We're not supposed to overreact to April results. Baseball is a long season, small sample size, bad weather, luck hasn't evened out, and so on. That is the mature approach. A bad 12-game stretch in April stands out like Jazz Chisholm's bright blue hair, whereas the same 12-game stretch in July goes unnoticed.
But, react we must. It is the sacred duty of baseball scribes. The stat line is there, clear as the sky above Dodger Stadium, and the results mean something, they mean actual wins and losses in the standings. So let's take one surprise player from each team -- a good surprise or a bad surprise -- and examine their start and project if it's real or not.
(All stats through Monday.)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Carson Kelly (.318/.500/.705, 5 HR, 12 RBI)
Kelly had a solid first season in Arizona in 2019, after coming over in the Paul Goldschmidt trade, with a 111 OPS+ before struggling in 2020 and entering spring training in a battle for playing time with Stephen Vogt and Daulton Varsho. The Statcast numbers behind the hot start are legit -- he began the week with a barrel rate just ahead of Rafael Devers and Shohei Ohtani, for example - but what stands out is Kelly has more walks than strikeouts, improving his walk rate from 4.7% in 2020 to 22.6%.
Verdict: Real. I mean, he's not going to OPS 1.200 and his hard-hit rate isn't even league average, but the plate discipline bodes well for a good OBP with decent power numbers.
Atlanta Braves
Marcell Ozuna (.185/.298/.235, two extra-base hits)
This is a deep, bad slump from a player who ranked third in the majors in OPS in 2020. It could be something, could be nothing. Indicators like Ozuna's swing rate and launch angle are consistent with 2020. He's simply not barreling up the baseball like he did last year.
It's worth noting that Ozuna sandwiched two so-so seasons with the Cardinals, when he played through some shoulder issues, between a huge 2017 with the Marlins and that big 2020 in Atlanta.
Verdict: Not real. Ozuna was a ripe regression candidate, so this isn't an endorsement he's going to hit like he did in 2020 the rest of the way, but unless there's an injury that explains his drop in exit velocity, I would expect far better returns moving forward.
Baltimore Orioles
Cedric Mullins (.365/.419/.576, 3 HR, 9 2B)
I liked Mullins coming up through the Baltimore system, but more as a player who could perhaps be a 2.0 WAR contributor with his speed, defense and acceptable on-base skills than a star.
Mullins opened 2019 as the starting center fielder, but the Orioles sent him down on April 21 after hitting .094 -- and he didn't reappear until 2020. Give him credit for not letting that bad month get the best of him.
Verdict: Not real. The big surprise is the extra-base power we've seen as Mullins looks to drive the ball rather than just go with a slap-and-dash approach. But is he suddenly a big star? Unlikely. The triple-slash line could drop 100 points across the board and he would still be a nice player to count on for the future.
Boston Red Sox
Garrett Whitlock (0.00 ERA, 11.1 IP, 14 SO, 1 BB)
Chaim Bloom and the Boston front office may have stolen a gem away from the Yankees. Whitlock looked like a potential starter for the Yankees after posting a 1.86 ERA in the minors in 2018, but had Tommy John surgery in 2019. The Yankees tried to slip him through the Rule 5 draft, but the Red Sox took him and he has looked terrific out of the bullpen with a 95-mph fastball and excellent changeup.
Verdict: Real. Yes, it's only a few innings, but he was a legit prospect before surgery. The long-term question is whether the Red Sox will eventually try him as a starter.
Chicago Cubs
Kyle Hendricks (1-2, 5.68 ERA, 7 HR in 19 IP)
Hendricks allowed four home runs in the first inning of one disastrous outing against the Braves, and one bad start like that can ruin a pitcher's ERA for a couple months. So you don't want to overreact -- although when a pitcher averages 86 mph with his fastball, the margin for error is much smaller.
Verdict: Not real. His track record is too good for too long to believe the league has suddenly figured him out. Hendricks has also historically been much better in the second half. No worries ... yet.
Chicago White Sox
Yermin Mercedes (.414/.461/.657, 4 HR)
There is some real ability here, especially in his bat-to-ball skills. He has crushed fastballs in particular so far. His minor league numbers also suggest he can hit. On the other hand, his hard-hit rate is in just the 24th percentile and his chase rate is high at 37%. His expected batting average is .327, not .414.
Verdict: Not real. It wouldn't surprise me if he holds the DH job all season, but I'd probably take the under on a .300 batting average.
Cincinnati Reds
Tyler Naquin (.263/.348/.596, 6 HR, 19 RBI)
Cleveland's first-round pick in 2012, Naquin finished third in the rookie of the year voting in 2016, but battled injuries and inconsistency in ensuing years and Cleveland non-tendered him after 2020. He's crushed it so far in a platoon role, with a 99th percentile ranking in average exit velocity. Two of his home runs have been huge blasts of 454 feet.
Verdict: Real? I mean, let's not go overboard here. Naquin has flashed some big exit velocity in the past and he's changed his setup a bit this year, much quieter as the pitcher delivers with his barrel more upright. It could be a real fix that has helped him out. Plate discipline will never be a strength, but after a miserable 40-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2020, he's at a more manageable 16-to-7 ratio in 2021.
Cleveland Indians
Zach Plesac (1-3, 5.81 ERA, 18 SO in 26.1 IP)
A popular breakout pick after a 2.28 ERA in eight starts in 2020, it's hard to get a read on Plesac. He had two bad starts against the White Sox and two good starts against the awful Tigers, and then split the difference with a solid outing against the Twins on Monday. He has remained a strike-throwing machine with just three walks, but the strikeout rate is marginal by today's standards.
Verdict: Real. He's better than a 5.81 ERA, but I think some of the big expectations were a little premature, based on last year's small sample size. He hasn't kept up the soft contact rate from 2020 and since his fastball sits at 92-93, he'll probably never be a big strikeout guy.
Colorado Rockies
Charlie Blackmon (.148/.278/.262, 1 HR)
Blackmon's lowest average in the past five seasons was .291 in 2018, so we wouldn't expect the four-time All-Star to suddenly fall off a cliff even if he does turn 35 on July 1. It doesn't help that seven of the 19 games he's played have been against the Dodgers (and he went 2-for-20 against them).
Verdict: Real. I want to say not real because he's been such a good hitter for a long time, but there were some warning signs last year with declines in hard-hit rate and swing-and-miss rate, plus the obvious loss of speed and athleticism in the outfield. He's better than .148 and has hit into some bad luck early on, but he may be more .248 than .300 these days.
Detroit Tigers
Matthew Boyd (2-2, 1.82 ERA, 22 SO, 1 HR in 34.2 IP)
That stat line is about the opposite of everything Boyd has done in his career. In 2019, he fanned 238 batters in 185.1 innings, but allowed a league-worst 39 home runs. The home runs were an even bigger issue in 2020, when he allowed 15 in 60.1 innings, leading to a 6.71 ERA. Now he's not allowing home runs OR striking out nearly as many batters.
Verdict: Not real. His pitch selection, movement and velocity are all in line with previous seasons, so I don't see a pitcher who has remade himself here. Maybe there's something else going on if you dig deeper. Still, if he can limit the home runs even a little, he should be much better than he was in 2020.
Houston Astros
Jose Altuve (.347/.400/.469, 1 HR)
It's a little odd to point out that a three-time batting champ and career .300 hitter is hitting .347, but Altuve was so lost at the plate a season ago that nobody really knew what to expect in 2021. He hasn't knocked many over the fence, but he's actually hitting the ball harder, pulling it more and posting a career-best line-drive rate.
Verdict: Real. He's striking out less and walking more. It's possible he has sacrificed some home run power for a more line-drive approach, and then maybe plans to adapt as the season progresses.
Kansas City Royals
Danny Duffy (3-1, 0.39 ERA, 23 IP, 27 SO)
Can you believe this is Duffy's 11th season with the Royals? It seems like yesterday he was just a rookie with a blazing fastball and big potential. Throughout his career, he's looked great at times and frustrated at others and his ERA over the past three seasons has been about the league average. There used to be a theory about left-handers developing later. He wouldn't be the first lefty to suddenly peak at 32.
Verdict: Not real. Duffy and Salvador Perez are the two players left from the 2015 World Series champs (Greg Holland and Wade Davis left and returned) and leading the way for the surprising Royals. It's been a fun start. Duffy's expected batting average allowed (.260) and slugging (.458) based on quality of contact are much lower than his actual totals (.212 and .259). However, the analysis says he's had some good fortune so far.
Los Angeles Angels
Jared Walsh (.319/.395/.556, 4 HR, 16 RBI)
Mike Trout is hitting .426 and Shohei Ohtani has crushed seven home runs, but we thought those two would be great -- especially after the way Ohtani looked in spring training. Walsh hit .337 with nine home runs and 26 RBIs last September in his first extended playing time in the majors, but was it for real?
Verdict: Real. No doubt about this one. Walsh may be a late bloomer, but consider his background. He was a two-way player at Georgia, not drafted until the 39th round. He had success in the minors, although the Angels dabbled with him as a two-way player in 2019 even after he hit .325 with 36 home runs at Triple-A Salt Lake (he even pitched in five games for the Angels that year). Anyway, he can hit. If you're in a fantasy league, pick him up.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Kenley Jansen (0-1, 2.61 ERA, 10.1 IP, 3 H)
Jansen has a low ERA, .094 batting average allowed and even hit 97 mph in one outing, his fastest pitch since 2017 (although is average fastball/cutter velocity remains 91-92). On the other hand, he's walked eight batters, blown one of his six save opportunities and then lost an extra-inning game on Monday on a two-run home run. Dave Roberts is also reluctant to use him on consecutive days (Jansen has done that just once), which is one reason the Dodgers blew the big lead on Sunday to the Padres.
Verdict: Umm ... well, this is a weird situation for the Dodgers. The numbers are pretty good, but giving it up every third or fourth outing doesn't really work for a closer. What will the Dodgers do? Jansen may keep the closer role all season, but that doesn't mean he'll be closing in October.
Miami Marlins
Jazz Chisholm (.279/.367/.544, 4 HR, 6 SB)
From the hair to the cleats to the excitement and energy, Chisholm has been one of the best stories of April. Given that he hit .220 in the minors in 2019 and struggled to a .161 mark in 21 games with the Marlins in 2020, this level of play is completely unexpected, even given the tools that scouts have long loved. There is still a lot of swing and miss in his game, but he's not a wild hacker in the mode of, say, Javier Baez. The walk rate dropped and the strikeout rate increased over the past 10 days, however, so let's see how he adjusts.
Verdict: Not real. Chisholm is still just 23 and I think his future is bright. There is 30-30 potential here and he may post this stat line down the road, but not in 2021 .The strikeouts will eventually eat into that batting average as the season progresses.
Milwaukee Brewers
Freddy Peralta (2-0, 2.45 ERA, 22 IP, 38 SO)
Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are the real deal, so let's focus on Peralta, who is averaging 15.5 K's per nine so far. OK, three of his four starts have come against the Cubs and he allowed three runs in 15 innings against them, plus he's not exactly Mr. Efficiency on the mound ... but did we mention that strikeout rate?
Verdict: Real. This IS a different Peralta. The pitcher nicknamed Fastball Freddy because he threw so many fastballs is throwing more breaking balls than ever -- primarily a new slider that he unveiled last year (but rarely threw), while mostly ditching his curveball. Batters are hitting .121 against the slider so far.
Minnesota Twins
Kenta Maeda (1-1, 6.11 ERA, 28 H in 17.2 IP)
The Twins are off to a terrible start and the 2020 Cy Young runner-up has struggled through his first four starts -- even more surprising because he was locked in during spring training (one run in 18.1 innings). After ranking in the 98th percentile in hard-hit rate in 2020 (lots of soft contact, in other words), he's at the 28th percentile so far -- thus leading to a .354 average allowed.
Verdict: Not real. Maeda has never been below the 75th percentile in hard-hit rate, so this should self-correct in time. It looks like he's been hanging some sliders (.382 average, three of his four home runs).
New York Mets
Francisco Lindor (.210/.324/.274, 1 HR)
It's been a slow start at the plate for Lindor, with just one home run, one double and no stolen bases. Can't handle New York? Pressure of the big contract? Or ... could it just be a small sample size blip?
Verdict: Not real. He's actually walking, his contact rate is superb and his hard-hit rate is right at his career norms. He's just not finding holes or launching balls in the air. The Mets have had a tough start with rainouts, one snow cancellation, cold weather and scheduled days off. Lindor will be fine.
New York Yankees
Gleyber Torres (.208/.315/.234, 0 HR)
I'm much more concerned about Torres than Lindor. While his plate discipline has been fine -- the lowest chase rate of his career -- it's not translating into results. Going back to his disappointing 2020, he's now played 63 games with three home runs and just 10 doubles. Something is wrong. Even when he had his big season in 2019, his hard-hit rate wasn't off the charts (33rd percentile).
Verdict: Real. I just don't see any information in the metrics that suggest he's suddenly going to start again. Obviously, he's only 24 years old and he hit 38 home runs two years ago, so it's way too early to write him off. But if we didn't know his background, right now we'd say he looks like a utility infielder.
Oakland Athletics
Jed Lowrie (.278/.345/.468, 3 HR, 17 RBI)
The surprise here isn't so much that Lowrie is putting up good numbers, but that he's doing it after missing almost all of the past two seasons with injuries while with the Mets. You wouldn't expect a 37-year-old player to produce after missing two seasons, but all the underlying metrics are positive: low chase rate, low whiff rate, above-average hard-hit rate. In fact, his expected batting average (.326) and slugging (.600) are higher than his actual numbers.
Verdict: Real. The only issue is staying healthy.
Philadelphia Phillies
Alec Bohm (.205/.250/.308, 2 HR)
After hitting .338 in 44 games and finishing second in the rookie of the year voting in 2020, the Phillies penciled Bohm into the middle of their lineup and expected big numbers. The disappointing aspect to his start has been a strikeout rate that was in the 64th percentile last year has dropped to the 32nd percentile this year. He's struggled against fastballs, hitting .157.
Verdict: Not real. Everyone believes in the bat, he was a first-round pick and top prospect and the underlying numbers like exit velocity and chase rate are solid. He should be fine.
Pittsburgh Pirates
JT Brubaker (2-1, 2.01 ERA, 22.1 IP, 23 SO)
A sixth-round pick in 2015 out of the University of Akron, Brubaker progressed slowly through the minors, where he looked like a potential rotation depth type of starter. He reached the majors in 2020, did OK in nine starts and has looked good so far, although the Pirates have kept him on a low pitch count (high of 83). There's nothing fancy in his arsenal, but he throws strikes while mixing in a four-seamer, two-seamer and slider, plus an occasional high-spin curveball that has been an excellent pitch.
Verdict: Real. Not a future ace or anything, but I think there's solid mid-rotation potential here if he proves durable -- exactly the kind of starter a rebuilding team needs to find.
San Diego Padres
Joe Musgrove (2-2, 1.55 ERA, 41 SO in 29 IP)
Musgrove was the third starter the Padres acquired in the offseason, but has been their best starter so far, including pitching the first no-hitter in Padres history. The strikeout rate is phenomenal and he's walked just five batters. As has been well documented, Musgrove is throwing his cutter more than ever -- 24% of the time compared to 6% in 2020, and his slider (.057) and curveball (.095) have been nearly unhittable.
Verdict: Real. It wouldn't be a surprise if Musgrove ultimately starts the wild-card game or the first game of the division series (I mean, assuming the Padres beat out the Giants for the NL West title).
San Francisco Giants
Buster Posey (.327/.397/.654, 5 HR)
After sitting out 2020 and producing an 83 OPS+ in 2019, let's be honest: Expectations were not high for a 34-year-old catcher. He's hitting the ball with his best authority since 2018, and while his contact rate isn't quite as elite as it once was, it's still well above average. Maybe the year off has rejuvenated him -- along with playing for a team that has thus far exceeded expectations.
Verdict: Real. Maybe I'm analyzing with my heart, because I also think Posey needs another great season to secure his Hall of Fame credentials. It would be nice if he does it.
Seattle Mariners
Ty France (.325/.412/.530, 3 HR, 8 2B)
Hey, in my bold predictions for 2021, I picked France to win the batting title, so I'm not surprised here. He can hit, with a swing and launch angle more geared for base hits and doubles in the gap than over-the-fence power. All his value is in his bat, as he has no speed and his appearances in the field have been shaky.
Verdict: Real. Just stick at DH for the next half-decade and be happy.
St. Louis Cardinals
Yadier Molina (.323/.366/.631, 5 HR)
It's like we're suddenly back in 2012 when Posey finished first in the MVP voting and Molina finished fourth. Posey's start is a little easier to understand: Time off, he's had injuries, the Giants moved their fences in since he last played. Molina's OPS+, however, has been below average three of the past four season and he's already exceeded his 2020 home run total.
Verdict: Not real. In the Statcast era, Molina's best barrel rate has been 5.9%. He's at 13.7% in 2021. It just doesn't line up with his history. This feels like a classic hot streak.
Tampa Bay Rays
Randy Arozarena (.301/.356/.446, 3 HR)
I wanted to highlight Arozarena's start because on the surface it looks good with a .300 average, some home runs and high exit velocity. Now the red flags: His expected batting average is .209, he's in the fourth percentile in swing-and-miss rate and he's been pounding the ball into the ground. His BABIP is .446, so some of those grounders are sneaking through, but the strikeouts are a concern.
Verdict: Real ... or not. When Arozarena locked in the past postseason, his swing-and-miss rate was 30%. He's at 40% now. I've seen suggestions that's become too homer-happy -- but, heck, everybody is homer-happy these days. Likely scenario: the batting average drops as the BABIP falls, but the power numbers increase as he starts getting the ball back in the air.
Texas Rangers
Adolis Garcia (.269/.309/.615, 5 HR)
Garcia didn't even make the Opening Day roster, but injuries to Khris Davis and Willie Calhoun and Leody Taveras' offensive struggles have opened up playing time and the 28-year-old Cuban has hit five home runs in 13 games.
Verdict: Not real. Oh, the power is real. He hit 32 home runs for Triple-A Memphis in 2019, but the approach is, umm, unrefined. He had 159 strikeouts and 22 walks that season for Memphis while hitting .253. He could hit 30 home runs in the majors, but with a .225 average and .275 OBP.
Toronto Blue Jays
Steven Matz (4-0, 2.31 ERA, 23.1 IP, 25 SO)
Matz was a classic change-of-scenery guy after going 0-5 with a 9.68 ERA for the Mets last season. But his last ERA+ better than league average was 2016, so at best the Blue Jays were hoping for a league-average starter -- not somebody doing this.
Verdict: Not real ... for now. I'm not quite ready to jump all in just yet after four starts. Matz has always had good stuff, but he has served up too many home runs (1.7 per nine innings from 2017-2020). He's allowed just two so far.
Washington Nationals
Patrick Corbin (0-3, 10.47 ERA, 14 SO in 16.1 IP)
We could have picked Josh Bell here as well (.119, 1 HR), but the Nationals are built around their big three and Stephen Strasburg is hurt and Corbin's ERA is in double digits. Corbin also struggled last year when he allowed 85 hits in 65.2 innings and while the defense doesn't help, the walk and strikeout numbers are not good. His strikeout rate has dropped from 30.8% to 28.5% to 20.3% to 17.1% since 2018.
Verdict: Real. He's not this bad, but the trend line is disturbing. Note that his average launch angle allowed has increased from 8.4 degrees in 2019 to 16.9 in 2021. The command, stuff and velocity are all down from the World Series year as well.