When Nolan Arenado signed his eight-year contract extension with the Colorado Rockies in spring training of 2019, it appeared he would spend the rest of his career in a Rockies uniform. He had stated all along he wanted to play for a consistent playoff contender and the Rockies were coming off back-to-back postseason appearances. "I think the future is much brighter in Colorado than it's been in the past," he said at the time.
Things can change quickly in baseball, however, and Arenado's relationship with the Rockies soon soured. After two bad seasons, with a big league roster lacking depth and a minor league system that ranks as one of the weakest in the sport, as they try to compete in a division with the Dodgers and Padres, the Rockies' immediate future looks a lot more depressing than bright. With Arenado agreeing to waive his no-trade clause, the Rockies traded their franchise icon to the St. Louis Cardinals in a blockbuster deal.
The Cardinals acquire a five-time All-Star and eight-time Gold Glove winner, a superstar in even the narrowest definition. From 2015 to 2019, Arenado hit .300/.362/.575 while averaging 157 games, 40 home runs and 124 RBIs. He finished no lower than eighth in the MVP voting and ranked third behind Mike Trout and Mookie Betts in WAR among position players.
As good as Arenado has been, it's not necessarily a risk-free trade for the Cardinals.
After all, Arenado is entering his age-30 season, an age when you do have to start considering the possibility of decline. Plus, he's leaving the luxurious hitting confines of Coors Field, all while coming off his worst season. These are his career home/away splits:
Home: .322/.376/.609, HR every 15.3 ABs
Away: .263/.322/.471, HR every 20.6 ABs
Those splits appear worrisome, but consider what DJ LeMahieu has done since leaving the Rockies for the Yankees. LeMahieu had a similar large split while with the Rockies (.329 at Coors, .267 on the road), but has been better with the Yankees than he was in Colorado. Some of that is the result of some swing charges he began incorporating at the end of his Rockies career, but while playing in Coors Field obviously helps a hitter, getting away from Coors Field as a home ballpark also helps because it now normalizes your road experience. Arenado's home numbers will likely decline in St. Louis, but his road numbers should increase.
Then there is Arenado's 2020 season. He hit just .253/.303/.434 in 48 games, a 224-point drop in OPS, and his Statcast metrics took some alarming declines from 2019:
Exit velocity: 32nd percentile (54 in 2019)
Hard-hit rate: 26th percentile (40)
xwOBA: 10th percentile (65)
There is an explanation for the drop in production: Arenado injured his shoulder early on and kept playing until finally shutting down with nine games to go. Assuming good health, we should expect him to return to his 2019 metrics. If there is a concern about his future production, it's that Arenado was never at the top of those charts even when healthy. He thrives by hitting the ball in the air and making contact (he was in the 88th percentile in strikeout rate in 2019 and the 99th percentile in 2020).
Of course, there is the possibility that he loses a few home runs, but I don't think his power numbers will crater. Let's do some quick math. From 2015 to 2019, Arenado averaged a home run every 16.7 at-bats on the road. In a typical season of 600 at-bats, that still translates to 36 home runs. I think he'll be fine.
I'm even more optimistic about his defense. I looked at some of the best defensive third basemen through age 29 to see how they aged with the glove -- and it's a good sign that Arenado should keep his defensive value through his age-35 season (the life of the contract). Some notable names, using the total zone figures found at Baseball-Reference.com:
--Brooks Robinson: Averaged 11.0 runs saved per 1,200 innings through age 29, 19.0 from 30 to 35.
--Mike Schmidt: 11.8 runs saved per 1,200 innings through age 29, 6.7 from 30 to 35.
--Buddy Bell: 14.4 to 6.7.
--Scott Rolen: 9.9 per 1,200 innings to 10.5.
--Adrian Beltre: 8.2 to 5.4 (and was even better from 36 to 38).
Two got better; three declined (although still remained above average). Bell was the only one who showed a sudden decline, as his numbers dropped sharply starting at age 33. Still, third base seems to be a position that relies more on the first-step quickness, agility and ability to make all the throws, than on the pure range that affects shortstops and center fielders as they lose speed. Arenado has averaged 10.0 runs saved per 1,200 innings via total zone (and 15.6 via defensive runs saved) and should still have several Gold Gloves in his future.
The Cardinals obviously need Arenado's power after finishing last in the majors in home run rate in 2020. While the Cardinals probably deserve more slack for statistical performance in 2020 than any other team after the COVID-19 outbreak and all the doubleheaders and seven-inning games, they also ranked just 24th in the majors in home run rate in 2019.
The lineup looks like this:
2B Tommy Edman-S
CF Dylan Carlson-S
3B Arenado-R
1B Paul Goldschmidt-R
SS Paul DeJong-R
RF Dexter Fowler-S
LF Tyler O'Neill-R
C Andrew Knizner-R
Bench -- Matt Carpenter, Harrison Bader, Lane Thomas, Edmundo Sosa, Tyler Heineman
That's not a great lineup, but there is some potential if Edman can play like he did as a rookie in 2019, Carlson meets expectations as one of the best prospects in the game and DeJong can hit 30 home runs as he did in 2019. Still, it's a lineup heavily reliant on 30-year-old Arenado and 33-year-old Goldschmidt (and perhaps 38-year-old Yadier Molina, who remains a free agent).
The Cardinals are in an interesting spot. For years, they refused to make a big move, and while they haven't finished below .500 since 2007, they missed the playoffs from 2016 to 2018, the first time they had missed the playoffs three straight seasons since 1997-1999. That led to the Goldschmidt trade for 2020 and they did reach the National League Championship Series.
Most of their "big" moves simply haven't worked out. Fowler signed a five-year, $82.5 million deal in 2017, but he has been below average at the plate. The two-year extension for 2020 and 2021 given to Carpenter after his 36-homer season in 2018 hasn't panned out, as he struggled in both 2019 and 2020. Andrew Miller was supposed to be a big option out of the bullpen, but has a 4.12 ERA in two seasons. They've also had some bad luck -- Carlos Martinez went from two-time All-Star starter to a mop-up reliever with a 9.90 ERA in 2020 and top pitching prospect Alex Reyes has battled injuries.
The good news in a sense is that Fowler, Carpenter, Miller and Martinez can all come off the books after 2021 -- four players making a combined $58.7 million in 2021. The NL Central right now projects as the weakest division in the majors. The Cubs traded their Cy Young runner-up, the Reds are losing Trevor Bauer and have a bad offense (and no shortstop), the Brewers haven't done anything and the Pirates are trying to trade any veteran with a heartbeat. The Cardinals are not a great team, but adding the version of Arenado I think they'll get makes them the division favorite.
As for the Rockies, the biggest fallout is what now happens with Trevor Story. He has finished in the top 12 of the MVP voting the past three seasons and is eligible for free agency after 2021. In theory, this frees up money to sign him to, well, an Arenado-like extension as the new franchise player. But does Story have any desire to sit through three or four years of a rebuild? If they can't sign him before the season starts, does that mean the Rockies trade him as well? Do Rockies fans trust GM Jeff Bridich to guide the franchise through this rebuild? He basically screwed up every move to add major leaguers around Arenado and Story, failed at developing the next group of Rockies prospects and alienated his star player to the point where the two weren't even on speaking terms.
It's a shame, because Rockies fans have done a great job supporting the team -- even during the terrible seasons from 2011 through 2016 they drew well. They topped three million in attendance in 2018 and nearly got there again in 2019 (despite finishing 71-91). Now all the air has been sucked out of the franchise -- even more so if Story is traded.
Even before the Arenado trade, FanGraphs projected the Rockies as the second-worst team in baseball, ahead of only the lowly Pirates. Who is the top prospect in the 2022 draft?