When I was a kid, our elementary school used to have these book fairs, run by Scholastic book publishers. The company set up a display in the lobby outside the library, their various books for sale, and each spring I would spend a dollar or two on the latest edition of "All-Pro Baseball Stars." I guess the book fairs are still around, although the last edition of "All-Pro Baseball Stars" appears to be 1984.
It was a wonderful little paperback, 92 or 96 pages long, with two-page bios of the best players from the previous season, plus some statistics and standings and so on. Bruce Weber was the author, and he began the series in 1976. Before that, there was a similar series simply called "Baseball Stars of 1967" or whatever the year, with Ray Robinson as writer.
Thinking of those books, I got to wondering: Who are the all-pro baseball stars of 2021? Of course, that description doesn't really fit; all-pro is more of a football term (there was also an "All-Pro Football Stars" series). Maybe the idea is simply this: Who are the superstars of 2021? And how many of them are there? And as we begin the season, how many of them will get bumped off the list by the end of the season?
I like the idea of "superstar" as inexact science. You have to earn your way to the superstar description -- and one bad season shouldn't necessarily knock you off. A list of superstars is mostly about the best players in the game, but it goes beyond that, right? Winning matters, maybe popularity counts. It's not just about projecting the best players of 2021 -- which is what our MLB Rank of the top 100 players does -- but it's also not about career value. Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera are not currently superstars.
I concluded -- disagree if you wish -- that there are 24 superstars in the majors in any given season, rationalizing that number this way: If we were to play the ultimate All-Star Game, we'd need 18 position players. Then we'd need three pitchers per team, six in total. That gives us 24 superstars. My list will be position agnostic, however, so if we end up with five shortstops and no catchers, that's OK.
I said inexact science, but I don't want this to be completely subjective, so I came up with a formula to rank the players:
1. Start with three-year total WAR (I used FanGraphs). This is the "earn" way part. One great season might not be enough to crack the top 24.
2. Bonus points for MVP voting results from the previous three seasons, awarded as such:
2020: 5-4-3-2-1
2019: 4-3-2-1
2018: 3-2-1
This gives more credit to recent seasons, so a 2020 MVP season is valued more than a 2018 MVP season.
3. Bonus points for Cy Young voting results from the previous three seasons, awarded as such:
2020: 5-4-3
2019: 4-3-2
2018: 3-2-1
(No double-dipping for pitchers, so they can't get points for finishing high in both Cy Young and MVP voting.)
4. Two points if you were the World Series MVP in any of the three previous seasons. Call it a bonus for clutch performance on the biggest stage.
5. One point if you were an LCS MVP in any of the three previous seasons. Similar idea: Postseason results matter.
6. One point for each World Series champion you played on in the three previous seasons. The goal is to win.
7. One point if you had one of the top five selling jerseys the previous year (in 2020, the top five jerseys belonged to Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto, so they each get an additional point). A way to reward popularity.
Let's take Betts. His three-year WAR is 20.0. He gets four points for finishing second in the 2020 MVP vote and three points for finishing first in 2018. He gets one point each for winning the World Series in 2018 and 2020 and a point for having one of the top five-selling jerseys. Add it up and he finishes with 30.0 points. As it turns out, that's No. 1 on the list (he would be on the cover of "All-Pro Baseball Stars 2021"):
1. Mookie Betts
2. Mike Trout
3. Jacob deGrom
4. Christian Yelich
5. Alex Bregman
6. Jose Ramirez
7. Anthony Rendon
8. Max Scherzer
9. Justin Verlander
10. Cody Bellinger
11. Gerrit Cole
12. Freddie Freeman
13. Trevor Bauer
14. Shane Bieber
15. Manny Machado
16. Marcus Semien
17. Xander Bogaerts
18. Matt Chapman
19. Francisco Lindor
20. Juan Soto
21. DJ LeMahieu
22. Nolan Arenado
23. Trevor Story
24. J.T. Realmuto
Betts over Trout as the biggest superstar in the game makes sense to me. He's close to Trout in total WAR, but the World Series titles and his popularity do make him a bigger star -- even if Trout arguably remains the best player.
Verlander might be a surprise at No. 9. The system doesn't know he's injured for 2021, but that's fine. That's how the system should work. Like I said, you have to play your way off. The shortened 2020 campaign puts less emphasis on the stats from that season and helps Verlander stay on, but that also makes sense. We don't want to give too much or too little credit for what happened in 2020.
You might be asking: Where's Tatis? After all, he ranked No. 8 overall on our MLB Rank top 100 list. I would argue that this is not a flaw in the system. Tatis has yet to play a full season in the majors, so as good as he's been in his limited time, he had played only 143 career games entering 2021 spread out over two seasons. Maybe the system is too tough on young players. I'm good with that.
We can look back to previous years to judge how the system works. Kris Bryant, as an example, ranked third entering 2018. That made sense. He was just one season removed from his 2016 MVP and World Series title and had been very good in 2017. He certainly felt like one of the biggest stars in the game. He played just 102 games in 2018, but still ranked 13th on our list. That's fair. One so-so season shouldn't necessarily knock a player off the list. He did fall off the list entering 2020 despite a solid 2019, however, as his 2016 season fell too far in the rearview mirror.
Similar story with Giancarlo Stanton. He ranked 15th entering 2018 after his MVP season and remained at 17 in 2019, but has fallen off the past two lists after two injury-plagued seasons. You can't really call him a superstar at the moment, even as we dream about his 50-homer potential.
On average, about seven or eight players per season drop off the list. Seven fell off from 2020 to 2021 (the short season made it harder to fall, as with Verlander). Those seven: Judge, Jose Altuve, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, George Springer, Javier Baez and J.D. Martinez. With the exception of Springer, they were all injured or struggled in 2020.
With all that explained, here comes the fun part: Who are the seven players who will join the list in 2021? And if we add seven, we have to subtract seven. My predictions:
Joining the list
1. Ronald Acuna Jr. He came close to making the list anyway, so replacing his partial 111-game rookie season with a full 162-game season in 2021 should easily bump him into the top 24, maybe even the top 10. Subjectively, he would probably already be there after nearly going 40-40 in 2019 (41 home runs, 37 steals) and hitting 14 home runs in just 46 games in 2020. He's still just 23, so it will be interesting to see how his skills coalesce this season. His average dropped from .280 in 2019 to .250, but his OBP actually went up from .365 to .406 (his strikeout rate went up as well).
2. Trea Turner. He was the last position player to miss the list. If he can come close to his 2020 numbers -- .335/.394/.588 -- he'll jump much higher than just the one spot he needs to crack the top 24. Turner's expected batting average in 2020 based on quality of contact was .299, but the improved power feels real and he cut down on his strikeouts, so I see a .300 hitter with 25-homer power here. His great speed and solid defense make him a sleeper MVP candidate if the Nationals contend.
3. Lucas Giolito. His transformation from one of the worst starters in the majors in 2018 (6.13 ERA) to one of the best over the past two seasons has been remarkable, spurred on by shortening his arm action and adding velocity (with much improved command). He held batters to a .184 average in 2020, and if anyone is going to challenge Shane Bieber and Gerrit Cole for Cy Young honors in the American League, Giolito is the best bet.
4. Corey Seager. The Dodgers shortstop was actually on the list entering 2018, but that was the year his season was cut short after 26 games due to Tommy John surgery. Now he'll get to replace his 2018 WAR (0.5) with whatever he does in 2021, and many feel he might have an MVP-type season in him as he heads to free agency. On top of that, he'll keep his bonus points for his 2020 World Series MVP Award and the Dodgers' title -- with an obvious chance to add more postseason points.
5. Walker Buehler. After going 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA in 2019 (5.0 WAR), Buehler pitched just 36 2/3 innings in 2020 before heating up in the postseason and reminding everyone that few starters have the deep arsenal of plus-plus pitches he possesses. There is the potential issue of how many innings the Dodgers will allow their starters, but Buehler pitched 182 in 2019 and I can see him getting to that number again -- with an even higher WAR. Throw in the high potential for postseason glory and I give Buehler the edge here over pitchers such as Jack Flaherty, Zack Wheeler or Aaron Nola (who was on the list in 2019).
6. Rafael Devers. He was a beast in 2019 when he hit .311 with 32 home runs and 54 doubles, so you have to believe he didn't have his career year at age 22. He's in better shape than he was in a disappointing 2020, which will hopefully help his defense at third base. Still, his value is in his bat, but that was a 5.9-WAR season in 2019 and he can do it again.
7. Fernando Tatis Jr. What do we do with Tatis? If he's out just a couple of weeks with his shoulder issue, there is still plenty of season remaining for him to get back on track to superstar status and maybe even compete for MVP honors. If he misses a significant amount of action, however, he simply won't have played enough games over three seasons to crack the top 24 -- no matter his rate of production. If no Tatis, some other candidates here include White Sox teammates Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada, a 50-homer Pete Alonso, a healthy Judge or maybe a deep sleeper like Ozzie Albies or Brandon Lowe.
Falling off the list
1. Justin Verlander. This is an easy call since Verlander will likely miss all of 2021 after making just the one start in 2020. That's the way the system works. One bad season or one injury shouldn't knock a superstar of this caliber off the list. Two seasons, however, will do it.
2. Marcus Semien. He's been on the list the past two seasons, 16th this year and 20th in 2020, mostly on the basis of his outstanding 2019 when he finished third in the MVP voting. Semien regressed to his career norm in 2020, however, and now loses positional value moving to second base for the Blue Jays.
3. Matt Chapman. He was terrific for the A's in 2018 and 2019, with his Gold Glove/power combination. A shoulder injury cut into his 2020 numbers, and the strikeouts are excessive again in the early going. Unless the batting average and OBP bounce back, he looks like a candidate to slide off the list.
4. Max Scherzer. Should you bet against Scherzer? No. But I need a second pitcher to list here since I've added Giolito and Buehler, and Scherzer is vulnerable because he loses his 2018 second-place Cy Young bonus, and his third-place finish in 2019 becomes less valuable. He's 36 and allowed four home runs in his first start of 2021, so that was concerning (although his second start was much better). I wouldn't be surprised if he is again in the Cy Young running, which could make Trevor Bauer or Shane Bieber a drop candidate if either doesn't repeat his Cy Young success.
5. J.T. Realmuto. This isn't a knock against Realmuto's ability as much as it's simply difficult for catchers to remain in the top 24 given their playing time compared with other positions. Realmuto was the last guy on the list this year and 23rd in 2020, so his place near the bottom makes him vulnerable.
6. Nolan Arenado. I think Arenado will be just fine in St. Louis, but his subpar 2020 means he's going to need a really good season to remain in the top 24 -- he has fallen from 11th to 15th to 22nd since 2019. He loses a very good 5.8-WAR season from 2018 that included a third-place MVP finish. Maybe a trip to the postseason will give him a chance at some bonus points.
7. Cody Bellinger. He will still have 7.8 WAR from 2019 on his ledger, but his MVP bonus become less valuable and he'll lose a point for his 2018 NLCS MVP. More importantly, he's already on the injured list with a calf injury, on top of offseason shoulder surgery. Given the inconsistent nature of his career so far, he might be one of those players who bounces on and off the superstar list.
One more note. Conspicuous by his absence is Phillies right fielder Bryce Harper, who is certainly one of the most famous -- and popular -- players in the game, thus his 2020 jersey rank. But is he a superstar on the field? From 2018 to 2020, he hit .257/.388/.509, with 82 home runs and 247 RBIs. He ranks 28th among position players in WAR, 17th in wOBA, tied for 10th in home runs, seventh in RBIs. He hasn't received even a down-ballot MVP vote since 2017. He was 12th on this list entering 2018, a stretch that included his 2015 MVP season his excellent 2017.
So, yes, I think the system fairly believes he's not a superstar. His 2018 season (3.5 WAR) wasn't particularly strong; however, he's off to another .400 OBP season, the Phillies are playing well and it's not inconceivable that he'll have his best season since 2015. Once a superstar ...