The confusion over what the New York Yankees have become could be seen in the faces of their players, who ask the same questions that everybody else does.
Why isn't the team better?
With a lineup filled with accomplished stars, why do big hits seem so elusive?
How could a team that led the majors in runs scored for the 2017-20 seasons rank in the bottom third of run production this year? How could the pitching staff be so thin?
Going into the weekend series against the New York Mets, the Yankees were a half-game ahead of the Blue Jays for a playoff spot after being swept by Toronto -- in which the Yanks never held a lead in a four-game series for the first since 1924 -- and yet, because of their struggles, it felt like they were 10 games behind. They start Sunday, ahead of their rubber game with the Mets, now tied with Toronto for the second American League wild-card spot.
No matter what happens, there will be a winter of hard choices within the organization.
What follows are the most important, and we'll take them in inverse order.
1. What are the plans with the team's best position player, Aaron Judge?
It's hard to imagine how bad the Yankees' offense would be this year without Judge, who leads the roster in fWAR (4.6) and just about every other major offensive category, from runs to home runs to on-base percentage. He is their best hitter, he is their best defender, he might be their best baserunner, and he is a clubhouse leader.
He will also be a free agent after the 2022 season, and so the Yankees must decide whether to invest huge dollars in the slugger, who turns 30 next April. Judge missed about a third of the team's games over the three seasons before 2021, but other than being absent because of a positive COVID test in July, he has stayed on the field this year.
Many X-factors will be at play in the relationship between Judge and the Yankees. His marketability and star power. The importance to the players' association that Judge reach his financial ceiling in his negotiations. The industry financial conditions under which the Yankees could grow their payroll into the future. The fact that the Yankees already have two big-money investments on their books, in Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton, who will account for more than $65 million in budget space for years to come.
The Yankees probably have to decide this winter whether they are willing to let Judge depart into the open market.
2. What are the assessments of the players who underperformed this year?
Are DJ LeMahieu's 2021 struggles an outlier -- or is his diminished power something the team should expect in the years ahead? Is it time to move on, once and for all, beyond the likes of Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier? Can Joey Gallo -- who has been awful at the plate, striking about in about 40% of his plate appearances -- make necessary adjustments, and be more comfortable in New York?
3. Who can be counted on in the rotation?
The Yankees gambled on pitchers with extensive injury history in filling out the back end of their 2021 rotation, hoping that they would get more high-end performances than breakdowns -- and they've gotten both. Corey Kluber has been an $11 million bust, pitching just 7⅔ innings in the past four months because of injury. Jameson Taillon evolved during this season and for two months, he was the Yankees' best pitcher. But he was awful early and he was sidelined in recent days by a tendon injury.
The Yankees will need more rotation bedrock behind Cole and Jordan Montgomery in 2022.
4. Who will be the Yankees' next shortstop?
It's hard to imagine a scenario in which Gleyber Torres will be penciled into the spot for 2022, given his perplexing decline in offense. Torres has shown to be subpar and erratic with the glove, prone to mistakes, and the Yankees could probably live with all of that if Torres was hitting. Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Bernie Williams were never regarded among the consistently elite defenders, but they were the backbone of baseball's last dynasty because they were among the best offensive players at their respective positions.
Torres' offense -- his power, especially -- has evaporated. In 144 games in 2019, Torres slammed 38 homers and posted a .535 slugging percentage. In 147 games over the 2020-21 seasons, he has nine homers in 586 plate appearances, with a .349 slugging percentage. The Yankees will go into the winter considering alternatives at the position, and there will be plenty available in free agency, including Trevor Story, Corey Seager and Carlos Correa. The Yankees have the option of moving Torres to second base or third this winter -- or dealing him.
5. Does owner Hal Steinbrenner believe in the vision of general manager Brian Cashman?
Steinbrenner is not reactionary in the same way as his father, who might well have reacted to the frustrating 2021 season with a rampage of change, either with Cashman or those around him. In midseason, Hal Steinbrenner said, in so many words, that the Yankees' core problem was underperformance by the players.
If the Yankees miss the playoffs -- and that would be a shocking result, in the face of preseason expectations and the July resource investments in Anthony Rizzo and Gallo -- Steinbrenner must decide whether he'll continue to endorse the plot laid out by Cashman. If he does, then Aaron Boone presumably will return as manager and everyone in the organization may go into 2022 on double-secret probation.