About two weeks before the July 30 trade deadline, the Chicago Cubs' brain trust started gathering at its Wrigley Field office and formulating the plan that would change the course of the franchise. The group was not simply going to be aggressive at the deadline. If everything went right, the organization was going to trade the three pillars of the Cubs' first championship in 108 years and the closer it had acquired in hopes of securing another.
That second title never came, and neither did the almost inevitable contract extensions that would have accompanied it, and so the foundation of what happened on the 30th -- the Cubs methodically dismantling themselves through trades of Craig Kimbrel, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant a day after they'd shipped out Anthony Rizzo -- was actually years in the making.
Still, as calculated as it was, as well as president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his small circle executed four major deals when other organizations couldn't gather the gumption to pull off one, the reverberations of the Cubs' deadline maneuverings felt like years-later aftershocks from the Big One of 2016. Even internally, it was impossible to stay completely stoic, with the witch's brew of emotions tied to this group of players and that team: elation followed by disappointment, joy coupled with sadness.
Baez, Bryant and Rizzo meant everything to the Cubs. And if all went well leading up to the deadline, they'll mean everything to the next iteration of the club, too, because a Chicago team that for years has drafted and developed poorly compared to its moneyed counterparts got an infusion of talent that, combined with the haul from the Yu Darvish trade, sets the stage for the Cubs' future.
The maneuvering started Thursday -- later than rival teams anticipated. They figured Hoyer, the longtime general manager/consigliere who took over as president when Theo Epstein resigned in November, would have left himself a little more runway than 24 hours to deal. That wasn't necessary. Over those previous two weeks, the Cubs had identified the potential trade partners for their core four. Now, it was time to execute.
Rizzo, their 31-year-old first baseman, went first. He was the heartbeat of the championship team and those since, and the New York Yankees had expressed interest in him early. The Boston Red Sox, with their underperformance at first base, seemed the better fit on paper, but their pursuit of Rizzo never came close to a deal. The Yankees' desire to overhaul a stagnant offense -- and the addition of outfielder Joey Gallo from the Texas Rangers -- increased their urgency. From the beginning, the Cubs wanted Kevin Alcantara, a tooled-up 19-year-old outfielder -- 6-foot-6, 190 pounds, with massive power potential and skills already showing up in rookie ball. The Yankees added right-hander Alexander Vizcaino, and the first deal was done.
The next morning, everyone on the Cubs -- players, front office, staff -- prepared for a day of mixed feelings. Even today, with the disappointment of the past five seasons, 2016 felt ever present, the perfect moment that, though impossible to replicate, was worth chasing. July 30 would officially end that chase.
In the morning, it became clear to the New York Mets that Bryant, who had long been tied in rumors to the organization, was going elsewhere, and that Baez, the dynamic shortstop whose offensive shortcomings are more than made up for by his fielding and baserunning, was their best target. Though Cincinnati and Atlanta dabbled with pursuing Bryant, two teams had made him a priority: San Francisco and Tampa Bay. And while the Kimbrel market hadn't materialized as bountifully as expected, the Rays were in on him, too, as was a team that surprised the rest of baseball.
For more than a week, the Chicago White Sox had expressed interest in Kimbrel, the best closer in baseball this season, despite signing another elite closer, Liam Hendriks, to a big-money deal this winter. The White Sox's calculus was simple: They felt like they were one great bullpen arm away from being an elite team -- maybe the best in the American League -- and only two were available. The price on one, Cleveland's Emmanuel Clase, was so prohibitive no team met it. Kimbrel would cost, but it was a cost the White Sox were willing to pay.
The centerpiece of the deal would be Nick Madrigal, the second baseman with unparalleled bat-to-ball skills -- and a hamstring tear that would sideline him for the remainder of the season. The Cubs needed to consider all the factors with such a trade: Madrigal's lack of power in a game defined by it; the possibility of the hamstring injury limiting his speed, one of his best assets; and the optics of Kimbrel, who is under contract through the end of the 2022 season, closing out a World Series for their crosstown rival. Ultimately, with right-hander Codi Heuer also in the trade, the Cubs recognized there wasn't going to be a better deal -- and they took it.
They had workshopped a number of possibilities with the Rays, one of the most creative teams in baseball and one with a loaded farm system. One incarnation, as The Athletic reported, would have sent star right-hander Tyler Glasnow from the Rays to the Cubs. But the uncertainty over Glasnow's right elbow -- something that would manifest itself soon after the deadline, when a bullpen session to test the elbow didn't go well and would lead to Tommy John surgery -- was enough to put up a blockade on such a deal and lead the Cubs elsewhere.
As the Kimbrel deal was being finalized, the Cubs were approaching the finish line on another trade: Baez to the Mets. Externally, Baez was seen as the least likely to be dealt, but as the deadline approached and the Cubs' tack became clearer, and the Mets balked at the prices on other players on the market, the match made more and more sense. Baez could play shortstop while Francisco Lindor recovered from an oblique injury, then slide to second base upon his return.
The Mets' reticence to give up prospects was understandable. They were resigned at that point to not signing Kumar Rocker, their first-round draft pick last month, and unlike the Yankees or Rays, they weren't in the position to trade from minor-league depth. Rivals consider their system extremely top-heavy, and getting Baez was going to take a single prospect, not a package.
That prospect, it turned out, was one who had turned the heads of Cubs scouts during the fall instructional league. Typically, instructs is off-limits for teenagers, but Pete Crow-Armstrong was not a standard teen. The Mets were giddy when he dropped to them with the 19th pick in the 2020 draft, and while opinions on him across the game vary -- some evaluators believe he's a star-in-the-making, others see him as a fourth outfielder -- Crow-Armstrong is a left-handed-hitting center fielder who attended Harvard-Westlake, the Los Angeles high school with a long history of churning out excellent pros.
With Baez, the Cubs got lucky. The Mets were interested in a high-impact infielder and a starting pitcher -- and the Colorado Rockies had shortstop Trevor Story and right-hander Jon Gray, both impending free agents, who fit the bill perfectly. The Rockies, for reasons still not understood around the game, didn't trade either. And so the Mets trained their focus on Baez and right-hander Trevor Williams, and Crow-Armstrong was the price they paid.
Three down, one to go. Bryant has long been seen as the best of the Cubs core: a Rookie of the Year in 2015, the NL MVP during the championship season in 2016 and a reliable and versatile performer since. The clock was ticking, and the Cubs went into the final hour before the deadline without a Bryant deal. As talks with Tampa Bay stalled, San Francisco became a clear target. Hoyer didn't need to worry about rapport getting in the way. The Giants' GM, Scott Harris, was part of the Cubs' front-office core in 2016.
That didn't mean either would give the other a favor. Bryant was valuable. Both knew it. And between Alexander Canario and Caleb Kilian, the Cubs received a talented outfielder and a right-handed pitcher with the lowest fielding-independent pitching number -- a metric that takes into account strikeouts, walks and home runs and is seen as predictive -- in the entire minor leagues.
All in all, between the July 15 trade of Joc Pederson that started the Cubs' moves and the frenzied final 24 hours that ended with Jake Marisnick going to San Diego, Chicago traded eight players and acquired 12. Out went Baez, Bryant, Kimbrel, Rizzo, Pederson, Williams, Marisnick and relievers Ryan Tepera and Andrew Chafin, and in came Madrigal, Heuer, Crow-Armstrong, Canario, Kilian, Alcantara, Vizcaino, former top prospect Anderson Espinoza (Marisnick), first baseman Bryce Ball (Pederson), left-hander Bailey Horn (Tepera), first baseman Greg Deichmann and right-hander Daniel Palencia (Chafin).
It was a mixture of present talent and upside, of hitting and pitching. As much as the Cubs targeted what they felt was the most value they could get, the mixture they got will enrich a system that looks far better than it did a year ago. Outfielder Brennen Davis is crushing it in Double-A at 21. Outfielder Owen Caissie, 18, has looked like the best player in the Arizona Complex League, and 18-year-old shortstop Reggie Preciado has been almost as impressive. Both came to the Cubs in the offseason deal that sent Cy Young runner-up Darvish to San Diego.
That trade started what the deadline day finished: a new era on the North Side of Chicago. The effect of July 30 for the Yankees, Mets, Giants and White Sox made itself clear immediately: Rizzo, Baez and Bryant all homered in their first games with their new teams, and Kimbrel threw perfect innings in his first two outings. For the Cubs, the results won't be known for years. When they are, they can only hope the legacy of 2016 -- and what it ultimately wrought -- stretches well into the 2020s.
Emptying the trade notebook
The business of trades is brutal, unrelenting, unforgiving. Because here's the truth: Gallo and Trea Turner, two of the best players dealt at the deadline, wanted to stay long-term with the Rangers and Washington Nationals, respectively. And yet they are now with the Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers because baseball is as much a business as it is a game.
The Yankees couldn't be much happier with their deadline, and understandably so. The addition of Gallo and Rizzo completely overhauled their lineup. No longer are they too right-handed. No longer are they too on-base deficient. The New York front office's aggressiveness on the market did not match its on-field team's performance, but GM Brian Cashman chose to operate based more on what he -- and others -- believed the Yankees should be as opposed to what they've been.
Texas' attempts to lock up Gallo long-term were never going to work, not because the Rangers were being cheap or Gallo and his agent, Scott Boras, were unreasonable but because a player with his skill set is far likelier to get maximum value on the free-agent market. Gallo is a better all-around player than Chris Davis ever was, and while his $161 million deal has been regrettable for the Baltimore Orioles, it's an on-the-books standard for a player of their ilk. Gallo will hit free agency a year earlier than Davis did, and his career on-base and slugging numbers are almost identical -- with Gold Glove-caliber outfield defense to boot.
Turner leaving was a consequence of many things. The first was the shortstop market. After Fernando Tatis Jr. signed for $340 million and Lindor followed with a $341 million deal, the standard for best-of-the-best shortstops had been set. Turner didn't necessarily need $340 million from the Nationals. He may have settled in the high $200 million range, in fact -- something the Dodgers now can pursue, as they did with Mookie Betts.
But the compounding factor was the Nationals' already-robust commitments. There aren't many, but they are substantive. At $35 million a year for the next five seasons, Washington starter Stephen Strasburg is awfully costly -- particularly considering the first two years of his deal, at that same annual rate, produced 26⅔ innings of 5.74 ERA baseball and two surgeries. Patrick Corbin will make $23.4 million, $24.4 million and $35.4 million over the next three seasons -- and he has a 5.78 ERA over 20 starts this year. Max Scherzer went to the Nationals in the Turner blockbuster, and the team over the next seven seasons will pay him $105 million in deferrals.
In other words, for three pitchers -- two of whom have been ineffective and one of whom won't even pitch for the team -- the Nationals will be paying $73.4 million in 2022, $74.4 million in 2023 and $85.4 million in 2024. They want to sign Juan Soto long term and could backload a deal to alleviate that, but he's going to cost at least $35 million a year on average. And with Turner clearly a $30 million-plus player, the Nationals were looking at payroll commitment well past $100 million with 20 roster spots left to fill.
Could they have done so? Sure. Should they have? Maybe. Did they? Nope.
And so the Dodgers, flexing their developmental might as much as their financial, gave up catcher Keibert Ruiz and pitcher Josiah Gray to headline the return for Scherzer and Turner. Ever since Nationals GM Mike Rizzo had put Turner on the market alongside Scherzer, the Dodgers dreamed of the possibility of acquiring both. And when Rizzo resolved to move Scherzer on Thursday, a day before the deadline, the Dodgers sprang into action.
Did the spurious reports of Scherzer's imminent trade to San Diego motivate the Dodgers to push for the bigger package? They certainly didn't hurt. It was finally time to weigh the consequences of giving away as much value as they did in Ruiz, Gray, right-hander Gerardo Carrillo and outfielder Donovan Casey. Considering the depth in the Dodgers' system and their seeming unending and unmatched ability to draft and develop well, the trade came together in a couple hours.
Then there was the matter of Scherzer approving it. His 10-and-5 rights allowed him to veto any deal. Joining the Dodgers appealed the most to him, and after 24 hours of negotiating concessions and ensuring the players' medicals were clean, the deal was made official in the final hour before the deadline.
It slipped under the radar because of the fervor the night prior and because of the Cubs' maneuvers. But come October, provided they remain healthy, the Dodgers will trot out the most talented team in the game -- and, especially if they overtake the Giants in the NL West, enter the month as favorites to win the World Series.
The best Julys since 1776
Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, Los Angeles Angels: He was the No. 1 seed in the Home Run Derby and the next day batted leadoff and started for the American League All-Star team. He finished the month batting .282/.396/.671 in 101 plate appearances -- only seven hitters had a better OPS -- and had arguably the best month of his pitching career. Ohtani faced 75 batters and held them to a .181/.200/.306 line. If Ohtani's collective opponents were one batter, their OPS would rank 168th of 173 qualified hitters in July. Can you say MVP?
Juan Soto, LF, Washington Nationals: The day after the Home Run Derby, the wise Eduardo Perez came up to me and said: "Soto's swing is fixed. Just watch." I watched Soto over the next 17 games slash .373/.519/.780 with seven home runs, 16 RBIs and 18 walks vs. 11 strikeouts. The power stroke is back. The discipline is as good as ever. Even with a neutered lineup, get ready for the next two months. Soto is primed to cook.
Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds: It's been four years since Votto hit the ball with this much authority. After a career based around patience, the 37-year-old is abiding by a new principle: hit the ball hard. His average exit velocity is up more than five mph over last season, to 92.6 mph, good for 14th in baseball among those with at least 200 batted balls. The results in July: a big-league-best 11 home runs and .734 slugging percentage.
Tylor Megill, SP, New York Mets: The best ERA among pitchers with at least 25 innings in July belonged to Megill, the 26-year-old chosen in the eighth round of the 2018 draft. His 95-mph fastball is fine, but it's his slider and changeup that allowed him to navigate his five starts during the month without allowing more than one run. Megill got roughed up in his first August start, but the Mets went 4-1 in the rookie's July outings, helping keep them afloat amid Jacob deGrom's absence.
Milwaukee Brewers: Six Brewers pitchers started games in July. Here were their ERAs: 1.20, 2.08, 2.14, 2.25, 2.30 and 3.56. Collectively, Brett Anderson, Eric Lauer, Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff had a 2.40 ERA -- nearly a half-run better than the next-best team, the New York Yankees -- and it wasn't a fluke, either. Milwaukee's starters were the only ones in baseball with a sub-3.00 FIP, too. Want to know why Milwaukee frightens the standard bearers of the NL? Its pitching really is that good.
Eight minor leaguers you should know about
Orelvis Martinez, SS, Toronto Blue Jays: Everyone was asking the Blue Jays for Martinez, and the conversations started and stopped there. His 19 home runs are the most of any teenager in organized baseball, and his 68 RBIs rank second in the minor leagues. In a loaded Blue Jays system, he might be the best of the bunch, though now comes another test: Toronto just promoted the 19-year-old to high-A.
Curtis Mead, IF, Tampa Bay Rays: Where the 20-year-old Australian winds up on the diamond is up in the air. With his bat, it won't really matter. Snaked from Philadelphia in a November 2019 trade for Cristopher Sanchez, Mead has distinguished himself even while in baseball's best farm system. He's playing himself into Top 100 prospect territory.
MJ Melendez, C, Kansas City Royals: Two years ago, Melendez was a former second-round pick stuck in neutral. He struck out 165 times and batted .163 at high-A. Now, he's one of the most intriguing catching prospects in the game. His 25 homers rank second in the minor leagues. He's ready to join Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto, his fellow next-gen Royals, at Triple-A. And with a phenomenal arm, a great sense behind the plate and instincts honed by his father, Mervyl, a longtime success as a college coach, Melendez looks like the whole package.
Graham Ashcraft, Cincinnati Reds: The 23-year-old right-hander is like a Corbin Burnes starter kit. His main offering is a cutter that sits at 96-98 mph. He complements it with a slider, a burgeoning changeup and a curveball. And after years of struggling to throw strikes, he has found the zone this season and given the Reds something to dream about alongside Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, the best 1-2 pitching prospect punch in baseball. Most impressive about Ashcraft isn't the raw stuff or the 96 strikeouts in 77⅔ innings. It's the number of home runs he has allowed in his 15 starts this season: zero.
Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks: Taken in the fifth and final round of the shortened 2020 draft, Pfaadt was a little-known right-hander out of Bellarmine University in Kentucky. His first pro season couldn't be going much better, with 107 strikeouts against 19 walks in 84⅓ innings. He could move quickly through a Diamondbacks system with plenty of young, electric arms, and while he doesn't have a No. 1-starter ceiling, Pfaadt is the sort who could pitch in the big leagues for a long time.
Wilkelman Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox: Scouts are buzzing about Gonzalez, a 19-year-old Venezuelan who has been nearly unhittable since his first two starts in the Florida Complex League. In his third outing, he punched out nine Rays in five no-hit, no-walk innings, and in his four starts since then, he has struck out 25, walked six and yielded 11 hits in 20 innings with a 1.35 ERA. Gonzalez stands only 6-foot and is right-handed, so the physical profile doesn't scream star, but the stuff is good enough that in an improving Red Sox system, he'll find himself near the top of lists.
Ryan Pepiot, Los Angeles Dodgers: Another popular trade-deadline target, Pepiot may replace Gray as the best pitching prospect in the Dodgers' system. His changeup is his calling card, and he has ridden it and better fastball velocity to the cusp of the major leagues. Bobby Miller may have more upside, but the 23-year-old Pepiot is going to be with the big league club sooner rather than later.
Robert Hassell III, San Diego Padres: When the Padres were attempting to dump Eric Hosmer's contract at the deadline, every team with interest gravitated toward the same player to accompany the $59 million: Hassell, the eighth pick in last year's draft. It's easy to see why. The 19-year-old left-handed hitter is batting .311 in his first minor league season and, even better, has shown phenomenal plate discipline. The power hasn't come yet. Scouts are convinced it will, and when it does, Hassell could find himself regarded as one of the 25 best prospects in baseball.
Five August stories worth watching
1. The next step in the sexual assault allegations against Dodgers starter Trevor Bauer should be coming this month.
A police investigation into Bauer is expected to wrap up soon, and when it does, the district attorney in Pasadena, Calif., will decide whether to recommend charges. If she does, Bauer will not be back with the Dodgers this season. If she does not, however, that could lead MLB to levying discipline under its domestic-violence policy and a suspension would keep him away from the team, too. Either way, it's increasingly unlikely that Bauer returns to the Dodgers this year -- and a number of people around the team wonder if he ever pitches for them again.
2. While MLB has managed COVID-19 outbreaks without a significant disruption this season, the emergence of the Delta variant -- and its severe consequences already playing out across the country -- could force the league to, at very least, consider a postseason contingency plan. Would baseball bubble again? It's unlikely, but if the case load continues to jump -- currently, Gerrit Cole, Josh Hader, Trea Turner, Christian Yelich, Daniel Hudson and Nick Anderson are on the COVID injured list -- MLB will be forced to examine a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option.
3. Will Tatis Jr.'s uncanny ability to heal from a dislocated shoulder in seemingly superhuman time continue? The Padres are bracing for bad news with Tatis, the NL MVP favorite whose shoulder popped out for a third time this season and will require surgery at some point. If over the next week Tatis feels right, or at least on the path toward it, he could return. Otherwise, the Padres will be faced with a loss as devastating as that of Ronald Acuna Jr.'s ACL tear to the Atlanta Braves.
4. The return of Red Sox ace Chris Sale from Tommy John surgery is nigh, and it couldn't come at a much better time. Boston is foundering -- not in any danger of dropping out of a playoff spot yet but showing cracks that didn't appear over the first 100 games. The Red Sox's pitching, in particular, is vulnerable, and even if Sale has the typical Tommy John command issues this year, he's still their best starter and the reason they didn't think it necessary to add to their rotation at the deadline.
5. Whither deGrom? His last start came July 7, and the earliest he's expected to pitch in the big leagues again is September. At least this month will offer a better idea of where the best pitcher in baseball stands health-wise. Of course, that's a start-by-start state of affairs, and nothing much has changed on this point: With deGrom, the Mets are still a legitimate World Series threat, and without him, the likelihood of that dissipates far closer toward a first-round playoff washout.
678 words about something very important
Give the new owner of the Mets, Steve Cohen, credit: He doesn't mind saying the quiet part out loud. In a tweet following the Mets not even offering their first-round pick, Kumar Rocker, the opportunity to sign because of what the organization deemed internally a bad medical report, Cohen stood up for the team's decision by pointing toward his understanding of value -- and implying that signing Rocker would not have provided it.
Education time - Baseball draft picks are worth up to 5x their slot value to clubs .I never shy away from investments that can make me that type of return.
- Steven Cohen (@StevenACohen2) August 1, 2021
There's a lot to unpack here. Let's start with the valuation. Cohen admitted what people inside the game have long understood: The draft severely suppresses the guaranteed money those in it receive. A 5x multiple may be light. If Jack Leiter were a free agent, all 30 teams would be willing to offer him much more than $40 million, which is five times what he actually received.
By saying this, it makes what happened with Rocker that much more of a joke. A team can choose a player, unilaterally decide it does not want that player, freeze him in a year-long limbo without being able to sign with another team and then reap almost the exact same draft pick the next year. The player, meanwhile, has no recourse. The imbalance is laughable.
For anyone who suggests that Rocker had it coming, considering he chose not to divulge his medical information to teams: Others, including Leiter, didn't fork over their medicals, either. The desire to keep all 30 teams from knowing your medical history is not a sin, not when teams have been known to weaponize that information. It's certainly not the sort of thing that should prevent a player from starting his professional career.
There needs to be a balance. Teams can't just dump players if they don't like what they see. Players can't avoid signing and be given immediate free agency; all the best would refuse to sign. There is a system that could work, though it would take multiple tweaks in the current collective-bargaining agreement to make happen.
It starts with allowing the trading of draft picks. Beyond the myriad opportunities it allows for other transactions, it gives someone like Rocker an out. This week, two GMs said they liked Rocker and didn't believe they'd be concerned enough about his medicals to forgo an opportunity at signing him. That's easy to say without having seen them, of course, but a point even those who advocate for universal distribution of medicals make is that at some juncture, a team will deem the risk worth it. And if that team isn't the one that takes the player, that team should be incentivized not to send the player back into the draft pool but somewhere else.
The compensation element would need to be adjusted, certainly. Say a player is hurt and a team doesn't want to sign him: If the recourse is a near-equal pick, the player is stuck. If a team can only reap a second-rounder, on the other hand, the calculus changes, and either the team will sign the player or ship him elsewhere.
Further, the behavior of the teams would be far different if the compensation structure changed. A player who declines to provide medical information would almost certainly slide lower in the draft -- which, in theory, would incentivize players to open their medical files, which is the goal of the league. The players win, the league wins. That's what compromise is.
Yes, the unintended consequences of trading picks could be significant. But the idea that doing so would further the issues in which the best players don't always go at the top of the draft is folly. The near-universal top three players this year, Leiter, Marcelo Mayer and Jordan Lawlar, went with the No's. 2, 5 and 6 picks. That issue already exists.
As screwed up as the draft can be -- and as antiquated as it is, something Marc Normandin argues very convincingly -- it's not going anywhere. So it's incumbent on the league and union to fix it and make sure what happened to Kumar Rocker doesn't happen again.