So far during the 2020 Major League Baseball season, 26 of my top 100 prospects have made their big league debuts, seven more have played this year but debuted in 2019, and four more debuted last year and haven't played this season because of injury. One more -- New York Yankees RHP Clarke Schmidt -- must have vanished because there's no explanation for why he isn't in the big leagues. Expanded rosters, the lack of a minor league season and diminished transactions made for more chances for young players to play, helping explain why more than a third of this winter's top 100 already have big league time under their belts. Here's a quick journey through those 26 players making their MLB debuts in 2020, what they've done, and what you can expect going forward.
Note: Number listed is player's ranking on McDaniel's preseason top 100 list.
4. Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Oakland Athletics: Luzardo has met expectations thus far, slotting into the contending A's rotation with a sub-4.00 ERA and peripherals to match. His velocity is sitting 94-98 mph and he's generating an overall whiff rate in the top 25% of the league, per Baseball Savant.
5. Luis Robert, CF, Chicago White Sox: Robert has had expected contact issues, with a whiff rate in the worst 1% of the league and a strikeout rate in the bottom 4%. All of his other percentile rankings on Baseball Savant -- measuring hard contact, power, speed and defense -- are in the top 15% of the league, easily overcoming the contact issues. Entering Tuesday's games, he was ninth in MLB in FanGraphs WAR (1.7) and first among rookies, so these first 33 games have been a wild success.
6. Nate Pearson, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays: Pearson had a strong big league debut, then was progressively worse in his next three before going on the shelf with an elbow issue. He's back throwing on flat ground and his stuff was good this year, but the consistency of execution varied from pitch to pitch.
7. Joey Bart, C, San Francisco Giants: Bart came up a little over a week ago and hasn't been that good by any metric in such an obviously small amount of playing time, but he wasn't expected to stand out at the plate early in his career. His value right now is as a defender and power threat, one that should grow into more contact on the job in the big leagues.
10. Jo Adell, LF, Los Angeles Angels: Adell also had short-term concerns on his contact rate like Bart and Robert, as Adell took time to acclimate at each minor league level. You can see his upside pretty clearly with top-tier sprint speed and exit velocity scores, but everything else is well below average with a .505 OPS through 20 games.
11. Luis Patino, RHP, San Diego Padres: Patino is one of many exciting young Padres, featuring arguably the best raw stuff in the minor leagues entering 2020. He has worked out of the pen for San Diego, throwing fastballs whose velocity sits at 95-99 mph with elite spin, but walks have been an issue.
14. Casey Mize, RHP, Detroit Tigers: Many of the prospects in this range were expected to have a bit of a break-in period in the big leagues, while Mize is maybe atop the list of being expected to hit the ground running with a polished, plus pitch mix and command. He struck out seven over 4⅓ innings in his debut, showing a swing-and-miss splitter and cutter to go with a 93-95 mph heater, but he has given up three homers in three starts over 10⅔ innings, with peripherals that suggest it wasn't a fluke.
17. Cristian Pache, CF, Atlanta Braves: Pache came up and had four plate appearances over two games before being sent back down, so not much has changed in his outlook. He's swing-happy and still learning to get to his power in games, but has top-of-the-scale speed, defense and arm strength.
19. Dustin May, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers: I wrote an in-depth breakdown of May a few weeks ago. He has elite spin on his upper-90s sinker and curveball (which he doesn't throw much), relying more on a mid-90s cutter and low-90s changeup in a power version of the pitch-to-contact sinkerballer archetype.
21. Spencer Howard, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies: Similar to Mize, the results haven't been great because of a homer problem in a small sample (five home runs allowed in four starts over 16⅔ IP) with the barreling rate and exit velocities to back it up. Similar to Mize, there also isn't a strike-throwing issue and the stuff is still firm, so it looks more like growing pains.
26. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates: Hayes debuted Tuesday night (hitting a homer and double), so it's still a bit early for conclusions. His skill set is headlined by strong contact and elite defensive ability at the hot corner, with lift and power at the plate as the question marks.
28. Dylan Carlson, LF, St. Louis Cardinals: Carlson seemed like a solid bet to hit the ground running in the big leagues, as more of a hitter who can loft the ball than a pure masher with iffy contact skills like Bart or Adell. If you're sensing a theme, Carlson has been pretty bad and the underlying stats aren't that good either, in admittedly a small sample (a .498 OPS in 73 plate appearances over 21 games).
33. Luis Campusano, C, San Diego Padres: Came up a played one game before going in the IL with a wrist injury but hit a homer in his MLB debut that was 101 mph off the bat. The raw power and arm strength are both plus, the contact ability has always been good, the pitch selection took a step forward in 2019, but Campy jumped from High-A to the big leagues, so there's still some uncertainty about exactly how the bat will play, in addition to his receiving being the weakness in his profile. Having veterans in Austin Nola and Jason Castro allows for Campusano to be eased in defensively and Mitch Moreland as a lefty DH leaves an opening for a platoon role for Campusano if he excels offensively.
34. Daulton Varsho, C, Arizona Diamondbacks Varsho came up to be a fill-in at a number of positions and is now rotating between DH, catcher and outfield. He's a plus runner with elite contact skills and gap power, but has just 33 plate appearances over 16 games, so it has been hard to show what he can do (.449 OPS). He figures to play more after the Starling Marte trade.
37. Jazz Chisholm, SS, Miami Marlins: Like Hayes, Chisholm debuted Tuesday night, so it's still early for reviews since we don't have much to go on from the alternate site. Chisholm has above-average raw power, speed and defensive ability at shortstop, but he's a late-count hitter with loft to a swing that has associated contact issues.
42. Alec Bohm, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies: Bohm has played in only 16 games so far, but he has continued to show good control of the strike zone with medium power, as in the minors. He has the raw power to potentially hit 30 homers, but has opted to lean into making more contact. Keep an eye on his defense at the hot corner as many scouts think he'll have to move to first base in the coming years.
45. Deivi Garcia, RHP, New York Yankees: Garcia is a little dynamo, generously listed at 5-foot-9 and 163 pounds, with a plus three-pitch mix, a quick tempo on the mound and support from Pedro Martinez on Twitter. Due to his stature, it's unlikely he'll be a 200-inning stalwart, but every other element is here to start, so a useful Swiss Army knife like peak Rich Hill or Lance McCullers Jr. makes sense as a projection.
47. Nick Madrigal, 2B, Chicago White Sox: As a subject for evaluation, Madrigal is polarizing in the industry because he has one elite skill in his otherworldly ability to make contact at the plate, and accordingly he has very little power. I ranked him this high because he's also a plus runner and defender with good makeup and high-contact prospects are often underrated by people like me. He missed three weeks with a separated shoulder but returned on Sunday. Through nine games he's hitting .394, but that's not a big enough sample to change anything.
49. Ian Anderson, RHP, Atlanta Braves: In a year with an unreasonable amount of attrition among starting pitching, the Braves needed Anderson to succeed this year and, through two MLB starts, he's doing it. Anderson is now the No. 2 starter for a playoff team, working at the top of the zone with a 93-95 mph heater and relying mostly on a plus changeup below the zone, mixing in an average curveball occasionally.
55. Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Miami Marlins Through two MLB starts, Sanchez is already a Pitching Ninja favorite with a visually pleasing, plus three-pitch mix headlined by an upper-90s heater. Sanchez is ranked this low due to a lengthy (but not serious) injury history and a surprisingly hittable fastball. He has dominated through 12 innings, but his weakness in the early going has been giving up hard-hit balls, so keep an eye on how that develops.
64. Evan White, 1B, Seattle Mariners: White got a six-year extension before he made his MLB debut this spring, so it's clear what the Mariners thought of their 2017 first-round pick. Power was the hole in his profile but his 2019 and 2020 exit velocities have been excellent, along with his elite defensive work at first base. Now the issue is contact, with an unacceptable 41% strikeout rate leading to a .584 OPS. Heat maps show that he's having trouble making contact with elevated fastballs (the pitch most in vogue in the league) and doing damage on pitches low and away. Given his contract, he'll get more time to work out these kinks.
77. Keibert Ruiz, C, Los Angeles Dodgers: Ruiz hit a homer in his big league debut but has played in only one other game since then, and was quickly optioned. A lot of his value comes from framing pitches, which could be drummed out of the league by automatic strike calling, so there isn't a ton of margin for error for him at the plate in regards to his overall value. The good news is Ruiz has at least plus contact skills and enough plate discipline to let it shine through, but Will Smith and Austin Barnes are doing fine for the Dodgers for now. As a switch-hitter who is on the 40-man, there's still a decent shot Ruiz gets another chance later this year.
78. Tyler Stephenson, C, Cincinnati Reds: Stephenson came up to fill in behind the plate and hit a homer in the one game of his MLB career thus far. He has elite raw power and arm strength to go with solid receiving and hitting abilities, though his current hitting approach doesn't create much in-game power. Stephenson is already on the 40-man, so he could get the call at any time, could be a useful power bench bat down the stretch, and could be an every-day MLB option as soon as 2021. Tucker Barnhart is his biggest competition, and he's been below replacement level two of the past three seasons, per FanGraphs.
79. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Detroit Tigers: Skubal was bombed in his debut and has given up a homer in each of his three starts, but the results have gotten better each time out. His fastball velocity continues to spike, now averaging 95.2 mph, which he adds to feel for his craft and a couple kinds of deception (lift to the fastball, plus he hides the ball well), but his off-speed stuff is just around average. The concern is there won't be many whiffs in the big leagues, and that has been the case so far, but it's been in a very small amount of playing time.
82. Clarke Schmidt, RHP, New York Yankees: Schmidt was finally called up but the results haven't been great in his first two appearances, both in relief. He's sitting 94-97 mph and his slider is averaging 3045 rpm, so the elements that got him ranked here are still present. Being put in a position to succeed and giving him some time to settle in could go a long way here; he's the 6th starter on the roster with Michael King if a spot in the rotation comes open.
85. Jose Garcia, SS, Cincinnati Reds: Garcia came up recently to try to take the shortstop job from Freddy Galvis and he certainly has the tools to do it. In his first four games, he has hit four balls for 98 mph off the bat or higher, with a peak exit velocity of 108 mph, so there are some positive things already happening at the plate to go with the plus speed/glove/arm combo. Strikeouts will be the main worry.
95. Luis Garcia, 2B, Washington Nationals: Garcia came up to platoon at second base with Josh Harrison, having totally skipped Triple-A. Garcia is a bit of a free swinger but he has raw power and contact ability, so slight improvements in pitch selection could unlock more offensive upside; the results through 16 games haven't been very good.
99. Andres Gimenez, SS, New York Mets: Gimenez has mostly played as expected, with a strong idea of the strike zone, solid speed and glove work (mostly at second and third, rather than at his natural spot at shortstop in deference to Amed Rosario), but without much punch at the plate. That still probably adds up to an above-average every-day player and a solid debut given that he also completely skipped Triple-A.
There also has been a stack of players that would've ranked in the 101-200 area who have made their debuts this year, but a handful stand out as having taken a step forward with their 2020 MLB performances, into top 100 contention if not comfortably on the list:
Jake Cronenworth, SS/RHP, San Diego Padres: Cronenworth has had a wild rise this year after his first 112 major league plate appearances. A couple of months ago I had him as an intriguing role player who could fit anywhere on the field, including as a mop-up guy on the mound, but that has changed after he went wild at the plate (.356/.411/.624) for the surging Padres, with Baseball Savant percentiles putting him in the top quarter of baseball at every important skill.
He's clearly a top-100 type now, but it's based on just 31 games, so I don't want to go overboard. He's still in the back half of the top 100, but he might get close to the middle before he loses his prospect eligibility. The Rays obviously lost some value by including Cronenworth in the Tommy Pham-Hunter Renfroe deal (the Rays got back top 100 prospect Xavier Edwards as well), but are also the most loaded team in baseball at the middle infield spots, so he might still have been at the alternate site for Tampa Bay.
Kyle Lewis, CF, Seattle Mariners: Lewis has top-100 tools and pedigree but had some durability and contact issues as he rose through the minors, including in his 2019 cup of coffee in the big leagues. He's now working around manageable swing-and-miss, getting to his power, flashing speed and defensive acumen. I haven't gone through the entire top 100 to redo it, and there's a bit of luck in his hot start, but Lewis is certainly in the conversation.
James Karinchak, RHP, Cleveland Indians: His velocity and curveball depth are both a little worse this year than last, but his whiff rates on both are up, helping him post more positively goofy numbers this year. He's now throwing his curveball 51% of the time, doing everything he does well even more than he has before, with 35 strikeouts over 18 innings this year. I'm not one to go too wild on ranking or paying relievers, but Karinchak has figured out what works for him.
Tony Gonsolin, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers: Gonsolin was one of the late cuts from the list and after four strong starts this year, his MLB career mark is 57 ⅔ innings, a 2.18 ERA and a 3.36 FIP (a metric that strips out the luck that ERA can miss in a small sample). His stuff is above average-to-plus with a 95.0 mph average fastball velocity and a nasty splitter he throws 39% of the time. The concern entering the year is his command could push him to the bullpen, but now he's moving to that Deivi Garcia/Lance McCullers Jr. territory where the role doesn't matter that much.
Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland Indians: McKenzie missed time in 2018 and all of 2019 with injuries, but was a top-100 arm before that. He has been solid in his MLB debut this year, with a heater than averages 93.9 mph (up from the last time we saw him on a mound) and has top-20-in-the-league lift to the pitch to help create whiffs. The off-speed stuff is more solid average than spectacular, but his command projects for above average and the Indians track record developing pitchers gives you optimism that the improvement continues for the 23-year-old, especially if he can stay healthy.