Even in a typical season, winning a major award is the result of some combination of skill and luck. The skill part is obviously crucial and more often than not, that's what ultimately holds sway when the ballots are cast.
But there is always an element of luck. Did a career season coincide with that of a competitor who is also producing at peak level but has a higher baseline of talent? How much impact with team-related factors have on the voting? And what about injuries?
Yeah, what about injuries? Perhaps it's appropriate for this topsy-turvy time in baseball, but this year's awards races have been heavily influenced by the injury wave that has washed over the majors this year.
Early season narratives have been forgotten because the protagonists in them have been on the shelf for weeks or months. Remember when the AL MVP race was shaping up as an epic battle between Angels great Mike Trout and Twins center fielder Byron Buxton, who finally seemed to have put all the elements of his immense talent together? Injuries wiped that out. They've also robbed us of Jacob deGrom's race against history and bids from Ronald Acuna Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. to post 40-40 seasons, or better.
It's tough for the sport but with seven weeks to go in the regular-season campaign, it's time to focus on the races we do have, not the ones we don't. And while injuries have stolen some of the glitz from the races, the flip side is that some of them are wide open as the season hits the stretch run.
And so today, ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield check in with their regular glance of the races in this month's Awards Watch.
As always, a statistical glimpse of the races is provided using Doolittle's AXE ratings. This month, the ratings are prorated for 162 games using season-to-date results, plus a rest-of-season forecast based on anticipated playing time and 2021 performance. Playing time estimates are based on depth chart data from Fangraphs.com.
AL MVP
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Shohei Ohtani, Angels (156)
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (142)
3. Marcus Semien, Blue Jays (135)
4. Matt Olson, Athletics (133)
5. Cedric Mullins, Orioles (132)
6. (tie) Jose Ramirez, Indians (130)
Carlos Correa, Astros (130)
Rafael Devers, Red Sox (130)
Possible pitchers: none
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook
Ohtani -800
Vlad Jr. +600
Devers +6000
Semien +6000
Olson +6000
What AXE sees: Ohtani has been brilliant at the plate, on the basepaths and on the mound. He's been durable and consistent. His AXE figure (156) is headed for historic levels. The last time we checked in, there appeared to be a chance for a terrific battle between Ohtani and Guerrero Jr. But Ohtani just keeps pulling away. At least we got to see them go head to head this week.
What Dave says: The Angels are floundering to another non-playoff season, while Guerrero is leading a second-half charge for the Blue Jays, but I don't think that helps Guerrero. In fact, Ohtani is looking like a unanimous selection at this point, which unfortunately undersells how great Guerrero has been at the plate. He's simply lost in the dust of Ohtani's historic two-way performance. Guerrero also isn't even that far ahead of teammate Semien. They're essentially even in bWAR with Guerrero holding the slight edge in fWAR. That could mean two top-three MVP finishes in three seasons for Semien, who will take his big season into free agency.
Last word from Brad: There are not many seasons in which a breakout young face-of-baseball star like Vladdy could possibly win a Triple Crown, lead his team's late charge into the postseason and *not* win the MVP award. This is one of them. Ohtani's season is one for the ages, something totally apart from the disappointing campaign put up by the team around him.
NL MVP
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. (tie) Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (136)
Max Muncy, Dodgers (136)
3. Brandon Crawford, Giants (131)
4. Bryan Reynolds, Pirates (130)
5. (tie) Willy Adames, Brewers (129)
Trea Turner, Dodgers (129)
Chris Taylor, Dodgers (129)
Bryce Harper, Phillies (129)
Possible pitchers: Zack Wheeler, Phillies (143); 5. Jacob deGrom, Mets (136); 9. Brandon Woodruff, Brewers (133)
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook
Tatis Jr -110
Harper +400
Muncy +500
Turner +800
Freeman +1000
DeGrom +3000
What AXE sees: There's not a whole lot that separates the leading candidates. Tatis' offensive output has kept him near the top despite injuries and even worse defensive metrics than Muncy. Tatis has been accruing value at a faster pace than Muncy, so if they receive a similar amount of playing time the rest of the way, you figure Tatis has the edge -- even if a possible shift to the outfield robs him of a bit of positional value.
What Dave says: Tatis has now missed 28 games heading into Wednesday's action, which has turned this into one of the most wide-open MVP races in a long time. I looked back at the MVP voting from the past 10 seasons -- 20 MVPs -- and the average number of players receiving at least one first-place vote was just 2.9 per league. Only twice did more than four players receive a first-place: the 2017 NL with six players (Giancarlo Stanton edged out Joey Votto by two points) and the 2011 AL also with six (Justin Verlander beat out Jacoby Ellsbury). This could be one of those seasons where six or seven players get first-place votes.
With Wheeler leading all NL players in WAR, this might also play out like 2011: Verlander received 13 first-place votes, while the position players split up the others, allowing Verlander a comfortable victory. The difference was Verlander went 24-4. Wheeler may win 16 or so games. If Tatis makes it back soon and doesn't miss a beat, he could still win -- reminiscent of Josh Hamilton in 2010, when he played 133 games and won. Otherwise, a hot stretch run could allow somebody to break out into the lead.
Last word from Brad: With Tatis missing so much time, and now apparently coming back to play outfield, which limits his positional value the rest of the way, the NL MVP race has been thrown wide open.
Adames is a fascinating name. If you look at the numbers he put up in the AL for Tampa Bay before moving to the Brewers, and what he's done since, you would never guess it was the same player. But not only has he put up 3.2 bWAR for Milwaukee, he's climbed to fourth in wins probability added because of the number of clutch hits he's compiled and because the Brewers play so many close games. Could Adames possibly sneak away with a major award after an in-season trade, a la Rick Sutcliffe in 1984?
But if trajectory plays into it, look out for Harper, particularly if he goes on an RBI spree to pad his counting numbers a bit. The Phillies have emerged as one of the best stories of the second half and Harper has been right in the middle of it.
As for Wheeler and his league-leading WAR totals at both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs, that can't be overlooked. I don't see him as clearly separating himself as much as the AXE figures suggest, but we'll see. In a vote that could be split a lot of ways, you never know.
AL Cy Young
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. (tie) Lance Lynn, White Sox (131)
Gerrit Cole, Yankees (131)
3. Carlos Rodon, White Sox (129)
4. (tie) Robbie Ray, Blue Jays (122)
Chris Bassitt, Athletics (122)
6. John Means, Orioles (121)
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook
Lynn -150
Cole +300
Rodon +350
What AXE sees: Lynn, Cole and Rodon are the top three from a consensus standpoint among the two leading WAR frameworks. Baseball Reference would throw Ray and Means into the mix, while Fangraphs would favor Bassitt and his lefty rotation mate, Sean Manaea. AXE likes consensus, so Lynn, Cole and Rodon have achieved a bit of separation, with Lynn and Cole tying for the lead because of win probability metrics.
What Dave says: Rodon has been terrific with a low ERA and the April no-hitter. He leads the AL in FIP, but he might not even get to 162 innings to qualify for the ERA leaderboard. The fewest innings for a non-reliever Cy Young winner in a non-shortened season (strike or COVID) is Blake Snell's 180⅔ in 2018 and Clayton Kershaw's 198⅓ in 2014. Of course, these are different times and few pitchers in either league are going to get to 200 innings. That might make Lynn the favorite since his ERA was 2.04 to 3.11 for Cole through Tuesday. But don't sleep on Bassitt, who leads the AL in innings, and if he can get his ERA under 3.00 could sneak in if Lynn falters.
Last word from Brad: Lynn's consistent season has been like a straight line, while Cole's has looked more like Pinocchio's polygraph test. It's left them at roughly the same place. If Lynn can keep doing what he's doing and end up with a 15-4 record with a 2.10-ish ERA for a division champion, I like his chances.
NL Cy Young
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (143)
2. Jacob deGrom, Mets (136)
3. Brandon Woodruff, Brewers (133)
4. Walker Buehler, Dodgers (132)
5. (tie) Corbin Burnes, Brewers (131)
Kevin Gausman, Giants (131)
7. Wade Miley, Reds (128)
8. (tie) Max Scherzer, Dodgers (125)
German Marquez, Rockies (125)
Freddy Peralta, Brewers (124)
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook
Wheeler +200
Buehler +300
Woodruff +500
Gausman +550
Burnes +650
Scherzer +1400
DeGrom +2000
What AXE sees: Being there counts for a lot when evaluating a starting pitcher in 2021, and Wheeler has a chance to double-up deGrom's innings total. He'll be pitching in big games down the stretch for a team that's risen in the standings, while deGrom has been on the sidelines while his team has fallen apart. That deGrom still rates so highly is a testament to his historical dominance, but there just hasn't been enough of it.
What Dave says: DeGrom is sitting on 92 innings. Even if he comes back in September and -- optimistically -- makes five starts and pitches 30 innings, that only gets him up to 122. Wheeler is already at 156 and will soar well past 200. As dominant as deGrom has been, Wheeler's workload and excellent numbers make him my favorite right now over Buehler, Woodruff, Gausman and deGrom, especially since he's doing this with the awful Phillies' defense behind him.
Last word from Brad: I don't think this is over. Wheeler has to keep the accelerator to the floor. DeGrom is probably a long shot even if he gets back soon. But if he comes back and throws 30 innings and allows like two runs and he's the reason the Mets catch and pass the Phillies, maybe there is a path. And Woodruff gets overlooked. There's really not that much to separate him from Wheeler and again, alluding to the Brewers tight, low-scoring playing style, Woodruff actually leads NL pitchers in wins probability added and championship probability added. Also, don't overlook Buehler, who could end up something like 17-2 with a sub-2.00 ERA.
AL Rookie of the Year
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. (tie) Randy Arozarena, Rays (116)
Adolis Garcia, Rangers (116)
3. Luis Garcia, Astros (115)
4. (tie) Garrett Whitlock, Red Sox (111)
Akil Baddoo, Tigers (111)
6. (tie) Eric Haase, Tigers (110)
Casey Mize, Tigers (110)
What AXE sees: Arozarena and Adolis Garcia are basically dead even in value metrics, while Arozarena has a slight edge in win probability. There are not a lot of high-level candidates in this race.
What Dave says: This is a pretty dull rookie race. Adolis Garcia has tailed off. Arozarena has been pretty good, although he will be hurt by the expectations after his superb playoff performance last season. Mize and Luis Garcia have been the top starters, but Garcia has the much better peripherals and rates a big edge in my book. I'd probably vote Luis Garcia and Arozarena as a clear 1-2 right now, with Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase third. Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah is making a late run to push into the top three despite limited innings.
Last word from Brad: He's just off the leaderboard, but I could see Chicago's Andrew Vaughn making a run. First, there is the narrative that he held down the fort in left field, and unfamiliar position, until red-hot Eloy Jimenez could get back in the lineup. After a slow start at the plate, Vaughn has hit .318/.373/.551 since the beginning of July. Arozarena feels like a stale choice since it's almost like he isn't really a rookie. Adolis Garcia's ill-discipline at the plate has taken over the latter part of his season. But this is another race that will be decided in September.
NL Rookie of the Year
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Trevor Rogers, Marlins (121)
2. Jonathan India, Reds (120)
3. (tie) Patrick Wisdom, Cubs (112)
Ian Anderson, Braves (112)
4. Kyle Muller, Braves (107)
6. Tyrone Taylor, Brewers (106)
7. (tie) Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pirates (105)
Dylan Carlson, Cardinals (105)
Tyler Stephenson, Reds (105)
What AXE sees: Rogers and India have separated from the pack. Both have considerable leads in consensus WAR among their position groups, with Rogers leading NL rookie hurlers and India pacing NL position players.
What Dave says: Rogers is the leader now, but he's at 110 innings and the Marlins may end up capping him at 130 or so. That helps India, who could become just the fifth qualifying rookie of the division era (since 1969) to post a .400 OBP. The others: Aaron Judge (2017), Albert Pujols (2001), Mitchell Page (1977) and Fred Lynn (1975).
Last word from Brad: Dave's point about Rogers' innings total is crucial. The Marlins are playing for 2022 and have no reason to push Rogers' innings total, especially after he logged just 28 innings last season. Not only is India neck and neck with him already, but he's been coming on strong for a team making a run for a postseason slot. Since David Bell inserted India into the leadoff spot for Cincinnati on June 5, the Reds have gone 35-23. Unless he goes into a late slump, I think India wins this one going away.