Winners and losers from surprisingly active MLB trade deadline

There have been more manic trade deadlines in Major League Baseball history. There have also been quieter ones. All in all, the run-up to and beyond Monday afternoon's deadline felt fairly normal. That qualifies as at least a mild surprise during a season in which more obstacles were in place to undermine potential deals than ever before. Nevertheless, deals were made. Contenders bolstered their rosters; noncontenders focused on the long term.

Who were the winners and losers from the deadline activity? That's a question best answered after the season, of course, but that's not how this works. So let's dig in and try to make sense of what did -- and did not -- happen. The guiding principle of this analysis is that everything that has happened since the start of the season counts as "deadline" activity. This is about how teams have evolved since Opening Day.

BIGGEST WINNER: San Diego Padres

Look, there is no guarantee that, taken as a whole, these moves will make the Padres much better, if at all. They certainly make them different. All told, general manager A.J. Preller added eight players who figure to be integral parts of the big league roster down the stretch and into October. The late eight: catcher Jason Castro, catcher/corner infielder Austin Nola, outfielder Greg Allen, first base/DH Mitch Moreland, quasi-ace starter Mike Clevinger and relievers Trevor Rosenthal, Taylor Williams and Dan Altavilla.

Whether the Padres improve from here is beside the point. San Diego is mired in a 13-season stretch without a postseason appearance. It hasn't posted a winning record in 10 years. With the 2020 Padres establishing themselves as a virtual lock to at least snap the postseason drought, Preller leaped to maximize his chances.

For a lot of reasons, the Padres were better positioned than most to be this active around the deadline. For years, Preller, Logan White & Co. have presided over one of the game's deepest farm systems. With so many investments made in amateur talent acquisition, the organization was nearing decision time on a few players this winter for inclusion on the 40-man roster. Also, the Padres added additional low-level minor league teams in recent seasons to give everyone some place to play, but now, like everyone, they will likely move forward with just four affiliates. It was time to consolidate, and Preller was able to do that without draining the system. From Kiley McDaniel's preseason rankings, Preller traded only No. 5 Taylor Trammell ("truh-MELL" is the pronunciation, which is something I just can't seem to internalize, probably from watching so much Alan Trammell as a kid) and No. 11 Edward Olivares.

With the Rangers hanging onto Lance Lynn, the Padres landed the best starter to move at the deadline. I like Lynn better for the short term, but Clevinger nevertheless immediately becomes San Diego's No. 1, followed by Dinelson Lamet and Chris Paddack. If that trio are all clicking at the same time in October, the Padres are going to be very tough to beat.

Based on 2020 performance, the bullpen on the Padres' original roster this season would rank 22nd in the majors per my metrics. That's a problem, especially when your ace fireman is out for the year, as is the case with Kirby Yates. In Rosenthal and Williams, Preller added two relievers who have logged ninth-inning time this year, though in the latter's case it was mostly just because someone had to pitch in the ninth for the Mariners. Rosenthal's stuff this year is closer-worthy, and if he can locate semi-consistently, manager Jayce Tingler can match up in the late innings with him and Drew Pomeranz, sliding Pierce Johnson, Matt Strahm, Emilio Pagan, Tim Hill, Craig Stammen and Altavilla into important but lower-leverage roles.

The main thing is that Tingler has even more experienced options in his veteran-heavy pen, but he does lose Cal Quantrill, part of the price for landing Clevinger, and he has thrown the ball well this season. He has more options but in lieu of Yates, it remains to be seen if the relief staff will still emerge as the team strength it figured to be at the season's outset.

The Padres' offense has been one of baseball's best so far, with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado both trending toward MVP consideration. There are some players who seem ripe for regression, such as center fielder Trent Grisham and second baseman/utility infielder Jake Cronenworth. Moreland and Nola both fit that description, as well. If none of these players regresses, then the only apparent hole in the lineup is in left field, which could be filled if Tommy Pham is able to return from his fractured hamate bone by the postseason. Still, it should be noted that the Padres have a number of hitters who have outstripped expectation. That's a big reason why the roster turnover might well improve San Diego's baseline talent level without it necessarily showing up in the standings.

That said, San Diego appears to have upgraded behind the plate with or without regression. The combination of Nola and Castro, with Francisco Mejia waiting in the wings, is better offensively than the Austin Hedges-led contingent, and Castro offers plenty of defense. However, you do have to worry about bringing in new catchers at this point of the season in terms of working with the pitching staff.

For that matter, all of this still has to fit together, which can't be taken for granted when so much of a roster is turned over. Nevertheless, on paper, the Padres have a roster that is poised to match up well with any club in the postseason. They haven't been in this position for a long time, and that Preller did everything he could to maximize his club's chances makes the Padres the deadline's biggest winner.

BIGGEST LOSER: Chicago White Sox

This isn't about getting into the postseason or even winning a close division race. The White Sox will play in October, and while we will discuss seeding scenarios as the season winds down, it really is not going to matter. What matters is how teams match up in a short series -- and the White Sox did not improve the ability of their pitching staff to do that.

In Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel, the White Sox look well-situated for the first two games of a playoff series. It is certainly possible that Dylan Cease or even rookie Dane Dunning could emerge as an alluring No. 3. Cease has the stuff but hasn't hit his stride in terms of consistency. It's an outlook that would have appeared so, so better with Lynn in the mix. No one else landed Lynn, either, so clearly the asking price was prohibitive, and there is no reason for any club to mortgage the future to improve its odds for a 16-team tournament. Still, you grade by the bottom line: Chicago needed a front-line starter, and Chicago didn't get one. The White Sox also did not add to a bullpen staff that has been OK but, with veteran Steve Cishek flailing, one that could have been upgraded.

The White Sox did make a move on the margins that I really liked, adding fleet-footed veteran Jarrod Dyson to their outfield mix. Dyson doesn't hit much, but he is an impact baserunner who will figure into manager Rick Renteria's extra-inning strategy over the rest of the season. Adam Engel is as fast or faster than Dyson but for whatever reason has never been a high-level base stealer, whereas Dyson is one of the game's best. Dyson also gives Renteria the option of deploying a dynamic defensive outfield of him, Engel and Luis Robert, a trio who could blanket the green from foul line to foul line -- and even allow Renteria to bump Eloy Jimenez to designated hitter on occasion in lieu of slumping veteran Edwin Encarnacion.

THE OTHER TEAMS

Note: If a team is not mentioned, then consider it to have held steady. It neither won nor lost, and it won't be getting a participation trophy.

LOSER: Atlanta Braves

It's a mild loss, but ending up with only Tommy Milone as a rotation addition could leave the Braves short with its injury-ravaged starting staff. Still, I'm not too worked up about it. Max Fried has emerged as a legitimate ace, and there will be a lot of pressure on him to show that in October, if only to save a very good bullpen that figures to be leaned upon once the playoffs begin.

Milone is really just a guy, even if he did start on Opening Day for the Orioles. The Braves have a lot of just-a-guys after Fried, at least by 2020 performance. Prospect Ian Anderson recently made his debut, and perhaps he will prove to be the spark the group needs. Still, the Braves have plenty of overall talent to win in October, even if manager Brian Snitker has to pick and choose his matchups carefully when the big tournament begins.

LOSER: Arizona Diamondbacks

Without knowing the identity of the player to be named later that Arizona will get as the third part of the return from Miami for Starling Marte, it's hard to really grade the Diamondbacks' deadline. Still, they join the loser class simply because of the trajectory of their season. They went from a popular sleeper pick to go deep into October before the season to a so-so 13-11 start -- which gets you into the 2020 playoffs -- to a 14-20 mark on deadline day. Thus, Arizona heads into the final month with Madison Bumgarner on the injured list and having traded Marte, Robbie Ray and Archie Bradley for a group of players whom their fans are going to have a hard time being excited about, to put it kindly. It's not that they were unnecessary or bad deals; time will tell on that. It has just been a very disappointing season in Phoenix.

LOSER: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs were limited financially, for reasons I'm not sure I will ever quite understand, but they did make moves at the deadline. (Yes, every team is revenue-starved this season, yet other teams were able to maneuver.) They added veteran outfielder Cameron Maybin, who has now been traded eight times during his career, if you count his Aug. 31 waiver pickup by Houston in 2017 as a trade. The Cubs will be his 10th big league organization. Maybin has always been a good player, but not good enough to convince a club that he is better than what it might get in a trade for him. And he is a well-liked player, which also partly explains his travels. In addition, Chicago picked up lefty relievers Andrew Chafin and Josh Osich.

With the exception of new DH Jose Martinez, who improves an already good offense, I'm just not sure the Cubs brought in anybody who is better than what they already had. You might look at the standings and think that's fine. Consider this: The Cubs' 162-game win pace is 95. Great! Their expected wins, based on run differential, projects to 83. They need to get better.

WINNER: Cincinnati Reds

We can argue whether baseball's best rotation is in Cleveland or in Cincinnati, but at least we can agree that it's in Ohio. With that in place, landing Bradley to hold down the back of the bullpen is a huge get for the Reds. Cincinnati has been lackluster so far, and some of that is because of the relief staff. Bradley can't fix that alone, but his presence will help manager David Bell figure out how to bridge the gap between the starters and Bradley. The Reds have had some relievers throw well this year, including Tejay Antone, Lucas Sims and Amir Garrett. If Raisel Iglesias can return to the form he had when he was last a premier setup guy, this group could quickly become a strength.

The Cincinnati offense has been bad, stunningly so. Still, the Reds aren't going anywhere if they don't get the good kind of regression from core hitters such as Shogo Akiyama, Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto and Mike Moustakas. If that group gets going and the bullpen comes together, this could still be the breakout season Reds fans had hoped for. That made Monday a good day for them, as when the day dawned, there was a nonzero chance that the Reds could have been sellers.

LOSER: Cleveland Indians

Dealing Clevinger was not the end of the world, and the Indians will still have plenty of starting pitching. I'll also be watching to see what they do with Quantrill. Still, does this club have some kind of pathological aversion to everyday outfielders?

WINNER: Colorado Rockies

Not a big winner, but believe or not the Rockies are a pitching-and-defense outfit. Kevin Pillar adds to that by giving them a much-needed glove in center field. Also, Mychal Givens has thrown well this season, adding to a Rockies bullpen that has been a pleasant surprise. Still, it's hard to look at Colorado's catching depth chart and not start questioning the meaning of existence.

WINNER: Miami Marlins

I love it. Love. It. The Marlins would have no business buying in a normal season, not at this juncture of the rebuilding process; but in 2020, they are in contention. So why not add? Marte, who has a reasonable club option for next season, immediately becomes Miami's best position player. The Marlins have a good starting rotation now that Sixto Sanchez is dealing in the majors. A break-even season or even a little worse gets you into October. Seriously, why not? As for trading Jonathan Villar, in return they get the son of Jeff "Mr. Marlin" Conine into the organization, and Jon Berti is having a better year than Villar anyway.

WINNER: Oakland Athletics

Oakland addressed both of its needs. The A's needed a starting second baseman and added one in Tommy La Stella, though they might need to replace him in late innings on defense. And they added a quality starting pitcher in Mike Minor. Based on his 2020 numbers, Minor isn't much of an upgrade; based on his forecast numbers, he is a considerable upgrade. If Minor, Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea can fully pitch up to their forecasts, while Jesus Luzardo and Chris Bassitt can keep doing what they've been doing, the A's will have a very good rotation working in front of baseball's best bullpen. Then, one would figure, you would have to ask where all of that leaves Mike Fiers.

WINNER: Philadelphia Phillies

By adding Brandon Workman, David Phelps and Heath Hembree, Philly upgraded its biggest weakness -- the bullpen. Phelps is intriguing. He has been one of the National League's best relievers this season, far better than projected, though at 33 he is pretty far along into his big league career. The Brewers aren't out of the race completely and did not conduct any kind of a fire sale; Phelps was really the only guy they shipped out, doing so for three players to be named later, which seems like a sell-high situation. So will the Phillies get the 2020-to-date version of Phelps or the version that the projections suggested Milwaukee would get? The answer to that will have a major impact on the Phillies' fortunes from here on out.

LOSER: Pittsburgh Pirates

You really couldn't move any of those guys?

WINNER: San Francisco Giants

Farhan Zaidi can't get this tanking thing right. Once again, the Giants hit the trade deadline on the heels of a strong stretch of play. They just aren't that bad. And a club matching that description is, in 2020, a -- gulp -- playoff contender. The Giants are winners by standing pat.

WINNER: Buffalo / Toronto Blue Jays