OK, this is a little awkward. It's a bit strange to be writing about offense when the major league-wide batting average is .233. That would be the lowest mark since ... well, forever. Lower than 1968, the infamous Year of the Pitcher, which led to lowering the mound and shrinking the strike zone for 1969. Lower than any season of the dead-ball era. Lower than last season's .245 average, which was the lowest since 1972.
Take this past Sunday. There were 15 games played. Four of them ended in shutouts, including two 1-0 games. There was a 2-1 game at Coors Field. Seventeen teams scored two or fewer runs. Overall, teams hit .195 and averaged 3.0 runs per game, with hitters striking out in 26% of their plate appearances.
There is still plenty of power to go around, although home runs are so far down from the record-setting rates of 2019 and 2020 and in line with 2018. Because of that high rate of home runs, runs per game, while lower than any season since 2015, remain within historical norms at 4.33. That is a little higher than the 4.25 average from 2010 to 2015, but below the 4.61 average from 2016 to 2020.
While it's a little too early to make rash judgments on individual player performance, we can still have some fun assessing what we've seen from various lineups around the majors so far. The New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets - three of the better lineups in 2020 - currently rank in the bottom seven in runs per game. Is that going to last all season? Unlikely, but the Yankees' early struggles have put them in an early hole. (All stats through Monday.)
The Big Six: Scariest lineups so far
In order of runs per game, we get the Reds (6.07), Red Sox (5.65), Dodgers (5.47), Angels (5.36), Cardinals (5.19) and Braves (5.06), the six teams averaging five runs per game. Let's compare their current ranking to Bradford Doolittle's preseason projections:
1. Cincinnati Reds (18th): Four early double-digit blowout wins have bolstered the early numbers, but they also lead the majors in a couple Statcast categories, barrel percentage and expected slugging percentage. They also lead in wOBA on contact, so the early offense is legit. There are two big surprises here -- Tyler Naquin with six home runs and Tucker Barnhart hitting .382 -- plus, Joey Votto is showing some signs that a revamped swing may help him. I'm not buying just yet, but maybe there's top-10 potential here.
2. Boston Red Sox (8th): The big positive is J.D. Martinez is raking (.383/.439/.800, six home runs) after struggling mightily in 2020. With Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and Alex Verdugo, the Red Sox already had a moderately high floor. Martinez gives them a chance to have a great offense. The jury remains out on Franchy Cordero and Bobby Dalbec.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (1st): No surprises here, even though Cody Bellinger has played just four games. Max Muncy looks locked in again after hitting .192 a season ago. Justin Turner is red hot, and Mookie Betts and Corey Seager, of course, are potential MVP candidates. Even with pitchers hitting, the Dodgers may still lead the majors in runs scored -- they did that last season with the DH, but the last National League team do that in a non-DH season was the 1990 Mets.
4. Los Angeles Angels (6th): Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon are obviously a great starting point (although Rendon is currently on the injured list). Now add in a scorching Shohei Ohtani and a breakout Jared Walsh, and those four can carry a lineup that is otherwise suspect. Joe Maddon's big dilemma as the season unfolds: How many at-bats does he give Albert Pujols if Pujols remains unproductive?
5. St. Louis Cardinals (19th): A couple of big games against the Nationals -- 14 runs in that Stephen Strasburg start last week and 12 runs on Joe Ross' start on Monday -- have helped the runs per game figure even though the Cardinals are hitting just .228. After ranking last in the majors in home run rate in 2020 (2.5%) and 24th in 2019 (3.4%), they are the surprise early leaders in 2021 (4.1%, tied for first with four other teams), with 25 home runs in their first 16 games. The long-term key remains what they will get from the mix-and-match outfield. I need more time before believing this is a top-10 lineup.
6. Atlanta Braves (10th): Thank you, Ronald Acuna Jr. His blazing start has carried a lineup that has seen Ozzie Albies (.157, 2 HR), Dansby Swanson (.203, 1 HR), Austin Riley (.213, 0 HR) and Marcell Ozuna (.230, 1 HR) all start slow. They finished second behind the Dodgers in runs in 2020, but were a strong regression candidate given the monster seasons from Freeman and Ozuna. The question here is what happens when Acuna slows down, but they do have power, and that's the name of the game in 2021.
When I studied lineups at a similar stage of the season in 2019, I looked back at the 2014-2018 seasons. Using the three top run-scoring offenses in each league over those five seasons, I found that only three of the 30 hot lineups improved the rest of the season, with an average drop of 0.58 runs by the end of season from their end-of-April average. In 2019, the hot lineup was the Mariners, who roared out of the game with a 13-2 start and had homered in 20 straight games to start the season at the time of the article. They had averaged 6.84 runs per game at that point; they finished at 4.68 runs per game.
The lineup that hasn't been scary but should be scary: New York Mets
It's been an odd start of the Mets' season due to a variety of factors. Their opening series against the Nationals was cancelled due to COVID-19. They then played four days in a row, but a couple of rainouts/snowouts, plus some off days, means they haven't played three days in a row since. Throw in a bunch of games in cold weather, plus they faced Aaron Nola twice, Zack Wheeler and German Marquez and they hit .246/.334/.353 with just six home runs in their first 11 games. Hard to get in any kind of rhythm.
Mets fans will point out they're also hitting just .194 with runners in scoring position, an issue that plagued them in 2020 when they underperformed their base stats. I'm not worried. Brad's lineup projection rated the Mets second best in the majors, with a combination of on-base ability and power. Francisco Lindor hasn't homered and is hitting under .200. Michael Conforto hasn't homered, and Jeff McNeil is hitting .176. They'll get going.
Wait until they get everyone in there at once lineup: Toronto Blue Jays
Fifth on Brad's preseason list, the Jays have averaged just 4.13 runs per game, hitting a lackluster .230/.298/.375. George Springer has yet to play, however, due to a quad injury, and Teoscar Hernandez has missed more than a week after a positive COVID test. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is off to a terrific start at .389 with four home runs and a .507 OBP. One trend to note. The Blue Jays are 27th in the majors in walk rate. Hernandez had 14 strikeouts and no walks in seven games, so we have to see if his 2020 breakout was legit. Bo Bichette has 17 K's and three walks, Rowdy Tellez, 11 and one. Marcus Semien has 19 strikeouts in 16 games. They did face Gerrit Cole twice already, but no other projected dominant starters, so it's not a case of facing a lot of super-tough pitching. Still, let's see what happens when they get Springer and Hernandez back.
Lineup that maybe everyone overrated: San Diego Padres
The pitching has carried the Padres so far as they're averaging just 3.89 runs per game. Brad rated them seventh preseason, citing their overall depth and versatility as a big strength, "on top of a foundation that begins with Fernando Tatis Jr." Tatis missed 10 days with his shoulder injury and is 4-for-34 to start the season. When he returned for the Dodgers series, he had altered the finish on his swing, going with a two-handed finish instead of his usual one hand. Aside from Tatis, Tommy Pham has yet to get going (one extra-base hit in 52 at-bats), and they haven't received anything from their catchers (projected starter Austin Nola has yet to play because of a broken finger).
OK, enough with the negative. Here are two reasons to believe the Padres' lineup will be just fine: They have the best walk rate in the majors (just ahead of the Dodgers) and the second-lowest strikeout rate. That's a beautiful combination of plate discipline and contact ability. Also, Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers, the big surprises of 2020, are off to good starts. Still, this looked like a potentially great lineup in large part due to Tatis. He's the key.
Least scary lineup so far: San Francisco Giants
Our latest reminder that baseball makes no sense. The Giants, after years of bad offense (even park-adjusted), suddenly had an excellent lineup in 2020 after the right-field fence was moved in at Oracle Park. They were next-to-last in the NL in runs 2019 (4.19 per game), but then jumped to fifth in 2020 (4.98 per game), although they missed the expanded postseason because the pitching was bad. Now they're last in the majors at 3.19 runs per game, yet are over .500 because the pitching has been phenomenal.
The concern here is they had the oldest group of position players in the majors in 2020 and are even older in 2021, as they have the same core of veterans. Seven of the eight players with the most plate appearances are 30 or older, with Austin Slater, the kid in the group, at 28. Mike Yastrzemski (.968 OPS in 2020) and Alex Dickerson (.947) are off to slow starts after raking last season.
Maybe even less scary than the Giants: Chicago Cubs
Then we have the Cubs, who are averaging 3.40 runs per game -- more than the Giants! -- but are hitting a woeful .192 while ranking 28th in the majors in strikeout rate. Jesse Rogers has the inside scoop on the Cubs' woes, including their struggles against fastballs. They're hitting .205 against fastballs and .106 against fastballs of 95 mph or more -- compared to the overall MLB average of .213. "It's not the lack of bat speed," one scout told Jesse. "These guys all have awesome bat speed. It's mental."
Javier Baez has run into four home runs, but otherwise looks completely lost, with 27 strikeouts against just one walk. Back in 2018, when he finished second in the MVP vote, his contact rate when chasing out of the strike zone was still 50%. Now it's at 33%, and he has swung-and-missed on more than 50% of his swings. He's not reaching pitches he once did. It's been a team effort of futility with a .137 average with runners in scoring position and only Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras off to good starts. Can they turn it around? Brad had the Cubs 13th in his preseason rankings, so a middle-of-the-pack offense. Look, they have power (tied for first in home run rate), but the strikeouts and situational hitting are clear issues.
Finally ... what's going on with the Yankees?
Five notes on the Yankees:
1. We mentioned the Cubs' problems with fastballs. The Yankees have the same problem, hitting .204 against all fastballs and .107 against 95-plus.
2. The Yankees head into Tuesday with a .334 wOBA on contact -- worst in the majors.
3. They're hitting .210 with a .346 slugging percentage, but with expected batting average and slugging marks of .244 and .418. Still not great, but it appears there has been some bad luck on balls in play.
4. Brian Cashman on Monday: "Obviously we're not firing on all cylinders. ... So if you had a chance to catch us right now, you're catching us at the right time."
5. FanGraphs projects the Yankees to average 5.49 runs per game the rest of the way -- best in the majors.
There are too many players with a track record here to be overly worried. "It's 15 games," Cashman said. "It's 15 games I'd like to forget." OK, maybe they won't hit 306 home runs like they did in 2019, but for now you have to expect a turnaround to begin any game.