end of the World Series and Dec. 1 entirely fascinating. How aggressive will teams be? How willing to strike a deal before the new terms governing the game will players be? Multiple contract extensions are expected in the coming weeks, sources told ESPN, showing a willingness by both parties to barter before anyone knows where payrolls are likely to end up. At the same time, during a lockout everything related to major league transactions would be frozen. No signings. No trades. No movement on the big league side.

Still, with the season winding down, it's an appropriate time to assess what the market -- whenever it gets going -- will look like. ESPN identified the players expected to generate the most interest on the open market this winter and split them into five tiers. Arbitration-eligible players not tendered a contract will only deepen the list, but for now here is a primer on the free agents expected to be available this winter. Players in each tier are listed alphabetically, with their position, current team and Opening Day 2022 age.

Top of the market

Carlos Correa, SS, Houston, 27: Correa chose a brilliant time to have his best all-around season in nearly half a decade. He has played 144 games, slashed .279/.365/.478 and been worth 6.8 wins above replacement by Baseball-Reference's calculation and 5.3 by FanGraphs'. Among his age, production and positional value, he's in line for a $200 million-plus deal.

Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers, 27: The most talented player in the class, Seager missed nearly three months this season with a broken bone in his hand after being hit by a fastball. He has been an even better version of himself when he has been on the field, walking in a career-best 12.2% of plate appearances and striking out just 15.9% of the time. His .292/.385/.477 line is elite. His glove at shortstop is more than serviceable. And whether it's with the Dodgers or elsewhere, he's primed to cash in.

Tier 1

Javier Baez, IF, New York Mets, 29: Since returning from the injured list Aug. 22, Baez has been one of the five best offensive players in baseball. In 134 plate appearances, he's hitting .353/.425/.597 with seven home runs, 18 RBIs and -- yes -- 11 walks. Baez is always going to strike out a lot. And yet here he is near the end of the season slashing .269/.323/.502 with his typically excellent defense, dynamic baserunning and 4 WAR to show for it. Teams may not like what he doesn't do, but they know what he does do more than makes up for it.

Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, San Francisco, 30: Bryant won't get the $300 million that once upon a time looked like a fait accompli, but he's still going to be a team's splashy signing of the winter.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta, 32: The expectation is that Freeman isn't going anywhere and that he'll wind up with a deal better than Paul Goldschmidt's to stay in Atlanta. He's on a Hall of Fame trajectory and remains an elite hitter. The only thing missing at this point is a championship, and with the core Atlanta has, it's the sort of place he can win one.

Kevin Gausman, SP, San Francisco, 31: First-half Gausman was going to be the highest-paid pitcher this winter. Even as his second-half ERA jumped three full points over the 1.73 he put up in the first half, his stuff -- led by the best splitter in baseball -- is top-notch and will entice any team ready to spend on a top-of-the-rotation right-hander.

Robbie Ray, SP, Toronto, 30: The American League Cy Young favorite has made himself more money than any pitcher this season. Until this year, he was all possibility: left-handed, lots of strikeouts, oozing talent. He's still a lefty, still punching guys out (a big-league-best 244) and now cashing in on that talent, with an AL-best 188 innings, an AL-best 2.68 ERA and a deal well into the $100 million range awaiting after signing for one year and $8 million in Toronto.

Max Scherzer, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers, 37: Scherzer is so good it makes age irrelevant. So long as he stays healthy this postseason, the question is just how much he's going to get per year on a short-term deal. Trevor Bauer's deal with the Dodgers last winter was essentially two years for $85 million. Scherzer, coming off a season in which he posted a career-best ERA and WHIP? He'll get more -- and he deserves it.

Marcus Semien, IF, Toronto, 31: Semien has made himself more money than anyone, period. His market last winter didn't materialize, and he took a one-year, $18 million pillow deal from the Blue Jays. His 6.5 FanGraphs WAR and 7.2 Baseball-Reference WAR both rank fourth in all of baseball. He can play shortstop and has proved adept at second base this season. He's regarded as a model leader and clubhouse figure. Teams that passed on him last year won't make the same mistake again.

Trevor Story, SS, Colorado, 29: While Story hasn't put up his typical numbers, he's still coveted by a number of teams for his raw power, his elite glove and his baserunning acumen. It's always a risk signing players who have spent their careers raking at Coors Field -- and Story's .206 batting average away from Coors Field won't do him any favors, even though it's due in large part to horrendous ball-in-play luck. But the market for him is guaranteed to be robust.

Note: Nolan Arenado (opt-out) and Jose Ramirez (club option), who would otherwise be in this tier, are expected to remain with St. Louis and Cleveland, respectively.

Tier 2

Nick Castellanos, OF/DH, Cincinnati, 30: Castellanos, who can opt out of the final two years and $34 million of his deal with the Reds, will be the best pure bat available. The only thing keeping him from Tier 1 is his glove. But with the universal DH expected to be part of the new CBA, he'll have suitors from both leagues clamoring to pencil him in the heart of their order.

Nelson Cruz, DH, Tampa Bay, 41: Part of the allure of Cruz is that he'll require only a one-year deal. And while his on-base percentage has cratered since being dealt to the Rays, he has still hit 30-plus home runs for a seventh consecutive full season and the leadership he brings to a clubhouse is vaunted and valuable.

Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers, 34: The best pitcher of his generation finally hits free agency. For someone his age, Kershaw has plenty of mileage on the odometer. And after three consecutive seasons with a sub-2.00 FIP, he's working on his fifth in a row over 3.00. But he's still Clayton Kershaw. Still brilliant on the mound. Still a vicious competitor. And still, whether it's in Dodger Blue or a new color, going to represent a huge value add.

Starling Marte, CF, Oakland, 33: He was the last cut from Tier 1, and there's an excellent argument that he belongs there. Marte is walking more than ever, batting a career-high .311, and he leads MLB with 45 stolen bases -- at a 90% success rate, no less. He isn't the best center fielder, but in a market with a paucity of players at the position, he stands out.

J.D. Martinez, DH, Boston, 34: Martinez has one year at $19.375 million left on his Red Sox deal, and he could decide against opting out. He may not beat that number for next year, but his still-lethal bat is enough to warrant a multiyear deal if he does test the market.

Carlos Rodon, SP, Chicago White Sox, 29: Performance-wise, he's a Tier 1 player. But questions about Rodon's shoulder, which has flared up and limited him to 127⅔ innings this season, linger. Teams are wary of the left-hander's injury history, but the 181-to-34 strikeout-to-walk ratio will land him at very least a huge one-year deal and, for those willing to take the risk, perhaps something far more lucrative.

Kyle Schwarber, OF, Boston, 29: At one point this season, Schwarber was the hottest hitter on the planet. While his power has waned slightly in Boston, he's sporting the fourth-best on-base percentage in baseball since his Aug. 13 return, and with an age that starts with a 2, the multiyear deal that eluded him last winter shouldn't be a problem this time around.

Marcus Stroman, SP, New York Mets, 30: It's tough to quibble with Stroman's 3.00 ERA. What could keep him from a nine-figure deal are the 5.8 innings per start and peripherals that don't quite match up to the ERA. Even then, Stroman has proved himself eminently reliable -- 32 or more starts in four of the last five full seasons -- and the excellent combination of high ground ball rate (50.6% this season, 57.4% for his career) and walk rate (2.17 and per nine innings this year, 2.52 for his career).

Seiya Suzuki, OF, Hiroshima Toyo Carp, 27: For the past six seasons, Suzuki has been among the most productive players in Nippon Professional Baseball, hitting .300 every year, logging on-base averages well above 40% and hitting at least 25 home runs. This season has been a classic Suzuki year: .318/.434/.617, with a stellar right-field glove. While Suzuki wears the same No. 51 as future Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki, they're not related. It's not a certainty Suzuki gets posted, but if he does, he will be the best player to come from Japan since Shohei Ohtani -- and the best outfielder since Hideki Matsui debuted in 2003.

Noah Syndergaard, SP, New York Mets, 29: Had he spent the 2021 season on the mound instead of rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and hitting roadblocks along the way, Syndergaard would presumably have found himself in Tier 1. He's the youngest starter available who has put up elite numbers, and as he showed in his one-inning return Tuesday, his stuff remains nasty. The Mets are almost certain to tender him a qualifying offer. If Syndergaard turns it down, he could fetch an even larger one-year deal on the open market and hit free agency at 30 and snag the nine-figure deal that typically comes to those of his ilk.

Justin Verlander, SP, Houston, 39: Tommy John surgery sidelined Verlander for the season, and by the time he returns to the mound next season, it will have been more than 20 months since he threw a pitch in a big league game. Considering what he did in his previous two seasons -- 437 innings, 590 strikeouts, 79 walks -- Verlander will get the benefit of the doubt and get to choose where he plies his trade as he tries to come through on his plans to pitch well into his 40s.

Note: Buster Posey (San Francisco) and Craig Kimbrel (Chicago White Sox) are expected to have their club options picked up.

Tier 3

Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco, 33: Perhaps he belongs in Tier 2, particularly considering his performance this season, when he shattered his career-best home run mark by 11 with 29 despite playing in just 97 games. The biggest ding against Belt is his age -- he turns 34 in April -- the history of first basemen aging poorly and the reality that he'll (rightly) be seeking a long-term, big-money deal.

Alex Cobb, SP, Los Angeles Angels, 34: His resurgence with the Angels came at the perfect time. Cobb looked the best he has since before he signed his ill-fated free-agent deal with Baltimore: big ground ball rate (53.8%), huge spike in strikeouts (9.48 per nine) and anemic home run rate (0.31 per nine). He threw only 88⅓ innings, but the audition was enough to convince some teams they want him in their rotation.

Michael Conforto, OF, New York Mets, 29: Nobody hurt his cause more than Conforto this season. He looked like a clear Tier 1 player coming into 2021 and now may wind up accepting the qualifying offer -- or pursuing a pillow deal -- after slashing .223/.338/.364 with middling right-field defense.

Anthony DeSclafani, SP, San Francisco, 31: The latest product of the Giants' pitching machine, DeSclafani didn't just prove himself by spinning a 3.26 ERA over 30 starts. He threw two of the 25 shutouts twirled this season. His fastball-slider combination was one of the best in the big leagues in 2021, and with a curveball and changeup, too, DeSclafani's four-pitch mix is perfect for teams eyeing a mid-rotation right-hander.

Avisail Garcia, OF, Milwaukee, 30: Last week, Garcia hit a plate appearance mark that converted a $12 million team option into a mutual option. And when he turns down his end, he should be able to parlay his excellent 2021 -- with career highs in home runs (29) and RBIs (85) -- into a multiyear deal for more than the $34 million he has made in his entire 10-year career.

Kendall Graveman, RP, Houston, 31: The Graveman-as-a-reliever experiment went swimmingly this season, as his sinker jumped two ticks to 97 mph and turned him from a failed starter into a ground ball-and-strikeout-generating bullpen machine. Sure, he has regressed since being traded from the Mariners to the Astros, but Graveman will find a job as a closer -- or at very least a high-leverage reliever -- somewhere this offseason.

Jon Gray, SP, Colorado, 30: Few pitchers survive Coors Field to reach free agency. The right-handed Gray may have his flaws -- he hasn't thrown more than 172⅓ innings or posted an ERA below 3.67 -- but plenty of teams are willing to dream on him finally reaching his No. 3-overall-pick potential in an environment that isn't a mile in the sky.

Raisel Iglesias, RP, Los Angeles Angels, 32: One of the best closers in baseball this season, the right-handed Iglesias matched his 100 strikeouts in 67 innings with just 12 walks. So what's the rub? He allowed 11 home runs, too, and his propensity to allow long balls isn't something new, either. His home run rates were similar in 2018 and 2019.

Kenley Jansen, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers, 34: Some may see Jansen's inclusion in Tier 3 as a nod to his past. But the real nod is what he did this season: Throw hard again. Prime Jansen is gone and not coming back, but this version -- flinging cutters at 93 mph and up to 96 -- combined with the reality that closers are always in demand will sustain his market, even if it's not at $20 million or in L.A.

AJ Pollock, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers, 34: Rather than receive a $10 million salary next season, Pollock can opt out of his deal and receive a $5 million buyout. His .299/.359/.516 line this season is among the best in a deep, dangerous Dodgers lineup, and teams looking for pop and speed in the outfield have an excellent option in Pollock.

Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Boston, 29: Rodriguez is the likeliest player in the class of '21-22 to get overpaid compared to his traditional numbers. His 4.93 ERA is straight-up bad. But his 10.56 strikeouts per nine are a career high, his 2.61 walks per nine is a career low and his .365 BABIP is nearly 60 points higher than his career average on balls in play. Between his peripherals and age, Rodriguez will find a plenty active market over the winter.

Chris Taylor, UT, Los Angeles Dodgers, 31: Teams love Taylor's skill set: He walks, he's got some pop, he runs the bases extremely well and he can play everywhere -- second, shortstop, third and all three outfield positions this season alone. The market for a player like Taylor is well-established: four years and $56 million for Ben Zobrist. And with the Dodgers, Rays, Giants and others illustrating the value of versatility, Taylor will find himself very popular.

Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis, 40: He's not going anywhere. The right-hander will pitch his 17th season with the Cardinals after a 2021 in which he posted a 3.05 ERA over 206.1 innings -- nearly twice as many as Kwang Hyun Kim, who has logged the second most on the team. Once Wainwright's deal with St. Louis gets done, it should be for plenty more than the $8 million he played for this year.

Note: Yuli Gurriel (Houston) is expected to have his club option picked up.

Tier 4