The calendar says the Major League Baseball offseason is just about over, but the calendar is telling us an incomplete story. What we have are questions, many questions. Will spring training really start this month? Should it? When are the rest of the free agents going to sign? What, exactly, are the rules going to be? Monday's MLBPA rejection of MLB's proposal to delay the 2021 season suggests that structurally, we're looking at a renewal of 2019 baseball, at least at the big league level, but is that really going to happen? Universal DH? Roster sizes? Length of the schedule?
Within this miasma of uncertainty we begin the process of making an appraisal of the work teams have done since the Los Angeles Dodgers ended their World Series title drought on Oct. 27. We're going to look at how each team's offensive attack looks, right now, on paper. The "right now" aspect is important to keep in mind because the numbers will change.
Nelson Cruz went off the board late Tuesday, but premium bats remain, such as that of Marcell Ozuna, whose market is highly affected by the limbo over the designated hitter question. Also, because the free-agent market has only recently begun flowing, it's also possible that another Nolan Arenado-level trade surprise lies waiting to be sprung. So this is both a snapshot of how the offenses across baseball currently stack up and a kind of wake-up call for some clubs eyeing the good bats still available.
Now on to our rankings of MLB's offenses, as they stand today:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
1. Mookie Betts (R)
2. Corey Seager (L)
3. Max Muncy (L)
4. Cody Bellinger (L)
5. Will Smith (R)
6. A.J. Pollock (R)
7. Chris Taylor (R)
8. Edwin Ríos (L)
9. Pitcher (--)
Neutral runs: 840 | Lineup wins added: 9.2 | Best trait: Star power | Worst trait: Strikeouts
It's widely assumed that Justin Turner will re-up with the Dodgers eventually, if and when it becomes certain to his representatives that the contract length he desires is not there to be had. Turner will improve the Dodgers' outlook because he's really good. But there is no upward mobility to be found for this ridiculously good and talented offense. Even the worst trait of this club isn't anything close to a weakness. While L.A's .244 projected average ranks just 21st, that's more an aesthetic choice by the front office than it is a red flag. Few clubs can match the core of the Dodgers' offense, led by in-their-prime superstars Betts, Seager and Bellinger.
2. New York Mets
1. Francisco Lindor (B)
2. Jeff McNeil (L)
3. Michael Conforto (L)
4. Pete Alonso (R)
5. Dominic Smith (L)
6. Brandon Nimmo (L)
7. J.D. Davis (R)
8. James McCann (B)
9. Pitcher (--)
Neutral runs: 832 | Lineup wins added: 8.5 | Best trait: Lineup depth | Worst trait: Bench depth
Lineup depth, in my conception, doesn't refer to how many good hitters a team has, but how few soft spots there are in a club's everyday batting order. When the Mets go all-in with an offensive lineup, they will feature an inordinate number of big sticks and Luis Rojas' biggest problem will be in what order to deploy them.
However, there is more to winning games than bashing. As the manager in Bull Durham said, you also have to throw the ball and catch the ball. The quality of bats behind the Mets' base lineup drops off and because New York figures to have more trouble preventing runs than scoring them, Rojas might have to choose defense on some days. Still, the Mets' offense has been really good for the past couple of years, a fact somewhat obscured by the effects of playing in Citi Field, and adding Lindor to the mix sure doesn't hurt the quality of attack.
3. Houston Astros
1. Jose Altuve (R)
2. Alex Bregman (R)
3. Michael Brantley (L)
4. Yordan Alvarez (L)
5. Carlos Correa (R)
6. Kyle Tucker (L)
7. Yuli Gurriel (R)
8. Myles Straw (R)
9. Jason Castro (L)
Neutral runs: 806 | Lineup wins added: 5.1 | Best trait: Making contact | Worst trait: Center field
Even without George Springer, the Astros' offense figures to remain elite and have the same set of strengths. Those strong points include limiting strikeouts and doing damage on contact. While that should remain the case in 2021, those traits will stand out less in the post-Springer attack.
Springer entered the majors with a big swing and accompanying high strikeout totals, but as he's matured, the strikeout rate has gradually dropped, with his 2020 figure coming in at roughly half of what it was during his rookie season in 2014. His departure is a big one. Still, the loss of Springer on offense should be largely mitigated if 2019 rookie standout Alvarez can make a healthy return from the knee trouble that took him out in 2020.
4. New York Yankees
1. DJ LeMahieu (R)
2. Aaron Judge (R)
3. Aaron Hicks (B)
4. Giancarlo Stanton (R)
5. Luke Voit (R)
6. Gleyber Torres (R)
7. Clint Frazier (R)
8. Gio Urshela (R)
9. Gary Sanchez (R)
Neutral runs: 801 | Lineup wins added: 4.7 | Best trait: Getting on base | Worst trait: Uncertainty at catcher
We hate to start off on the Yankees by dumping it all on poor Sanchez, but after an offseason fueled by trade speculation, it's hard not to. Going easy on Sanchez would also be to ignore the fact that he hit .147 last season. Yeah, there are all sorts of caveats that apply to batting average in general and 2020 batting averages in particular, but .147 is .147.
What brightens the spotlight on Sanchez is that the Bombers not only are devoid of offensive holes elsewhere in the lineup, but they have a great deal of quality redundancy built up through the crafty construction of Brian Cashman's roster. Redundancy everywhere, that is, except behind the plate. If Sanchez can at least regress to his career numbers (.236/.320/.502), the Yankees could easily vault to the top of these rankings. Sorry, Gary.
5. Toronto Blue Jays
1. George Springer (R)
2. Marcus Semien (R)
3. Bo Bichette (R)
4. Teoscar Hernandez (R)
5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)
6. Cavan Biggio (L)
7. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)
8. Rowdy Tellez (L)
9. Danny Jansen (R)
Neutral runs: 800 | Lineup wins added: 4.6 | Best trait: Offensive diversity | Worst trait: Uncertain environment
Let's see, you take the Blue Jays, one of 2020's breakout teams, with a young lineup that figured to improve even if the front office didn't add to it, but then the front office went out and signed Springer and Semien, and what do you get? You get a No. 5 ranking among baseball's offenses. Yes, Jays fans, you should be excited.
The diversity I refer to is this: Only two teams project to rank among baseball's top five in all three slash stats. One is the Astros, the other is the Blue Jays. This will be an exciting offense that can win games in any number of ways. What you do worry about, however, is the uncertainty surrounding where the Blue Jays will play this season, and for how long. Anybody out there have park effect numbers for TD Ballpark in Dunedin, Florida?
6. Los Angeles Angels
1. David Fletcher (R)
2. Jared Walsh (L)
3. Mike Trout (R)
4. Anthony Rendon (R)
5. Justin Upton (R)
6. Shohei Ohtani (L)
7. Jo Adell (R)
8. Jose Iglesias (R)
9. Max Stassi (R)
Neutral runs: 795 | Lineup wins added: 4.2 | Best trait: Mike Trout | Worst trait: Weight of history
When you start off building an attack with two MVP-level hitters like Trout and Rendon, you have an elite foundation. The potential to fashion a high-level attack with those two at the center is there, but Joe Maddon will have to deftly juggle his pieces to make that happen.
Maddon has said that Adell might need more minor league seasoning. Perhaps that is the case and it's certainly true that he looked overmatched at times during his 2020 big league debut. Still, the ceiling for this offense might be determined by the ratio of playing time allotted to Adell and Albert Pujols. That's not likely to be a literal, empirical tipping point, but more a symbolic one.
At this point, Pujols' skill set has declined to the point there really isn't a role he excels at, not even, say, DHing against lefties. The emergence of hard-hitting Walsh last season gives Maddon options. If Adell can make the leap, and the Angels can gracefully compartmentalize Pujols' decline, they might justify this lofty forecast.
7. San Diego Padres
1. Trent Grisham (L)
2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)
3. Manny Machado (R)
4. Eric Hosmer (L)
5. Tommy Pham (R)
6. Wil Myers (R)
7. Jake Cronenworth (L)
8. Austin Nola (R)
9. Pitcher (--)
Neutral runs: 778 | Lineup wins added: 3.6 | Best trait: Lots of good players | Worst trait: Not enough spots for all the good players
If we leave Tatis out of the conversation, perhaps the most interesting player on the Padres isn't even listed here: Ha-Seong Kim, a middle infielder signed this offseason who projects as another high-level, well-rounded hitter of everyday quality. Yet without the DH, you have to choose whether to display Kim or Cronenworth, depending on how you parcel out the playing time around the field.
And that's before you even start thinking about how Jayce Tingler might deploy a second super-utility type in recently re-signed Jurickson Profar. And also before you start to consider the inevitable arrival of elite position prospects like shortstop Cal Abrams and catcher Luis Campusano. All of this high-quality depth and versatility is layered on top of a foundation that begins with Tatis -- perhaps the burgeoning best player in the game -- and perennial MVP candidate Machado.
Between Petco Park and Dodger Stadium, the center of the baseball world currently can be found in Southern California.
8. Boston Red Sox
1. Alex Verdugo (L)
2. Xander Bogaerts (R)
3. Rafael Devers (L)
4. J.D. Martinez (R)
5. Christian Vazquez (R)
6. Andrew Benintendi (L)
7. Hunter Renfroe (R)
8. Bobby Dalbec (R)
9. Enrique Hernandez (R)
Neutral runs: 787 | Lineup wins added: 3.4 | Best trait: Longball power | Worst trait: Outfield questions
These ratings are all about offense, so I'm keeping commentary about defense to a minimum. With the Red Sox, it's hard to separate the two because right now, they don't appear to have an everyday center fielder, though their recent starter in that spot, Jackie Bradley Jr., remains on the free-agent market. The configurations that partially fuel Boston's offensive projection might not work particularly well once defense is factored into the mix. Wasn't it just yesterday that Boston had three elite defenders in the outfield, leading them to a World Series crown?
There are some "ifs" you have to ponder about the Boston offense, but the potential is there for the Red Sox to lead the majors in homers. You have power at every spot, including Vazquez behind the plate. The "ifs" include the successful transition of Dalbec to regular status and a hope that Benintendi can halt his head-scratching recent decline. If those things happen, the Red Sox can mash at every spot. In addition to the names you see here, the numbers also include a projection for more than 20 homers from Michael Chavis in a super-utility role.
9. Chicago White Sox
1. Tim Anderson (R)
2. Adam Eaton (L)
3. Yasmani Grandal (B)
4. Jose Abreu (R)
5. Eloy Jimenez (R)
6. Luis Robert (R)
7. Yoan Moncada (B)
8. Andrew Vaughn (R)
9. Nick Madrigal (R)
Neutral runs: 781 | Lineup wins added: 2.9 | Best trait: Getting hits | Worst trait: Overaggression
This is a good place to note that the lineups listed here reflect an anticipated full-season outlook, not Opening Day configurations. For instance, Vaughn might be unlikely to break camp with the White Sox, but he should debut this season and his projections suggest he can hit the ground running. If he does, look out, because if Vaughn transitions successfully to the big leagues, this Chicago offense offers absolutely no escape hatch for opposing pitchers.
What's exciting about this version of the White Sox is not just how good they have the potential to be, but also how dynamic they figure to be while winning games. I've got Chicago projected to finish either first or second in the majors in singles, doubles, triples and batting average. The White Sox also forecast to rank 27th in walks, so that's a lot of balls in play and a lot of excitement on the basepaths for this super-athletic bunch. Still, the collective inability to grind opposing pitchers figures to cause occasional problems for the young Sox and it limits their short-term ceiling.
10. Atlanta Braves
1. Ronald Acuna Jr. (R)
2. Dansby Swanson (R)
3. Freddie Freeman (L)
4. Travis d'Arnaud (R)
5. Ozzie Albies (B)
6. Austin Riley (R)
7. Ender Inciarte (L)
8. Cristian Pache (R)
9. Pitcher (--)
Neutral runs: 765 | Lineup wins added: 2.4 | Best trait: Athleticism | Worst trait: Lack of an Ozuna
Let's frame our Braves commentary around the lingering question of the universal DH. The above Ozuna comment isn't just a weak attempt at being clever, though it's mostly that. But let's remember that a big question mark about Atlanta last year was whether Ozuna could fill the shoes left by the departure of Josh Donaldson, who starred in the middle of the order in 2019. Ozuna did that and more while splitting his time between left field and DH. Now, he dangles on the free-agent market.
The current question about the Braves, even if we consider it in a financial vacuum, is whether they should be aggressive about bringing back Ozuna. Or, failing that, whether they should seek to acquire someone else like Ozuna, a slugger who features a bat-first profile. The answer to that might entirely depend upon whether the NL does or does not have a full-time DH this season.
The configuration noted above, with a starting outfield of Inciarte, Pache and Acuna, is off the charts in terms of athleticism and defense. Would the outfield be better offensively with Ozuna? Sure. But the question really is about whether the Braves would be the best version of themselves with Ozuna, or an Ozuna type, once both sides of the ball are considered. The answer probably depends on what this season's rules finally turn out to be.
11. Washington Nationals
1. Trea Turner (R)
2. Juan Soto (L)
3. Josh Bell (B)
4. Kyle Schwarber (L)
5. Yan Gomes (R)
6. Victor Robles (R)
7. Starlin Castro (R)
8. Carter Kieboom (R)
9. Pitcher (--)
Neutral runs: 763 | Lineup wins added: 2.2 | Best trait: Offensive core | Worst trait: Age uncertainty
The Nationals have followed this script with the highest level of success before. You start with a dynamic foundation, which certainly describes the superstar duo of Soto and Turner. You add a couple of high-ceiling up-and-comers, which the Nats have in Robles and Kieboom. And you surround them with a mix of proverbial solid veterans.
That rough formula paid off for Washington with a World Series title in 2019. This year's version might reflect some of that dynamic, with familiar names like Josh Harrison, Ryan Zimmerman, Alex Avila and Castro around to lead the over-30 brigade. But the ceiling for the 2021 Nationals will depend on a third class of hitter: The in-their-prime power hitter. If Mike Rizzo successfully bought low on Bell and Schwarber, this will be a really good offense.
However, if Rizzo brought in two players whose 2020 performances are reflective of their current levels of talent, Washington will have a tough time keeping up with the potent Mets and Braves in the NL East.
12. Minnesota Twins
1. Max Kepler (L)
2. Jorge Polanco (B)
3. Josh Donaldson (R)
4. Nelson Cruz (R)
5. Miguel Sano (R)
6. Alex Kirilloff (L)
7. Byron Buxton (R)
8. Ryan Jeffers (R)
9. Andrelton Simmons (R)
Neutral runs: 774 | Lineup wins added: 2.2 | Best trait: Getting on base | Worst trait: Subpar team speed
The Twins improved their offensive outlook considerably late Tuesday when they reached an agreement to bring Cruz back as their every-day DH. Ageless Cruz is the poster player for why the DH was invented, a full-time masher who has no business owning a baseball glove (though he does have one).
Even with Cruz back in the fold, the Twins have subtly begun to transition away from the Bomba Squad attack of the past couple of years. With Kirilloff and Simmons now projected as regulars for Minnesota, there will be more emphasis on defense and making contact, which should give Rocco Baldelli a more diverse attack. The addition of Simmons pushes bat-on-ball maestro Luis Arraez into a super-utility role, but he should still get 400-500 plate appearances.
The Minnesota lineup will look a little different this year, but it might be a better one. The return of Cruz nudges the Twins just ahead of the White Sox as preseason favorites in the AL Central.
13. Chicago Cubs
1. Ian Happ (B)
2. Anthony Rizzo (L)
3. Kris Bryant (R)
4. Willson Contreras (R)
5. Javier Baez (R)
6. Joc Pederson (L)
7. Nico Hoerner (R)
8. Jason Heyward (L)
9. Pitcher (--)
Neutral runs: 760 | Lineup wins added: 1.9 | Best trait: Veteran core | Worst trait: Hitting for average
When considering teams in the NL Central, it's best to just view them in comparison with each other because as best we can tell, there is no rule that would allow MLB to leave a division champion out of the playoffs. In that vein, even after a depressing offseason, the Cubs project to have the division's best offense, even after St. Louis' acquisition of Arenado.
All projections this year carry with them a higher level of uncertainty than usual, as we can't really know exactly what to make of 2020. With the Cubs, we have to note that their offense last season was dragged down by way-out-of-character showings from a number of their core players, including Rizzo, Baez, Kyle Schwarber (now gone) and Bryant.
The atypical showings by the returning three stars now mark them as strong bounce-back candidates. Together, they comprise the main reason to hope that the newly trimmed Cubs can remain contenders in a weak division. However, also bear in mind that the wrong kind of regression could also work against Chicago, because its two best hitters in 2020 -- Happ and Heyward -- greatly outstripped their forecasts.
14. Oakland Athletics
1. Ramon Laureano (R)
2. Mark Canha (R)
3. Matt Chapman (R)
4. Matt Olson (L)
5. Sean Murphy (R)
6. Khris Davis (R)
7. Stephen Piscotty (R)
8. Chad Pinder (R)
9. Tony Kemp (L)
Neutral runs: 765 | Lineup wins added: 1.2 | Best trait: Homers | Worst trait: Strikeouts
It has never been easy to be a fan of the Athletics, baseball's vagabond franchise. These days, even when Oakland contends, its fans know the success will be followed by the ongoing cycle of productive, familiar veterans being replaced by more cost-efficient alternatives. But the A's will still be the A's. They'll hit homers, draw walks and strike out a bunch.
While it stinks that Semien is gone, the fact of the matter is that Oakland won the AL West last season even though he had a down season. Good regression from Chapman, Olson, Davis and Laureano can make up for the loss of Semien, Robbie Grossman and Tommy La Stella. Oakland is no stranger to this process of accounting for the loss of a newly enriched free agent.
15. San Francisco Giants
1. Donovan Solano (R)
2. Mike Yastrzemski (L)
3. Alex Dickerson (L)
4. Buster Posey (R)
5. Brandon Belt (L)
6. Brandon Crawford (L)
7. Evan Longoria (R)
8. Mauricio Dubon (R)
9. Pitcher (--)
Neutral runs: 751 | Lineup wins added: 1.0 | Best trait: Contact hitting | Worst trait: Team speed
If these numbers pan out, the Giants could end up as one of those teams with an underrated offense that ends up that way because its proficiency is obscured by a pitcher-friendly ballpark. It won't be as extreme as it has been for the Mets, as San Francisco's outlook is to be more mediocre than excellent at the plate, but that's better than being terrible, which is how it might look based on raw run projections.
The best thing about the Giants' lineup is the collective ability to put the ball in play and hit for average in a ballpark that is suited to that approach. Solano, Wilmer Flores, Dickerson and Yastrzemski all feature this approach, and Dubon has the potential to be another one. They will be bolstered by the return of Posey behind the plate.
These Giants don't figure to have a ton of power relative to the rest of the majors and they probably will finish last in stolen bases. And while contention for the 2021 Giants appears to be a long shot, the offensive attack could turn out to be quietly effective.
16. Philadelphia Phillies
1. Andrew McCutchen (R)
2. Alec Bohm (R)
3. Bryce Harper (L)
4. J.T. Realmuto (R)
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)
6. Didi Gregorius (L)
7. Jean Segura (R)
8. Scott Kingery (R)
9. Pitcher (--)
Neutral runs: 749 | Lineup wins added: 0.8 | Best trait: Drawing walks | Worst trait: Too many holes
The walks thing is probably a lame comment to offer about a club that features stars like Harper and Realmuto, but that is the only major category in which the Phillies project to rank among the top 10.
More germane to the Philly story is the comment on the worst trait. For a club with a high payroll trying to win in a highly competitive division, there are just too many spots at which the Phils rank in the bottom half of the majors. The worst rank is 28th, in center field, where Kingery figures to get the most playing time. Kingery of course was a touted prospect and he could break out, but we've been waiting on that for a while.
A less worrisome rank is the Phillies' No. 16 finish at third base, now the domain of 2020 rookie Bohm. Careers aren't often linear, but his general arrow is pointed upward. However, the Phillies rank 21st at second base (Segura), 16th in left field (McCutchen) and a barely-better-than-average 14th at shortstop (recently re-signed Gregorius). None of those players could be considered on the upswing and on a roster that lacks position-player depth, there are too many of them.
17. Tampa Bay Rays
1. Brett Phillips (L)
2. Brandon Lowe (L)
3. Randy Arozarena (R)
4. Ji-Man Choi (L)
5. Manuel Margot (R)
6. Joey Wendle (L)
7. Willy Adames (R)
8. Kevin Kiermaier (L)
9. Mike Zunino (R)
Neutral runs: 756 | Lineup wins added: 0.4 | Best trait: Depth | Worst trait: Too many strikeouts
Two things about the Rays always need to be considered in pieces like this. First, listing a "base" lineup for Tampa Bay is a little silly. Every day's lineup is carefully tailored for that game's particular set of circumstances. And that lineup will evolve as the game goes along. The other thing about the Rays is to remember that they tend to favor run prevention when making rosters and lineups, and a middle-of-the-pack ranking for them is plenty good.
That said, while the Rays haven't made any splashy additions to the lineup this winter, they could get a very big one during the season, when the game's top prospect, Wander Franco, is expected to reach the majors. We don't know when that will be and I've hedged my bets, giving him 20% of the playing time at both middle-of-the-infield positions for the season. Franco has carried a hit tool of 80 for so long he probably ought to consider that as his uniform number when he does reach the Trop.
18. Cincinnati Reds
1. Nick Senzel (R)
2. Joey Votto (L)
3. Nick Castellanos (R)
4. Eugenio Suarez (B)
5. Mike Moustakas (L)
6. Jesse Winker (L)
7. Jose Garcia (R)
8. Tucker Barnhart (L)
9. Pitcher (--)
Neutral runs: 738 | Lineup wins added: -0.3 | Best trait: Decent depth | Worst trait: Lack of anchor
The Reds have a number of interchangeable parts, which is a form of depth. The main problem with the Reds is now that Votto has become a complementary piece, the attack does not have enough surefire, middle-of-the-lineup production. Votto has faltered only in relation to his younger self. We're not talking about a Pujols situation here. Votto gets on base and adds value. The problem for Cincinnati is what's behind him.
That said, hitters like Castellanos, Winker and Suarez have had big seasons recently, especially with the longball. None of them have been consistent producers, however, and it all leads to a mundane muddle of a projection. Also, if the Reds don't acquire a shortstop with a legit big league bat, then glove-first youngster Garcia becomes one of the biggest lineup holes in the majors.
19. St. Louis Cardinals
1. Tommy Edman (B)
2. Paul Goldschmidt (R)
3. Nolan Arenado (R)
4. Dylan Carlson (B)
5. Paul DeJong (R)
6. Dexter Fowler (B)
7. Yadier Molina (R)
8. Harrison Bader (R)
9. Pitcher (--)
Neutral runs: 733 | Lineup wins added: -0.8 | Best trait: Infield corners | Worst trait: Lack of power
I think my system is underselling the Cardinals' position player outlook, as it's framed in this analysis, for two reasons. First, we're focused on offense and as a group, and St. Louis' position players project as one of the majors' best defensive groups. The choose-for-the-glove preference is not as stark as it is with the Rays, but it's similar, especially when viewed in relation to St. Louis' division opponents.
The second reason I think the system is underselling them is the projection for Arenado. What the system does is what it does for all players. It converts his baseline performance into a neutral ballpark, then at the end converts it back into the ballpark at which he's going to call home that season. For players like Arenado, whose baselines were built in Coors Field, this is misleading. The problem, as has often been noted, is that not only does Coors inflate the offensive numbers of Rockies hitters, but it also deflates their numbers on the road. The best example of this recently was DJ LeMahieu, whose game suffered not at all when he switched from Colorado to the Yankees. So Arenado, I strongly suspect, is going to outproduce the new projection I have for him, which is for a still-good .848 OPS.
All this said, this is a team that could benefit from two unlikely developments. The first is the implementation of the universal DH. The second is that the Redbirds then sign Ozuna or Cruz to fill that slot, providing the additional longball threat St. Louis needs without impacting the defense.
20. Milwaukee Brewers
1. Lorenzo Cain (R)
2. Christian Yelich (L)
3. Keston Hiura (R)
4. Daniel Vogelbach (L)
5. Avisail Garcia (R)
6. Orlando Arcia (R)
7. Omar Narvaez (B)
8. Luis Urias (R)
9. Pitcher (--)
Neutral runs: 718 | Lineup wins added: -2.3 | Best trait: Lorenzo Cain is back | Worst trait: Offense at most of the corners
The "most of" qualifier in the Brewers' worst trait comment reflect that in left field, where Yelich resides, Milwaukee is doing fine. The outlook at the other corners, not so much: first base (No. 25 ranking in projected runs created), third base (24th) and right field (28th).
The strength of the Brewers will continue to be pitching and if Yelich can rebound to MVP form, Milwaukee is as good a pick as any to win the NL Central. If the Brewers do hang in, the upside of having so many glaring holes is that it doesn't take much of an acquisition to upgrade them, so they could become aggressive at the trade deadline.
21. Cleveland Indians
1. Cesar Hernandez (B)
2. Jose Ramirez (B)
3. Eddie Rosario (L)
4. Franmil Reyes (R)
5. Josh Naylor (L)
6. Roberto Perez (R)
7. Andres Gimenez (L)
8. Oscar Mercado (R)
9. Daniel Johnson (L)
Neutral runs: 729 | Lineup wins added: -2.3 | Best trait: Power-speed combination | Worst trait: Holes in the outfield
The Indians are another team that is trying to win with run prevention and they certainly have the pitching to do that. The recent signings of Hernandez and Rosario improve the offensive outlook as well, though there was nowhere to go but up after the team traded Lindor.
Still, this is an athletic group and in Terry Francona, Cleveland has a manager who balances different eras of managerial strategies in that he's analytically savvy, but not afraid to mix in traditional strategies. That's reflected in Cleveland's top-ranked projection sacrifices (perhaps a dubious honor) and No. 3 rank in steals. The Indians do have power in the lineup but there will be low-scoring games when Francona can leverage small ball to get essential tallies.
22. Kansas City Royals
1. Whit Merrifield (R)
2. Adalberto Mondesi (R)
3. Salvador Perez (R)
4. Carlos Santana (B)
5. Jorge Soler (R)
6. Hunter Dozier (R)
7. Franchy Cordero (L)
8. Michael A. Taylor (R)
9. Nicky Lopez (L)
Neutral runs: 718 | Lineup wins added: -3.4 | Best trait: Speed | Worst trait: Plate discipline
The Royals were aggressive early in the offseason and addressed their biggest offensive need with the signing of walk machine Santana. This is a team that is getting better and if there is a corner to be turned this season, from an offense perspective, it seems like it would involve Mondesi doing what he did near the end of last season over a full campaign.
Mondesi's season numbers were wrecked by a terrible start, but over the last month he hit .356 with a 1.075 OPS, six homers, 20 RBIs and 16 steals. No, he's not going put up baseball's first 40-homer, 100-steal season, which is the numbers he'd produce if those September numbers were extrapolated for a full season. But it's the kind of dynamic potential with which Mondesi has always teased us.
Another interesting move for Kansas City was last week's signing of former Oriole Hanser Alberto to a minor league deal. Alberto is a high-average, low-OBP, low-power hitter, the type of which is kind of a uniform in today's game. He's flawed, to be sure, or else Baltimore would not have cast him adrift. Still, I'm enamored of the kind of balance a high-contact guy like this can bring to an otherwise healthy offensive group, and Kansas City is the right environment for a player like that to excel.
23. Miami Marlins
1. Corey Dickerson (L)
2. Starling Marte (R)
3. Jesus Aguilar (R)
4. Brian Anderson (R)
5. Garrett Cooper (R)
6. Miguel Rojas (R)
7. Jon Berti (R)
8. Jorge Alfaro (R)
9. Pitcher (--)
Neutral runs: 706 | Lineup wins added: -3.6 | Best trait: Power | Worst trait: On-base ability
The Marlins might have falsely raised the hopes of their fan base with last season's surprising run to the NLDS. This is not a team that has turned the corner, but the corner is at least in sight. Still, as far as the offense goes, there are few strengths outside of third base (Anderson) and center field (Marte). Miami projects to finish dead last in on-base percentage. The Marlins will need to catch the ball, run into the occasional long ball and hope their good starting pitching can carry them to the next level.
24. Arizona Diamondbacks
1. Kole Calhoun (L)
2. Ketel Marte (B)
3. Christian Walker (R)
4. David Peralta (L)
5. Eduardo Escobar (B)
6. Daulton Varsho (L)
7. Nick Ahmed (R)
8. Carson Kelly (R)
9. Pitcher (--)
Neutral runs: 699 | Lineup wins added: -4.3 | Best trait: Ketel Marte | Worst trait: Lack of power
The Diamondbacks aren't a hopeless case. You can see a world where if all of their regulars at least meet their baseline forecast, and a few of them hit the upper end of their probability range, then they can put up some runs. Still, this team lacks much of a slugging profile, with a No. 24 forecast in homers and 28th in isolated power. They don't get on base or hit for a high enough average to compensate for that. But it's a smart organization that has won before with this level of talent.
25. Texas Rangers
1. Leody Taveras (B)
2. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)
3. Willie Calhoun (L)
4. Joey Gallo (L)
5. Nick Solak (R)
6. Nate Lowe (L)
7. David Dahl (L)
8. Jose Trevino (R)
9. Rougned Odor (L)
Neutral runs: 706 | Lineup wins added: -4.6 | Best trait: Change | Worst trait: Not enough change
Gallo is a good player but I wouldn't want a whole team constructed with players like him and for a few years there, it felt as if every hitter the Rangers ran out there fit that mold. Texas' attack is on the road to diversification, but it's not there yet. Texas actually projects to finish 12th in batting average. But it also projects to finish 26th in strikeouts.
In any event, this should be a more interesting Texas team to watch, especially on the days Odor isn't in the lineup. Lowe has big-time power that he has never had a chance to feature for a full big league season. Kiner-Falefa is a fascinating player who has gradually evolved from a utility player who could catch into a player who has supplanted Elvis Andrus as the Rangers' everyday shortstop. Dahl, inexplicably set free by the hapless Rockies, could prove to be a sleeper breakout candidate in his new environs.
26. Seattle Mariners
1. J.P. Crawford (L)
2. Dylan Moore (R)
3. Kyle Lewis (R)
4. Kyle Seager (L)
5. Mitch Haniger (R)
6. Jose Marmolejos (L)
7. Ty France (R)
8. Evan White (R)
9. Luis Torrens (R)
Neutral runs: 706 | Lineup wins added: -4.7 | Best trait: Anticipation | Worst trait: Strike-zone command
The Mariners should start moving their top prospects into the majors this year, which casts a pleasant kind of uncertainty into their projection. Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell should both see major league action this year, and Julio Rodriguez shouldn't be too far behind them. At some point, they will team with last year's premium rookie, Lewis, to give Seattle one of baseball's most exciting outfields.
For this group, there figures to be a lot of feast and famine. There is a good amount of power between Lewis, White and Seager, among others, but they are all kind of on the high-strikeout, not-as-high-walk, spectrum. The M's will have to balance that out eventually. For now, the important thing is that Seattle should be about to emerge from its rebuild.
27. Pittsburgh Pirates
1. Adam Frazier (L)
2. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)
3. Colin Moran (L)
4. Bryan Reynolds (B)
5. Gregory Polanco (L)
6. Anthony Alford (R)
7. Jacob Stallings (R)
8. Erik Gonzalez (R)
9. Pitcher (--)
Neutral runs: 675 | Lineup wins added: -6.9 | Best trait: It's only temporary | Worst trait: It's a long temporary
Pittsburgh is in the early throes of a rebuild, with every movable dollar having been moved, or at least in the process of being moved. The miracle is that even in this stripped-down form, the Pirates don't project to be the worst offensive team in baseball. This will be the first full season for Hayes. Hopefully, Hayes' .376/.442/.682 debut over 95 plate appearances didn't create unnecessarily high expectations for what he'll do this time around. Spoiler: He's not a .376 hitter. But he is a very good-looking young player, with a terrific glove, and he's about the only reason to watch this Pirates offense.
28. Baltimore Orioles
1. Austin Hays (R)
2. DJ Stewart (L)
3. Anthony Santander (B)
4. Trey Mancini (R)
5. Chance Sisco (L)
6. Ryan Mountcastle (R)
7. Freddy Galvis (B)
8. Rio Ruiz (L)
9. Yolmer Sanchez (B)
Neutral runs: 682 | Lineup wins added: -7.2 | Best trait: It's only temporary | Worst trait: It's a long temporary
Yeah, a little redundant with our trait commentary, but the Orioles are very much in the same boat as the Pirates, albeit a little further down the stream. We should see Adley Rutschman's debut at some point this season and his arrival should serve as the harbinger of the next era of Baltimore baseball. The Orioles will be playing some other young bats worth watching like Ryan Mountcastle and Yusniel Diaz. It'll be a long season but one that offers a modicum of hope that things are going to get better.
29. Detroit Tigers
1. Victor Reyes (L)
2. Robbie Grossman (B)
3. Miguel Cabrera (R)
4. Jeimer Candelario (B)
5. Wilson Ramos (R)
6. Niko Goodrum (B)
7. JaCoby Jones (R)
8. Willi Castro (B)
9. Isaac Paredes (R)
Neutral runs: 672 | Lineup wins added: -8.3 | Best trait: Miggy | Worst trait: Whiffs
The Tigers will struggle to put up runs, even as their overall fortunes should turn for the better thanks to the influx of quality young starting pitching that began last season. Meanwhile, as those hope-boosting arms continue to flow into Detroit, Cabrera's dual marches to 500 homers and 3,000 hits should both be completed this season, at long last, assuming he stays somewhat healthy. That will give everyone a good chance to appreciate a Hall of Fame career.
30. Colorado Rockies
1. Raimel Tapia (L)
2. Brendan Rodgers (R)
3. Charlie Blackmon (L)
4. Trevor Story (R)
5. Ryan McMahon (L)
6. Josh Fuentes (R)
7. Sam Hilliard (L)
8. Elias Diaz (R)
9. Pitcher (--)
Neutral runs: 606 | Lineup wins added: -14.7 | Best trait: Loyal, patient fans | Worst trait: Where do you start?
What can you say, really? Rockies fans attend games at Coors often enough to keep the club in the top half of the NL in attendance, at least in seasons in which fans can go to games. Without Arenado, a bad offense is going to be all but unwatchable, even when Coors Field keeps its raw-run ranking out of the MLB cellar. Make no mistake though: This is baseball's worst offense.