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ESPN Senior Writer- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
Most breakout players in any given baseball season fall into three categories:
1. Rookies who play like stars right from the onset of their careers.
2. Young veterans who raise their games to become star players.
3. Star players who become superstars.
Who are the new stars -- and superstars -- of 2021? ESPN baseball writers David Schoenfield and Jeff Passan weigh in on 20 candidates. Schoenfield makes the case for each and Judge Jeff renders the final verdict.
Superstars
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
The case: Not all superstars mature on the same timeline, but we were still mildly disappointed with Guerrero's first two seasons because he didn't immediately tear up the league like Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr. or Ronald Acuna Jr. Even the "two seasons" is unfair, because it was just 183 games. Guerrero came to camp in better shape and ready to rake. He leads the majors in batting average, home runs, hits, total bases and runs, and the AL in OBP and slugging. He ranks in the 98th or 99th percentile in all the Statcast hitting categories. The comparison to peak Miguel Cabrera is perhaps too easy, but it's appropriate, given their abilities to combine a high average with power and plate discipline. Or, dare I say, he has the potential to be even better than Cabrera. At age 22, Guerrero has a 177 OPS+; Cabrera at 22 was at 151.
Judge Jeff's verdict: He doesn't lead all of baseball in RBIs? And you want me to call him a superstar? All of this talk about the Triple Crown being something more than an anachronism has blended with the unending bleating of those on the Vladdy-for-MVP train to provide a truly cacophonous experience. Even then, Vlad Jr. is impossible to deny. Rare is the player who makes the double jump: from guy, over star, directly to superstar. That's Guerrero. Not gonna call him Miggy yet. Not gonna say he's MVP, either, because while the race isn't over until Oct. 3, he's got a sizable gap to overcome. But superstar? Between the performance and everything that underpins it, yup, he's there.
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
The case: Was Ohtani a star before 2021? I say no, other than those two months at the start of 2018 before he hurt his elbow. Remember, he hit .190 in 2020, so expectations entering this season weren't exactly in "Better than Babe Ruth at this whole hitting/pitching thing" territory. But, oh, what a season -- one that goes beyond just the numbers (45 home runs, 9-2 with a 3.28 ERA, 23 stolen bases) into the realm of mythology, a historical season for the ages that will likely end with MVP honors over Guerrero.
Judge Jeff's verdict: If Shohei Ohtani isn't a superstar, nobody is. I wish all rulings were this easy.
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
The case: Burnes had a 2.11 ERA last season, but even though the stuff and results were dominant, it came over just 59 innings. He has proven it was no fluke. Pitchers are often evaluated in the aspects they most control: strikeouts, walks and home runs. Burnes leads the NL in all three categories in rates per nine innings, an unprecedented achievement. (Walter Johnson was the last to lead his league in K's per nine innings and fewest walks per nine, back in 1913.) When watching Burnes, it's sometimes hard to fathom that anyone scores off him: He has five plus pitches, with his curveball/changeup/slider/sinker all playing off his cutter, the pitch he developed heading into 2020 that turned him into a giant.
Judge Jeff's verdict: Remember that whole skip-the-star-and-jump-to-superstar thing Vlad Jr. did? It doesn't work that way for pitchers. There is too much volatility, too much inconsistency in the art, to definitively declare someone of Burnes' limited (albeit impressive!) success in that class. Remember, the number of pitching superstars typically hovers somewhere around five. And they've gotten there through longevity: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole -- guys who have done it again and again. Get back to me in another year, counselor. Dismissed.
Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers
The case: Sure, he was already a star, especially given his performance over the past three postseasons, but this was really the first time in the regular season that everything came together in the form of season-long consistency: the stuff, the results and the durability. He's going to top 200 innings for the first time, he's contending for the Cy Young Award and he's pitched at least six innings in 28 of his 30 starts. In six starts against the Giants, he went 3-1 with a 2.19 ERA. With his stuff and poise, this won't be his last superstar season.
Judge Jeff's verdict: He checks every box. Lots of strikeouts. Few walks. Low home run rate. Tons of innings. Hard to hit. Harder to score upon. This is pretty telling: Since the 2018 season, among starting pitchers with more than 400 innings total, the ERA leaders in all of baseball are deGrom (1.94), Justin Verlander (2.56), Scherzer (2.65), Buehler (2.73) and Cole (2.79). Perhaps without his postseason performances he's more borderline, but what Buehler has done in his playoff career -- 61.1 innings, 83 strikeouts, 2.35 ERA -- affirms he belongs in that top echelon. Confirmed superstar.
Robbie Ray, Toronto Blue Jays
The case: Ray has flirted with star status before, but never quite got there due to a high walk rate. Then came a disastrous 2020 season, when an attempt to change to his mechanics led to more walks than ever. In 2021, back to his old mechanics, Ray has skipped "star" status and gone straight to "superstar," as he has pounded the strike zone (just 2.2 walks per nine versus his career mark of 3.9) and now looms as the AL Cy Young favorite, leading the league in ERA (2.72) and strikeouts (238). I'm not calling him the next Randy Johnson, but I invoke Johnson to show that some pitchers don't put it together until they're 29 or 30 years old. Ray throws hard, has a good medical history and gets extra credit for wearing that super-tight uniform.
Judge Jeff's verdict: People have been disbarred for less, Dave. Though instead of dismantling your argument piece by piece as to why Robbie Ray is certainly not yet a superstar, let me point out something good about him that almost nobody knows: Ray is Major League Baseball's all-time leader in strikeouts per nine at 11.25 -- nearly .25 strikeouts per inning superior to Yu Darvish and Chris Sale, and also ahead of deGrom, Scherzer and, yes, Randy Johnson.
Stars
Cedric Mullins, Baltimore Orioles
The case: Mullins has won a lot of people some fantasy leagues this year. While the seasons from Guerrero and Ohtani came from two hyped players realizing their ultimate potential, Mullins' season is a complete surprise. Giving up switch-hitting helped, but that alone doesn't explain the power surge. I'm buying, however, for a couple reasons: He has 36 doubles to go with his 29 home runs, so he's not a one-trick pony. He's also a well-rounded player with speed and defense, so I like the broad base of skills. He started the All-Star Game and I think there are more to come.
Judge Jeff: He's going to be pretty high on my MVP ballot this year. And with position players, one season can portend stardom. But that season typically doesn't come at 26 after three previous years in which he couldn't crack a 100 OPS+. He'll get his age-27 season to fulfill the star turn, but for now, pump the brakes.
The case: Tucker has been around awhile, first as a highly touted prospect, and then kicking around the majors since his debut in 2018. He finally gets his first full, non-COVID season in the big leagues and has exceeded expectations -- and, really, doing it while flying well under the radar. There are a lot of positives to back up the numbers: average exit velocity in the 87th percentile, hard-hit rate in the 86th, strikeout rate in the 81st, expected batting average in the 99th. He's a plus defender, with room for improvement (chase rate, walk rate) to get even more power out of his sweet swing.
Judge Jeff's verdict: Right now, there are eight players in MLB with an expected weighted on-base average better than Tucker's .400: Bryce Harper, Soto, Vlad, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Tatis, Joey Votto and Aaron Judge. That is star company, and with Tucker putting up a five-win season at 24 (and doing it a year after his breakout), he belongs with those players.
Teoscar Hernandez, Toronto Blue Jays
The case: It's hard to get attention in a lineup with MVP candidates Guerrero and Marcus Semien, but Hernandez has showed his 2020 breakout was no short-season fluke as he heads toward a possible .300/30/100/4.0 WAR season. The tools have always been there, he's cut down on his strikeouts just enough and he plays the game with the joy of a Little Leaguer. As with Tucker, there is room for improvement if he can continue to improve his selectivity, although he may be one of those hitters who thrives with his go-for-broke approach.
Judge Jeff's verdict: Hernandez is indeed a joy to watch, and he is certainly an improved player, but let's see a top-10 MVP finish before we start throwing around the word star. Now, Hernandez has it in him. But he turns 29 in mid-October and is going to need an Edwin Encarnacion-type ascendance -- he went from solid to star in his age-29 season -- to earn it.
The case: Winker is the opposite of Hernandez, as his plate discipline has always been stellar. But maybe he was too passive. Winker started swinging more often last season, especially on the first pitch, and that has led to more power and a .305/.394/.556 line. Winker is a borderline call here for me, however, as he still struggles against lefties and his defense is more DH-quality than anything.
Judge Jeff's verdict: I want so badly to call Winker a star because in his five seasons his career slash line is .288/.385/.504. I won't call him one because for a position player to be a star he needs to play at least 120 games in a season. Winker's year-by-year game totals: 47, 89, 113, 54, 110. In 2018, the problem was his shoulder, and in 2019, his back. This year: intercostal and ribs. Winker is a star when he plays. He just needs to play more to be a star without a caveat.
Brandon Woodruff/Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
The case: Woodruff was close to star status already, but now he's performed over a full, healthy season. His Brewers teammate has been the revelation. Moved into the rotation after spending most of the past two seasons as a reliever, Peralta added a wipeout slider to his fastball/curveball repertoire and has produced one of the most unhittable seasons ever by a starting pitcher, with a .162 average allowed. That is not a typographical error. Sounds like a star to me.
Judge Jeff's verdict: Woodruff is a star. That one's easy. But Freddy Peralta? Your Mr. .162 Average Allowed is my Mr. .230 BABIP. Your conquering hero is my first-time-going-through-a-full-season-as-a-starter question mark. The stuff is gross, no doubt, but let's see it this October and let's see it for a healthy 2022. Then, come next September, the Brewers can claim they've got three genuine starting-pitching stars.
Sandy Alcantara/Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins
The case: Another pair of teammates here, and the progress of Alcantara and Rogers bodes well for the future of the Marlins. Alcantara is a long-limbed righty with an upper-90s sinker that is one of the best fastballs in the game. But this year, he's started throwing his changeup more, cut down his walks and gone to the next level. Rogers is a long-limbed rookie lefty, and even though the Marlins limited his innings in the second half, I love what I saw -- especially that "6" in the home runs allowed column -- and how he attacked hitters with his fastball/changeup combo. I'm putting an ambitious stamp of approval on him.
Judge Jeff's verdict: Sandy Alcantara's fastball is so good I might not be able to hit it with my vaunted gavel. Even better, he's a workhorse: 197 1/3 innings in 2019, likely to exceed 200 this season in his next start. That's star-caliber stuff and performance. As for Rogers, the ERA is pretty, yes, but dig into that "6" a little more and another number emerges: 5.4. As in the percentage of fly balls Rogers allows that go for home runs. Of all the pitchers in baseball with at least 120 innings this season, here's the list of those whose home run/fly ball percentage is lower than Rogers':
As a wise old judge once told me, Dave: Ambition is great until you call a guy named Trevor a star when maybe, just maybe, he's been this good because of luck. At least I think that's how the quote went.
Jake Cronenworth, San Diego Padres
The case: Hey, here's evidence the Rays don't win every trade. Cronenworth was second in the Rookie of the Year voting last season after coming over from Tampa Bay, although it had "fluke" written all over it: He was 26, he followed up a .355 August with a .183 September, and... well, the Rays don't make mistakes like this, do they? Instead, Cronenworth is headed to a 5.0-WAR season and that makes him a star. He gets on base, he has midrange power, he puts the ball in play and he plays good defense at multiple positions.
Judge Jeff's verdict: This one is tough. Cronenworth is a touch long in the tooth, he doesn't have a crazy carrying tool and his excellence is more a product of him being good at everything than great at any particular thing. Is that a star? Someone who's just across-the-board solid? This one may come back to bite me, and probably solidifies my status as the wet blanket of this column, but I need another five-win year before I bestow stardom.
The case: A first-round supplemental pick out of high school in Mississippi, Riley advanced quickly through the minors and reached the majors in 2019, but his approach his first two seasons was so poor -- 32 walks, 157 strikeouts, .232 average -- that his offensive value was limited despite the obvious power potential. We go back to experience and Riley has toned down his overaggressive approach (he swung at the first pitch 47% of the time in 2020, down to 35% in 2021). After struggling against breaking balls and off-speed pitches his first two seasons, he's hit .284 against breaking stuff and .355 against off-speed pitches. He eventually moved into the cleanup spot and has provided protection for Freddie Freeman as he heads to a possible 30-homer, .300 season.
Judge Jeff's verdict: Riley presents something of a conundrum, because he's at the perfect age (24) for a genuine leap. Here's the thing: He's not a great fielder at third and not a great baserunner. Thus he is bat-dependent, and after starting his career with .293 and .280 BABIPs, Riley's batted balls are landing in play at a .358 clip this year. He's not consistently hitting the ball any harder. The luck factor has to be considered. And so because of that, Riley is a no -- with an eye on him to see if he can repeat this performance and become the Braves' best third baseman since Chipper Jones.
Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers
The case: It feels like Urias has been around forever (he reached the majors in 2016 at age 19), but remarkably he just turned 25 in August. It's also a minor miracle that he's here after career-threatening shoulder surgery in 2017. The Dodgers slowly nursed him back, he closed out the World Series last year, and this season it's been full go for the first time. He's 18-3 with a 2.99 ERA and his curveball and changeup are next-level nasty: Batters are hitting .149 against the curve and .196 with no home runs off the changeup. His feel for pitching -- which scouts noted back when he was 16 -- bodes well for more big seasons if the shoulder stays healthy.
Judge Jeff's verdict: Over the last three seasons, 62 pitchers have thrown more than 300 total innings. Here are the ERA leaders in that time: deGrom, Scherzer, Cole, Buehler and... Julio Urias. While we know by now a great win-loss record doesn't mean a great pitcher, complementing a 2.91 ERA with a 25-6 record is quite impressive. And let's remember: Rather than go to his bullpen last October, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts gave the ball to Urias for three innings to close out Los Angeles' first championship in more than 30 years. The résumé isn't as robust as others, but there's enough to take a chance. Star.
Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
The case: The Giants have received unexpected levels of production from their cast of veterans -- and one surprising 24-year-old. Drafted out of high school in 2014, Webb was never a touted prospect because -- take a guess -- he doesn't throwing a blazing fastball. What he does throw is one great tumbling two-seamer that generates ground balls and soft contact. It's the wipeout slider that has me convinced Webb is the real deal, however, as batters have hit .155 against it and continually chase it out of the zone. That allows him to whiff batters at a solid rate (9.6 per nine). He's pitching with a lot of confidence and is getting better, with a 2.14 ERA over his past 11 starts (all at least six innings).
Judge Jeff's verdict: He's a guy who entered this season with a 5.36 ERA in 94 innings. Now after nearly halving it for 132.1 innings, you want to call him a star? Webb may well be the real deal -- I'm a sucker for anyone with a 61.1% ground-ball rate -- but he's got to do this again before he gets the shine you're so generously giving these days.
Tyler O'Neill, St. Louis Cardinals
The case: O'Neill has always been an athletic freak -- he's built like a bodybuilder and yet his sprint speed is in the 98th percentile -- but he entered 2021 with a .229 career average over parts of three seasons. "Part" being the key there, as he had just 450 career plate appearances. Now he's hitting for average, hitting for power and he may win his second straight Gold Glove. He's sitting on 5.3 WAR. Bryce Harper may win the MVP award and he's at 5.5.
Judge Jeff's verdict: Nobody with a 30%-plus strikeout rate is a star. (Checks. Sees Joey Gallo and Javier Baez both at 30%-plus. Reconsiders.) Nobody with the highest BABIP in baseball this season can be called a star when his previous three seasons were so similar and this one is the outlier. (Feels better.) Still, nobody who, despite BABIP luck, has an xwOBA higher than his actual wOBA and has hard-hit rates better than Ohtani's and Soto's, should feel such disrespect. And so while I'm not going to call O'Neill a star, I will say: He's got some very star-ish qualities.
Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Indians
The case: It's been a tough year for closers across the sport, but if you're looking for the most likely best one over the next decade, I would pick Clase -- who, by the way, is a rookie and seems to be getting ignored in the Rookie of the Year discussion. He has 24 saves with a 1.37 ERA and just two home runs allowed, all stemming from one of the most unhittable pitches in baseball: a cutter that has averaged 100.7 mph, and which he throws 70% of the time. Closer? Unhittable cutter? Doesn't give up home runs? Yeah, I'm dropping the Mariano Rivera comp on him.
Judge Jeff's verdict: A guy who throws a 101-mph cutter is a star. Don't care if he plays in Cleveland. Don't care if he plays in Timbuktu. Don't care if he's a rookie. Don't care if I'm being logically inconsistent. Anyone that throws a ball -- both in velocity and movement -- like Clase's cutter deserves stardom. Nobody ever has thrown a pitch like Clase's. There have been great curveballs and sliders and changeups and fastballs. But they're all at least within a standard deviation of one another. Clase's cutter is an outlier. And it has made him into a force.
Star now, superstar in 2022
The case: He got off to a little bit of a sluggish start -- there we go with expectations again -- but is currently riding a 39-game on-base streak as he sits on the injured list with a hamstring issue. He has showed everything scouts loved in the minors: hard contact, incredible contact ability and the line-drive power that should eventually blossom into even more over-the-fence pop. You never want to project a young player to superstar status, but I feel comfortable doing so with Franco.
Judge Jeff's verdict: Before Franco hit the IL, he was in the midst of a 101-plate-appearance stretch in which he struck out three times. That is correct: a .364/.429/.568 stretch with 14 extra-base hits, eight walks and three strikeouts. Oh, and Dave forgot to mention: He's still only 20. Franco is one of the 25 best players in baseball right now. By this time next year, provided he remains healthy, he will be a superstar. Some guys just get the diamond lane to the promised land.