San Diego hasn't seen a flurry like this one since Dec. 13, 1967. That was the last time a measurable amount of snow hit the city. This time, thanks to the wheeling and dealing of Padres general manager A.J. Preller, it's a flurry of baseball players.
In a series of six transactions, including a seven-player trade with the Mariners and a nine-player trade with the Indians, Preller brought in nine new players to the Padres (plus a player to be named later) while trading away 14 (and two players to be named later). The biggest deal came a few hours before Monday's 4 p.m. ET trade deadline when Preller acquired Mike Clevinger to give the Padres a top-of-the-rotation starter to add an already solid group. Preller also picked up two catchers, a DH and two guys named Austin.
The final tally:
In: Clevinger, Greg Allen, Taylor Williams, Austin Nola, Austin Adams, Dan Altavilla, Mitch Moreland, Jason Castro, Trevor Rosenthal, PTBNL
Out: Cal Quantrill, Austin Hedges, Josh Naylor, Ty France, Luis Torrens, Andres Munoz, Taylor Trammell, Gabriel Arias, Edward Olivares, Owen Miller, Joey Cantillo, Gerardo Reyes, Hudson Potts, Jeisson Rosario, two PTBNLs
In a sense, Preller has spent the past five years building for a trade deadline like this. The Padres had what was regarded as either the best or second-best farm system in the majors, featuring both elite-level talent and enough depth to fill prospect lists for three teams. He acquired Clevinger without giving up his very best young players, however, trading volume while keeping MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patino, C.J. Abrams and Luis Campusano, Kiley McDaniel's top four Padres prospects heading into the season.
He did give up Trammell, the team's No. 5 prospect, in the Seattle trade, a high-risk, high-reward outfielder whom the Padres had acquired from the Reds last trade deadline in the Franmil Reyes-Trevor Bauer three-team deal. Arias (No. 8), Olivares (No. 11), Miller (No. 13) and Cantillo (No. 14) were other players rated at a 45 future value by McDaniel, making them likely big leaguers. (Olivares made a cameo for the Padres this season before going to Kansas City for Rosenthal.)
Still, this wasn't simply Preller going all-in for 2020. Clevinger still is under team control for two more years. Nola and Adams are under team control for five seasons. Yes, Trammell has upside, Arias is a young shortstop with interesting tools and Cantillo dominated Class A in 2019, more with pitchability than a blazing fastball. Quantrill and France are certainly useful major leaguers and Munoz had a 100 mph fastball before undergoing Tommy John surgery back in March. Preller gave up a lot. The Padres, however, now have a team that can hang with the Dodgers in October. The battle for Southern California is real and it will be spectacular.
With sophomore sensation Fernando Tatis Jr. leading the way, with Manny Machado suddenly tearing it up (they rank fifth and 10th in the majors in OPS), with rookie Jake Cronenworth also posting an OPS above 1.000, and with those glorious new uniforms, the Padres were already the most exciting story of the 2020 season. They haven't made the postseason since 2006, and while that drought -- third longest in the majors behind the Mariners and Marlins -- will end, Preller isn't content with just getting to October. He transformed the Padres into legit World Series contenders.
Here's what their lineup looks like now:
CF Trent Grisham (131 OPS+)
SS Fernando Tatis Jr. (186)
3B Manny Machado (173)
1B Eric Hosmer (147)
DH Mitch Moreland (206)
RF Wil Myers (160)
2B Jake Cronenworth (183)
LF Tommy Pham (71)
C Austin Nola (149)
Bench: Jason Castro, Jurickson Profar, Greg Allen, Greg Garcia
That's an incredible lineup, even given likely regression from some of those hot starts. Some of those starts aren't necessarily flukes, however. Cronenworth is hitting .361 with 15 extra-base hits in 97 at-bats, but his expected batting average based on quality of contact is in the 100th percentile of all players. Hosmer has cut down on his high ground-ball rate and his expected average and expected slugging percentage are both way up from 2019. Myers is producing at a higher level than ever before, but, like Hosmer, ranks in the 90th-plus percentile in both expected average and expected slugging. Grisham has done a good job getting on base (.346) and Pham, currently on the IL, has a career .370 OBP. This is now a lineup with no holes and the fearsome 1-2 punch of Tatis and Machado.
The rotation had the eighth-best ERA in the majors before adding Clevinger and now looks like this:
RHP Mike Clevinger (3.18 ERA, 5.60 FIP, 22.6% SO rate)
RHP Dinelson Lamet (2.35 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 3.29% SO rate)
RHP Zach Davies (2.61 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 23.3% SO rate)
RHP Chris Paddack (4.43 ERA, 4.84 FIP, 23.9% SO rate)
RHP Garrett Richards (5.17 ERA, 4.95 FIP, 18.4% SO rate)
Clevinger hasn't been quite as dominant as he was in 2019 -- when he had a 2.49 FIP and 33.9% strikeout rate -- and he missed time after violating COVID protocols, but he was one of the top starters in the majors last season. Lamet has been a revelation with one of the best fastball-slider combos in the game. He has the second-lowest batting average allowed and the ninth-best strikeout rate (the same as Gerrit Cole). Paddack has been a little homer-prone, but has a 42:8 K:BB ratio and looks like a No. 2-caliber starter, while Davies has allowed a .189 average and .234 OBP. Given Lamet's big stride forward and the possibility that Clevinger and Paddack perform better than they have so far, this rotation certainly has the ability to match up favorably with the best four guys the Dodgers can run out there.
When matching up with L.A., the only negative for San Diego is not having a lefty starter. The Dodgers own an .858 OPS against righties, but just .674 against lefties, as Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and Corey Seager all have struggled against southpaws.
The biggest problem for the Padres has been a bullpen that ranks 23rd in the majors with a 5.20 ERA. This was supposed to be a strength, but All-Star closer Kirby Yates was ineffective and likely is out for the year, while Emilio Pagan and Craig Stammen both have struggled.
LHP Drew Pomeranz (just off IL)
RHP Trevor Rosenthal
RHP Emilio Pagan
RHP Luis Patino
RHP Taylor Williams
LHP Matt Strahm
LHP Tim Hill
RHP Austin Adams
RHP Craig Stammen
RHP Pierce Johnson
Pomeranz hasn't allowed a run in 10 innings and has been a dominant reliever since shifting to the pen last season for the Brewers. Rosenthal found his control and was closing for the Royals. Pagan has yet to pitch as well as he did for Tampa in 2019, but it's been only 15 innings. The keys might be Patino and Adams. Patino will eventually be a starter, but the 20-year-old could be a huge bullpen weapon down the stretch with a 97 mph fastball and wipeout slider -- if he throws enough strikes, which he has struggled to do in his first 13 big league innings. Adams came over from the Mariners. He hasn't pitched yet after tearing his ACL late last season, but he's just about ready. He fanned 51 in 31 innings for the Mariners in 2019, throwing his slider an incredible 64% of the time. It worked: Batters hit just .133 against it. The Padres could also get lefty Jose Castillo back in September; he's been out all season with a lat strain.
The Dodgers are still the team to beat. There's no guarantee the California contenders even meet in October, but I'm already drooling about a Dodgers-Padres National League Championship Series.