As the minor league season comes to a close, it's time for me to start collecting notes across all 30 farm systems of the low-hanging fruit among the biggest movers from my preseason prospect lists.
After a 2020 season in which almost none of these prospects played an official game, there are scores of prospects who received a ranking because they have tools and positive alternate site/instructional league buzz, but no actual performance in real games. Almost all of them do now. 2021 was an oasis compared to last winter being full of "this guy looked good once or twice and the other team was trying, trust me," type reports.
I won't commit to another reranking of the Top 100 or a new future value grade for anyone just yet, as there's still more movement coming in fall leagues before the offseason lists come together.
It's a real bummer to rank the biggest drops in prospect status, so the next step after my midseason Top 50 in reordering all of my prospect lists is pinpointing the biggest gainers in prospect value within each organization, with a number of honorable mentions.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Ryne Nelson, RHP
This deep system has a number of impressive risers to mention. Alek Thomas made a nice rise within the Top 100 this season, and a couple of 20-year-olds with preseason buzz performed well enough in low-A to get the bump to high-A in LHP Blake Walston and 3B A.J. Vukovich. The headlining trio of risers here are all in the rotation at Double-A Amarillo: Nelson (plus fastball/slider, improved command), RHP Drey Jameson (hitting 100 mph, plus hook), and RHP Brandon Pfaadt (2020 fifth-rounder out of Division II Bellarmine has crushed expectations), while LHP Tommy Henry and RHP Bryce Jarvis in that rotation will also be solid big league starters.
Atlanta Braves
Michael Harris II, CF
Harris' name was hot in the fall of 2019 after his loud pro debut, then it kept building through the 2020 non-season, and his 2021 full season has been in line with the buzz, moving into the Top 100 conversation after signing for almost 10% below slot in the third round out of a Georgia high school. There's a clear top five among prep bats in the 2019 draft (Bobby Witt Jr., C.J. Abrams, Riley Greene, Anthony Volpe, Corbin Carroll), but Harris is right there with Gunnar Henderson at the top of the next group. Other solid candidates for top rising Braves prospects include SS Vaughn Grissom, CF Jesse Franklin V, LHP Kyle Muller, RHP Spencer Strider, RHP Freddy Tarnok and RHP Joey Estes.
Baltimore Orioles
Gunnar Henderson, SS
RHP Grayson Rodriguez was my preseason pick for pitcher breakout and he's now clearly the top pitching prospect in baseball (ninth overall) after starting the year at 30th on my list. C Adley Rutschman moved from second to first with Wander Franco's graduation, but also earned it with a stellar performance. There are five other viable candidates in my mind: LHP D.L. Hall (rose from 97th on the preseason list to 35th on the midseason list), SS Gunnar Henderson (reached Double-A at age 20 with a three-true-outcomes-heavy breakout year, just missed the midseason Top 50), SS Jordan Westburg (late-blooming plus athlete also reached Double-A in his first pro season), 3B Coby Mayo (teenage power bat raked at Low-A) and RHP Kyle Bradish (preseason sleeper made a big move, as some predicted, to viable MLB rotation piece).
Boston Red Sox
Nick Yorke, 2B
Yorke was a shocking first-round pick in 2020, but he smashed his pro debut with a fantastic approach and surprising power at Low-A. Boston's belief in Yorke's bat and polish was well ahead of the industry, and the Red Sox have been right so far. RHP Tanner Houck was a strong candidate for the winner here, but he lost his prospect eligibility a couple of MLB outings ago. RHP Brayan Bello is another arrow-up prospect in the system.
Chicago Cubs
Brennen Davis, CF
Davis has taken another jump this year, moving from a preseason ranking of 63rd to a midseason ranking of 16th, powered by a power-and-patience skill set in center field that should be on display in Wrigley in 2022. The other candidates here are all low-level position players acquired recently: CF Kevin Alcantara (Anthony Rizzo trade), SS Reggie Preciado and RF Owen Caissie (Yu Darvish trade) and SS Cristian Hernandez (17-year-old signed for $3 million out of the Dominican in January).
Chicago White Sox
Jake Burger, 3B
White Sox fans: Enjoy running away with the AL Central this year (with a solid young core, to boot), because there isn't much on the farm to be excited about right now, as it is ranked 30th by a good margin. You could argue Chicago's top two prospects are its top two picks in the 2021 draft (prep shortstops Colson Montgomery and Wes Kath), but you can't call them risers just yet. Burger (bouncing back from a number of injuries, hadn't played an official game since 2017) and, to a lesser degree, 1B Gavin Sheets have shown more than I expected in Triple-A and the big leagues while still being prospect eligible.
Cincinnati Reds
Nick Lodolo, LHP
The Reds had three big risers on the midseason Top 50: RHP Hunter Greene (67th to 15th), Lodolo (113th to 23rd), and SS Jose Barrero (85th to 40th). In addition, 2B Jonathan India just missed the Top 100 this offseason while graduating from prospectdom and is now a front-runner for Rookie of the Year. 3B Rece Hinds, SS Elly De La Cruz and RHP Graham Ashcraft are a couple of other risers just under the radar to keep an eye on.
Cleveland Indians
Daniel Espino, RHP
RF George Valera (56th) and 2B Tyler Freeman (117th) were both already ranked pretty high entering the year, were in the mix for the midseason Top 50, and have performed well, but haven't totally changed their profiles, just progressed. I was extremely skeptical of Espino and any pitcher with his profile (maxed-out frame, huge arm speed as a high school righty) and he's proved me wrong so far with wild strikeout rates as a starter over both A-ball levels this year. Keep an eye on righty reliever Nick Mikolajchak, a 2019 11th-rounder out of Sam Houston who's already excelling at Double-A. There's almost a double-digit total of hit-first, mostly internationally signed middle infielders who could be worthy of a mention here.
Colorado Rockies
Zac Veen, RF
Veen has raked as a teenager in full-season ball, with an aesthetically pleasing .302/.401/.505 line at press time. His power-and-patience combo was expected, as was some swing-and-miss due to the late counts, but the 36 stolen bases while playing exclusively corner outfield is a bit surprising, similar to Kyle Tucker's 2016 low-A season at age 19 (31 stolen bases) as a prospect with a similar profile and pedigree. Two young toolsy bats in the running for this title are C Drew Romo and SS Adael Amador, along with RHP Ryan Feltner, who went from high-A to the big leagues this year.
Detroit Tigers
Riley Greene, CF
Greene was my preseason pick to click for a player I expected to perform his way into the top 10 of the 2021 list, so it shouldn't be that surprising that he's done it, moving from 25th to seventh in the midseason list. He still exceeded my expectations this spring, with power (52 extra-base hits), patience (11% walks), defense (still solid in center field) at Double-A and Triple-A, all while just 20 years old. Greene is more than a year younger than Spencer Torkelson, with superior defensive value and has outperformed him at the same levels this year, something even I wouldn't have expected. RHP Reese Olson (plus stuff, probably not a true starter) was rising in the Brewers' system before he was acquired this summer for Daniel Norris. 3B Colt Keith, an over-slot 2020 fifth-rounder out of a Mississippi high school, had the tools to be a quick mover but performed even better than I expected as a teenager at low-A.
Houston Astros
Hunter Brown, RHP
Brown was another prospect where the 2020 buzz (either behind closed doors, against half-trying competition, or just not a real game) was strong on top of limited 2019 performance, but his pre-draft pedigree (2019 fifth-rounder, a late riser out of Division II Wayne State) was weak enough that we needed to see him in real games against his peers. He faced age-appropriate competition this year in Double-A and Triple-A and has done well, now looking like another notch in the belt of the Astros' pitching assembly line, arrow-up even after ranking 120th for me before the season. SS Jeremy Pena (110th preseason) made it to Triple-A at the end of the season after having wrist surgery in April and should also be a big league option in 2022. I was the low man on big international signing OF Pedro Leon, but have been pleasantly surprised to see him hitting the ground running at the upper levels and playing some passable infield as well after a long time off from competitive environments.
Kansas City Royals
M.J. Melendez, C
It's been an arrow-up year for the Royals' farm system as a whole. I was a little skeptical that Bobby Witt Jr. could deliver on the extraordinary spring training hype, and he's still raking in Triple-A at age 21, so kudos to him, and he's moved from 17th in the preseason to third on the midseason list. The two biggest surprises have been Melendez and 1B Nick Pratto. Both were early-round, toolsy prep picks with upside that just hadn't had things click in pro ball yet, then they both went wild this spring. Pratto went from being bad in high-A in 2019 to hitting 31 homers and 63 extra-base hits, and walking at a 15% clip across Double-A and Triple-A this year. Melendez was also bad at high-A in 2019, striking out 39% of the time due to a long swing, and this year he hit 38 homers and 59 extra-base hits, also walking at a 15% clip. It's like he and Pratto had the exact same life-changing development experience at the same time. RHP Alec Marsh has thrown only 25 1/3 innings this year, but the performance matched the spring hype of triple-digit heat and a stuff spike. SS Nick Loftin has had a nice debut, RF Tyler Gentry was a little better than I expected and 2B Michael Massey had a breakthrough offensive year at high-A. All of the position player names on this list are especially encouraging given all the draft capital sunk into quick-moving college pitchers at high picks.
Los Angeles Angels
Reid Detmers, LHP
Detmers is the reason you shouldn't feel like it's a copout to take a quick-moving, high-floored, solid average raw stuff college pitcher in the first round. All of those intangibles can help in unexpected ways, and Detmers' unexpected development was a velo spike this year. He's up from 122nd on the preseason list to 32nd on the midseason list with the 3 mph jump on his fastball. The low-A double play combo of Kyren Paris (19 years old) and Jeremiah Jackson (21) have both been solid, Paris more so than Jackson. Two teenage middle infielders who have been mostly at the complex level -- 19-year-old Arol Vera and 18-year-old Adrian Placencia -- have also been arrow-up this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Cartaya was heralded as one of the best of his international signing class, but catchers are always nonlinear in developing, so I was wary of expecting big things right away. Then he went to low-A at age 19 and hit 10 home runs in 31 games and posted a 13% walk rate, though he's otherwise been limited by injury. Others of note include RF Andy Pages (almost duplicated his 2019 rookie ball performance -- 29 homers in 115 games -- as a 20-year-old in high-A with 31 homers in 119 games), RHP Ryan Pepiot (incredible raw stuff, cruised through Double-A, ran into issues in Triple-A and with command), SS Eddys Leonard (versatile 20-year-old hit 22 homers across both A-ball levels with an almost .300/.400/.500 performance), C Carson Taylor (2020 fourth-rounder was a draft sleeper, performed well at high-A in pro debut) and 2B Jorbit Vivas (20-year-old just kept hitting at both A-ball levels).
Miami Marlins
Eury Perez, RHP
Perez was on my radar before the season, ranking 23rd in a top-tier system, but based entirely on buzz, as he was still 17 and hadn't played a pro game yet. There's all kinds of buzz around him now, as the 6-foot-8 teenager is showing two plus pitches and starter command in slicing through both A-ball levels like a hot knife through butter. RF Peyton Burdick just needed more bulk of similar performance to move into Top 100 discussions, and an .848 OPS with 23 homers in Double-A may be enough. LHP Jake Eder was in the middle of the biggest riser discussion with a breakout year before blowing out last month. LHP Dax Fulton's stuff has bounced back from Tommy John surgery, and he reached high-A as a teenager, CF Kam Misner is still sticking close to Burdick while answering questions about facing better pitching and 18-year-old 2B Ian Lewis is showing progress in the complex league.
Milwaukee Brewers
Jeferson Quero, C
Quero was another player with solid buzz entering the year from instructional league who hadn't played an official pro game yet, so I couldn't go better than a 40 FV/13th in the Brewers' system. His 23-game pro debut in the complex league is short, but more walks than strikeouts and solid power are strong indicators for an 18-year-old defense-over-offense-type catcher with somewhat limited offensive upside, but clear everyday potential. LHP Aaron Ashby delivered on his preseason hype and plus stuff by running up to the big leagues and performing well: He'll still be a prospect this winter and will get a nice bump. SS Brice Turang hasn't set the world ablaze, but holding his own offensively and defensively up to Triple-A as a 21-year-old is impressive. Three early-season risers have cooled off but are still arrow-up on the season: CF Garrett Mitchell, LHP Ethan Small and CF Joe Gray Jr.
Minnesota Twins
Joe Ryan, RHP
Ryan was acquired from the Rays in the Nelson Cruz deal and was somewhat limited by his extreme fastball-heavy approach, with many assuming he'd become an anonymous back-end starter or long reliever. He's still throwing two-thirds fastballs (at 90-93 mph!) in the big leagues and doing really well, so he's at least become what was expected already, with a chance he was always who his stats said he was. 2B/LF Edouard Julien was seen as a somewhat one-dimensional power-and-patience, positionless player at Auburn, and he still may be that, but he's exceeding my expectations in terms of performance: 18 homers, 34 stolen bases, OBP well over .400. 3B Jose Miranda has almost posted a .300/.400/.500 season at the upper levels with 28 homers and a really strong contact rate. He's a real option for the 2022 Twins after being passed over in the Rule 5 draft last winter.
New York Mets
Francisco Alvarez, C
Alvarez was arguably the biggest winner of the Futures Game, a nice punctuation mark on a blazing-hot first half that continued into the summer. He reached high-A as a 19-year-old catcher, showing a strong approach and, most impressively, an ability to get to his raw power in games to the tune of 24 homers in 99 games, while catching 59 of them. He has risen from 82nd on the preseason list to eighth on the midseason list. Another meteoric riser in the system is 3B Brett Baty, rising from 158th to 15th on the midseason list, so you could easily give him the edge over Alvarez if you're so inclined. Baty needed to perform in a full-season league where he's facing his peers, and he's been strong across high-A and Double-A as a 21-year-old, a stick in the face of the age-obsessed draft models. RHP Tylor Megill has graduated but has been a godsend for the big league team, rising from fringe prospectdom. RF Khalil Lee has shown solid offensive improvement at Triple-A this year while 3B Mark Vientos answered his biggest question with a spike in power and patience at Double-A this year.
New York Yankees
Anthony Volpe, SS
Volpe may be the single most surprising rising prospect in baseball. The report on him entering pro ball was solid average tools, great feel for the game, feel to hit and below average power. As a 20-year-old, he hit 27 homers across both A-ball levels while hitting just under .300 and getting on base over .400, and showing above-average tools across the board. He's at the top of a long list of risers for the Bombers: C Austin Wells (power-and-patience bat, improving behind the plate), RHP Randy Vasquez (low-A to Double-A this season as a starter), LHP Ken Waldichuk (2019 fifth-rounder is a pitch-design standout with towering strikeout rates), CF Everson Pereira (another elite feel/good tools type growing into his power) and SS Oswald Peraza (102nd on the preseason list to 42nd on the midseason list).
Oakland Athletics
While Riley Greene and Grayson Rodriguez were my higher-ranked picks to click this year, Sodstersom was my choice for lower in the Top 100. I think I was the industry high guy, ranking him 76th this winter based on a pre-draft eval and instructs buzz alone, and he delivered on my belief by posting a .306/.390/.568 pro debut in low-A as a 19-year-old, rising to 13th on my midseason list, though his season was cut short by a back injury. I didn't like Virginia 3B Zack Gelof much in my looks but could see there was untapped raw power due to the team-wide approach with the Cavaliers, so I could see how a pro club (that knew Gelof's mindset better than I did) could think they could unlock it with instruction. Oakland popped Gelof 60th overall this summer and he hit seven homers in 32 low-A games after hitting nine homers in 63 games in college this year, so it seems to be working, making Gelof a rare post-draft, pre-instructs riser. 3B Jordan Diaz and CF Michael Guldberg both had solid high-A campaigns to help their stock a bit.
Philadelphia Phillies
Bryston Stott, SS
Stott began the year at 146th on my list, as I was just waiting to see full-season performance before running him up too high, even though the tools alone probably belonged on the Top 100. He's turning 24 next month, so he's older than most prospects at these levels, but Stott has been strong with contact, approach, power and defense to where I think he'll be ready for the big leagues at some point in 2022. CF Johan Rojas is still a bit streaky but is starting to turn the corner in turning his plus tools into performance.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Roansy Contreras, RHP
Contreras was the second-best prospect in a strong four-player return from the Yankees for Jameson Taillon, but he slid just ahead of Miguel Yajure as the best in the group with a fantastic 12 starts in Double-A. C Endy Rodriguez was acquired from the Mets in the three-way Joe Musgrove deal and had a solid full-season debut building on the complex-level performance and solid buzz of 2019 and 2020. RF Rodolfo Nolasco was a stat darling in the 2019 DSL and kept it up this year as a 19-year-old in the domestic complex league. Middle infielders Diego Castillo and Hoy Park are both probably role players but were arrow-up in the Yankees' upper minors and Rule 5 eligible again this winter before being acquired for Clay Holmes. 2B Nick Gonzales went seventh overall in 2020 despite limited defensive ability and a short track record against strong pitching, but he's raked in high-A this year and is now ready to see the upper levels, likely with a 2023 debut coming. SS Liover Peguero is showing offensive progress and is still an above-average defender, while SS Oneil Cruz is such an athletic rarity (think left-handed-hitting Aaron Judge playing shortstop) that I still have no idea what he'll become, but he hit well in Double-A this year.
San Diego Padres
Ethan Elliott, LHP
The type of exciting, high-upside, lower-minors type of talent the Padres have become known for is largely gone, traded over the last year or so, as it's what every team is looking for on the trade market. I like their recent draft class, but it's a little tricky finding prospects who have taken big steps forward. Robert Hassell III started the season in the middle of my Top 100 and has made solid progress, reaching high-A as he turned 20. Elliott was a late-blooming sleeper as a 2019 10th-rounder from D-II Lincoln Memorial that took a huge step forward, reaching Double-A and carving as a finesse-style starter.
San Francisco Giants
Luis Matos, CF
Matos is another prospect with splashy tools and 2020 buzz but no full-season performance, so he started the season ranked 138th while I hoped to see him crush low-A. Crush he has, with a 12% strikeout rate, 15 homers and 21 stolen bases, powered by plus bat speed, raw power and foot speed, landing him 43rd on my midseason list. LHP Kyle Harrison was a tough high school eval as a low-slot lefty with solid average stuff and feel, but the Giants were convicted enough to give him $2.5 million in the third round of the 2020 draft. His velo spiked into the mid-90s after signing and he struck out 157 over 98 2/3 innings this season in low-A, putting him squarely in the back-end-of-the-top-100 conversation. Three prospects -- SS Aeverson Arteaga, RF Jairo Pomares, and SS Tyler Fitzgerald -- tapped into their raw power this year but with a diminished contact rate, so keep an eye on how they progress.
Seattle Mariners
Noelvi Marte, SS
This is one of the easiest of the 30, as Marte went from 105th in the preseason, just waiting for some full-season performance to put him on the list, to a loud season at low-A leading to a 14th overall ranking in the midseason list and a promotion to high-A at age 19. I don't think he's a shortstop long-term, but there's above-average-to-plus tools across the board and he's performing while young for his level. RHP Matt Brash (acquired from San Diego last summer for Taylor Williams), LHP Brandon Williamson and RHP George Kirby look like they'll be big league options in 2022, while 3B Milkar Perez and RF Alberto Rodriguez have also made progress at lower levels.
St. Louis Cardinals
Jordan Walker, 3B
Walker gave me an uneven look early in the 2020 spring, then never got the rest of the spring for me to totally warm back up to him, eventually going 21st overall when a full spring could've landed him in the top half of the first round. The Cards look smart to scoop him up like they did Nolan Gorman, because Walker crushed low-A as a teenager (18 extra-base hits, 17% strikeout rate in 27 games) and has also been solid in high-A (25 extra-base hits in 55 games) with gaudy exit velos. Gorman has cut his strikeout rate while making it to Triple-A as a 21-year-old and now looks ready for a 2022 big league look, when our last look in 2019 was an uneven stint in high-A. The alt-site buzz on LHP Matthew Liberatore has largely been correct, and he'll also be ready for a 2022 big league look. RF Alec Burleson and 1B Juan Yepez also made nice progress this season.
Tampa Bay Rays
Shane Baz, RHP
Baz has made the jump (142nd preseason to 19th midseason) from big stuff/upside but just OK execution/command to being the full package, sitting at Triple-A waiting for a spot to open on the big league staff. The list of pitchers who could make that jump is always long every spring, and the best orgs tend to get an outsized number of pitchers in the "made the leap" list at the end of the year. SS Greg Jones (127th preseason) has moved up, as his full-season debut has shown progress in turning his remarkable raw tools into performance. 3B Curtis Mead has quietly joined the top tier of Rays prospects with some Brandon Lowe vibes. Two preseason buzzy risers (LF Heriberto Hernandez and converted C/IF Ford Proctor) have delivered on that hype while an even deeper sleeping reliever (RHP Colby White) ran up to Triple-A, and a deadline addition (3B Austin Shenton, acquired from Seattle for Diego Castillo) was arrow-up in another org.
Texas Rangers
Cole Winn, RHP
The positive spring buzz on Winn ended up as a leading indicator of a breakout 2021 season, dealing at Double-A with his best stuff at age 21 -- exactly what you would've hoped for when drafting him 15th overall in 2018. Another 2018 prep righty, Owen White, has been sterling in a 35 1/3-inning pro debut after blowing out early in his pro career. White's athleticism gives him even more upside than Winn if he can stay healthy. The whole return for Joey Gallo -- 2B Ezequiel Duran, 2B Josh Smith, LF Trevor Hauver and RHP Glenn Otto -- were all arrow-up guys this year to varying degrees, so Texas did well to scoop them all up. They give the already deep system more help. Some players Texas drafted -- 3B Josh Jung, CF Evan Carter and C Cody Freeman -- all beat offensive expectations this season. Oakland's 2019 11th-rounder, 1B Dustin Harris, acquired at the 2020 deadline for Mike Minor, has been a revelation, hitting 20 homers and stealing 25 bases, with above-average plate discipline across both A-ball levels.
Toronto Blue Jays
Orelvis Martinez, SS
C Gabriel Moreno has a scorching-hot 32-game showing in Double-A this year, continuing the trend from the lower minors of excellent plate discipline and emerging power, along with solid defense behind the plate. He missed about two months with a thumb injury but was 36th on my midseason list (124th preseason), so he should be a 2022 big league option for the Jays. Martinez had played 40 pro games (all at the complex league) entering this season, and he hit 28 homers with solid plate discipline en route to making high-A as a teenager. He rose from 155th to 38th on the midseason list. SS Jordan Groshans handled skipping high-A well and is arrow-up. On the more solid role-player end of things, shortstops Kevin Smith, Otto Lopez and Leonardo Jimenez, along with righties Sem Robberse and Bowden Francis (acquired from Milwaukee for Rowdy Tellez at the deadline), are all rising in the system.
Washington Nationals
Cade Cavalli, RHP
Cavalli was seen among a muddled second tier of college arms in the 2020 draft as a risk/reward ball of clay type: He had the plus athleticism, flashes of plus stuff and elements to project him as a frontline starter, but he had never put it all together before. I assumed this meant he'd tread for a year or two in pro ball while tweaking things to try to unlock his upside, but instead he threw 20 innings in Triple-A in his first pro season. As you'd expect, his numbers were a little worse at each level, but being able to keep his head above water in Triple-A is more than I would've expected in 2021. C Keibert Ruiz has been on the back end of my Top 100 for years and was the headliner in the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner deal due to a power spike this year that got him to 33rd on my midseason list. C Riley Adams and LHP Seth Romero both had solid seasons in the upper minors, while RHP Andry Lara and 2021 first-rounder SS Brady House were both better than expected in shorter looks in the low minors this summer.