The 2021 MLB draft just ended a couple weeks ago, but draft scouting season never stops.
It would typically start right after the draft in early June, but this year some of it started on the normal schedule, now a month before the July draft, while other events were moved back. Cary, NC is playing host to key events that have many top prospects in one location (2021 MLB Draft Combine, Collegiate USA vs. Olympic USA, MLB's Prospect Development Pipeline tournament/showcase) while others are playing in the Cape Cod League or other college summer leagues.
The last two drafts were tricky for teams in large part due to COVID-shortened summer and spring seasons over the last two years, but things are basically back to normal now.
Here is a snapshot of my early top 100-plus 2022 MLB draft prospects along with my top 50 for the 2023 draft. I decided to go to 105 on this 2022 list since that's about where the talent started to look the same to me and that also goes for the 50 names below for the 2023 draft class.
2022 MLB draft class
So far, the 2022 class looks much deeper than 2021, particularly on the college side, but the early returns on the top of the class are a bit mixed.
Elijah Green is an Adonis with plus-plus power and speed: He may be the most physically-talented prep position player since Justin Upton. The enthusiasm hasn't fully been there from scouts as Green has had swing-and-miss issues during the spring and early in the summer. He isn't seen as a transcendent, well-ahead-of-the-pack type of prospect right now, but just probably still the best, securely in the top tier, where there's about four or five acceptable answers for the best prospect with a good bit of the summer left to go.
Johnson is a squatty, explosive hitter that probably settles at second base, with a mature frame and a big hand move in his swing. His long track record of hitting, young-for-the-class age and explosive hands are his selling points, with a similar profile to Kahlil Watson from the 2021 class. Jung is the younger brother of Rangers prospect and former top-10 pick Josh, also out of Texas Tech. For me, he was the best hitter and also had the best raw power (65-grade) for the Collegiate USA group, but also has a squatty frame and is a below average infield defender. Young has some Jazz Chisholm vibes, with swing-and-miss issues (a worrisome 30% strikeout rate), but big exit velos, in-game power production and a shortstop fit. Berry just transferred from Arizona to LSU with his coach Jay Johnson and prep commit Mikey Romero (15th on the list). Berry has potentially above average hit and power tools with an above average approach and some chance to play third base; think along the lines of J.J. Bleday at the plate.
The last of this top group is the son of former Braves great Andruw Jones. Druw is an elite in-game hitter with great feel for the bat head and above average tools across the board. Like Johnson, he's also been a showcase staple for years in Georgia. At the ninth spot, we have the son of longtime Royals GM Dayton Moore, Arkansas shortstop Robert. He's younger than the other collegiates because he enrolled early and skipped his senior year of high school. Moore is a contact first, productive infielder with plus bat speed and clear speed/defensive value, but limited power, along the lines of Nick Madrigal at the same stage. Tenth overall is another son of a notable big leaguer: the son of Carl Crawford, Justin. Justin may have the second-highest upside of the prep position players behind Green, with plus-plus speed and a loose lefty cut with big bat speed, standing 6-foot-3.
One last note is that the riskiest demographic in the draft, high school pitching, has an elite class that's been pegged as potentially an all-timer years in advance. Ferris is a high-slot lefty that sits in the mid-90s with above average traits across the board. Lesko has been into the high-90s, has had a plus changeup for years and ticks the Jack Leiter/Max Meyer/Walker Buehler boxes in terms of a data-friendly, attacking style, but at 6-foot-3. Porter has been up to 98 mph and also has a plus changeup to go with starter traits. Smith works 92-95 mph with a plus breaker and quality strikes. Ritchie Jr. also sits 92-95 and is above average at everything. Barreira, like Smith, has also been into the mid-90s with a knockout breaker multiple times already this summer. Schultz is a 6-foot-8 lefty that slings above average low-90s sinkers and mid-70s breakers from a low slot, producing elite MLB spin rates on both pitches.
It's basically impossible to find enough teams willing to take a prep pitcher with their first pick to see all seven of them go in the top 20 picks, but this group is talented enough that it could happen. Keep an eye on sleeper prep arms in the New York/New Jersey area in Caden Dana (49th; potentially plus fastball-curve combo), Nazier Mule (65th; up to 99 mph this month from a low slot, solid shortstop prospect as well) and Michael Kennedy (80th; low-90s lefty with a hook and feel).
I include draft day age as a column because it's a huge factor for almost every team on any position players, but matters a lot less for pitchers. Average age for the prep class is around 18 and for the first-time-eligible college players, it's around 21. I'll delve into more detail on this in a future article, as how and why age plays a big role in draft rooms is fascinating and a bit misunderstood.
2023 MLB draft class
Crews was a multi-year standout prep power hitter that had contact concerns later in the process, pulled his name out of the draft when it was clear his price wouldn't be met, then had a huge freshman season for LSU, answering many of those questions. Clark has some Jarred Kelenic vibes at the same stage, but it's obviously still early. Gonzalez was a SoCal prep sleeper with some late buzz in 2020 and had a giant freshman year for Ole Miss. He's a lanky, projectable shortstop with advanced feel for contact from the left side and power potential, though a gap-to-gap approach right now.
Like Robert Moore, Little also early-enrolled at Vanderbilt, so that's why he's a year younger than his collegiate peers. White is one of the more advanced prep pitching prospects in recent memory, a projectable 6-foot-5 with starter traits and above average stuff as a 16-year-old. Bradfield is another youngster (with 80-grade speed) that had a great freshman year for Vanderbilt.
Collier is probably the best pure hitter in the 2023 prep class, but there's a good chance he reclassifies to the 2022 class at some point before the spring. He would be somewhere in the 15-25 area on the 2022 list if he reclassifies as a young-for-the-class, standout hit/power combo with some, but not a ton, of defensive value and a mature frame.
Some of the old-for-the-class, projected-to-not-sign prep prospects from the recent 2021 draft are on this list, like Baumeister at 12, Mooney at 18, Robertson at 33, and the Abner-Saldivar-Hayslip run at the end of the list.
I won't publish a formal 2024 draft list because there's too much guesswork pre-signing deadline on who will get to campus from the 2021 prep class and it's so early for the 2024 prep class that only a few players have emerged as truly elite. The two prep names of note right now are 3B George Wolkow (South Carolina commit), a 6-foot-6 lefty slugger out of Illinois and SS/RHP Bryce Rainer (UCLA commit), a standout two-way talent out of powerhouse program Harvard Westlake (Lucas Giolito, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, Pete Crow-Armstrong) in SoCal.
Quarterback/Slot Receiver/Center Fielder Will Taylor of Clemson and lefty Josh Hartle of Wake Forest are the top projected college prospects for the 2024 class. UCLA's slipping talent base was greatly helped by this incoming prep class, with the Bruins landing four of the top ten incoming freshmen (LHP Gage Jump, SS Cody Schrier, RHP Thatcher Hurd, CF Nick McLain) and another top-30 incoming talent in CF Malakhi Knight.