Major League Baseball teams have now played about 34 games each. In a normal season, the last thing we'd be focused on right now is postseason awards. As has been written ad infinitum this summer, this is not a normal season. In fact, we're down to the stretch run. Thus, strange as it seems, we have to take these results of barely more than a month and start to view them through the prism of postseason honors.
There are a couple of obvious ramifications from this. First, there are invariably going to be some surprising names you might never associate with a label like "MVP" or "Cy Young" who show up as contenders. Players we'd normally look at and say, "great start, good luck keeping it up" instead need only to perpetuate their auspicious beginnings for a few more weeks.
The other consequence is that the picture can change drastically with the results of a single night. That's especially true for pitchers. Take, for example, Reds starter Sonny Gray. Prior to his outing on Tuesday, he was clearly in a fairly crowded group of National League pitchers positioned for Cy Young contention. This was based on seven starts, during which he was 5-1 with a 1.93 ERA. Then came Tuesday ... and the Cardinals shelled Gray, hanging six runs on him over just ⅔ of an inning. Now he's 5-2 with a 3.19 ERA.
Things don't move as quickly for position players but, still, a five-RBI game that includes some late-game heroics can have quite an effect on how a player rates. Thus the leaderboards that follow must be considered snapshots. Look fast, because tomorrow they could look very different.
Also, for now, we're punting the question of whether a pitcher might win an MVP award, so hitters are the only ones listed under the MVP sections. But the AXE metrics listed indicate whether this debate might be rekindled later in the season.
AL MVP
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Anthony Rendon, Angels (132)
2. Nelson Cruz, Twins (132)
3. Luis Robert, White Sox (132)
4. Brandon Lowe, Rays (132)
5. Kyle Lewis, Mariners (130)
6. Jose Abreu, White Sox (128)
7. Tim Anderson, White Sox (127)
8. David Fletcher, Angels (127)
9. Alex Verdugo, Red Sox (125)
10. Willy Adames, Rays (125)
Note: Shane Bieber was not included in this formula but is also a top contender.
Why AXE likes Anthony Rendon: It barely does! Rendon leads by decimal points, but the order of the top seven players could scramble with the results of any one game. A lot of Rendon's early value in the leading versions of WAR are because of some great defensive metrics, which aren't going to jump out as much for voters. That and the Angels' poor record will hurt him if other players are close. And plenty of them are. For now, the fun part of these rankings is the presence of two rookies in Robert and Lewis. There have been just two rookie MVPs in baseball history: Fred Lynn, for the 1975 Red Sox, and Ichiro Suzuki, for the 2001 Mariners (and Suzuki was hardly a conventional rookie).
What Schoenfield says: Rendon has been terrific, no doubt, but let's face it: He has zero chance of winning MVP honors. His triple-slash line is fine, especially his OBP, which is well over .400, but his counting stats for home runs, RBIs and runs are not impressive. Oh, and the Angels are a colossal disappointment. Yes, Mike Trout won an MVP last season for a sub-.500 team, but his numbers were too good to ignore.
Cruz has been the best hitter in the league, and has carried a Twins offense that has otherwise not produced like it did in 2019, but his designated hitter status will hurt. Think of David Ortiz, who came close with five consecutive top-five MVP finishes from 2003 to 2007 but never won. Or consider a more recent example, Ortiz's final season of 2016, when he led the American League in OPS and RBIs, and finished just sixth in the voting.
That might make Robert the favorite among position players, despite an OBP that is much lower than you usually see from an MVP winner. Still, his defense is absolutely elite, he has the power numbers and the WAR numbers, and the White Sox have been terrific. We'll see how pitchers adjust to him in his second month, but Robert has an all-around game that voters will love. One caveat is a player not included in the above list: Cleveland pitcher Shane Bieber, who is 6-0 with a 1.20 ERA and a ridiculous 84 K's in 52⅔ innings. Robert has been a revelation, but Bieber has been the most valuable player in the league. This might be a Justin Verlander-like landslide in the end.
Last word from Doolittle: As Dave alludes to, if we included pitchers in the MVP rankings this time around, Bieber would be the far-and-away leader in AXE. At the very least, I think we can say that no player has dominated his position to the degree Bieber has among starting pitchers. This could be the season for a pitcher to sneak in and grab the award, if no consensus choice emerges among position players. Rendon's analytical case isn't going to win over voters. It could come down to narrative, which right now would seem to favor Robert because the White Sox are the AL's emergent team and that's always an attention-grabber. One thing working against any AL player in the narrative sense is that there might not be any drama in the postseason race. As of today, this race remains wide open.
NL MVP
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (148)
2. Mike Yastrzemski, Giants (144)
3. Mookie Betts, Dodgers (142)
4. Ian Happ, Cubs (131)
5. Jesse Winker, Reds (130)
6. Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals (129)
7. Jake Cronenworth, Padres (129)
8. Manny Machado, Padres (128)
9. Trevor Story, Rockies (128)
10. Trea Turner, Nationals (128)
Why AXE likes Fernando Tatis Jr.: Right now, Tatis leads what is shaping up as a great race for National League MVP honors because he has the best combination of offense, defense and narrative. That final item is represented empirically by win probability added in this system. Among the leaders in AXE, Yastrzemski is the runaway leader in WPA, but his offensive numbers aren't quite at Tatis' level, and Tatis has better (and much-improved) defensive metrics, plus more positional value. Betts is right there with both of them and has the added edge of a stronger track record to suggest his score is the one most likely to remain this high.
What Schoenfield says: As the AXE numbers indicate, the top of the NL race has stronger candidates than the AL race. With all due respect to Yastrzemski, who is a great story as a late bloomer at age 30, this feels like a two-player race at the moment. AXE gives the clear lead to Tatis over Betts, and the narrative also clearly belongs to Tatis. It's not just his statistics, but everything that goes with it: the spectacular highlights, the youth, the Padres being on track for the second-best record in the league after not finishing above .500 since 2010. At 21, Tatis would be the youngest MVP ever, an honor that currently belongs to Vida Blue.
Can anyone else jump in? If Tatis slumps in September, I'd point to Padres teammate Machado, who is closing in on Tatis' offensive numbers during his current hot streak. (Machado hit .481 with six home runs and 17 RBIs over his final 13 games in August as the Padres went 10-3.) Juan Soto would be an even bigger long shot. He's been the best hitter in the league, but he missed time at the start of the season due to COVID-19, and the Nationals might not even make the postseason. But if he ends up leading in average, OBP and slugging while ranking among league leaders in home runs and RBIs, he has a shot.
Last word from Doolittle: If Tatis keeps doing what he's been doing, he'll win it. Betts would have to have a monster September in that scenario. Like Robert, Tatis has the gloss that comes with being a breakout star on a newly emergent power. The Dodgers' proclivity for making a shambles of regular-season races probably works against Betts.
AL Cy Young
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Shane Bieber, Indians (154)
2. Lance Lynn, Rangers (136)
3. Zack Greinke, Astros (130)
4. Kenta Maeda, Twins (128)
5. Dallas Keuchel, White Sox (128)
6. Dylan Bundy, Angels (126)
7. Zach Plesac, Indians (125)
8. Framber Valdez, Astros (125)
9. Liam Hendriks, A's (125)
10. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Blue Jays (124)
Why AXE likes Shane Bieber: AXE might not be all-knowing, but it knows how to recognize the contributions of a starting pitcher with a 1.20 ERA and a 1.74 FIP. Bieber is striking out 14.4 batters per nine innings and even leads AL pitchers in win probability added. This is all based on just eight outings, but for the time being, no one else is even close.
What Schoenfield says: Bieber is the runaway leader at the moment and he'll also benefit from facing a lot of weak offenses the rest of the way. The Indians have one series left against the Twins (who haven't been hitting anyway) and one against the White Sox. His next start is Saturday against the Brewers, who are on pace to challenge the lowest team batting average ever. After that, he lines up against the Royals (unless the Indians push him back a day to face the Twins), and then the Cubs, Tigers and Pirates if he pitches every fifth day.
Last word from Doolittle: Bieber is easily the biggest no-brainer among any awards race right now. If he doesn't falter, no one will catch him.
NL Cy Young
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Max Fried, Braves (146)
2. Yu Darvish, Cubs (142)
3. Aaron Nola, Phillies (134)
4. Jacob deGrom, Mets (133)
5. Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks (130)
6. Trevor Bauer, Reds (127)
7. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (127)
8. Sonny Gray, Reds (125)
9. Antonio Senzatela, Rockies (123)
10. Max Scherzer, Nationals (122)
Why AXE likes Max Fried: Fried has been spot-on for an injury-ravaged Braves rotation that other than him has been a bastion of chaos. His FanGraphs WAR is right there with Darvish and deGrom atop the National League, but Baseball Reference's WAR has Fried head and shoulders above everyone in the Senior Circuit. Among the leaders, deGrom is the one performing closest to his projection, which suggests he's most likely to maintain his current course.
What Schoenfield says: This is the most wide-open race, with a half-dozen strong candidates. I know voters have been willing to dismiss wins in recent years -- deGrom won the past two years with just 10 and 11 wins, respectively -- but I wonder in this weird two-month season if wins will play a factor. Fried is 6-0 and Darvish is 6-1, while deGrom has once again been plagued by a lack of run support and is just 2-1. It will just feel weird giving it to deGrom if he finishes 4-2 or something.
Fried is interesting in that he doesn't have the dominant strikeout rate of Darvish or deGrom, but he also hasn't allowed a home run. Indeed, he's been superb at inducing soft contact. He's allowed a .199 average, but his expected batting average against based on Statcast metrics is .202, so he's been legit, even if he doesn't miss as many bats as some others. As with Bieber, Fried will benefit from facing some mediocre lineups -- the Braves are done with the Phillies, have played their series against the Yankees and Rays, and have two series remaining against the Marlins and Nationals.
Last word from Doolittle: I'm on record as saying that at the moment, if there is one pitcher I'd want to start a big game, it's deGrom. Still, this season his non-wins résumé doesn't tower above other NL Cy Young contenders as it has the past couple of years. He's been great, exactly as great the projections suggested he would be. But Fried, Darvish and Nola have been as good and done so on better teams. You have to wonder if Fried might get a narrative bump for being the tetherball pole of the Braves' rotation -- the guy who keeps the ball from flying into oblivion. But don't sleep on Nola, who has been overshadowed by deGrom the past couple of years. He's been consistently dominant, pitches on a team that is in a race for a playoff slot and works deep into games. It could come down to how the Mets and Phillies finish relative to each other in the postseason chase.
AL Rookie of the Year
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Luis Robert, White Sox (132)
2. Kyle Lewis, Mariners (130)
3. Jordan Romano, Blue Jays (116)
4. Jonathan Hernandez, Rangers (115)
5. Andre Scrubb, Astros (111)
Why AXE likes Luis Robert: The order of the AL's standout rookies flipped over the past couple of days, largely due to Robert's late-game heroics on Monday against Minnesota. It's shaping up as a great race. Robert has a big edge in defensive metrics. Despite Roberts' recent clutch play, Lewis actually has the edge in win probability added. For what it's worth, Robert's projected AXE (119) was far better than Lewis' (94), so his level of play is less of a surprise.
What Schoenfield says: Two exciting center fielders, but while Lewis is toiling on a bad team, Robert is headed to the postseason. That's not usually a factor in Rookie of the Year voting like it is in choosing an MVP, but if the two remain close, that could be the decisive edge for Robert. As Brad suggests, Robert is also more likely to keep this up than Lewis, whose expected numbers based on his quality of contact are well below what he's produced so far. As Lewis' BABIP regresses, so will the rest of his triple-slash line.
Last word from Doolittle: It would be great if Lewis could maintain most of his early pace and continue it forward because the Mariners could really use a must-watch player. Nevertheless, this is Robert's race to lose. The one thing that gives you pause is that Robert's tendency to give away at-bats could spiral into a prolonged slump, which would really stand out in a season like this. Lewis has a 90-point edge in OBP over Robert, and that would overwhelm Robert's edge on defense if the latter saw his on-base rate dip near .300.
NL Rookie of the Year
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Jake Cronenworth, Padres (129)
2. Tony Gonsolin, Dodgers (117)
3. Kwang-Hyun Kim, Cardinals (111)
4. Dustin May, Dodgers (111)
5. Devin Williams, Brewers (110)
Why AXE likes Jake Cronenworth: Cronenworth has raked, hitting .356/.411/.624 with Statcast indicators suggesting he just might maintain a heady course. May is the leader among rookies from high up on prospect lists, but overall, the NL rookie picture is tepid. So far.
What Schoenfield says: Sign me up for the Jake Cronenworth fan club. The Tommy Pham trade looks like it might now go down as the Jake Cronenworth trade. There's nothing fluky in what he's done so far, as his expected wOBA and expected batting average both rank in the 100th percentile. He barrels up the baseball, he doesn't strike out much, his sprint speed is in the 93rd percentile and his defensive metrics at second are very good. Yes, we have to expect some regression, but he looks like the real deal.
So are May and Gonsolin, and the Dodgers showed confidence in the two rookies by trading away Ross Stripling. Gonsolin has pitched only 17 innings so far, however, and May's peripheral stats aren't as impressive as his ERA. Plus, voters usually side with the position player over the pitcher in Rookie of the Year voting if it's a close race. See Yordan Alvarez over John Means last year (Means led in WAR, 5.0 to 3.7); Pete Alonso over Mike Soroka (understandable, although Soroka had the slight edge in WAR); Ronald Acuna Jr. over Walker Buehler in 2018 (close in WAR). So I'll go with Cronenworth to keep hitting and end up winning this one.
Last word from Doolittle: While Cronenworth shows zero evidence that he's going to run into a wall, we should probably still consider this an open race. And it's one where some latecomer could crash the party down the stretch. Two pitchers who have come up recently and been terrific are worth watching: Miami's Sixto Sanchez and Atlanta's Ian Anderson. Also, a big final month for Philadelphia third baseman Alec Bohm could inject that large lad into this conversation. Still, right now Cronenworth looks like a clear front-runner.