2021 MLB draft: First-round winners and losers, and Day 2 takeaways

With no clear No. 1 overall pick going into the night, we expected some surprises in the first round of the 2021 MLB draft -- and we were not disappointed.

After a wild run of unexpected picks, intriguing decisions and a couple of notable draft night slides, it's time to take stock of the picks we loved, the ones we don't quite understand and also break down Kiley McDaniel's biggest takeaways of Day 2 of this draft.

Jump to ... Day 2 takeaways

What is one first-round draft pick you look at and immediately like?

McDaniel: Kahlil Watson at 16 to the Marlins is a home run to me. I had him as the No. 5 talent in the draft and he was unquestionably a top-eight talent, and a top-six talent for most. He'll be getting an above-slot bonus, but it's borderline personnel malpractice for him to sail through the seven to 15 area without any team snapping him up. He's the closest thing to C.J. Abrams in this draft, another recent prospect who also fell a little farther than he should've in retrospect.

Schoenfield: Frankly, I like the Pittsburgh Pirates grabbing the best college bat with the first pick in Henry Davis rather than one of the high school shortstops who come with necessary projection. That's the art of the draft, of course, but we've seen several No. 1 high school picks struggle to develop in recent years, so Davis feels like more of a sure -- and safer -- bet. He also has a strong arm and his other defensive issues like pitch framing may be a lot less important if we eventually see robot umpires.

What are some of your other favorite picks from the first night?

McDaniel: I don't know the bonuses here, but assume they'll be a bit overslot for the top two prospects on my board: Marcelo Mayer with the Red Sox and Jordan Lawlar with the D-backs at four and six, respectively. Brady House (the fourth of the four elite prep shortstops along with Watson) getting to the 11th pick with the Nationals was also hard to explain since he's the highest-upside position player in the draft. Colson Montgomery at 22nd overall to the White Sox is another solid value for an intriguing upside prep position player.

Schoenfield: I'm not usually a big fan of "pitchability" college lefties going high in the draft, but I'll make an exception for Kansas State southpaw Jordan Wicks, who went No. 21 to the Chicago Cubs. He throws in the low 90s -- which is fine for a lefty, by the way -- but it's a high-spin fastball that should play above its velocity. Throw in all his other positive attributes and he should reach the Cubs quickly. I also love the Marlins getting Khalil Watson, Kiley's No. 5 player, way down at No. 16. I also like the Mariners taking a bit of a left turn and forgoing the college pitchers they've taken in recent drafts (Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock) and taking high school catcher Harry Ford, who has power and the speed to even move to center field.

It was a night of surprising draft picks, almost from the start. What is one first-round draft pick you look at and immediately question?

Schoenfield: You have to go with the Royals selecting Connecticut prep lefty Frank Mozzicato with the seventh pick -- an amazing rise for a player unknown to many scouts before the start of his high school season. He becomes the highest New England high school pick since pitcher Mark Rogers from Maine went fourth overall in 2004. It's an obvious under-slot selection, but you have to wonder whether the Royals reached a little too much here.

McDaniel: Mozzicato was the big surprise -- at least a half dozen picks before I expected him to be seriously discussed -- but I have to assume he will sign a well-below-slot deal that was done to set up some well-above-slot deals on Day 2. I don't want to judge it yet for that reason, but these follow-up moves better be really compelling to justify not taking the talent that was on the board. Sam Bachman at nine (earlier than I expected), Maddux Bruns at 29 (way earlier than I expected), and Ty Madden at 32 (well later than I expected, and I'm the low guy on him) were other surprising values.

Which unexpected first-round picks might make a lot more sense when the rest of this draft plays out?

McDaniel: Well, this is a nice spot to mention the other likely under-slot deals that could be setting up some overpays on Day 2 or early Day 3. Cowser at No. 5 to Baltimore and Mozzicato to the Royals are the big cuts that probably come with a clear plan for each team of how to spend their bonus pool on their next few picks to take advantage. I'll assume Jackson Merrill (27 to the Padres), Ryan Cusick (24 to the Braves), and Gavin Williams (23 to Cleveland), among others, will also come in a bit below slot.

Schoenfield: I'll be curious to see what the Orioles do. For the second straight year, they went with an under-slot college outfielder -- taking Sam Houston State center fielder Colton Cowser with the fifth pick after taking Heston Kjerstad second overall last year. I don't know: I get the idea of saving money to use later in the draft, but when you're drafting in the top five, you better make sure you're drafting the kid you really want and not just saving money. Those top-five picks HAVE to pan out, especially for a franchise like the Orioles. Kjerstad has been injured and hasn't played this year, so we don't have a read yet on him, while Cowser has a better contact profile than Kjerstad.

What is your biggest overall takeaway from Day 1 of this draft?

McDaniel: The top four prep shortstops are still the defining talents of this draft and will get some of the highest bonuses in the draft, but they ended up going all over the place. Mayer didn't go first as expected and ended up going fourth, Lawlar landed at sixth as expected for the last few weeks despite being a coin flip at the top spot for many, House went outside of the top 10 despite being a consensus top-10 talent, and Watson was a case of highway robbery by the Marlins for an overslot deal at 16th. They were all ranked among my top six players in the draft and are all comfortably on an updated top 100.

Schoenfield: The draft itself is unpredictable in terms of what will happen to these kids as professionals, but now the actual selections feel more unpredictable than ever, especially in a year with no clear No. 1 overall pick. As Kiley and Jeff Passan noted during the broadcast, Watson was a potential first overall pick and slid all the way to No. 16.

Some teams try to play the slot game. Some teams have their models that steer them to certain players or away from others. It was also interesting that some teams went away from their recent comfort zones, such as Cleveland taking a college pitcher instead of a high school player or the Nationals drafting a position player instead of a pitcher. I think the three players I'm most intrigued in tracking early on in their minor league careers are the three college hitters drafted more for their contact skills than their power -- Cowser, Sal Frelick (Milwaukee Brewers) and Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds). Let's hope these guys develop and this new "model" is the right one, because we certainly need more contact hitters in the majors.

What do you make of Kumar Rocker landing with the New York Mets at No. 10?

McDaniel: It's a couple of picks later than where he belonged on talent, but I'm guessing he's getting a solid overslot deal. Since the value worked out, I also think the market/team fit has also worked out since Rocker has been famous since he was hitting the mid-90s on the showcase circuit at 15 years old, all the way to his record-breaking days at Vandy.

Schoenfield: I love it. This is a guy who has performed well on the big stage (other than the finale of the College World Series this year) and it does feel like he got a bit overanalyzed this year when he still put up great numbers for Vanderbilt. You also wonder whether going No. 10 ends up being a little added chip on his shoulder that will help him thrive as a pro.

Which player from this draft class is most likely to win a Cy Young or MVP?

McDaniel: It's a cop out to just take my top-rated pitchers (Jack Leiter and Jackson Jobe) and my top-rated position players (Marcelo Mayer and Jordan Lawlar) -- but that's also the correct way to line guys up for this question.

Schoenfield: Well, some were calling Jobe the best high school pitching prospect in years, so even though high school pitchers are a risky group, he's the Cy Young pick. For MVP, I'll go with Davis -- when he leads the Pirates to the 2027 World Series title. Congrats, Pirates fans!

Kiley McDaniel's Day 2 takeaways

After a wild first day, teams made their overall draft plans clearer on Day 2 by making picks through the 10th round. Teams have, in almost all cases, already agreed to verbal terms with their picks in the top 10 rounds, and thus only they know how much they have left to spend in Rounds 11 through 20.

My two favorite draft classes are by the Pirates, who used the biggest bonus pool in the draft effectively on four primary targets, and the Marlins, who put together a nice class with depth headlined by a huge coup in Kahlil Watson with their first pick at 16th overall. Pittsburgh got savings at the top overall pick with Louisville C Henry Davis, then figured to go overslot for prep lefty Anthony Solometo, prep outfielder Lonnie White Jr., and two-way prep standout Bubba Chandler; I'd assume the latter three all sign for $2-3 million. The Pirates wrapped up with rising prep RHP Owen Kellington in the fourth round, then went with money savers the rest of the way to make the dollars work. Beyond Watson, the Marlins scooped up prep C Joe Mack, Boston College 2B Cody Morissette, prep SS Jordan McCants and a nice collection of later-round college prospects headlined by SEC outfielders Tanner Allen and Brady Allen (unrelated).

I liked the quality depth of the D-backs' draft behind taking my top overall prospect, Jordan Lawlar, at sixth overall. For position players, collegiates Ryan Bliss (SS), Adrian Del Castillo (C) and Caleb Roberts (C), and prep 3B Gavin Conticello were all solid values where they went, and pitchers Jacob Steinmetz, Luke Albright and Hugh Fisher also represented strong values down the board.

The Tigers took several college prospects who were on my radar for fourth to fifth rounds, but there's a good bit of risk at the top with prep righty Jackson Jobe and Texas righty Ty Madden, who will both need strong development to continue progressing. The Royals pulled a risky maneuver with late-rising prep lefty Frank Mozzicato at seventh overall, with those savings spread down the board to Alabama 2B Peyton Wilson and prep RHP Ben Kudrna, C Carter Jensen and RHP Shane Panzini, who all grade as second- to third-round talents.

I tend to always like what Tampa Bay does on the whole, and they added another deep crop of talent. Carson Williams, Cooper Kinney and Ryan Spikes are some of the higher-probability bats among prep infielders, while Washington State infielder Kyle Manzardo qualifies among their college picks. I also tend to like what the Padres do, and they stayed on brand by hunting upside and moving money around. I'll guess prep SS Jackson Merrill is a bit below slot while their second pick, prep OF James Wood, is well above, which explains why 22-year-old college lefty Robert Gasser and 24-year-old college righty Kevin Kopps came next, with more quality college depth to follow.

One more group of teams that stood out were those that stocked up on quality college pitchers. Cleveland has a track record of making the most of this demographic and stacked top-four-round talents in Gavin Williams, Doug Nikhazy, Tommy Mace, Ryan Webb, Tanner Bibee, Jack Leftwich and Rodney Boone. The Giants also have a midas touch with pitchers and rolled with Will Bednar, Matt Mikulski, Mason Black, Eric Silva, Rohan Handa and Seth Lonsway, who were in the top five rounds on my board. The Angels made a risky move up top with Sam Bachman, but played closer to consensus with Ky Bush, Jacob Marceaux and Braden Olthoff (who are starters), Brett Kerry (who may be), and Luke Murphy, Jake Smith, Andrew Peters and Ryan Costieu (who are likely relievers).