We're already a quarter of the way through the 2021 MLB season, so it's time to take stock of how this year's major awards races are shaping up.
While it's far too early to tell who will take home baseball's MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year hardware so far, the names who will be at the heart of this year's conversation are starting to take shape.
We asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield to break down where the awards battles stand right now using Doolittle's AXE formula and their own takes on the top candidates.
AL MVP
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Byron Buxton, Twins (140)
2. Mike Trout, Angels (136)
3. Shohei Ohtani, Angels (133)
4. J.D. Martinez, Red Sox (130)
5. Jose Ramirez, Indians (128)
6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (127)
7. Yuli Gurriel, Astros (125)
8. Jared Walsh, Angels (124)
(tie) Cedric Mullins, Orioles (124)
(tie) Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers (124)
Why AXE likes Buxton: In a nutshell, Buxton was clubbing every pitch he could get to and catching every ball that a human being could possibly track down in center field. This is the best we've seen from Buxton. Unfortunately, the bugaboo of Buxton's career has been an inability to stay on the field. And here we are again, as he's out with a hip injury. Unless Buxton returns sooner than expected, the AL MVP race could end up as a fascinating showdown between two superstar Angels, and we would get to have all kinds of fun debates about the real value of Ohtani's two-way act.
What Schoenfield says: Buxton was probably a good bet to slow down at the plate anyway as he has gone on these benders before, so Trout might have been the favorite even if Buxton had remained healthy. What complicates further is even if Buxton does return and manages to play 130 games -- Mookie Betts played 136 games his MVP season and Trout 134 when he won in 2019, so 130 is about the bare minimum needed -- the Twins and Angels are both big disappointments in the standings so far. Barring a reversal there, that might hurt their players in the voting (although Trout won on a 72-90 team in 2019, so it's not as much of a factor as it once was).
I'll throw out a couple of names not in Brad's top 10. One is Gerrit Cole, who isn't listed because he's a pitcher, but he's been absolutely ridiculous so far with a 1.37 ERA as his command seems to have gone to another level (78 K's, three walks). A pitcher has a legitimate chance only if no position player stands out and that isn't the case right now. Don't sleep on Alex Bregman, who finished second to Trout in 2019. He's off to a solid start, but historically April has been his worst month by far, so given that career trend his numbers should only improve the rest of the way (August and September have been his two best months).
Last word from Doolittle: It's hard to look at Trout high up on a leaderboard and not think he's going to end up on top. That would be the safe pick. But keep an eye on Jose Ramirez, who has been terrific and is the one standout in a fairly lackluster Indians lineup. If Cleveland continues to contend all season, Ramirez's contributions are going to swell in importance and he'll have the narrative boost from several narrow misses in MVP voting in years past.
NL MVP
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Jesse Winker, Reds (133)
2. Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves (131)
3. Carson Kelly, Diamondbacks (129)
4. Kris Bryant, Cubs (127)
5. J.T. Realmuto, Phillies (124)
(tie) Trea Turner, Nationals (124)
7. Max Muncy, Dodgers (123)
8. Buster Posey, Giants (122)
9. Asdrubal Cabrera, Diamondbacks (120)
10. Nick Castellanos, Reds (120)
(tie) Bryce Harper, Phillies (120)
(tie) Nolan Arenado, Cardinals (120)
Why AXE likes Winker: We've seen Winker get hot and produce like an MVP type before, only to disappear into a funk and go like six weeks without putting the ball in play. So we'll see. He's still a Frankenstein in the field, but his OPS+ ranks second in the National League. What puts him over the top in the AXE system is his contextual stats. Winker's 2.1 wins probability added leads all big league hitters by a pretty good margin.
What Schoenfield says: Winker over Acuna? I feel like if the vote were held today Acuna might be near unanimous pick. He's hitting for power, and he's hitting for a much higher batting average as he has cut his strikeout rate nearly in half. That bodes well for his keeping this going all season. Throw in the potential for 30 steals, and his stat line is going to look really pretty (his defensive metrics are way down, however, so keep an eye on that).
Certainly, I expect Mookie Betts' numbers to start climbing. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto missed time and are off to somewhat slow starts, but can easily dominate over the next four-plus months and put themselves in the MVP discussion. Tatis' struggles in the field (11 errors already), however, are going to be a big mark against him even if his batting average starts to go up alongside the home runs. While Trout has a chance to just run away from the rest of the competition in the AL, the NL field looks much deeper, which means secondary factors like team finish or memorable moments or the best stretch run might have a bigger influence.
Last word from Doolittle: The NL race looks wide open. Acuna keeps getting hurt and the Braves are a big disappointment. Posey is interesting, especially if the Giants hang in at the top of the NL West. Bryant looks like his old MVP self, but who knows where he'll be playing by the end of the season. And it's not hard to imagine Harper and Arenado moving quickly up this leaderboard.
AL Cy Young
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. John Means, Orioles (139)
2. Gerrit Cole, Yankees (133)
3. Shane Bieber, Indians (127)
4. Danny Duffy, Royals (124)
5. Tyler Glasnow, Rays (123)
(tie). Matthew Boyd, Tigers (123)
7. Kyle Gibson, Rangers (122)
8. Carlos Rodon, White Sox (121)
9. Matt Barnes, Red Sox (120)
(tie) Kendall Graveman, Mariners (120)
Why AXE likes Means: If you're drafting for the rest of the season, you're not going to take Means over the two guys behind him. But this rating speaks to how great he has been even beyond his no-hitter. He leads the majors in ERA and ERA+ and is tied for the MLB lead in no-nos, but the top of that leaderboard is crowded.
What Schoenfield says: I've watched three of Means' starts, and he absolutely has been the real deal so far. He throws harder than when he first came up and does a great job of getting his fastball in on right-handed batters and then getting them to chase the changeup away. The swing-and-miss rate is in the 78th percentile, he doesn't walk many and he induces soft contact.
That said ... how do you bet against Cole right now? He already has created some distance from Shane Bieber, last year's winner who entered the season as the co-favorite alongside Cole. Bieber's advantage is pitching in a division with some weak offenses, although he doesn't get to face his own. Glasnow would be the fourth guy I would include here as he has the big strikeout rate and is finally pitching deeper into games. He doesn't yet have Cole's game-to-game consistency or command, but if he can get close to 200 innings he has a chance.
Last word from Doolittle: Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes set a big league record just a few days ago by reaching 58 straight strikeouts before he walked a batter. Cole, at that time, was at 56, so Burnes had to figure his stay in the record book would be short. Cole is as good as ever, which means he has to be the favorite in this race.
NL Cy Young
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Jacob deGrom, Mets (142)
2. Huascar Ynoa, Braves (128)
3. Brandon Woodruff, Brewers (126)
4. Corbin Burnes, Brewers (125)
(tie) Zack Wheeler, Phillies (125)
6. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (124)
7. Kevin Gausman, Giants (123)
8. Zach Eflin, Phillies (122)
9. Wade Miley, Reds (119)
10. Josh Hader, Brewers (118)
(tie) Max Scherzer, Nationals (118)
(tie) Jon Gray, Rockies (118)
Why AXE likes deGrom: Well, he's Jake deGrom, and he's the best pitcher in baseball. The only thing that can derail him is injury, which of course is what's happening right now. Assuming he gets back soon and stays healthy, he will cruise to a third Cy Young Award. He was already the best in the game, but so far he's putting up his best rates of strikeouts and walks yet.
What Schoenfield says: It's all about deGrom making enough starts and pitching enough innings, because he has somehow figured out a way to raise his game to another level. He's so good that this could be like Kershaw's Cy Young (and MVP season) in 2014, when he won while making 27 starts and pitching 198 innings (which isn't so low now, but even seven years ago ranked just 20th in the NL). Of course, Kershaw also went 21-3 that year ... which deGrom is unlikely to do, not that he can't go 18-1 the rest of the way!
Woodruff is my No. 2 guy at the moment. Hey, remember my bold prediction at the start of the season: Woodruff and Burnes combine for 35 wins and a sub-3.00 ERA and the Brewers win the NL Central. I might be wrong there. It could be a sub-2.00 ERA. Woodruff already has a nine-inning advantage over deGrom and 15 over Burnes, so quantity could end up being his big selling point. I was surprised Yu Darvish didn't crack the early leaderboard, but a lot of NL pitchers are shoving right now. After allowing four runs in his first start, he has a 1.47 ERA and .155 batting average allowed.
Last word from Doolittle: We're still early enough that we haven't totally sorted out the hot starts from the real leaders, and you see that in some of the names that pop up here. Ynoa might be the most unlikely name on any of these lists, but where would the Braves be without him? Where will they be if he regresses to the mean? Chances are, if a real challenger emerges against deGrom, it'll be one of the Brewers' co-aces or perhaps St. Louis' Jack Flaherty (117 AXE), who could be on the way to an eye-popping win total and has good supporting numbers to go with it.
AL Rookie of the Year
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Adolis Garcia, Rangers (120)
2. Yermin Mercedes, White Sox (117)
3. Dane Dunning, Rangers (113)
4. Michael Kopech, White Sox (112)
5. Randy Arozarena, Rays (110)
Why AXE likes Garcia: Garcia, 28, has been a great story for the Rangers, slugging near .600 while playing solid defense in the outfield. This is a player whom the Cardinals more or less set adrift after the 2019 season. As someone who has been playing professionally since 2011, Garcia is not the kind of guy you think of when you look for standout rookies. But he wouldn't be the first Rookie of the Year who combined a career season and a well-timed entry into the majors with his rookie status intact.
What Schoenfield says: Garcia and Mercedes are not the type of rookies who traditionally fare well in the voting, even if they continue to play well. Not including older Japanese players who have won, only two "older" rookies have won in the past 25 years: deGrom, who was 26 in 2014, and Bob Hamelin, who was 26 in 1994. Of course, Arozarena is also 26 and was considered the preseason favorite. Strikeouts have been a big problem for him so far. He's not chasing, but simply swinging and missing -- a lot -- at pitches in the strike zone. And if Mercedes hits .350 or whatever, yes, he's going to win.
Kopech has dominated for the White Sox in a hybrid starter/reliever role. It would be an unusual path to ROY, but if he pitches 100 to 120 innings, he has a chance to rack up a lot of strikeouts. Don't forget that teammate Nick Madrigal retained his rookie status and Andrew Vaughn gives the White Sox a fourth candidate. He hasn't hit for much power yet, but he's getting on base.
Of course, the Mariners just called up Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert, who both have ROY potential. Rookie closers have historically fared well in the voting, so keep an eye on Cleveland's Emmanuel Clase, who has a low ERA although more hits and walks than his stuff should allow.
Last word from Doolittle: It's way too early to read much into rookie leaderboards. Garcia could disappear from the leaders in two weeks. Mercedes could do the same in Chicago, though he has been amazing so far. Kopech could enter the White Sox's rotation at some point, and if that were to happen, his candidacy could take off. And top prospects like Kelenic are just making their debuts. Stay tuned.
NL Rookie of the Year
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Trevor Rogers, Marlins (116)
2. Jazz Chisholm, Marlins (114)
3. Ian Anderson, Braves (113)
4. J.P. Feyereisen, Brewers (111)
5. Ryan Weathers, Padres (107)
Why AXE likes Rogers: Rogers wasn't the most touted of the Marlins' young arms entering the season, but so far in 2021, he has been the best of them. He leads the staff in ERA and FIP, and of the seven rotation wins the Marlins have gotten, Rogers has five of them. He has averaged a 62 game score and put up at least a 50 in all of his outings.
What Schoenfield says: Rogers hasn't been a fluke, with a strikeout rate in the 87th percentile, an equally high swing-and-miss rate and an expected batting average allowed of .189, matching the .197 he actually has allowed. He's throwing his fastball over 62% of the time, which goes against the current trend of throwing fewer fastballs, but it works and his changeup has neutralized right-handed batters. He looks like the real deal. Whether he can keep this up for 160 or more innings is the question all young starters have to answer.
Chisholm, Rogers' teammate, looked great until a hamstring injury sidelined him, but he's expected back soon. The impressive thing about his start was his plate discipline -- he still has big swing-and-miss issues, but he's not a wild hacker like his minor league strikeout rates might suggest and the ball really jumps off his bat. He was also 7-for-7 stealing bases. I'm not sure if he can keep the batting average over .250 over the entire season, but if he does he's going to be right there with Rogers and Anderson in the voting.
Dylan Carlson doesn't show up above, but he would be a fourth strong contender. He succeeds despite a low hard-hit rate, and maybe you can question whether he can keep hitting .285 doing that, but it worked for him in the minors and he does hit for some power.
Last word from Doolittle: If the leaderboard stays like this, and it probably won't, you wonder if the fact that Anderson got so much exposure with his late-season and postseason success last year would actually work against him. As good as Rogers has been, a couple of bad starts could push him back. If that happens, Chisholm really has the look of a classic Rookie of the Year type, as an everyday player who is contributing in every phase of the game, and doing it with a pleasing amount of flair.