With less than three weeks to go in the 2021 MLB regular season, much has changed in the races for baseball's biggest individual awards since the last time we checked in.
Only one race seems clear, and even that one could still change over the stretch run. That refers to the American League Most Valuable Player race, in which Los Angeles Angels' two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani seems to be the clear front-runner, but ... well, have you seen how hot Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays have been lately?
So even the most settled race is not sealed as awards contenders across baseball prepare to make their closing arguments as September turns into October. Today, ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield check in on these races in this month's Awards Watch.
As always, a statistical glimpse of the races is provided using Doolittle AXE ratings. The ratings are prorated for 162 games using season-to-date results, plus a rest-of-season forecast based on anticipated playing time and 2021 performance. Playing time estimates are based on depth chart data from Fangraphs.com.
AL MVP
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Shohei Ohtani, Angels (155)
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (141)
3. Marcus Semien, Blue Jays (138)
4 (tie). Jose Ramirez, Indians (136)
Carlos Correa, Astros (136)
6. Aaron Judge, Yankees (135)
7. Cedric Mullins, Orioles (133)
8. Matt Olson, Athletics (132)
9. Jorge Polanco, Twins (131)
10. Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox (128)
Possible pitchers: Gerrit Cole, Yankees (137), Robbie Ray, Blue Jays (132)
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook
Ohtani -5000
Vlad Jr. +550
Devers +15000
Bogaerts +15000
Correa +15000
Yordan Alvarez, Astros +15000
What AXE sees: The only thing that has really changed since our last edition is that Semien's power surge has closed the gap between him and Guerrero, his younger teammate. Still, while Semien offers more defensive value as a middle infielder, voters aren't likely to split the Toronto vote all that much. Guerrero is the MVP of the team. And both are looking up at Ohtani, who is one of 10 AL players whose hitting-only AXE (not overall value, just hitting) is at least 140, and one of 13 AL players with a pitching-only AXE of at least 125. Add in an AL-leading total in wins probability added for hitting and a No. 20 ranking in that measure for pitching, and it's an overwhelming combination.
What Dave says: Ohtani looked like the landslide leader and probable unanimous selection the last time we did this. While I still think he's the favorite, the freight train has slowed a little bit. Over the past 30 days heading into Tuesday, he's hit a more pedestrian .222/.355/.422 with six home runs in 26 games, while his ERA has risen from 2.93 to 3.36, mostly the result of his last start against Houston when the Astros knocked him around for six runs.
Meanwhile, Guerrero Jr. has continued to rake -- along with the rest of the red-hot Blue Jays lineup -- and has a chance at the Triple Crown, leading the AL in batting average, leading Ohtani 45 to 44 in home runs and trailing Jose Abreu by four RBIs. Semien has a strong MVP case as well and has closed in on Ohtani in Baseball-Reference WAR (7.8 to 6.7). If the surging Blue Jays fly into the playoffs while Ohtani continues to slow down here, that could help Guerrero and/or Semien at least pick up a few first-place votes. Still, it will be nearly impossible to deny Ohtani when he ends up with perhaps 50 home runs and 11 or so wins as a pitcher over 130 innings.
Last word from Brad: In the intro we suggested that this isn't quite a closed case. The sliver of hope for Guerrero looks like this: A massive finish that lands him the Triple Crown, features a couple of highlight-dominating clutch blows, propels the Blue Jays to the top wild-card slot and is combined with continued struggles by Ohtani. And even that might not be enough, because what Ohtani has done is just that unique.
NL MVP
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (141)
2. Bryce Harper, Phillies (138)
3. Juan Soto, Nationals (136)
4. (tie) Brandon Crawford, Giants (131)
Max Muncy, Dodgers (131)
6. (tie) Bryan Reynolds, Pirates (130)
Trea Turner, Dodgers (130)
8. Freddie Freeman, Braves (128)
9. Manny Machado, Padres (127)
10. (tie) Willy Adames, Brewers (126)
Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals (126)
Possible pitchers: Zack Wheeler, Phillies (143), Max Scherzer, Dodgers (134), Walker Buehler, Dodgers (133), Jacob deGrom, Mets (132), Kevin Gausman, Giants (131), Brandon Woodruff, Brewers (129), Wade Miley, Reds (129)
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook
Tatis Jr -180
Harper +280
Freeman +1000
Muncy +1200
Soto +3000
Turner +4000
What AXE sees: Pitchers have hung around the top of the NL AXE leaderboard all season, but in reality, the only hurler with a real shot at landing an MVP award was probably deGrom, had he stayed healthy. Instead, it remains an open race that could be swayed in the minds of voters by narrative. The metrics are close enough for that to happen.
Last time, the biggest concern about Tatis was his health, and while that's forced him to log time in the San Diego outfield, his performance at the plate has never waned. As for Harper, no one has been as hot as him over the past few weeks and the fact that the Phillies rate as a fringe wild-card contender is certainly not his fault.
To quantify the narrative aspect: Tatis leads the NL in championship probability added, per baseball-reference.com. Right behind him: Harper. A couple of key moments in playoff relevant games for either player would be enough to decide the winner in this performance-plus-narrative measure.
What Dave says: Nobody has made a run to challenge Tatis and Harper, so even though the Padres and Phillies may both miss the playoffs, they feel like the co-favorites. If either of their teams do make it, that could be the difference-maker. Fun fact: Given Ohtani's status as the AL favorite, we could end up with both MVPs from non-playoff teams. The last time that happened was 1987 with George Bell and Andre Dawson.
It's worth noting that Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs value Harper much differently. B-R has him at 4.8 WAR, which ranks eighth among NL position players heading into Tuesday. FanGraphs has him first at 5.7, just ahead of Tatis. The difference is primarily in the defensive evaluation. For what it's worth, Statcast's Out Above Average metric ranks Harper in just the fourth percentile of outfielders, so it would agree that Harper is a below-average right fielder.
I think this is one where voters might have to really drill deep into the numbers. Harper, for example, has hit .228 with three home runs and three RBIs in 16 games against the Braves. He's hit .195 against the Mets. Should that work against him that he hasn't hit his best against teams the Phillies needed most to beat?
Last word from Brad: Totally up in the air. It kind of feels like folks are itching to give Tatis the vote, if only as a kind of coronation that recognizes him as one of the new faces of baseball. And that may be true, but Harper's game has gone to that level where he has rarely been, and it's one that few players can reach. What happens from here on out will determine how this plays out, but right now Tatis looks like a soft favorite.
AL Cy Young
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Gerrit Cole, Yankees (137)
2. Robbie Ray, Blue Jays (132)
3. (tie) Carlos Rodon, White Sox (129)
Lance Lynn, White Sox (129)
Nathan Eovaldi, Red Sox (129)
6. Shohei Ohtani, Angels (123)
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook
Cole -135
Ray +160
Lynn +325
Rodon +1400
Ohtani +5000
Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays +10000
What AXE sees: It's pretty close. Fangraphs likes Cole a good bit better, actually rates Ray behind Rodon and Eovaldi as well and is even with Lynn. Baseball Reference has Ray atop the list, but also has him and Cole way out in front of everyone else. You gotta love metrics. The narrative measures -- win probability added and championship probability added -- are very close, and perhaps the outcome of the wild-card race in the AL will play into how the voting shakes out.
What Dave says: In the traditional stats (W-L record, ERA, strikeouts, innings), it's basically a toss-up between Ray and Cole, who rank 1-2 in ERA, 1-2 in strikeouts while Cole leads in wins and Ray in innings. In the advanced metrics, Ray leads in Baseball-Reference WAR (6.3 to 5.7) while Cole leads in FanGraphs WAR (5.2 to 3.7) -- which downgrades Ray because he's allowed 27 home runs, leading to a 3.45 Fielding Independent Pitching that is much higher than his 2.69 ERA.
It will be interesting to see which narrative may help each player. Cole has never won a Cy Young Award, finishing fifth, second and fourth the past three seasons, so voters may think he finally deserves one as the consensus best pitcher in the AL. Ray, coming off last year's disastrous season, is the bigger surprise, which can also help, since his season stands out so much from his previous level of performance. For now, I give the slight edge to Cole, due to his across-the-board excellence, but this still feels like it remains undecided. A couple of clutch starts with both the Yankees and Blue Jays fighting for a wild card could sway the undecided voters.
Last word from Brad: There's no doubt that Ray has pitched better than Cole going back over a fairly long period of most recent results. For example: Since June 1, Ray sports a 2.21 ERA, while Cole is at 3.58, and Ray has logged quite a few more innings during that span. Still, we don't measure from June 1 -- we consider the whole season and right now Cole has a narrow advantage. But this race is far from over.
NL Cy Young
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (143)
2. Corbin Burnes, Brewers (140)
3. Max Scherzer, Dodgers (134)
4. Walker Buehler, Dodgers (133)
5. Jacob deGrom, Mets (132)
6. Kevin Gausman, Giants (131)
7. (tie) Brandon Woodruff, Brewers (129)
Wade Miley, Reds (129)
9. (tie) Julio Urias, Dodgers (124)
Adam Wainwright, Cardinals (124)
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook
Scherzer +140
Burnes +190
Buehler +250
Woodruff +1400
Wheeler +1400
Gausman +5000
What AXE sees: As you can see from the current Vegas futures, there is quite a disconnect between the metrics and the perception of this race. Frankly, it's a muddle. AXE seeks to balance out the various methodological quirks of the leading metrics -- that's the reason it exists. But when you have measurements as disparate as the Fangraphs NL pitching WAR leaderboard and its counterpart at Baseball Reference, it's simply going to be a matter of voters digging deeper.
Nevertheless, it's possible the metrics and the narrative will match up by the end of the season. Scherzer is the reason for that. He's on another planet right now, with a 6-0 mark over eight starts as a Dodger with a 0.88 ERA to go with 72 strikeouts against just five walks over 51 innings. Vegas already tabs Scherzer as the favorite and given the roll he's on, that status could solidify across the board by the time the regular season is complete.
What Dave says: Scherzer was kind of an afterthought in the Cy Young race when the Nationals traded him to the Dodgers -- but not because he was pitching poorly. He was 8-4 with a 2.76 ERA when he was dealt to L.A., but that put him firmly in fifth or sixth at best with so many NL starters having strong seasons. Since the trade, however, he has had a run for the ages. Suddenly he's 14-4, flirted with a perfect game, reached 3,000 career strikeouts and leads the NL in ERA (he's never won an ERA title).
On the other hand, how can voters avoid Burnes' pure dominance? He leads the NL in both fewest walks per nine AND most strikeouts per nine. The only pitcher to do that: Walter Johnson, 108 years ago. To top it off, however, he also leads in fewest home runs per nine. The knock against him is that he's not even in the top 10 in innings, which could help Wheeler and Buehler in comparison to Scherzer and Burnes. Right now, I think it's Scherzer-Burnes-Buehler-Wheeler, but all four could get first-place votes.
Last word from Brad: Everything is lining up for Scherzer. He's the pedigree as one of baseball's preeminent aces. The spotlight he's under as the Dodgers battle the Giants for the NL West crown and the top overall seed in the postseason is a bright one. But it's really looking like Cy Young No. 4 for Scherzer. However, as Dave points out, if Scherzer falters even a little, the NL is loaded with aces having huge seasons and would be prepared to burst through that opening.
AL Rookie of the Year
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Randy Arozarena, Rays (118)
2. (tie) Luis Garcia, Astros (115)
Adolis Garcia, Rangers (115)
4. (tie) Wander Franco, Rays (114)
Garrett Whitlock, Red Sox (114),
What AXE sees: If you take the season as a whole, it's an absolute crapshoot. But Franco didn't even debut as a big leaguer until June 22. Yet he's right in this muddle of AXE. Still, Arozarena has logged similar percentages over many more plate appearances, and Garcia has been a much-needed rotation fixture for Houston. By the metrics, it's a virtual toss-up.
What Dave says: Franco turned it on since the previous Awards Watch, reaching base in 39 consecutive games until going down with a hamstring strain last week. The streak is still active, but Franco may be out until the postseason. He's only played 62 games and the only comparable Rookie of the Year winner would be Willie McCovey, who won in 1959 playing just 52 games. That might make Arozarena the favorite, and to be fair, he's been very good at the plate with a .274/.355/.464 line and 19 home runs. I think two starters, Garcia of the Astros and Shane McClanahan of the Rays (yes, that's three candidates from Tampa Bay) are a step behind the position players. With a nod to Franco's future greatness, I'd go Franco-Arozarena-Garcia.
Last word from Brad: Just how bad do the voters want to give this award to Franco? He's been terrific, to be sure, solidifying his status as the game's top prospect. His historic on-base streak had him mentioned in the same paragraphs as Mickey Mantle most days. Still, Arozarena has played about as well and has been doing it over a span of quite a few more games. That gap is only getting wider with Franco on the IL. The AL's best rookie is Franco, but Arozarena seems likely to be the Rookie of the Year.
NL Rookie of the Year
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Jonathan India, Reds (124)
2. Trevor Rogers, Marlins (118)
3. Patrick Wisdom, Cubs (111)
4. (tie) Edmundo Sosa, Cardinals (109)
Ian Anderson, Braves (109)
What AXE sees: In our last Awards Watch, India and Rogers were neck and neck, but India seemed to have the momentum. That dynamic has continued, as Rogers has barely pitched and India's six-point edge in AXE lines up with traditional measures and perception. Also, India's status as a regular on a wild-card contender gives him an edge in the narrative metrics over the rest of the field.
What Dave says: Rogers has pitched just 17⅓ innings in the second half as the Marlins limited his innings and partial-season pitchers don't usually win, even with Rogers' otherwise strong numbers. That makes Reds second baseman India the favorite, with a strong .273/.379/.468 line, his OBP boosted by 19 HBPs. Nobody else feels close to those two, although Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson has played well with a .366 OBP -- a good sign for the future of the Cincinnati offense, coming up with two good OBP rookies in the same season.
Last word from Brad: At this point, India looks like a no-brainer. If he remains that way, India would join quite a list of Cincinnati rookies of the year: Frank Robinson, Pete Rose, Tommy Helms, Johnny Bench, Pat Zachry, Chris Sabo and Scott Williamson.