As we lean into the second month of the 2021 MLB season, we've reached an always interesting time on the baseball calendar. We've got a few weeks of tangible evidence describing what's happened, but it's a little too early to say for sure what any of it means.
May is also a crucial month because by Memorial Day, teams will begin making some hard assessments of what they have. Some will turn their attention to the trade deadline and positioning for the future. Others will scramble to patch roster holes that have opened up, either due to disappointing performances or a key injury, hoping to remain part of the playoff derby. Teams are just beginning to separate themselves in the standings, but for most clubs, everything remains on the table.
As usual, we'll rank the teams according to my power rating, which is basically a baseline forecast for the strength of a team's roster given its probable depth chart over the rest of the season. That is displayed along with results of 10,000 simulations, which use the power rating to fold in the results to date with the remainder of the schedule. There are a lot of factors in play: Injuries. Individual forecasts that have evolved based on early results. Playing-time decisions. This is my attempt to make sense of it all.
So how does your club stack up?
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Power rating: 98.9
Avg. simulation wins: 103.1 | Change from preseason: -3.7
Division %: 90.8 | Playoff %: 98.9
Pennant %: 48.4 | Title %: 31.1
A good thing: The Dodgers lead the majors in raw run differential. They're fifth in runs per game and seventh in runs allowed per game. It has been a wonky start but taken as a whole, the underlying strength of L.A.'s injury-riddled roster remains evident.
A not-so-good thing: The high-leverage component of the Dodgers' bullpen has yet to crystallize. Los Angeles is in the middle of the pack (19th) in reliever win probability added and 21st in reliever bWAR. That has played a part in the Dodgers' MLB-high total of nine one-run losses.
2. New York Yankees
Power rating: 93.6
Avg. simulation wins: 97.1 | Change from preseason: -0.6
Division %: 79.4 | Playoff %: 92.3
Pennant %: 37.5 | Title %: 21.4
A good thing: The Yankees got off to such a slow start that a mild panic started to break out in the Bronx. Luckily, a stretch against the AL's lesser lights gave the Bombers a chance to string some wins together and release some of the external pressure that was building up.
A not-so-good thing: Baseball's most power-laden roster has delivered barely more than four runs per game, ranking in the bottom third of MLB. And power has been the biggest shortfall, as the Yankees rank just 15th in isolated power. Perhaps the impending return of first baseman Luke Voit will be the jolt the New York offense has needed.
3. Houston Astros
Power rating: 92.2
Avg. simulation wins: 91.4 | Change from preseason: -1.6
Division %: 44.1 | Playoff %: 73.3
Pennant %: 16.5 | Title %: 7.7
A good thing: The pitching staff has mostly withstood some early issues exacerbated by injuries to Jake Odorizzi, Enoli Paredes and Pedro Baez. Cristian Javier has looked like an ace for most of the season.
A not-so-good thing: This is a pivotal season for Jose Altuve, who last season posted a career-worst .629 OPS. So far this season, he's at .667. Altuve once seemed like a candidate to amass 3,000 hits. Now Houston needs him to at least get back to league average.
4. Chicago White Sox
Power rating: 90.7
Avg. simulation wins: 86.0 | Change from preseason: +3.6
Division %: 37.5 | Playoff %: 47.0
Pennant %: 5.9 | Title %: 2.0
A good thing: While he's not an outfielder, third-string catcher Yermin Mercedes filled the offensive void opened up by Eloy Jimenez's preseason injury with a historic start to the season, working mostly as a designated hitter.
A not-so-good thing: Just as the White Sox were closing in on the top three of my power rankings, star center fielder Luis Robert went down for three to four months because of a hip injury. Thus the simulation results above, which still look pretty good, are down considerably from what they were just a few days ago. Chicago's biggest question between now and next month's Stock Watch is what happens at that position.
5. San Diego Padres
Power rating: 89.0
Avg. simulation wins: 89.7 | Change from preseason: -1.1
Division %: 8.5 | Playoff %: 64.4
Pennant %: 6.5 | Title %: 2.9
A good thing: The Padres' pitching staff has been battered by injuries -- the list includes Dinelson Lamet, Jose Castillo, Michel Baez, Taylor Williams, Dan Altavilla, Adrian Morejon, Chris Paddack and Matt Strahm -- and yet San Diego has been the stingiest run-prevention team in the majors during the opening weeks.
A not-so-good thing: The Padres profiled as one of baseball's most dangerous home run teams before the season but that's been missing to a large extent during San Diego's disappointing start on offense. Only two teams have a lower slugging percentage and those clubs (Pittsburgh and Detroit) are working under considerably lower expectations than the Padres.
6. Boston Red Sox
Power rating: 88.1
Avg. simulation wins: 83.1 | Change from preseason: +3.9
Division %: 5.7 | Playoff %: 24.7
Pennant %: 2.2 | Title %: 0.7
A good thing: At 33, could J.D. Martinez bounce back from a 2020 season in which he hit just .213 with seven homers and 27 RBIs in 54 games? Um, yeah. Last year's down season looks like a bizarre outlier in the wake of Martinez's start to this season: .348 average, 10 homers, 31 RBIs in 30 games.
A not-so-good thing: It's been a mostly upbeat start for the first-place Red Sox. One sore spot has been at first base, where Boston ranks last in the majors in bWAR. It's not all on Bobby Dalbec, but the powerful 25-year-old has not continued the momentum of his eight-homers-in-23-games debut last season. Dalbec is hitting just .174/.228/.279 in the early going.
7. St. Louis Cardinals
Power rating: 88.0
Avg. simulation wins: 88.1 | Change from preseason: +5.3
Division %: 38.5 | Playoff %: 57.0
Pennant %: 5.8 | Title %: 2.3
A good thing: After a bumpy start, things have really stabilized for the Cardinals' rotation during the team's recent rise in the standings. The contributions have been multiple, with Jack Flaherty pitching like a No. 1, swingman John Gant providing an essential boost and Kwang Hyun Kim performing well after returning from injury. But perhaps the most encouraging development of late has been the past three starts for Carlos Martinez: 21⅓ innings, two earned runs allowed.
A not-so-good thing: The St. Louis bullpen has been largely reliable in high-leverage spots, but the relief staff has lacked quality depth, a problem made worse by the continued struggles of veteran left-hander Andrew Miller. Now Jordan Hicks, who looked fully revved up after a long recovery from Tommy John surgery, has hit the shelf again with elbow inflammation. The Redbirds need another power arm to emerge out of the bullpen.
8. Oakland Athletics
Power rating: 86.8
Avg. simulation wins: 90.8 | Change from preseason: +1.0
Division %: 35.3 | Playoff %: 68.3
Pennant %: 11.9 | Title %: 4.6
A good thing: The 2021 Athletics started like the 1915 Athletics but recovered to end the month looking like the 1974 Athletics. Bob Melvin's bullpen has been the strong spot, as the A's rank in the top 5 in reliever win probability added and are 7-2 in one-run games. Leading the way is underrated veteran relief workhorse Yusmeiro Petit, who, by the way, sat for most of the winter stuck in free-agent limbo.
A not-so-good thing: Matt Chapman's all-or-nothing approach continues to yield less and less production. While Chapman may never have been a threat to win a batting title, his plummeting average is a problem. Since 2018, the progression of his batting average has gone .278, .249, .232 to .205 so far this season. Oakland doesn't need Chapman to hit .300. They just need him to make enough consistent contact to do damage. So far, that's not happening.
9. San Francisco Giants
Power rating: 86.2
Avg. simulation wins: 77.4 | Change from preseason: +7.8
Division %: 0.3 | Playoff %: 6.7
Pennant %: 0.2 | Title %: 0.1
A good thing: This rating! No team has improved so much from its preseason forecast than the first-place Giants. The credit mostly goes to a lights-out performance by Frisco rotation. Kevin Gausman, Johnny Cueto & Co. have baseball's second-best average game score (58.3) and have a game score won-loss record of 21-10, also the second-best mark in the game.
A not-so-good thing: After positioning himself for MVP contention a season ago, Mike Yastrzemski is off to a slow start for a team that needs every threat it can find. Yastrzemski's strikeout rate is up more than 8%, all the way to 32.6, and that's been the culprit in the dip in his batting average from .297 to .215.
10. Toronto Blue Jays
Power rating: 85.6
Avg. simulation wins: 81.9 | Change from preseason: +1.4
Division %: 4.3 | Playoff %: 19.5
Pennant %: 1.6 | Title %: 0.6
A good thing: Toronto's bullpen looked like a question mark entering the season, but it has arguably been baseball's best in the early going. The Blue Jays rank third in reliever win probability added and first in reliever bWAR. All the more impressive in this area is that Charlie Montoyo has coaxed this performance from a group without a lockdown closer.
A not-so-good thing: A rotation that looked like a question mark entering the season ... remains a question mark. Hyun Jin Ryu, Robbie Ray and Steven Matz have mostly been OK, but after that, it's been an absolute scramble. The Jays rank 26th in average game score.
11. Tampa Bay Rays
Power rating: 83.7
Avg. simulation wins: 85.9 | Change from preseason: +0.0
Division %: 10.5 | Playoff %: 39.5
Pennant %: 4.7 | Title %: 1.9
A good thing: Those who predicted that Tyler Glasnow would cement his status as an elite starter this season: good call. Glasnow has been one of baseball's best starters and most valuable players overall during the opening weeks. He's putting up an average game score of 68 while giving Kevin Cash 6.2 innings per start. He's an ace.
A not-so-good thing: The Rays pride themselves on depth but a wave of injuries to the pitching staff has pushed the limits of Tampa Bay's bullpen resources. As a group, the relief staff has posted break-even win probability added while producing right at replacement level as a group. These are not things we're used to seeing from the Rays.
12. Atlanta Braves
Power rating: 83.2
Avg. simulation wins: 90.5 | Change from preseason: -5.3
Division %: 49.9 | Playoff %: 71.0
Pennant %: 15.3 | Title %: 7.4
A good thing: Ronald Acuna Jr. has taken his game into the stratosphere. He was the first player to reach double digits in homers, has an OPS of more than 1.100 and probably has been the National League's best player during the first few weeks of the season.
A not-so-good thing: The Braves' starting pitching has pretty much been a mess. It would be worse if not for the emergence of Huascar Ynoa, who has averaged a game score of 61 while striking out 30% of opponents and hitting two home runs at the plate. But overall, the Braves rank in the bottom third in walks allowed and bottom five in opponent homer percentage.
13. Cleveland Indians
Power rating: 82.7
Avg. simulation wins: 82.6 | Change from preseason: -0.1
Division %: 18.5 | Playoff %: 26.2
Pennant %: 2.4 | Title %: 0.8
A good thing: Shane Bieber has once again been dynamite. He's averaged more than seven innings per outing, a 65 game score and sports a strikeout-minus-walk percentage of 31%. Even so, Bieber's game score record is just 3-4, which tells you a lot more about the Indians' inconsistent offense than Bieber.
A not-so-good thing: The Indians have produced just enough power on offense to stay afloat, but at some point, even in a 2021 context, you figure they are going to have to get more runners on base. Cleveland is hitting .212 as a team (28th in MLB) with an on-base percentage of .298 (27th).
14. Minnesota Twins
Power rating: 82.3
Avg. simulation wins: 85.4 | Change from preseason: -5.3
Division %: 37.3 | Playoff %: 46.5
Pennant %: 8.5 | Title %: 3.4
A good thing: Byron Buxton has put it all together by obliterating everything that's been thrown to him and catching everything that's been hit to him in centerfield. Buxton's .496 wOBA is probably not sustainable. Then again, his expected wOBA, per Statcast, is .454, ranking seventh in the majors.
A not-so-good thing: Alex Colome has been a disaster at the back of the hugely disappointing Minnesota bullpen. His minus-2.0 wins probability added is easily the worst mark in baseball. In fact, my awards index system (AXE) rates Colome as baseball's third-least productive player in the early going. Some of that, of course, is the quantity of his opportunity but, then again, that's kind of the point.
15. Chicago Cubs
Power rating: 81.8
Avg. simulation wins: 88.1 | Change from preseason: -2.7
Division %: 39.8 | Playoff %: 56.7
Pennant %: 7.6 | Title %: 3.5
A good thing: The Cubs looked like a team spiraling out of contention early on, but give them credit. They looked like a middling club capable of winning a weak division before the season. Now they've recovered from the woeful start to still be a middling club capable of winning a weak division. If that happens, Kris Bryant is putting up numbers that would put him in contention for another MVP award.
A not-so-good thing: The Cubs rank dead last in average game score and starting pitcher bWAR. Kyle Hendricks, Trevor Williams and Zach Davies all have ERAs north of six. The good news is that it would seem like there is nowhere for those numbers to go but up (or down, as would be the case for ERA). If they don't, a middling finish may be the best outcome the Cubs can hope for.
16. Milwaukee Brewers
Power rating: 81.7
Avg. simulation wins: 85.3 | Change from preseason: +2.1
Division %: 20.3 | Playoff %: 37.6
Pennant %: 2.9 | Title %: 0.8
A good thing: Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta may be baseball's best rotation big three right now. Burnes has gone to another level, posting an average game score of 70 during his five outings with a strikeout-minus-walks percentage of 45%. And that number is entirely comprised of strikeouts, as Burnes has yet to walk a batter.
A not-so-good thing: Milwaukee's bullpen has been very good, with Josh Hader dominating from the back end and J.P. Feyereisen emerging to become a lights-out high-leverage option. However, last year's sensation -- Devin Williams -- has struggled with command as he looks to build on his Rookie of the Year campaign. If Williams can rediscover that form, look out.
17. New York Mets
Power rating: 81.2
Avg. simulation wins: 88.5 | Change from preseason: -2.6
Division %: 34.2 | Playoff %: 59.3
Pennant %: 9.6 | Title %: 4.2
A good thing: The Mets get to send Jacob deGrom to the mound (and the plate) every fifth day, or they did until he turned up with right lat inflammation. DeGrom entered the season wearing the crown as baseball's best-right-now pitcher and he's only widened the gap between him and everyone else so far this season.
A not-so-good thing: The Mets projected to feature one of the game's best offenses after fielding strong attacks the past two years and adding superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor to the mix. Yet the Mets have sunk near the bottom of the majors in runs per game, with Lindor posting an early .504 OPS and even earning a few boos from the inpatient Citi Field faithful. Lindor has struggled, but by no means is he the only Mets hitter to disappoint.
18. Los Angeles Angels
Power rating: 80.8
Avg. simulation wins: 87.3 | Change from preseason: +2.3
Division %: 19.9 | Playoff %: 50.5
Pennant %: 8.3 | Title %: 3.5
A good thing: Mike Trout may be even better than ever, as if such thing could even be imagined. He's hitting .380 with a 1.224 OPS, which is amazing enough, but consider the depressed level of offense in baseball. Trout has an MLB-best OPS+ of 241 to start the season. Trout's career high in that metric is 198, set in 2018. It's simply amazing.Trout's career high in that metric is 198, set in 2018. It's simply amazing.
A not-so-good thing: Let me know if you're read this before: The Angels' rotation is a major problem. L.A.'s average game score (48.2) ranks 24th in the majors, the same slot in which they rank in rotation bWAR. Dylan Bundy is averaging six innings per start, while Andrew Heaney just reached five with his solid outing against the Rays on Thursday. The Angels don't have another starting pitcher who has averaged even that many, not even the often-unhittable Shohei Ohtani.
19. Arizona Diamondbacks
Power rating: 79.1
Avg. simulation wins: 77.5 | Change from preseason: +2.4
Division %: 0.4 | Playoff %: 6.8
Pennant %: 0.3 | Title %: 0.1
A good thing: Led by breakout catcher Carson Kelly, the Diamondbacks' offense has been a pleasant surprise, as Arizona ranks third in runs per game. While that's aided by park effects, the Snakes also rate highly by contextualized measures and have done so with a balanced attack. This has all happened with offensive cornerstone Ketel Marte sitting out with a hamstring injury, and Marte may be back soon.
A not-so-good thing: Arizona is 1-4 in one-run games, which reflects a porous bullpen that has been in the red in wins probability added and below replacement overall. This will have to change if the Arizona continues to hover on the fringe of wild-card contention.
20. Seattle Mariners
Power rating: 78.1
Avg. simulation wins: 73.0 | Change from preseason: +2.8
Division %: 0.5 | Playoff %: 1.8
Pennant %: 0.1 | Title %: 0.0
A good thing: The Seattle bullpen has been terrific and is the big reason why the Mariners have managed to stay over .500 through the first few weeks of the season. Starter-turned-relief ace Kendall Graveman has been a revelation. Graveman has not been scored on during 11 appearances and leads all big league pitchers in wins probability added.
A not-so-good thing: The Mariners' offense has been anemic across the board, ranking in the bottom five of all the major percentage categories. Of biggest concern are four struggling hitters who the Mariners hope are a big part of their future: Taylor Trammell, Kyle Lewis and Evan White are all hitting under .200. And Luis Torrens is at .214.
21. Kansas City Royals
Power rating: 78.0
Avg. simulation wins: 77.5 | Change from preseason: -0.5
Division %: 6.6 | Playoff %: 9.6
Pennant %: 0.5 | Title %: 0.1
A good thing: The Royals have ridden a 6-2 record in one-run games, some outlying clutch hitting marks and a tepid first month in their division to a relatively long early stay in first place. The good news is that while some of the underlying metrics don't support the won-loss record, there are a number of key contributors who have fallen short of projection and really no one who has overachieved. If Hunter Dozier, Jorge Soler and Adalberto Mondesi (who has yet to make his season debut) do what they were supposed to do, the Royals should feature a strong attack.
A not-so-good thing: An overreliance on veteran reliever Greg Holland has bitten the Royals at times. More a nibbler than a power guy at this point, Holland's FIP (6.64) is not the kind of thing you want to deploy in a high-leverage spot. The problem: Who is a better option? Josh Staumont is one of the game's best relievers, but K.C. is badly in need of a second closeout arm to emerge as a reliable option for Mike Matheny. The Royals have won the tight ones, but there have also been too many games in which an opponent's late rally turns into a landslide.
22. Washington Nationals
Power rating: 77.7
Avg. simulation wins: 83.7 | Change from preseason: +0.1
Division %: 13.1 | Playoff %: 29.9
Pennant %: 2.8 | Title %: 0.9
A good thing: The Nationals have played sterling defense during the first few weeks, helping prop up a roster that's battled underperformance and injuries. Washington leads the majors in defensive runs saved.
A not-so-good thing: The Nationals have hit for average and gotten on base at a good clip, but they still rank near the bottom in scoring because no one has swung a consistent power bat to clean up the basepaths. Now that Juan Soto is back, that could be about to change.
23. Philadelphia Phillies
Power rating: 76.5
Avg. simulation wins: 77.7 | Change from preseason: +1.5
Division %: 2.8 | Playoff %: 8.1
Pennant %: 0.4 | Title %: 0.1
A good thing: Bryce Harper's 189 OPS+ is his best since he put up a historic 198 at the age of 22 in 2015. He's slugging near .600 and leads the NL in on-base percentage. This is why the Phillies paid so much to get him.
A not-so-good thing: Alas, Harper has only 10 RBIs and it's not his fault. Despite Harper's league-best OBP, the Phillies rank 26th in the majors in that category as a team and last in the NL. Harper has a 1.083 OPS with runners in scoring position. The problem is that he's had just 12 plate appearances in that situation.
24. Cincinnati Reds
Power rating: 76.3
Avg. simulation wins: 74.1 | Change from preseason: -2.8
Division %: 1.4 | Playoff %: 3.3
Pennant %: 0.2 | Title %: 0.0
A good thing: The Reds have led the majors in runs per game all season, though contextual metrics take a lot of air out of that measure because of Great American Ballpark. Still, the Reds have gotten some sterling starts at the plate from the likes of Nick Castellanos, Jesse Winker and both of their primary catchers (Tyler Stephenson and Tucker Barnhart).
A not-so-good thing: Here's a metric I keep: a reliever won-loss record based on whether he produced positive or negative win probability added in an outing. I then adjust that number so that the league mark is .500. The Reds' percentage in that column is .445, ranking 25th in the majors. The avatar for the sporadic showing is intense lefty Amir Garrett. Garrett has the highest average leverage index of any Cincinnati reliever. His ERA is 10.38.
25. Miami Marlins
Power rating: 75.7
Avg. simulation wins: 67.0 | Change from preseason: -0.3
Division %: 0.1 | Playoff %: 0.3
Pennant %: 0.0 | Title %: 0.0
A good thing: The Marlins have been competitive for the most part. In fact, for the past couple of weeks, Miami has been the only NL East team with a positive run differential. The Marlins' run prevention has been very good, mostly because of a young rotation that has been terrific. Trevor Rogers, Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez all have average game scores of 59 or better and as a team, Miami ranks third in rotation bWAR.
A not-so-good thing: The Marlins' strategy of poaching relievers from contenders has yet to pay off. Yimi Garcia, Dylan Floro and John Curtiss all have decent ERAs, but Miami still ranks 22nd in reliever win probability added. The disparity is entirely situational. Marlins relievers rank seventh in ERA. But according to Trumedia, the bullpen has given up a whopping .490 wOBA in high-leverage situations.
26. Texas Rangers
Power rating: 73.4
Avg. simulation wins: 70.6 | Change from preseason: -4.3
Division %: 0.2 | Playoff %: 0.8
Pennant %: 0.0 | Title %: 0.0
A good thing: he Rangers rank ninth or better in bWAR at three of the four infield positions. Nick Solak, Nate Lowe and Isiah Kiner-Falefa have been Texas' top three players and, best of all, they are all pieces of the long-term puzzle in Arlington. They've been only so-so at third base, but the good news is that, according to ESPN's Kiley McDaniel, Texas' top prospect -- Josh Jung -- is a third baseman.
A not-so-good thing: The Rangers have used just six starters through the first few weeks, a rare bit of stability in this area given the current MLB landscape. The group ranks ninth in rotation bWAR -- good news! -- but, alas, the production has been top-heavy. Kyle Gibson has been really good and Dane Dunning, Texas' primary return from the White Sox in the Lance Lynn trade, looks like a keeper. But Kohei Arihara and Jordan Lyles have been getting blitzed on a regular basis. Thus consistency is the bugaboo: Texas ranks just 25th in average game score.
27. Baltimore Orioles
Power rating: 71.6
Avg. simulation wins: 65.2 | Change from preseason: +0.6
Division %: 0.0 | Playoff %: 0.1
Pennant %: 0.0 | Title %: 0.0
A good thing: Led by a solid defense and a strong bullpen, the Orioles have not been a run-prevention disaster. In fact, they've been solidly middle of the pack. As for that bullpen, Baltimore ranks 11th in reliever win probability added and third in bWAR. They aren't household names, but nearly all the highest-leverage guys have been getting the job done: Paul Fry, Cesar Valdez, Adam Plutko, Tanner Scott and Dillon Tate.
A not-so-good thing: John Means has a 1.37 ERA and an average game score of 70 after no-hitting the Mariners this week. And while Matt Harvey hasn't been Dark Knight good, he's been solid enough to attract trade interest from a contender looking to fill the back of the rotation. That's it for good news among Baltimore's starters and if the O's do look to flip their most productive hurlers, it could really get ugly.
28. Pittsburgh Pirates
Power rating: 65.6
Avg. simulation wins: 64.2 | Change from preseason: +1.7
Division %: 0.0 | Playoff %: 0.1
Pennant %: 0.0 | Title %: 0.0
A good thing: The Pirates are another seeming non-contender that has remained competitive because of good defense and a bullpen that's helped them win a lot of close games. Pittsburgh, too, could be looking to leverage some of this as the trade deadline approaches. Richard Rodriguez especially would be an attractive option for a team playing for high stakes, but don't sleep on veteran Kyle Crick, who has never looked better during his time in Pittsburgh.
A not-so-good thing: It's kind of a tough sell for fans when your best story is guys building up trade value. For Pittsburgh, that's especially true when your most interesting player -- Ke'Bryan Hayes -- has missed nearly the entire season because of a wrist injury. He has started taking live BP, so perhaps May's Pirates will get the boost that April's Pirates did not.
29. Colorado Rockies
Power rating: 64.8
Avg. simulation wins: 56.9 | Change from preseason: -0.9
Division %: 0.0 | Playoff %: 0.0
Pennant %: 0.0 | Title %: 0.0
A good thing: Trevor Story remains one of baseball's best shortstops, doing absolutely nothing to hurt his trade value during the first few weeks of the season. And the guy who will be deciding on whether to cash in that trade value before Story hits the open market will not be former GM Jeff Bridich, whose line of credit with Rockies fans maxed out with the preseason trade of Nolan Arenado.
A not-so-good thing: The Rockies' bullpen has really struggled, with key contributors Ben Bowden, Daniel Bard and Yency Almonte all getting hammered in the early going.
30. Detroit Tigers
Power rating: 56.3
Avg. simulation wins: 60.9 | Change from preseason: -4.8
Division %: 0.0 | Playoff %: 0.0
Pennant %: 0.0 | Title %: 0.0
A good thing: The Tigers plucked a high-ceiling talent from the Minnesota organization when they selected Akil Baddoo in the most recent Rule 5 draft. Baddoo was one of baseball's biggest early stories. It was never going to last. Baddoo lacked experience at the upper levels of the minors and his track record where he did play underscored the excessive swing-and-miss in his game. But he's an exciting player and the exact kind of player the Tigers need to acquire and develop.
A not-so-good thing: So much to choose from. Maybe that's the not-so-good thing for Detroit: It's pretty much all been bad. The offense is baseball's worst. The rotation has been middling for the most part, mostly thanks to a strong start by Matt Boyd. But neither Casey Mize nor Tarik Skubal have distinguished themselves. The bullpen ... a horror show. The defense ... in the bottom five by defensive runs saved. It can only get better, right? Right?