General managers and managers will say it takes about 40 games -- or about a quarter of the season -- before they start getting a good feel for their team. So passing judgment before the 30-game mark is a little early, but the one-month mark does feel like a good time to assess what we've seen so far.
The biggest story has been the low batting averages across the sport, with an MLB-wide .234 average entering Monday's action bringing back memories of the infamous 1968 season. The other story is the early parity across the sport. Only five teams began Monday more than four games out of first place. The biggest division lead was Boston's 1½-game advantage in the AL East and Kansas City's edge in the AL West. Injuries have been a major obstacle already for some teams, and the runner-on-second rule in the 10th inning remains controversial.
Let's go through all 30 teams and assign a grade on their April performance, grading against their preseason expectations. We've included playoff odds from FanGraphs entering Monday's games, noting how much they have changed from the preseason odds. All stats are through Sunday.
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The high achievers | The C-class | Hey, at least you passed | The two Fs
Playoff odds: 17.1% (+11.1%). The projections still favor the Dodgers and Padres, but the Giants have made themselves interesting, as they began the week a half-game ahead of the Dodgers -- whom they have yet to play.
Best storyline: They lead the majors with a 2.34 ERA heading into the week, and it hasn't been a fluke. They've allowed a .202 average and an MLB-low .569 OPS. Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood have looked great, which could put Farhan Zaidi in an interesting position in July. All three are free agents and could extract some prospects if he deals them. The strong start, however, means the Giants may still be in the playoff race at the trade deadline.
Mulligan: The only major hiccup has been relievers Matt Wisler and Gregory Santos, who are a combined 0-4 with 16 runs allowed in 11 innings.
Playoff odds: 51.9% (+13.8%). The Yankees are still the division favorites, but the Red Sox have put themselves even with the Blue Jays.
Best storyline: The reports of J.D. Martinez's demise were greatly exaggerated, as he's bounced back from a rough 2020. He begins the week leading the majors in RBIs, tied for first in home runs and extra-base hits, and third in OPS. With Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and Alex Verdugo joining Martinez, the top of the Boston lineup is as good as any in the majors.
Mulligan: The Franchy Cordero experiment is not working out. He has yet to homer and has fanned in 42% of his plate appearances after coming over from Kansas City this offseason.
Playoff odds: 21.2% (+11.9%). The Royals were a popular sleeper team heading into the season, and Minnesota's slow start has opened up the AL Central.
Best storyline: Danny Duffy, now in his 11th season with the Royals, is 4-1 with an 0.60 ERA. His fastball velocity is up 1.5 mph from the past two seasons, with big jumps in spin rate and strikeout rate as well. With Brady Singer emerging as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter, the rotation looks much improved.
Mulligan: Jorge Soler and Hunter Dozier, the power bats in the middle of the lineup, are both hitting under .200 with just five combined home runs.
Playoff odds: 66.3% (+24.5%). The Brewers have made the largest jump from their preseason odds, even though Christian Yelich has just one RBI and is out with back issues.
Best storyline: Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are a combined 4-2 with a 1.68 ERA through 11 starts, including Burnes posting a ridiculous 49 strikeouts and no walks. Burnes is currently on the injured list with an undisclosed ailment, but they look like a dominant 1-2 duo. With those two leading the way, the Brewers have gone 6-1 against the Dodgers and Padres.
Mulligan: Yelich had played just nine games and Lorenzo Cain (strained quad) had played just seven before both returned to the lineup Monday, so the offense has struggled at times. The non-injury mulligan goes to Keston Hiura, who was batting .152 with one home run and too many strikeouts before being sent to the alternate training site Monday.
Playoff odds: 40.3% (+6.9%). FanGraphs still likes the Astros and Angels more than the Athletics.
Best storyline: The 13-game winning streak. They threw four shutouts in five games at one point, including blanking the Twins in both games of a doubleheader.
Mulligan: The first six games, in which the A's were 0-6 and were outscored 50-13. Because of that bad first week, the A's began this week with a negative run differential, so I can't give them a solid A despite the winning record -- those first games count as well. They scored 11 runs in six games following the winning streak, so the jury is still out on this offense.
Playoff odds: 65.3% (+17.3%). Chicago's chances of winning the division have increased from 32% to 54%, although that doesn't factor in Luis Robert's torn hip flexor suffered Sunday that will sideline him 12 to 16 weeks, a major blow to the lineup and the outfield defense.
Best storyline: Yermin Mercedes is starting to tail off after his improbable start, so let's give the nod to Carlos Rodon for going 4-0 in four starts with an 0.72 ERA and, of course, that no-hitter against Cleveland. Remember, the White Sox non-tendered him after 2020 before re-signing him in February on a $3 million deal. Given some of the fliers given to other starters and their early results, Rodon looks like one of the best bargains of the winter.
Mulligan: Staff ace Lucas Giolito is 1-3 with a 4.99 ERA, although that's mostly due to one eight-run blowup over one-plus innings in an 11 a.m. Patriots' Day game at Fenway. In his next start, Tony La Russa left in a fatigued Giolito several batters too long and he surrendered a couple of extra runs. The swing-and-miss rate is down from the 94th percentile to 69th, but I don't see any major reason to be concerned.
Playoff odds: 5.0% (+3.3%). Good recovery from a 4-8 start, but they're stuck in baseball's best division.
Best storyline: Carson Kelly has been one of the best hitters in baseball so far, with power, walks and a .339 batting average, leading an Arizona offense that is second in the majors in runs even though Ketel Marte, Kole Calhoun, Christian Walker and Tim Locastro are all on the injured list. They'll get the Dodgers for the first time later this month.
Mulligan: Nick Ahmed, after beginning the season on the IL because of tendinitis in his knee, is off to a slow start with a .149 average. Maybe this is all good news for the Diamondbacks, as they're over .500 despite the injuries and should be back to full strength soon. Marte, Walker and Locastro are all getting closer to returning, in various stages of working out or playing at the alternate site.
Playoff odds: 35.1% (+6.0%). Feels like a typical Cardinals team: good enough to be good, but not good enough to be great. But in the NL Central, "good" just may work.
Best storyline: Yadier Molina was off to a great start with a .323 average and five home runs before landing on the injured list with a foot injury. It should be a short stay, but the production was a welcome boost from a player who hit four home runs in 42 games last season and 10 in 113 games in 2019. His start is a reminder that as long as Molina is playing, it should be in a Cardinals uniform.
Mulligan: Nothing really stands out, although Paul Goldschmidt is off to a .234/.281/.364 start with 29 K's against just seven walks, so they need his offense to pick up.
Playoff odds: 2.5% (-0.4%). Despite the surprising start, their playoff odds have actually declined, likely due to James Paxton's season-ending injury and an offense that is hitting .210.
Best storyline: Mitch Haniger is healthy and hitting, with seven home runs and an impressive 21 RBIs out of the leadoff spot, but the bullpen has been the story here with an MLB-best 2.30 ERA. Kendall Graveman is firing upper-90s smoke on the corners in late-game relief.
Mulligan: Paxton lasted just four outs in his return to Seattle before blowing out his elbow, an injury that looks even more damaging given the otherwise surprising start.
Playoff odds: 0.0% (no change). Still projecting a 66-96 record -- only a one-game improvement from the preseason projection.
Best storyline: Several fun stories here, including Cedric Mullins and John Means, but let's go with 36-year-old junkballing closer Cesar Valdez, who entered the season with 65 innings in the majors since 2010. The Orioles dug him up last year out of the Mexican League with his 85 mph fastball and a 78 mph changeup that he throws a ridiculous 82% of the time. Many teams are struggling to find a closer, and the Orioles are using a guy who doesn't throw as hard as your local high school kid.
Mulligan: Ryan Mountcastle entered 2021 with some helium after hitting .333 as a rookie in 2020 (he actually retained his rookie status despite playing 35 games), but he's off to a .214 start with 31 K's and just four walks. Scouts have long liked his hit tool, but he has to clean up that chase rate.
Playoff odds: 54.6% (+4.7%). Let's see if the offense takes off with George Springer and Teoscar Hernandez finally both back in the lineup.
Best storyline: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is crushing it with a .337/.486/.628 line, including more walks than strikeouts, which is something his daddy did four times in 16 seasons in the majors (with the help of many intentional walks). Dad also hit .300 in 12 consecutive seasons, so check back in 2032 to see how Junior is doing.
Mulligan: The Jays will score runs, but this whole pitching thing appears as problematic as it did in spring training. Toronto has already somehow deployed 11 different starting pitchers. Sure, a couple of those were openers and the Jays have had a couple of injuries, but this is a difficult way to juggle a pitching staff. It's worked OK so far, as the Jays are middle of the pack in ERA, but they're also last in innings pitched per start.
San Diego Padres: C+
Playoff odds: 95.2% (+2.7%). They are on a 90-win pace, but FanGraphs still sees a 95-win team here. I agree.
Best storyline: Joe Musgrove, a hometown kid, finally threw the first no-hitter in Padres history, so that was way cool, but I want to point out something else. The Padres lead the majors with 35 stolen bases (in 29 games), a 196-steal pace. The stolen base is not dead yet! The last team with more than 196 steals was the 2007 Mets, who swiped 200 bases, the only 200-steal season for a team since 1996. (Jose Reyes led the way with 78.)
Mulligan: Dinelson Lamet started on the injured list recovering from last fall's forearm tightness, made one start that lasted two innings and returned to the IL. He may return this week, and let's hope he's healthy the rest of the way. Still, the Padres' depth has been tested early, as Miguel Diaz, who owns a 6.62 career ERA and last pitched in the majors in 2019, had to start Monday's game.
Playoff odds: 64.2% (-6.7%). Offense is a problem across the league, but Houston can hit and the rotation has been OK. FanGraphs still likes the Astros as the AL West favorites.
Best storyline: What's going on with Yuli Gurriel? At 36 years old (37 in June), he's suddenly turning into Joey Votto. He entered 2021 with a career walk rate of 4.7% -- he didn't strike out much either, but he was certainly an aggressive, put-the-ball-in-play hitter. Now he's walking at a 14% clip, has more walks than K's and owns a .327/.421/.520 batting line.
Mulligan: They blew out the A's in that season-opening series but are under .500 since -- including 0-5 and being outscored by 17 runs against the Tigers and Rockies. They would like those five games back, that's for sure.
Playoff odds: 98.7% (+0.3%). They're fine, but even Mookie Betts said the team has been wasting too many days. In fact, the Dodgers are 4-10 heading into the week since Betts' miraculous game-saving catch against the Padres, and that's the worst record in the NL over that stretch.
Best storyline: The starting rotation has been as advertised, with Julio Urias in particular picking up where he left off last October and looking like he's finally making the leap to greatness. He's held batters to a .206 average and has issued just six walks in six starts. Not bad for a No. 4 starter. The rotation depth will be tested, however, with Dustin May now needing Tommy John surgery, and David Price (hamstring) and Tony Gonsolin (shoulder) still on the IL.
Mulligan: Sure, the Dodgers are measured against their lofty preseason expectations, and after that 13-2 start, we had every reason to believe they indeed could be a team that chases the single-season record of 116 wins. Then came that 3-10 stretch in which they hit .185, which pretty much crushed any chance at that record. The Dodgers would also like a mulligan on the ghost runner rule: They are 1-4 in extra innings.
Playoff odds: 86.1% (+4.2%). The slow start from the rest of the division has actually increased the team's playoff odds, even though the offense has struggled out of the gate.
Best storyline: Jacob deGrom, somehow reaching another level of performance.
Mulligan: Well, at least they're scoring more runs per game than the Tigers.
Playoff odds: 20.1% (-2.0%). They can hit! But can they pitch?
Best storyline: Tyler Naquin has been a nice find after Cleveland let him go, but after a five-hit, two-homer game on Sunday, Nick Castellanos is batting .330/.366/.660 with nine home runs. After hitting .212 in 2020 -- the lowest team batting average since the dead-ball-era White Sox hit .211 in 1910 -- the Reds begin the week leading the majors at 5.59 runs per game.
Mulligan: It was supposed to be Luis Castillo's time to shine as staff ace after Trevor Bauer left in free agency, but he is 1-3 with a 6.07 ERA, and batters are hitting .328 against him. Castillo's velocity is down about 1.5 mph, the command is way off and he's getting pounded, allowing harder velocity and more line drives.
Playoff odds: 21.3% (-3.0%). No team has been more "They are what we thought they were" than Cleveland, with good pitching and an anemic offense.
Best storyline: Jose Ramirez and Shane Bieber are stellar as always, but let's call out the bullpen duo of Emmanuel Clase and James Karinchak. Clase has allowed three runs but no earned runs -- two were on errors and one was the extra-inning ghost runner. Karinchak struggled with his control in spring training but has been dominant with 27 K's and just three hits allowed in 13 innings. He gave up his first run on a solo homer Monday; the other two hits were a popup double that fell behind shortstop because of a miscommunication and a soft line drive to right field.
Mulligan: How long do you go with the Amed Rosario experiment in center field? Learning a new position on the fly is one thing, but it's not like the bat justifies the short-term issues on defense anyway.
Playoff odds: 19.0% (-2.3%). Thank you, NL East, the worst division in baseball so far.
Best storyline: After sitting out 2020, Ryan Zimmerman decided NOT to retire, came back on a one-year, $1 million contract and was hitting .319/.347/.596 with several key hits, including a three-run home run in Sunday's 3-1 victory over the Marlins. With Josh Bell struggling, Zimmerman is hitting his way into more playing time.
Mulligan: Umm, maybe the entire Stephen Strasburg $245 million contract extension? After making just two starts in 2020, Strasburg made two in 2021 before landing on the injured list with shoulder inflammation. Hopefully it's just a short-term thing (he's been throwing on flat ground), but Strasburg and Patrick Corbin (8.10 ERA) would both like a do-over for April.
Playoff odds: 0.5% (-0.5%). The computers were never high on the Marlins to begin with, but they were another popular sleeper pick.
Best storyline: Trevor Rogers, Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez have been a formidable front three in the rotation, with Rogers emerging as an early leader for NL Rookie of the Year, going 3-2 with a 1.91 ERA while flashing some impressive swing-and-miss stuff from the left side.
Mulligan: Unfortunately, while the Marlins finished Sunday as the only NL East team with a positive run differential, they also finished the day in last place. The key do-over: The bullpen is next to last in the majors in win probability added.
Playoff odds: 0.5% (+0.1%). So the playoffs aren't impossible?
Best storyline: They actually had a chance to finish April with a winning record, standing at 12-11 until losing their final two games of the month. They've at least been respectable, with Richard Rodriguez locking down the late-game leads with just one hit allowed over his first 11.1 innings. He could be a valuable trade piece come July.
Mulligan: Coming off his big September and then a hot spring training, Ke'Bryan Hayes homered on Opening Day and then injured his wrist on a swing in the second game of the season. He aggravated the wrist last week while taking some swings while with the team in Detroit. Let's get him back.
Playoff odds: 48.3% (+9.1%). The Angels' odds have actually improved quite a bit, mostly due to the slow starts of some of the AL's projected top teams.
Best storyline: Mike Trout began the week hitting .413 and Jared Walsh was hitting .356. Both ranked in the top 10 in OPS, but both have been overshadowed by the two-way Shohei Ohtani show. Ohtani has given us power, with eight home runs, including a couple of majestic shots of 451 and 440 feet. He has given us speed, with two triples and six stolen bases. He has given us power pitching, with 23 K's in 13.2 innings. He needs to clean up the control (13 walks), but he's back as one of the most exciting players in the game.
Mulligan: You would think one of these years, the Angels would run into some dumb luck in the rotation with one of the veteran starters they always bring aboard having a big year. Last year, Julio Teheran (0-4, 10.05 ERA) was the big disaster. This year, they went for Jose Quintana and Alex Cobb. They are 1-3 in eight starts with an 8.49 ERA. This is why you need to develop some homegrown starters.
Tampa Bay Rays: C-
Playoff odds: 15.6% (-10.9%). They just look ... blah.
Best storyline: Tyler Glasnow is what we thought he might be, an overpowering presence on the mound who ranks sixth among starters in strikeout rate, third in lowest batting average allowed and first in hair. He had one five-run outing against the Blue Jays when he allowed two home runs, but has allowed one run or no runs in his other five starts.
Mulligan: With No. 1 overall prospect Wander Franco breathing down his neck in the minors, Willy Adames better get going as he's hitting .167/.202/.289. Adames entered 2021 with a 106 OPS+ in his career, so he's been solid along with his plus defense, but the strikeout rate is going in the wrong direction. The Rays will be reluctant to bench his glove, but they may need the offense Franco should provide.
Playoff odds: 15.4% (-0.6%). Another year, the same flawed team.
Best storyline: Bryce Harper survived getting hit in the face by a 97 mph Genesis Cabrera fastball, somehow missing only a couple of games. He's also off to a great start with an OPS over 1.000, hitting for average and power while drawing his usual slate of walks. He missed Monday's game with a sore wrist, although the Phillies are hoping he can avoid an IL stint.
Mulligan: No, not again. Yes, again. That bullpen. That defense. We saw all the Phillies' ugly warts in the Sunday night loss to the Mets when they made five defensive miscues and the bullpen coughed up a six-run eighth inning. The pen is 26th in the majors in win probability added.
Texas Rangers: C-
Playoff odds: 0.4% (-0.2%). This isn't a very good baseball team.
Best storyline: Kyle Gibson is 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA and has yet to allow a home run in six starts. Of course, if he keeps this up the Rangers may look to trade him.
Mulligan: Only the Pirates are striking out more often than the Rangers, and I keep staring at Joey Gallo's stat line with eyes wide shut. He's definitely taken the Three True Outcomes approach to the outer limits of the space-time continuum. In 117 plate appearances, he's hitting .222, which is pretty good for him, although with only two home runs. But he also has 24 walks, giving him a .402 OBP, and has struck out 45 times. So he has walked or struck out in more than half of his plate appearances. Throw in the two home runs and his TTO rate is 60.7%. The top five all time among qualified batters:
1. Gallo, 2021: 60.7%
2. Miguel Sano, 2020: 59.0%
3. Gallo, 2017: 58.6%
4. Jack Cust, 2007: 58.2%
5. Aaron Judge, 2017: 57.1%
New York Yankees: D+
Playoff odds: 83.1% (-8.9%). Well, the Tigers certainly showed up on their schedule at the right time. FanGraphs still views them as the big favorite in the AL East (56% odds to win the division).
Best storyline: For all the hype rightfully given to deGrom, his New York counterpart has been dominant as well. Gerrit Cole is 4-1 with a 1.43 ERA and a 62-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He allowed a home run and two walks on Opening Day and since then has pitched 32⅓ innings without a home run and just one walk.
Mulligan: The Yankees were scuffling along at 11-14 before sweeping the Tigers over the weekend. So we know the Yankees can beat a good Triple-A team! Gary Sanchez has lost his starting catcher role, but what's happened to Gleyber Torres? He's still sitting on zero home runs.
Playoff odds: 31.4% (-33.1%). The Braves have taken the biggest hit from their preseason playoff odds of any team.
Best storyline: Ronald Acuna Jr. is the early front-runner for NL MVP as he's hitting .333/.431/.708 with nine home runs, along with having as many walks as strikeouts, and several "Did you see that?" highlights on the basepaths.
Mulligan: How about that doubleheader loss when the Diamondbacks shut out the Braves in both games and Atlanta had just one hit? That was a low point as the offense got off to a slow start. The Braves did have their own doubleheader sweep (against the Nationals), but they're 0-4 in extra-inning games to put them at 2-6 in games with gimmick rules.
Chicago Cubs: D
Playoff odds: 22.9% (-20.0%). It hasn't been pretty, that's for sure.
Best storyline: Kris Bryant is off to a great start with a .323/.405/.708 slash line while starting games at third base, left field and right field. It's double good news for the Cubs: He's keeping the offense afloat while simultaneously rebuilding his trade value after a rough 2020. If the Cubs continue to struggle and as teams desperately search for offense, Bryant's multi-positional ability will put him in high demand.
Mulligan: The Cubs went all-in on softer-tossing starters, adding Zach Davies to go with Kyle Hendricks, but the two have combined for a 7.88 ERA after a 2.81 ERA in 2020 and 3.50 in 2019. If those two can get straightened out, don't discount the Cubs in a wide-open NL Central.
Colorado Rockies: D-
Playoff odds: 0.0% (-0.1%). FanGraphs now projects the Rockies with an MLB-worst 64-98 record.
Best storyline: Umm ... Jeff Bridich handed in his resignation as general manager and maybe the Rockies can finally close the door on what has been a rough period on many levels in Denver.
Mulligan: I know the record is ugly, but the run differential is nowhere near as bad as the Tigers and it's worth noting that 13 of their games came against the Dodgers and Giants, the two hottest-pitching teams in the league. The Rockies are 2-11 against them. Of course, they still have 25 games left against those two teams and 19 more against the Padres. Maybe their mulligan is just building a time machine, going back to 1993 and asking to be placed in the NL Central.
Playoff odds: 30.7% (-32.0%). They have the second-biggest decline in playoff odds after Atlanta, but there is plenty of season left to regroup.
Best storyline: The 40-year-old Nelson Cruz remains an ageless wonder, but Byron Buxton is off to a glorious start with all his tools flashing in a wonderful display of power, defense and speed. He began the week tied with Mr. Trout in FanGraphs WAR -- even though he missed six of the Twins' 26 games.
Mulligan: Kenta Maeda was second in AL Cy Young voting last year, but the Twins have won just one of his five starts, and that was against the lowly Tigers. He allowed 12 runs and six home runs in his prior two outings before going 5⅓ scoreless innings Monday against Texas. ESPN fantasy writer Tristan Cockcroft broke down Maeda's early struggles and says there are no glaring red lights, so look for better results moving forward.
Playoff odds: 0.0% (-1.2%). You're a long way from Houston, AJ Hinch.
Best storyline: Akil Baddoo was an unexpected surprise the first couple of weeks, but the league has already caught up to him, so let's go with Matthew Boyd. Coming off a disastrous 2020, Boyd is 2-3 with a 2.27 ERA and just one home run allowed in 35.2 innings, a nice change from his homer-prone ways of the past two seasons.
Mulligan: Unfortunately, the rest of the rotation, the bullpen (worst ERA in the majors) and basically the entire lineup (hitting .195) has been a disaster. Not much was expected from the offense, but the Tigers are supposedly rebuilding around young starters Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, who have combined for a 5.55 ERA and poor peripherals. Look, both are fewer than 15 starts into their big league careers, but the Tigers need to start seeing better results.