There have been a lot of graduations since my preseason top 100 list, along with a number of recent trades, the draft and a number of notable prospects who have played regular-season games for the first time in two years. What that adds up to is a lot of movement on this midseason top 50 prospects list.
Two of my biggest ranking conundrums were two of the tougher players to place on my winter list -- Jarred Kelenic and MacKenzie Gore -- both have moved down since. Kelenic graduated from the list in the past week, so he isn't on here, but there was some lively conversation among sources consulted for the list if he would have held at No. 3 (and we look past his poor MLB debut), or if that debut dampened expectations enough to drop him, possibly out of the top 10 altogether. I split the difference and had him moving down, but still in the top 10 before graduating.
(Note: Prospects graduate from this list when they hit 50 innings pitched or 130 at-bats in the majors.)
Gore has been hard for me to evaluate for a few years because the eyeball scouting likes his combination of above-average stuff and command, and he's always performed well. The analytics end put his raw stuff closer to average and worries what would happen if his command deserted him. I wouldn't say he's deserted now, but there's some combination of mechanical/mental hurdles he needs to overcome to get back to where he has been. You could easily take the optimistic point of view and put him on this list, but the scouts I spoke with would rather see a pitcher fix a problem and rank a position player ahead of them, than project improvement given the natural attrition of pitchers.
There are a number of top 50-75 types who didn't make the list and aren't on the others-of-note list, but they would all still be in the top 100. They just slid down a bit and are otherwise pretty similar. The others-of-note list below is more focused on the closest missed and guys who have risen this season and thus warranted a conversation.
1. Wander Franco, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
He'll graduate in a few weeks now that he's starting to catch fire in the big leagues; otherwise, it's the same story from the winter of a super elite talent who is good at everything.
2. Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles
I think there's a decent dropoff after the top two on this list. Rutschman is still plus at basically everything that matters for a catcher, and performing like it. I'll assume that about two weeks into next season (if the service-time rules stay the same), he'll be deemed MLB-ready.
3. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals
There's a bit of a pileup here in a battle for the third spot. It's a virtual three-way tie for me, with Witt winning out narrowly. It turns out his scorching-hot alternate site and spring training performances were more indicative of where he is than some pre-draft and rookie-level debut contact concerns.
4. CJ Abrams, SS, San Diego Padres
He's still a dynamic talent who fits somewhere up the middle, but probably not shortstop. He's a better runner and a bit younger than Witt, but the power (which is plus in batting practice) hasn't totally shown up in games yet.
5. Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco Giants
He has a shot to reach high-A as a teenager if he gets promoted soon because he has demolished low-A. He offers the least speed and defensive value of these three shortstops but has the highest offensive upside.
6. Julio Rodriguez, RF, Seattle Mariners
He's a classic longer-levered right-field power bat in the mold of Juan Gonzalez, hitting for power in Double-A as a 20-year-old.
7. Riley Greene, CF, Detroit Tigers
He probably settles in right field eventually but is solid in center for now and has one of the longest track records of hitting, going back to his sophomore year of high school. This is the high end of what makes sense for him. He could reasonably be about 10 spots below here, but I'm convinced Greene will be a quick-moving, strong everyday outfielder with a number of ways to create value.
8. Francisco Alvarez, C, New York Mets
One of the biggest risers of the spring, Alvarez's biggest concern entering the spring (when he was still on the top 100) was just bulk of performance to prove the tools play. He's now a teenage catcher crushing high-A, so if he does this the rest of the year, there's still room for him to move up this list.
9. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
He's the consensus choice as the best pitching prospect in the minor leagues. Everything he does on the mound may be plus. I still can't get this high-speed video of his screwball/changeup that I filmed at the Futures Game two years ago out of my head.
10. Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers
He's down a bit from the winter list, but more because other prospects moved up and Tork held serve. He's still showing his plus-plus approach and power in Double-A, and I imagine he'll be doing it in the big leagues next summer.
11. Brandon Marsh, CF, Los Angeles Angels
He's been a little injury-prone and is off to a slow start in his big league debut, but Marsh has a shot for five above average-to-plus tools.
12. Alek Manoah, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Manoah was another player like Alvarez for whom I just wanted to see a little more pro performance before I shot him up the list, and now he's a start away from losing his prospect eligibility with a 2.47 ERA in the majors and is only a little bit lucky.
13. Tyler Soderstrom, C, Oakland Athletics
One of my more aggressive rankings this winter was putting Soderstrom on the Top 100 after he went 26th overall in the draft. He has since crushed low-A as a teenage catcher; all the positive buzz I heard this winter seemed to be underselling him.
14. Noelvi Marte, SS, Seattle Mariners
Marte is the other big riser in the low-A Cal League, but he slides just behind Soderstrom because Marte probably moves off of shortstop and hasn't tapped into his power quite as well yet.
15. Hunter Greene, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Greene now sits in the upper 90s and hits 101-103 mph pretty regularly with a 90-plus mph slider and the same clean arm action and frame that made him a top-five overall pick out of high school. There's injury risk because he throws so hard, but he's doing just about everything you can ask of him.
16. Brennen Davis, CF, Chicago Cubs
Davis was a toolsy prep upside second-round pick in 2018 and has hit ever since. His strikeouts have crept up this year at Double-A, but I'll take fringy contact when everything else is above-average.
17. Nolan Gorman, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals
Gorman slipped out of the top-10 picks in 2018 for reasons that are still unclear, and the teams that passed continue to regret it. He's in Triple-A at age 21 with improved defense and 30-homer potential.
18. Brett Baty, 3B, New York Mets
Maybe Baty will start to shift industry perceptions of the impact that age has on the draft status of prep position players. He wasn't an option for some teams due to being 19.5 on draft day. He's now in Double-A at age 21 after crushing high-A with a similar skill set to Gorman, with good enough D and 30-homer power.
19. Shane Baz, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have found and developed another elite pitcher from the ill-fated (for Pittsburgh) Chris Archer deal. Baz has had an above average-to-plus four-pitch mix for years, but the command lagged behind, and now it's good enough to allow the pure stuff to play.
20. Alek Thomas, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks
There was some hit-tool risk on Thomas after the 2019 season, but he's now 21 years old in Double-A with the same standout defense, while the contact concern isn't worrying nearly as many.
21. Matt Manning, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Manning is following in the footsteps of Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal with a much-ballyhooed debut followed by mediocre raw numbers in his first few MLB starts. Like the other starters ranked on this list, he has above-average-to-plus traits across the board, so the upside remains the same.
22. Nate Pearson, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Pearson is right there with Hunter Greene for the best raw stuff among starters in the minors. Pearson has been just OK in the big leagues and slowed this year by a sports hernia.
23. Nick Lodolo, LHP, Cincinnati Reds
Lodolo is another big riser this spring, and another Reds pitcher on the rise, with his stuff and execution both ticking up from a high base level of being the No. 7 overall pick in 2019.
24. Max Meyer, RHP, Miami Marlins
I saw Meyer match up with Hunter Greene this spring, and while Meyer wasn't hitting 100 mph like Greene and like Meyer did before the draft, he still had three above-average-to-plus pitches and solid feel. Proving he can succeed without absolute peak arm speed is key for a pitching prospect getting over the hump in the big leagues.
25. Ronny Mauricio, SS, New York Mets
Mauricio still looks physically and in pregame about as good as a shortstop can look, and also performs well considering his age and level. He's now seeing a power spike but is walking only 4% of his at-bats, so he'll need to get a little more selective to get to that power at higher levels.
26. Anthony Volpe, SS, New York Yankees
I noted the success of the Yankees' scouting and development after the Gallo deal, and Volpe is another example. He was a first-round prep shortstop light on tools for the draft position but long on feel and makeup. That potential is now showing up in a big way, with 17 home runs in 72 games and above-average plate-discipline numbers.
27. Jordan Walker, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals
Walker has shown off some goofy exit velos this spring, proving his short-but-mixed pre-draft spring that caused him to last until the 20th pick in 2020 was an aberration,
28. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
My top prospect in the 2021 draft checks in here, while my projection without looking was somewhere in the 30s. The rest of the class was tightly bunched, and many follow right behind Lawlar since they're the only guys on this list with no pro performance.
29. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Boston Red Sox
My second prospect in the 2021 draft went No. 4 overall and is a projection bet, so don't look for big power numbers in the next year or two.
30. Jack Leiter, RHP, Texas Rangers
Leiter could easily go the Max Meyer route and be in Double-A 12 months from now, with strong performances taking him to the big leagues if the situation is just right. His ceiling is a Walker Buehler-style ace.
31. Corbin Carroll, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Carroll will miss the 2021 season due to a shoulder injury and hasn't had extensive pro performance, but at the alternate site he showed 70 speed, a center-field fit, a bat that looked like a 60 and enough in-game power skills to get to 15-20 homers.
32. Reid Detmers, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
Detmers' raw stuff has ticked up since the 2020 draft, now sitting at 92-95 mph instead of the 89-92 mph in college. He was the 10th overall pick in 2020 due to his advanced feel to pitch, so now he could be a front-line starter with the added arm speed.
33. Keibert Ruiz, C, Washington Nationals
Ruiz was traded in the Scherzer-Turner deal and is close to the co-headliner, Josiah Gray, but gets the slight edge as the Nationals' new top prospect because of his elite bat-to-ball ability and strong defensive ability.
34. Vidal Brujan, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays
Brujan is a plus runner, defender and hitter who has performed well in Triple-A, so the only real question is how much in-game power he'll have in the big leagues.
35. D.L. Hall, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
Hall has had plus stuff for years. Now his feel and command have progressed to where he's generally projected as a potential front-line starter but could wreck some lineups in two-to-three-inning stints if needed.
36. Gabriel Moreno, C, Toronto Blue Jays
Moreno is a solid defender who is 21 years old and performing at a career-best level in Double-A this year, flashing above-average contact and power upside.
37. Robert Hassell III, CF, San Diego Padres
Hassell isn't showing the same power as Marte and Soderstrom in the low-A Cal League but is probably the best hitter among the three and has real defensive value in center field.
38. Orelvis Martinez, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
Martinez is a teenager who just got promoted to high-A and already has 20 homers this year, with easy plus raw power that's really showing up in games. He'll likely slide over to third base down the line. Contact is a bit of a question, but the bat speed is elite.
39. Cristian Pache, CF, Atlanta Braves
Pache is still an elite runner, thrower and defender who has the tools to perform near league average offensively. He's now 22 years old and hasn't been great in Triple-A or the big leagues this year, so he needs to make progress with the bat.
40. Jose Barrero, SS, Cincinnati Reds
This season he changed the last name he uses from Garcia, and has also answered some of the offensive questions that surrounded his subpar 2020 MLB debut. He's a plus runner, defender and thrower who will be a power-over-hit type, and now looks like he'll reach the everyday upside many have projected.
41. Henry Davis, C, Pittsburgh Pirates
The No. 1 overall pick last month who was my No. 4 overall prospect in the draft (narrowly) behind Lawlar, Mayer and Leiter, in the jumbled top group. He'll need real work receiving unless we get robo umps but can probably play a solid defense at any of the four corners, so the 30-homer-level power and above-average approach are his carrying abilities.
42. Oswald Peraza, SS, New York Yankees
You might notice a trend in this area of the list: Peraza is another toolsy, up-the-middle position player with plus run, defend and throwing tools. He is 21 years old and performing pretty well in Double-A, with a hit-over-power approach. He looks like a solid, high-probability everyday shortstop.
43. Luis Matos, CF, San Francisco Giants
Matos quickly looked like a steal ($1 million bonus) for the Giants in pro ball, flashing plus-bat speed, raw-power potential and speed. He's now 19 and showing above-average contact and power in low-A while playing center field.
44. Diego Cartaya, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
Cartaya is another quick-rising prospect from the international realm who was one of the top prospects in his signing class but just didn't have enough pro performance to go where his tools might have dictated. Many prospects on this list have this sales pitch: big tools and pedigree, power and patience in a limited look at low-A, delivering on the raw tools.
45. Kahlil Watson, SS, Miami Marlins
Watson was my No. 5 prospect in the 2021 draft class, the last player of that consensus top tier to make this list, with Brady House and Jackson Jobe just missing the 50. Watson slipped to 16th overall and an above-slot bonus. I think a number of teams will regret letting him get past their slot.
46. Josiah Gray, RHP, Washington Nationals
Gray was the other co-headlining prospect in the Scherzer-Turner deal and made his MLB debut earlier this week for Washington. He's an above-average-at-everything, late-converting former college shortstop from the 2018 draft who is another strong example of the Dodgers' excellent player development (after they acquired him from Cincinnati).
47. Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox
Casas has had 30-homer-caliber raw power since he was about 15 years old, and he's slowly been proving it at each higher level. There's a good shot he's in the Red Sox's lineup at some point in 2022, and he may be there awhile.
48. Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers
Jung was a top-10 pick two summers ago, and the big question was if he could learn to pull and lift the ball more than he did in college. He's proved the 2020 buzz correct, with nine homers in 38 games this year. Fun fact: His younger brother Jace projects as a top-10 pick in next summer's draft.
49. Cade Cavalli, RHP, Washington Nationals
Cavalli was a rare upside college pitcher in the 2020 draft, and the early returns on the 22nd overall pick have been very positive.
50. Ryan Pepiot, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Pepiot is almost 24 years old, one of the older players considered for this list, but his bat-missing characteristics have always been strong, with a plus three-pitch mix headlined by a plus-plus changeup. The Dodgers have done it again, and Pepiot is in Triple-A, so he could be up this year, if needed.
20 others who were considered
Roansy Contreras, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Cole Winn, RHP, Texas Rangers
George Kirby, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Miami Marlins
Quinn Priester, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Daniel Espino, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Edward Cabrera, RHP, Miami Marlins
Alejandro Kirk, C, Toronto Blue Jays
Austin Wells, C, New York Yankees
Austin Martin, 2B, Minnesota Twins
Royce Lewis, SS, Minnesota Twins
Jordan Groshans, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
Nick Yorke, SS, Boston Red Sox
Greg Jones, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Jasson Dominguez, CF, Yankees
Garrett Mitchell, CF, Milwaukee Brewers
Josh Lowe, CF, Tampa Bay Rays
Jarren Duran, CF, Boston Red Sox
George Valera, RF, Cleveland Indians
Zac Veen, RF, Colorado Rockies