Ten teams, three spots.
Major League Baseball's 2021 regular season is down to its final three weeks, and intrigue abounds even though most of the divisions have essentially been settled.
The Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers each hold at least a 98.5% chance of winning their respective divisions, according to FanGraphs. The Atlanta Braves, who have gone from 4.5 games back to 4.5 up since the start of August, sit at 87.9% in the National League East. The San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers are still relatively close in the NL West, but both will be in the playoffs, with one of their seasons coming down to a single-elimination game.
Then we have the rest: Three wide-open wild-card spots (one in the National League, two in the American League) and 10 teams (five in each league) fighting over these next 21 days to claim them, all within three games of one another.
Below is a look at each of those teams heading into the final stretch -- with stats to know, players to watch and reasons for optimism and pessimism.
Boston Red Sox
Where they stand: 81-64, tied with Toronto for the first AL wild-card spot
Postseason odds: 76.3%
Stat to know: Unfortunately, the most important stat surrounding the Red Sox has nothing to do with baseball. Twelve of their players have been placed on the COVID-19 injured list over the past 2½ weeks, a list that includes six position players (Xander Bogaerts, Enrique Hernandez, Christian Arroyo, Jarren Duran, Danny Santana, Yairo Munoz), four relievers (Matt Barnes, Martin Perez, Hirokazu Sawamura, Josh Taylor) and two starters (Nick Pivetta, Chris Sale).
Player to watch: Garrett Whitlock had acted as a stabilizing presence for a Red Sox bullpen in flux this season, with a 1.81 ERA, 76 strikeouts and 16 walks in 69⅔ innings heading into Sunday's game. Then he gave up a walk-off homer to Leury Garcia with two outs in the ninth, while appearing in back-to-back games for the first time this season. Whitlock, 25, is one of Boston's most important back-end relievers at the moment and will continue to be. But he also is a rookie who didn't pitch in an affiliated league last season and isn't far removed from Tommy John surgery. The Red Sox have been cautious with his usage this season, but desperation sets in this time of year. How they deploy him down the stretch will be fascinating.
Reason for optimism: The Red Sox managed to keep their heads above water while battling a prolonged COVID-19 outbreak that severely compromised their depth and triggered a dizzying set of transactions, going 8-8 despite a difficult slate of games. Now they're slowly starting to become whole again, and the Red Sox seem to have a more favorable remaining schedule than the other AL East teams battling for a wild-card spot, most notably six games remaining against the Baltimore Orioles.
Reason for pessimism: The Red Sox's depth has been dealt a vicious blow at the worst possible time. Bogaerts, Hernandez, Taylor and Pivetta have returned from the COVID-19 IL, while Barnes and Perez are quickly working their way back. But several key members of the position-player group and the pitching staff remain away from the team, most notably Sale, who looked dominant in his return from Tommy John surgery and probably won't return any sooner than the final homestand of the season.
Cincinnati Reds
Where they stand: 75-69, tied for the second NL wild-card spot
Postseason odds: 39.9%
Stat to know: You probably wouldn't have guessed this if you're not a Reds fan, but Luis Castillo leads the majors with 15 losses this season. And while that is mostly another example of why win-loss records shouldn't carry much weight in this era, Castillo's more relevant numbers -- 4.24 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 2.55 strikeout-to-walk ratio -- also have been subpar. Still, he possesses the best stuff on the staff and will be counted on in their biggest games down the stretch.
Player to watch: The Reds entered Sunday with a .288 weighted on-base average and 0.4 FanGraphs wins above replacement from the position of shortstop. Playing there at the moment, while Kyle Farmer is on the paternity list, is Jose Barrero, who batted .303/.380/.539 in Double-A and Triple-A this year. So many good teams have been bolstered by late-season additions from their minor league system, and the Reds could be the latest if Barrero, 23, gets hot enough to warrant permanent placement in the lineup over these next few weeks. Barrero had a big game on Friday but was part of a nasty collision on Saturday.
Reason for optimism: The Reds' schedule looks as if it resides on the opposite end of the spectrum from that of the Padres. Half of the Reds' 18 remaining games will come against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates, four will come against the languishing Washington Nationals and two will come against a White Sox team that will merely be gearing up for the division series by then.
Reason for pessimism: The Reds have lost four of their past five series against losing teams and are really struggling offensively, slashing .219/.283/.389 while averaging only 3.5 runs per game over the past three weeks. Joey Votto, in particular, has slowed down a bit, with an OPS of only .649 over his past 20 games.
New York Mets
Where they stand: 72-72, three games back for the second NL wild-card spot
Postseason odds: 7%
Stat to know: Francisco Lindor ranked 139th among the 163 players with at least 400 plate appearances in OPS when Sunday began. Then he homered three times in a thrilling victory over the New York Yankees and jumped to 124th, his OPS improving by 33 points after just five plate appearances. The superstar shortstop, signed to a 10-year, $341 million contract in April, had been the face of a Mets offense that had underperformed as a whole, getting subpar production from most of its important contributors. Sunday's performance, highlighted by a curtain call, proves there's still time for Lindor to make a different impression.
Player to watch: Javier Baez, at the center of controversy upon revealing the meaning behind the team's "thumbs-down" celebration, is in the midst of an epic turnaround in Queens. Baez batted only .213/.262/.410 in August, but has hit .422/.480/.778 through his first 12 games of September. Baez is susceptible to extreme highs and lows because of his lack of plate discipline, but he can ignite an entire offense when he gets hot.
Reason for optimism: The one element that stands out above the rest in this wild Mets season is its sheer unpredictability. So, maybe it makes sense that now, with the odds stacked against it, this enigmatic group goes on a dramatic run and vaults itself into the postseason, either by claiming a wild-card spot or recapturing the lead in an underwhelming NL East. The Mets are a miserable 4-14 in one-run games since the start of August. Doing more little things right would have greatly improved that record.
Reason for pessimism: This one is not difficult. The Mets have been a below-.500 team since the start of June, have one of the most difficult remaining schedules among contenders, need to jump four teams for a wild-card spot and will probably have to do so without Jacob deGrom, who has been out since early July and might or might not have a compromised ulnar collateral ligament. To top it all off: The Mets' closer, Edwin Diaz, is struggling too.
New York Yankees
Where they stand: 79-64, one game back for the second AL wild-card spot
Postseason odds: 49.5%
Stat to know: Heading into their Sunday Night Baseball loss to the Mets, the Yankees had followed an inspiring, 13-game winning streak with 11 losses in a stretch of 14 games, going from an .840 OPS in the former stretch to a .649 OPS in the latter stretch. Just when it seemed as if the Yankees would finally play up to their potential and surge the rest of the way, they came crashing back down to earth.
Player to watch: Joey Gallo seemed to be exactly what the Yankees needed, but he has batted only .134/.299/.310 since coming over from the Texas Rangers, with seven home runs and 67 strikeouts in 40 games, and struggling mightily against fastballs. Gallo's defense is still a major benefit, but the Yankees desperately need his left-handed bat to get going.
Reason for optimism: Assuming Gerrit Cole, dealing with a hamstring issue, takes the ball on Tuesday, he would be scheduled for four more starts this season and could theoretically start the regular-season finale on short rest. Cole leads the AL in wins and has acted as an elixir for all that ails these bewildering Yankees. His 2.78 ERA in 158⅔ innings puts him among the favorites for what would be his first Cy Young Award. The rest of the Yankees' starters entered Sunday with a collective 4.11 ERA.
Reason for pessimism: The Yankees are capable of both the highest of highs and the lowest of lows, the expected byproduct of a lineup that pulverizes the baseball but also strikes out too often, has a hard time manufacturing runs and can't necessarily cling to aggressive baserunning or superior defense. The Yankees are clearly riding a low right now, while residing in the sport's best division, and they might not get out of it in time to claim a spot in the postseason.
Oakland Athletics
Where they stand: 77-66, three games back for the second AL wild-card spot
Postseason odds: 5.6%
Stat to know: Starling Marte is batting 345/.377/.497 since joining the A's at midseason, with more hits and more stolen bases -- the latter by a lot -- than anyone in the sport since the start of August. It's hard to understate just how important he has been for a team that lost Ramon Laureano because of a performance-enhancing drugs suspension.
Player to watch: Matt Chapman has struggled through a .219/.318/.415 slash line in his return from hip surgery and is batting only .156 this month. It's hard to envision the A's separating themselves from such a packed group of AL wild-card hopefuls if Chapman's bat doesn't come alive.
Reason for optimism: Chris Bassitt, out since taking a line drive to the face on Aug. 17, has been throwing off a mound and could be on the verge of returning to the A's pitching staff. Bassitt, 32, was experiencing another standout season in Oakland, with a 3.22 ERA and a 4.40 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 25 starts. Getting him back in the rotation would be an obvious boost, but deploying him out of the bullpen also would be a major benefit to a unit that has struggled mightily in recent weeks.
Reason for pessimism: So, about that bullpen ... only the Orioles' relievers have been worse over these past three weeks. Since Aug. 22, the A's bullpen -- a staple of their success in recent years -- has combined for a 6.14 ERA and has allowed an opponents' slugging percentage of .453. Outside of Jake Diekman, the A's bullpen doesn't have many guys who consistently miss bats -- and that's a problem in the tight games the A's will undoubtedly play the rest of this season.
Philadelphia Phillies
Where they stand: 72-71, 2.5 games back for the second NL wild-card spot
Postseason odds: 14.6%
Stat to know: The Phillies' bullpen has the second-worst ERA in the majors since the start of the 2020 season, with only the Colorado Rockies' pen -- a group that pitches half its games in mile-high altitude -- recording a worse mark during that stretch. Even an average group of relievers could've put the Phillies in the playoffs each of these past two years.
Player to watch: There's no other choice here but Bryce Harper, who is putting together his best season outside of his incredible 2015 campaign. Harper leads qualified major league hitters in OPS since the start of July, barely edging Juan Soto, and leads NL position players in FanGraphs WAR. His bat can carry this talented yet flawed Phillies team into its first postseason appearance in 10 years.
Reason for optimism: The Phillies have the potential NL MVP in Harper and the potential NL Cy Young Award winner in Zack Wheeler. Two elite players are not enough to carry a team for a season (see: Los Angeles Angels). But when that season is distilled into three weeks, they can make a major difference. The Phillies' schedule looks favorable the rest of the way, with four of their six remaining series against teams that are well out of contention.
Reason for pessimism: Remember that stat about the bullpen earlier? Well, the Phillies have scheduled four more bullpen games the rest of this season. They'll all come against beatable opponents -- the Orioles, Pirates, Cubs and Marlins -- but that means more work for the Phillies' high-end relievers, which could make them less effective when needed in games pitched by a traditional starter. Remember that other stat about the team's favorable schedule? Well, Philadelphia just lost three of four at home to a Rockies team that entered with an 18-50 record on the road this season.
San Diego Padres
Where they stand: 74-68, tied for the second NL wild-card spot
Postseason odds: 36%
Stat to know: A lot was made of the Padres' rotation heading into the season, but that group has averaged 14 outs per start this year, tied for the fewest in the majors. It has been a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness, and it continues to tax the team's bullpen.
Player to watch: Yu Darvish, who has had an up-and-down season and needs to reestablish himself as the ace of this staff now that Blake Snell is dealing with tightness near his left groin. Darvish pitched six innings of one-run ball against the Angels on Wednesday. Prior to that, however, he had allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in a stretch of 11⅓ innings.
Reason for optimism: Yes, the Padres have a brutal schedule the rest of the way (10 against the Giants, four against the Braves and three each against the Dodgers and Cardinals). But this group seems to play better -- sharper, crisper -- against elevated competition and is just as talented, deep and versatile as any of the teams it will face, especially if Fernando Tatis Jr.'s shoulder cooperates.
Reason for pessimism: The biggest source of it might have come on Sunday afternoon, when Snell felt something in his adductor upon throwing his 11th pitch to the rival Dodgers and promptly exited the game. Snell has been rolling of late, allowing only three runs in 21⅔ innings over his past three starts, and now there's no telling when he'll be back. His injury came two days after Jake Cronenworth, one of the most important players in the Padres' lineup, fractured a finger.
Seattle Mariners
Where they stand: 77-66, three games back for the second AL wild-card spot
Postseason odds: 3.2%
Stat to know: Kyle Seager seemed like a high-priced afterthought when the season began, but he is one of only nine players in the majors with at least 30 home runs and 90 RBIs this season and could soon become the first Mariner to go 30/100 since Nelson Cruz in 2017. With Seager and Mitch Haniger, the Mariners are currently one of only six teams with two 30-homer players.
Player to watch: Jarred Kelenic's rookie season has been brutal, with a .166/.246/.310 slash line and 87 strikeouts in 74 games. But he's only 22, with a world of talent and a proven track record in the minor leagues; at some point, it should click. And if that somehow happens soon, the Mariners could shock the world.
Reason for optimism: Casey Sadler and Drew Steckenrider each entered Sunday with 17⅓ consecutive scoreless innings, helping to give the Mariners the lowest bullpen ERA in the AL since the start of August -- even though they traded their best reliever, Kendall Graveman, to the division-rival Astros. The Mariners are 30-18 in one-run games, and they should have plenty more of them left.
Reason for pessimism: The Mariners are an up-and-coming team that isn't anywhere near as good as their record suggests at the moment, evidenced most notably by a minus-56 run differential. It's hard to make a case for them over any of the other AL contenders when simply considering their personnel. The 2022 and 2023 Mariners could be a force, but right now, they're too young and not deep enough.
St. Louis Cardinals
Where they stand: 73-69, one game back for the second NL wild-card spot
Postseason odds: 12.6%
Stat to know: Adam Wainwright, 40, and Yadier Molina, 39, have combined for 4.8 Baseball-Reference WAR in 2021. They have been teammates dating all the way back to the World Series championship from 2006. And they could remain teammates again in 2022. Before then, however, they could miraculously push the Cardinals into the playoffs.
Player to watch: Nolan Arenado, acquired to push the Cardinals back into contention, hit the go-ahead, two-run homer on Saturday and hit another two-run homer on Sunday, accounting for his team's only runs in the finale of what became a series win over the division-rival Reds. Arenado has been frustrated by his season -- though 31 home runs and 96 RBIs is nothing to scoff at -- but he could find another gear just in time.
Reason for optimism: Jack Flaherty, who has made only three starts since the end of May, is scheduled to throw off a mound this week, and the Cardinals are optimistic he'll return from his shoulder injury before the end of the regular season. Flaherty doesn't have enough time to get stretched back out as a traditional starter, but he can greatly help this staff in any capacity.
Reason for pessimism: The Cardinals' rotation is a major cause for concern once you get past Wainwright. The rest of the group consists of Jon Lester (4.75 ERA this season), Jake Woodford (4.28 ERA), Miles Mikolas (5.47 ERA) and J.A. Happ (6.00 ERA), though Happ provided a strong outing on Sunday. Those starters must continue to step up this week, with crucial series against the Mets and Padres looming.
Toronto Blue Jays
Where they stand: 80-63, tied for the first AL wild-card spot
Postseason odds: 66.1%
Stat to know: The Blue Jays, coming off a 22-7 trouncing of the lowly Orioles, have scored 44 runs over their past three games, the most of any three-game stretch in franchise history. Twenty-seven of those runs came in a stretch of four innings. Their 106 runs in September are at least 40% more than any other team.
Player to watch: Steven Matz had a 1.61 ERA in a five-start stretch before a rough outing against the Orioles on Sunday. Most of those struggles may have stemmed from the comfort that comes with such a large early lead. Whatever the reason, an effective Matz to pair alongside Robbie Ray, Hyun Jin Ryu and Jose Berrios drastically changes the outlook of Toronto's rotation.
Reason for optimism: The Blue Jays are playing their best baseball right now, with a major league-best 11-1 record and a plus-51 run differential in the month of September. Marcus Semien and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have combined for 12 home runs in 12 games this month. And none of this is some fluke, either. The Blue Jays' offense has proved to be a force all season.
Reason for pessimism: The reason to feel pessimistic about the Blue Jays hasn't really changed. They still reside in a division with the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees, and there are still some questions about Toronto's pitching staff, even though Ray has been a revelation and others have stepped up throughout the summer. The Jays' bullpen sits in the middle of the pack in ERA since the All-Star break.