Before we get into the full 2021-22 free-agent rankings of this MLB offseason, here is some important context for next year's projections:
I'm ranking players by the guaranteed money I think they'll get offered and, in all but a few cases, what I think they'll sign for. There are a few players who I think will turn down $50 million-ish guaranteed contracts for one-year, prove-it-again type deals.
The biggest point to consider here is the looming expiration of the collective bargaining agreement on Dec. 1. I think at most, one or two of the potential nine-figure deals will be signed before that date. The biggest deals will hopefully be coming in January, but more likely February or March. Thanks to the new economic reality, these are even more shots in the dark than usual.
This list is incomplete, with non-tenders and some options decisions yet to come, and we don't know for sure about any of the potential posted players from Korea and Japan yet. These later additions normally don't amount to more than a couple of low-eight-figure deals, but those would appear on a top 50.
Scott Boras will in all likelihood be in the driver's seat once the new CBA is signed. Of the potential $50 million-plus types, he advises Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Max Scherzer, Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Carlos Rodon and Michael Conforto, who are all in my top 15 free agents. Everyone I spoke with expects none of them to sign before Dec. 1, and any surprise one-year deals have a real good shot at coming from this group in an unexpectedly tepid market.
The universal DH is seen as at least 90% likely to be coming in the new CBA, so this will help current and future DHs, along with older and/or mediocre defensive corner outfielders: Nelson Cruz, J.D. Martinez, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Avisail Garcia et al.
The pandemic gave owners an excuse to trim staff headcount and limit expenses both on and off the field. I've already heard firsthand accounts from multiple big-market clubs that said they are awash in cash from strong gates, and/or deep playoff runs. Competitive owners can't help themselves from spending the cash they have. Some nontraditional spenders (Detroit, Seattle) and teams that have lots of money coming off the books (San Francisco) are also ready to spend. Indications are that the top and middle parts of the market may be healthier than many are expecting; my feedback from clubside sources was to adjust up on my initial guesses.
And now here are my top 50 free agents available this winter, with my projected contract for each player.
1. Carlos Correa, SS
2022 Opening Day age: 27
Projected contract: 9 years, $297 million (33 AAV)
Correa is the consensus best free agent in this crop -- he lived up to his status as the No. 1 pick in 2012, using his elite tools to post three five-win seasons -- but I think he'll likely land shy of a record-breaking deal because he's had only two seasons of over 500 plate appearances. He has things in common with Francisco Lindor (10 years, $341 million at age 27) and Manny Machado (10 years, $300 million at 26) for recent comps; Correa should easily clear $250 million and could challenge Lindor with the right market conditions.
I think he'll get the $30 million-plus annual rate at around eight to 10 years, with some push and pull between the two and some combination of options, escalators and incentives tossed in to protect against future injuries. There's a real shot that a team (the Yankees are the most motivated) looks to jump the market and make a big, Lindor-adjacent offer before Dec. 1. Correa has had some injury issues like Machado had and is an elite defender like Lindor, but some believe he's a better player than both, so if a few teams have him as their clear offseason priority, this could clear $300 million quickly.
2. Corey Seager, SS
2022 Opening Day age: 27
Projected contract: 7 years, $210 million (30 AAV)
Seager isn't far behind Correa -- he's just 5 months older with similar highs (two six-win seasons) from the left side of the plate, but also with just three seasons over 500 plate appearances because of injury. There's a worry that Seager will need to slide to third base eventually, compared to Correa's Gold Glove defense at short, so health and hitting ability will need to carry Seager even more as he goes into his 30s. Consensus has him safely clearing $200 million, but not by much.
SIGNED: Seager has agreed to a 10-year, $325 million contract with the Texas Rangers, sources told ESPN's Jeff Passan.
3. Freddie Freeman, 1B
2022 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 6 years, $156 million (26 AAV)
There are some warm and fuzzy feelings going around in Atlanta, but Freeman is about to hit free agency when that deck has been stacked against first basemen and players over 30 for years. Freeman rises above the fray because of his nine-year streak of three-plus-win seasons, with a peak of six wins, two five-win seasons and the 2020 NL MVP. The most direct comp, and the likely floor for Freeman, is Paul Goldschmidt's extension with the Cardinals that also started in his age-32 season: five years, $130 million. There's real power in being the best hitter in a strong free-agent market, and many big-market clubs are in solid financial positions. Plus, the Braves want to keep the band together. I think Freeman can clear that Goldschmidt number (which came at a discount because it was signed a year before it kicked in, with no open-market bidding), with a decent chance he's the big-money player who signs pre-Dec. 1, particularly if he ends up returning to the Braves.
4. Trevor Story, SS
2022 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 5 years, $115 million (23 AAV)
Story is in Correa's class as an elite defender and has been healthier than both Seager and Correa, but he's a few years older and has gradually declined offensively while playing in Coors Field, mostly because of contact issues. Additionally, his problems throwing the ball will affect his market this winter. Some sources suggested he may be forced to move off shortstop, or even settle late in the process for a one-year deal of $30 million or more. Story could be a steal for teams that lose out on the top two and see both untapped offensive upside and a throwing solution. He looked to be ticketed for $150 million or more at various times. His deal should come in around $25 million per year for five years or so, but I think his ceiling is around the top deal from last winter: George Springer at six years, $150 million. I could see a team like the Giants scooping him up if it comes to a one-year deal, but an upstart like the Tigers could be the highest bidders on a nine-figure contract.
5. Marcus Semien, SS
2022 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 5 years, $110 million (22 AAV)
Semien is around average defensively as a shortstop but played mostly as a second baseman this year and is a plus defender there. He was pretty bad in the shortened 2020 season (which is how the Blue Jays got him for one year, $18 million for a 6.6-WAR season), but the 2018, 2019 and 2021 seasons all point to an All-Star-level player. Semien's versatility and positive clubhouse presence should draw a lot of interest. He has some reasonable contract comps from last winter: Semien is a year and a half older than J.T. Realmuto was (five years, $115.5 million), he's the same age Springer was (six years, $150 million), and he's a year younger than DJ LeMahieu was (six years, $90 million). Keep an eye on the Mariners here -- Semien fits them well, but the Jays will surely try to bring him back.
SIGNED: Semien has agreed to a seven-year, $175 million deal with the Texas Rangers, sources told ESPN's Jeff Passan.
6. Kevin Gausman, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 5 years, $105 million (21 AAV)
There are split opinions on who among the top tier of pitchers (Gausman, Robbie Ray, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw just behind them) will get the biggest deal. They should all be in the high eight figures to low nine figures, and it'll come down to who has the most interested bidders at that level. The Giants' pitching-excellence factory has turned out another gem, and Gausman, coming off accepting a qualifying offer last winter, is hitting a market in which the Giants have tons of money to spend, so he could challenge for a Zack Wheeler-type deal: five years, $118 million. I think he'll come in just below this, but he's is another candidate to re-sign for a big number pre-Dec. 1.
SIGNED: Gausman has agreed to a five-year, $110 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, sources told ESPN's Jeff Passan
7. Max Scherzer, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 37
Projected contract: 3 years, $90 million (30 AAV)
Every person I spoke with about Scherzer's market mentioned last winter's Trevor Bauer contract: three years, $102 million. None of them thought Scherzer would get the complicated options tossed in, but all thought that he would use that as a standard, with a real shot to beat it. The big-market top-tier contenders should all be making strong offers on Scherzer.
SIGNED: Scherzer has agreed to a three-year, $130 million deal with the New York Mets, sources told ESPN's Jeff Passan
8. Kris Bryant, 3B
2022 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 5 years, $90 million (18 AAV)
For some of the sources I spoke with last winter, Bryant had zero trade value on a one-year, $19.5 million deal for his last year of arbitration. Despite his name recognition, teams were responding to his underlying metrics (contact rate, power on contact, defense) that had clearly regressed from his blazing-hot first three MLB seasons. His 2021 allayed many of those concerns, so while he still isn't and will likely never be that guy from his first three seasons, he's now stabilized as a strong starter, even if he may move off third base in the back end of this deal. There's a shot Bryant gets over $100 million in the right market, but I'd bet on just below that.
9. Robbie Ray, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 4 years, $76 million (19 AAV)
Many of these potential nine-figure players have clear, singular comps that will get mentioned most often, and it'll usually help them. In Ray's case, Patrick Corbin comes up most, a talented but inconsistent lefty who broke through in his contract year. Corbin got a then-above-market six-year, $140 million deal in 2019. After one good and one decent year, he was bad this season. Ray has been good but has also had command problems and just turned 30. His track record isn't wildly different from Corbin's, but teams are rightfully hesitant to go to nine figures on Ray, even after a sterling 2021.
SIGNED: Ray has agreed to a five-year, $115 million contract with the Seattle Mariners.
10. Starling Marte, CF
2022 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 4 years, $68 million (17 AAV)
Speaking of sterling 2021s, Marte pretty quietly posted a 5.4-WAR season as a 32-year-old. He and Semien are the position-player versions of Scherzer in that clubs will be bidding on front-loaded, veteran, get-us-over-the-top performance and maybe wince a bit at the end of the deal.
SIGNED: Marte has agreed to a four-year, $78 million contract with the New York Mets.
11. Javier Baez, SS
2022 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 1 year, $25 million
Here's the trickiest projection of the group. Among all the players on this list, Baez has the biggest chance of turning down $50 million-plus and settling for a one-year deal. There's also a non-zero chance of a nine-figure deal if a (mostly? sort of?) irrational bidder or two enters the fray. In a similar way that clubs are wary of the Robbie Ray sort of player, the vast majority of teams are terrified of being on the hook in a long-term deal when Baez's electrifying physical gifts decline and he's just taking wild cuts with a 40% strikeout rate. The Mets are most likely to be that irrational nine-figure bidder, but I'm ranking Baez based on a three-year, $60 million offer that I could totally see being made. I think he'll either sign for one year or nine figures, and one year is the much more likely outcome right now.
SIGNED: Baez has agreed to a six-year, $140 million contract with the Detroit Tigers, sources told ESPN's Jeff Passan.
12. Clayton Kershaw, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 3 years, $54 million (18 AAV)
We're now into the meaty middle class of the market, where most of these players will settle in the $50 million range, so I won't bother trying to get cute and guess the one who gets $70 million or the one who settles for a one-year deal. Kershaw continues to be very good, but he's now in his mid-30s, sitting at 90.7 mph, and may give a bit of a hometown discount rather than try to wring every penny out of the market. The Dodgers decided not to extend Kershaw a qualifying offer, so there will be no draft-pick compensation to consider for any team that tries to sign him.
13. Nick Castellanos, OF
2022 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 3 years, $54 million (18 AAV)
Castellanos will come with a QO attached, which means the signing team will surrender draft picks, and he's also coming off a career year headed into his age-30 season. His age and below-average corner-outfield defense will limit his contractual upside, along with a long-running concern: He was 10th in MLB this year in swing rate. He reduced that rate in 2020 and actually struck out more, so this is just how he has to hit. Once that bat speed and/or power declines a notch, most evaluators think his swing-heavy approach will lead to real problems, especially with little speed and defensive value to offer. That said, he posted 4.2 WAR with career-best figures across the board, so there will be plenty of interest in shorter-term deals. With the universal DH very likely starting next year, his market should expand.
14. Carlos Rodon, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 3 years, $51 million (17 AAV)
Like Robbie Ray, Rodon is very difficult to handicap given that his 2021 was so out of line with career norms. Rodon was roughly up to the expectations of the third overall pick in his first two MLB seasons, then he was hurt and/or inconsistent for four seasons before being non-tendered after 2020. The White Sox brought him back for $3 million, and he had one of the best pitching performances in the league, with the lowest starter ERA in the league (min. 100 innings). He was injured and had declining velocity down the stretch, with a pretty bad playoff appearance for the second year in a row. For all these reasons, no one will be backing up the Brinks truck, and that could lead to a big one-year prove-it-again deal, or Rodon just takes the biggest guarantee to cash in on his huge year.
15. Michael Conforto, OF
2022 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 3 years, $51 million (17 AAV)
Conforto is another Boras client. He's coming off an uneven season and is another candidate to either take the best guarantee he can get (probably in this range), or bet on himself with a big one-year deal. He's been offered the QO, which he'll likely turn down, but he's a candidate to settle for a comparable one-year deal at the end of the offseason, then hit the market off a stronger platform year with no QO next winter. Conforto had the worst full season of his MLB career by surface offensive numbers and by advanced defensive numbers. The underlying offensive metrics suggest he was mostly unlucky and should've posted surface numbers at the lower end of his career norms. He isn't wildly different from Castellanos as a player, but he should age better given his offensive approach.
16. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 3 years, $51 million (17 AAV)
Rodriguez has been a consistently good third-starter type, even if his outcomes this year were worse than normal because of a .363 BABIP -- his career mark is .311. He missed 2020 thanks to myocarditis tied to COVID-19 but appears totally back to his normal on-field self. I would expect a three- or four-year deal for $45-65 million.
SIGNED: Rodriguez signed a five-year, $77 million contract with the Detroit Tigers, sources confirmed to ESPN.
17. Seiya Suzuki, OF
2022 Opening Day age: 27
Projected contract: 4 years, $48 million (12 AAV)
Suzuki looks likely to be posted from his NPB club, the Hiroshima Toyo Carp, and is the best foreign pro free-agent position player in some time. He checks the major boxes in terms of age, performance and tools (38 homers, more walks than strikeouts in 2021), so I think he'll top Ha-Seong Kim's deal with the Padres from last winter (four years, $28 million) as the most recent comp. This figure also comes with a posting fee, which in my projected contract would be a little over $9 million on top of the deal and would go back to the Carp. There's a scenario in which the full outlay for Suzuki could be in the top 10 biggest deals this offseason, but there's also enough uncertainty that he could come in $10-20 million below this figure as well.
18. Marcus Stroman, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 3 years, $48 million (16 AAV)
Stroman took the QO last year, so he won't have that attached to him this winter. He continues to be a solid mid-rotation starter, a sinker/slider, ground-ball type who has been pretty durable. That's not the sexiest type of pitcher, but almost every team needs reliable innings, and Stroman is still sitting at 92.9 mph, so he won't fall into the Zack Greinke/Dallas Keuchel/Julio Teheran type who eats innings in the regular season, then is mostly a nonfactor in the playoffs.
SIGNED: Stroman agreed to a three-year, $71 million deal with the Chicago Cubs, sources confirmed to ESPN's Jeff Passan.
19. Avisail Garcia, OF
2022 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 3 years, $45 million (15 AAV)
Like Castellanos, Garcia also swings a lot (second in MLB behind Salvador Perez), so that creates risk in his offensive consistency into his 30s. On the upside, Garcia has more raw power along with better exit velos and barrel rates, while also becoming an above-average defender in right field. His market figures to be a little below Castellanos' due to some durability issues and because he's had only two seasons of two or more WAR (Castellanos has four such seasons), but 2021 was one of them.
SIGNED: Garcia agreed to a four-year, $53 million deal with the Miami Marlins, sources confirmed to ESPN's Jeff Passan.
20. Raisel Iglesias, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 3 years, $45 million (15 AAV)
Iglesias is comparable to Liam Hendriks from last winter in that they're the same age, and they're both coming off two dominating seasons as right-handed relievers while averaging 96 mph. Hendriks got a three-year, $54 million deal last winter and had slightly better metrics than Iglesias, so it would appear Iglesias will also get a three-year deal for a little less money.
SIGNED: Iglesias is going back to the Angels on a four-year deal, sources told ESPN's Jeff Passan.
21. Kyle Schwarber, OF
2022 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 3 years, $45 million (15 AAV)
Schwarber is a below--average but acceptable left fielder, so the coming universal DH can help his market, as did his career year at the plate. His breakthrough season is supported by improved underlying metrics across the board, so a two-year deal at a big AAV or three-to-four-year deal in a lower-eight figure AAV makes sense. There are some on-field similarities to last winter's four-year, $65 million deal for Marcell Ozuna, so that would be a high-water mark of sorts for Schwarber.
22. Chris Taylor, UTL
2022 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 3 years, $39 million (13 AAV)
Taylor has basically been the same player for five years with the Dodgers and is exactly the kind of premium utility guy whom good teams tend to have. He's roughly average defensively at second and third base and center field, above-average in both corner-outfield spots and passable at shortstop while also being solidly above-average at the plate and on the bases. He'll surely be declining soon, but he seems like a safe bet to return good value at this price point. Last winter, Tommy La Stella, as a clearly inferior player who was also 7 months older, got a three-year deal for $18.75 million, so there's a compelling case for a four-year deal for Taylor. In something of a surprise, the Dodgers extended Taylor a qualifying offer and the draft pick compensation could impact his market if he chooses not to accept the QO.
SIGNED: Taylor agreed to a four-year, $60 million deal with a club option for a fifth year with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the team announced.
23. Jon Gray, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 3 years, $39 million (13 AAV)
Gray reportedly just turned down an extension from Colorado of roughly this amount and the Rockies ultimately choose not to give him a qualifying offer.
There's a chance that a four-year deal is waiting for Gray, as there's some chatter that the best pitching-development orgs see him as a target to jump from a third/fourth starter to a notch better (and the Giants, possibly the foremost of those orgs, have money to spend). I could see a quick deal for this projected contract or a bit north of that, then a real shot for a one-year deal if things get strung out late.
SIGNED: Gray has agreed to a four-year, $56 million deal with the Texas Rangers, sources told ESPN's Jeff Passan.
24. Anthony DeSclafani, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 3 years, $36 million (12 AAV)
DeSclafani did not get slapped with a QO by the Giants, unlike Gausman last offseason. He remade himself with the help of San Francisco's excellent coaching staff and less successful pitching development orgs might pounce despite his shorter track record of success, seeing an already optimized arm at a discount due to being over 30.
SIGNED: DeSclafani has agreed to a three-year, $36 million deal with the San Francisco Giants, the team announced.
25. Mark Canha, OF
2022 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 2 years, $28 million (14 AAV)
Speaking of excellent MLB development orgs, the A's tend to make half of a playoff-caliber lineup out of spare parts and misfit toys, with Canha a prime example. He's a tough profile as a right/right, soon-to-be 33 year old who's fringy at best defensively in corner spots, but the DH changes should help his market. He's a valuable complementary player, a luxury type for good/bigger-market clubs.
SIGNED: Canha has agreed to a two-year, $26.5 million deal with the New York Mets, league sources told ESPN's Jeff Passan.
26. Noah Syndergaard, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 2 years, $28 million (14 AAV)
Thor missed all of the 2020 season and pitched just two innings at the end of 2021 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. His velo wasn't all the way back, but expectations are he'll eventually get back to something close to his former level. The Mets offered him a QO ($18.4 million on a one-year deal), and I can't imagine him getting a big multiyear offer to his liking, so there's a real shot he takes the QO and hits the market next year for his megadeal with no compensation attached. Maybe a team offers an interesting one-year deal with an option or with enough incentives to give both sides some upside. I'll count on a pitching-starved team seeing the potential for two impact seasons at a discount and will throw in significant incentives, an opt-out, escalators, etc., though a one-year deal is the next-most likely option.
SIGNED: Syndergaard has agreed to a one-year, $21 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels, the team announced.
27. Kendall Graveman, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 3 years, $27 million (9 AAV)
Graveman had a velocity spike (2.3 mph) and went from a generic fifth starter to a setup man pitching in the World Series. These kinds of later-career pop-up relievers typically get a higher AAV two-year deal, or lesser AAV on a three-year deal, but I'd expect the total package to land somewhere in the 20s of millions.
SIGNED: Graveman has agreed to a three-year, $24 million deal with the Chicago White Sox, sources confirmed to ESPN's Jesse Rogers.
28. Steven Matz, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 2 years, $25 million (12.5 AAV)
Matz had a healthy bounce-back year and didn't get offered the QO, so he'll be near the front of the line for a shorter-term, high-AAV starting-pitcher deal.
SIGNED: Matz has agreed to a four-year, $44 million deal with the St. Louis Cardinals, sources confirmed to ESPN's Jeff Passan.
29. Brandon Belt, 1B
2022 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 2 years, $25 million (12.5 AAV)
The Giants are known to be the pitching fountain of youth but have also been remaking veteran hitters. Belt is a little over a year older than Anthony Rizzo, but has been much better the past two years and figures to draw a slightly larger guarantee if he chooses not to accept the qualifying offer.
SIGNED: Belt accepted a $18.4 million qualifying offer to stay with the San Francisco Giants.
30. Ryan Tepera, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 2 years, $22 million (11 AAV)
Tepera quietly had a breakout year in the bullpen of both Chicago clubs, with the sixth-best xERA among relievers with at least 60 IP. For comparison's sake, Iglesias was fifth and Hendriks was first. He debuted in the big leagues at age 28 and has usually been good, but this outstanding performance was unexpected. Given his age and track record, this feels worthy of a high-AAV, two-year deal. Braves RHP Chris Martin was in a similar situation two years ago but didn't have as good of a platform year and got $14 million over two years.
31. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
2022 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 2 years, $22 million (11 AAV)
Rizzo is still a solid lower-end everyday first baseman and he lands in the part of the market where older, less versatile players with bat-reliant profiles tend to have trouble. He's a valued veteran presence, but his ability isn't worthy of a long-term deal anymore.
32. Alex Wood, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 2 years, $22 million (11 AAV)
Yeah, the Giants make almost every pitcher they get better; you're probably tired of reading this now. Wood is over 30, has had some durability issues, has a higher-maintenance delivery, and would get pushed to the pen at times with the deep Dodgers rotation, so I think he'll land in the short-term deal starting pitcher market around the same area as Matz.
33. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 2 years, $21 million (10.5 AAV)
Kikuchi declined a $13 million player option, which many expected he would pick up. I prefer Wood among comparable free agent lefty starter options, and I'm projecting Wood for two years, $22 million. Matz is also pretty similar and I projected him for two years, $25 million, but I could also see the market putting those two in a different order. Kikuchi should be able to get two years and close to a $13 million AAV, so this will probably go fine for him, with little chance he has to settle for much less than $13 million if the market doesn't go as expected and he settles for a one-year deal.
34. Justin Verlander, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 39
Projected contract: 1 year, $18.4 million
Verlander missed most of 2020 and all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unlike Syndergaard, he didn't make an appearance in late 2021 and Verlander is 9.5 years older, though Verlander is already a Hall of Famer with some of his best seasons leading up to his elbow surgery. Like Syndergaard, Verlander is a real threat to take the QO then hit the market as a proven, healthy 40-year-old. I could imagine a contending team that misses out on Scherzer may target Verlander on a two-year deal in a gamble that he returns to form, but I couldn't see that guarantee getting much past $30-35 million, so I'll peg the QO as my projection.
SIGNED: Verlander has agreed to a one-year, $25 million deal to stay with the Houston Astros, sources confirmed to ESPN.
35. Kenley Jansen, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 2 years, $18 million (9 AAV)
While he may be more likely in recent years to give you a heart attack watching him in playoff situations, Jansen has been remarkably consistent as a back-end reliever for the Dodgers. He is likely to return on a high AAV, short-term deal.
36. Andrew Chafin, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 31
Projected contract: 2 years, $18 million (9 AAV)
Chafin is another reliever who had an out-of-nowhere breakthrough season in 2021, timed well for a chance to cash in as a free agent. He should get two to three years with a $7-10 million AAV. As the two best lefty relievers on the market, it wouldn't shock me if there's a bidding war for Chafin and/or Aaron Loup, driving the price above that level.
37. Eduardo Escobar, 3B
2022 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 2 years, $15 million (7.5 AAV)
Escobar is a solid low-end everyday third baseman who probably fits best in the super-utility role on a championship-level team, but is a nice veteran presence on a younger club looking for some stability.
SIGNED: Escobar has agreed to a two-year, $20 million deal with the New York Mets, a source confirmed to ESPN's Jeff Passan.
38. Aaron Loup, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 2 years, $14 million (7 AAV)
Loup is another journeyman reliever who timed a breakthrough season well to get a multiyear deal. I have him just behind Chafin because of age, but they aren't that different.
SIGNED: Loup has agreed to a two-year, $17 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels, the team announced.
39. Alex Cobb, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 2 years, $14 million (7 AAV)
Cobb was just OK the first three years of his four-year, $57.5 million deal with Baltimore, then regained his old form in a contract year for the Angels, over 18 starts. His velo ticked up to a career-best 93.2, but his plus changeup is still his bread-and-butter pitch. He's 34 years old and has never thrown 180 innings in a season or topped 2.5 WAR, but he can offer some quality bulk in a one- or two-year deal.
SIGNED: Cobb is finalizing a two-yea deal with the San Francisco Giants, the team announced.
40. Nelson Cruz, DH
2022 Opening Day age: 41
Projected contract: 1 year, $11 million
I guess he'll just keep mashing until he decides to stop. He regressed a good bit in 2021, but there were some unlucky outcomes and he'll also have twice as many landing spots with the universal DH.
41. Joe Kelly, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 33
Projected contract: 2 years, $11 million (5.5 AAV)
The Dodgers declined a $12 million club option on Kelly and opted for the $4 million buyout, suggesting they think he's worth less than $8 million on a one-year deal, or he's worth around that and they'd like to maintain flexibility this winter. I think he'll be able to get something a little below that on a one-year deal, or a bit less annually on a two-year deal.
42. Kyle Seager, 3B
2022 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 1 year, $10 million
The Mariners declined a $20 million option on Seager and paid a $2 million buyout. Escobar is a little over a year younger and they're pretty comparable as players, both in line for one- or two-year deals.
43. Eddie Rosario, OF
2022 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 1 year, $10 million
Rosario was non-tendered at this time last year, signed a one-year deal for $8 million with Cleveland, and performed below expectations until he was traded to the Braves, where he went on a regular-season tear, then put up historic playoff numbers. I think there's something to the tear he went on for Atlanta -- 174 plate appearances total -- but he isn't fundamentally a wildly different player. He's still a perfectly fine, roughly average corner outfielder defensively, and may ultimately still be a high-end platoon option who rotates into a DH spot at times, but he may also just be really good? I think it's still a one-year deal on slightly better terms, but a club or two may believe in him more than I do.
44. Tommy Pham, OF
2022 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 1 year, $10 million
Over the past two seasons, Pham has drastically underperformed his BABIP and xwOBA, heavily suggesting he's been unlucky at the plate. He's probably just a solid two-win player, but 3.5 years older than Rosario and without the high-variance chance that he's an All-Star.
45. Corey Kluber, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 35
Projected contract: 1 year, $10 million
Kluber got $11 million from the Yankees on a one-year deal last winter, coming off a season in which he threw one inning, and a 2019 season with 35⅔ innings. There were understandable durability concerns that limited him to a one-year deal and he only made 16 starts this year for that reason, but he was pretty good and returned solid value with 1.5 WAR. He's now a year older and still comes with all the same concerns, but teams would rather pay for sub-4.00 ERA starters with decent bulk than more innings of a generic starter.
SIGNED: Kluber has agreed to a one-year, $10 million deal with the Tampa Bay Rays, a source confirmed to ESPN.
46. Andrew Heaney, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 1 year, $10 million
Heaney might be able to get a two-year deal because of his relative youth and track record, but he is a fly ball pitcher without plus velocity who has had some homer problems, so enthusiasm may be tempered a bit.
SIGNED: Heaney has agreed to a one-year, $8.5 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, sources confirmed to ESPN.
47. Collin McHugh, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 1 year, $9 million
McHugh threw 64 innings, mostly in relief, and had the fourth-best FIP among relievers in 2021, behind Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly, and Emmanuel Clase. He won't cash in to the degree that most pitchers with that good of a season do, because McHugh throws 53% sliders and 33% cutters, with 11% usage of a 90.9 mph heater. Because he's 34, I'll assume he gets a one-year deal, but if a team thinks this is repeatable for a couple more years, he's performed well enough to get more.
48. Yan Gomes, C
2022 Opening Day age: 34
Projected contract: 1 year, $8.5 million
Gomes isn't quite as good as Travis d'Arnaud (who got a two-year, $16 million deal late in the season) and is a year and a half older, but he isn't that far away. It's a weak catching free agent year, so he could maybe get a two-year deal at a lower AAV if he ends up signing before Dec. 1, but catchers notoriously don't age that well, so the market tends to be pessimistic on going multiple years for those well past 30. Manny Pina is another catcher in Gomes' tier.
SIGNED: Gomes has agreed to a two-year, $13 million deal with the Chicago Cubs, sources familiar with the deal told ESPN's Jeff Passan.
49. Tyler Anderson, LHP
2022 Opening Day age: 32
Projected contract: 1 year, $8 million
Anderson had a nice bounce-back year on a $2.5 million deal for the Pirates, who then traded him to Seattle. He's a tier below the other starting pitchers I've ranked thus far, fitting into the bulk innings, back-end type who is on the generic but effective end of things.
50. Zack Greinke, RHP
2022 Opening Day age: 38
Projected contract: 1 year, $8 million
Greinke is not overpowering and hasn't sat above 90 mph for years, and is now slowly regressing to where he's a solid innings-eater on the back end of a rotation with an ERA that is likely over 4.00. He's a future Hall of Famer and probably has a few more years left in him as a solid big leaguer.
Here are some other free agents of note, but there are certainly some guys who will get small big league deals that aren't listed and, as mentioned above, more players will become free agents over the next few weeks.
NPB Posting options: 2B Tetsuto Yamada (29), RHP Koudai Senga (29), RHP Thyago Vieira (28)
Catchers: Manny Pina (34), Roberto Perez (33), Wilson Ramos (34), Austin Romine (33), Kurt Suzuki (38), Stephen Vogt (37)
Infielders: Cesar Hernandez (31), Jonathan Villar (30), Brad Miller (32), Leury Garcia (31), Matt Carpenter (36), Josh Harrison (34), Freddy Galvis (32), Donovan Solano (34), Matt Duffy (31), Jose Iglesias (32), Andrelton Simmons (32), Jed Lowrie (37), Asdrubal Cabrera (36), Marwin Gonzalez (33), Mitch Moreland (36), Albert Pujols (42), Ryan Zimmerman (37)
Outfielders: Jorge Soler (30), Brett Gardner (38), Joc Pederson (29), Andrew McCutchen (35), Kevin Pillar (33), Corey Dickerson (32), Yoshi Tsutsugo (30), Kole Calhoun (34), Jake Marisnick (31), Dexter Fowler (36), Billy Hamilton (31), Gregory Polanco (30)
Right-Handed Pitchers: Mark Melancon (37), Michael Pineda (33), Brad Boxberger (33), Garrett Richards (33), Dylan Bundy (29), Hector Neris (32), Daniel Hudson (35), Johnny Cueto (36), Corey Knebel (30), Carlos Martinez (30), Archie Bradley (29), Trevor Rosenthal (31), Adam Ottavino (36), Kirby Yates (35), Zach Davies (29), Mychal Givens (31), Alex Colome (33), Jesse Chavez (38), Michael Lorenzen (30), Yimi Garcia (31), Ian Kennedy (37), Jeurys Familia (32), Hansel Robles (31), Michael Wacha (30), Chris Martin (35), Jimmy Nelson (32), Steve Cishek (35), Wily Peralta (32), Darren O'Day (39), Chris Archer (33), Dellin Betances (34), Luis Garcia (35), Tommy Hunter (35), Jordan Lyles (31), Yusmeiro Petit (37), David Robertson (36), Sergio Romo (39), Joe Smith (38), Joakim Soria (37), Hunter Strickland (33), Julio Teheran (31), Bryan Shaw (34)
Left-Handed Pitchers: Kwang Hyun Kim (33), Danny Duffy (33), James Paxton (33), Drew Smyly (32), Jon Lester (38), Brett Anderson (34), J.A. Happ (39), Rich Hill (42), Tony Watson (36), Jose Quintana (33), Cole Hamels (38), Brad Hand (32), T.J. McFarland (32), Andrew Miller (36)