The MLB playoff races really seemed to ramp up this weekend. The Phillies swept the Mets. The Blue Jays took three of four from the stumbling Red Sox. The Yankees took three out of four from the contender-now-pretender Mariners. The Braves lost a heartbreaker on Saturday. The Giants just kept winning, beating the Brewers two of three times in Milwaukee.
Let's look at each playoff contender and zero in on some keys as we enter the final stretch of 50 games or so.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco Giants
Keep it going: Hitting home runs
The Giants don't have anybody with 20 home runs, but they lead the National League in them thanks to power production up and down the lineup and a deep bench. Moving in the fences last season has helped, but this is unprecedented territory for the Giants, who haven't ranked higher than sixth in the NL in home runs since 2002.
Needs to get it going: Alex Wood
Really, it's mostly about just maintaining what has worked so far, which is pretty much everything. Wood has a 5.59 ERA over his past four starts and has been hit harder than earlier in the season. He pitched just 48 innings over 2019-20, so as he has passed 100 innings, let's see if he's hitting a wall or not.
Schedule note: From Aug. 16 to Sept. 5, the Giants play 19 consecutive games against playoff contenders -- at home against the Mets, at Oakland, at the Mets, at Atlanta, home against the Brewers and Dodgers. They also have three series in September against the Padres.
Milwaukee Brewers
Keep it going: The Big Three
Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta have continued to dominate, so the big test for manager Craig Counsell down the stretch will be to keep them strong heading into October -- although the Reds are just close enough for now that he can't back off too much. Note that the Brewers have essentially used a de facto six-man rotation all season. Woodruff and Burnes have each made just one start on four days of rest and Peralta just three. If the Reds do inch closer in September, will Counsell rethink his usage patterns?
Needs to get it going: Christian Yelich
We're probably deep enough in the season now to realize Yelich's power just isn't going to be there this year -- no doubt his back issues are affecting his swing. His average exit velocity is down from 93.3 mph in 2019 and 94.0 in 2020 to 90.3. At least he's getting on base with a .380 OBP.
Schedule note: The Brewers have only one series left against the Reds, in late August, making it harder for Cincinnati to make up ground. Milwaukee has 13 games left against the Cardinals and ends the season with a road trip to St. Louis and Dodger Stadium.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Keep it going: Walker Buehler
He's 12-2 with a 2.13 ERA and has moved into Cy Young consideration. Most importantly, he keeps pitching deep into games, at least under the 2021 definition. He has gone at least six innings in all but one of his starts but does so while remaining efficient, reaching 100 pitches just seven times. He has a 1.08 ERA over his past five outings.
Needs to get it going: The entire team in extra innings
The Dodgers are now an incredible 1-12 in extra-inning games, including 11 straight losses. They're one loss away from tying the 1969 Expos for the most such losses in a row in a season -- and the Expos were an expansion team that lost 110 games. This is so absurd, let's see how it happened:
1. April 25: Padres 8, at Dodgers 7 (11)
The Dodgers loaded the bases with one out in the 10th, but out of position players, Dave Roberts had to pinch hit Clayton Kershaw and he struck out. The Padres won it on a Fernando Tatis Jr. steal of third base and sac fly. The Dodgers also blew a 7-1 lead before extra innings.
2. April 26: Reds 5, at Dodgers 3 (10)
Jesse Winker hit a two-run home run off Kenley Jansen.
3. May 1: at Brewers 6, Dodgers 5 (11)
Both teams scored in the 10th, although the Dodgers were again forced to use Kershaw as a pinch hitter and he struck out with two runners on. The Dodgers scored twice in the 11th, but the Brewers responded with three off Alex Vesia and Mitch White.
4. May 4: at Cubs 4, Dodgers 3 (9)
The Dodgers scored twice in the eighth, but Javier Baez tied it with a two-run homer off White. The Cubs won it on a base hit off Garrett Cleavinger.
5. May 5: at Cubs 6, Dodgers 5 (11)
Both teams scored in the 10th, the Dodgers scored in the 11th, but with two outs, Cleavinger allowed an RBI single, a walk and then a game-losing base hit to Anthony Rizzo.
6. May 28: Giants 8, at Dodgers 5 (10)
The Dodgers tied it on Austin Barnes' three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth, but the Giants scored three runs off Jansen in the 10th.
7. July 6: at Marlins 2, Dodgers 1 (10)
Albert Pujols grounded into a double play to end the top of the 10th, and the Marlins won it on a wild pitch and errant throw to third base.
8. July 18: at Rockies 6, Dodgers 5 (10)
The Rockies tied it in the bottom of the ninth against Jansen, and after the Dodgers scored, Charlie Blackmon hit the walk-off home run off Phil Bickford.
9. July 23: Rockies 9, at Dodgers 6 (10)
The Dodgers loaded the bases with no outs in the bottom of the ninth, but Daniel Bard struck out Will Smith, Sheldon Neuse and AJ Pollock. The Rockies then scored three runs off Jimmie Sherfy, including Blackmon's two-run homer.
10. July 30: at Diamondbacks 6, Dodgers 5 (10)
The Dodgers failed to score and then Arizona beat Jimmy Nelson on Asdrubal Cabrera's base hit.
11. Aug. 6: Angels 4, at Dodgers 3 (10)
The Angels scored twice, with the second coming off a pop fly that bounced off Max Muncy's glove. The Dodgers scored once but left two on.
Not all the blame goes to the bullpen, as the Dodgers haven't scored many runs in extra innings, but these results do not inspire confidence about what will happen down the stretch or in October.
Schedule note: The Dodgers have just the one series left against the Giants in early September, so not many head-to-head matchups with which to gain ground. They need to clean up in their next 13 games: a six-game road trip to Philly and the Mets and then home for seven against the Pirates and Mets.
San Diego Padres
Keep it going: The bullpen
The bullpen has carried the load, leading the majors with a 2.90 ERA and ranking fourth in win probability added. As Brad Doolittle pointed out in his post-deadline Stock Watch, however, Padres relievers are also third in the majors in batters faced.
Needs to get it going: Blake Snell/Yu Darvish
The two big trade acquisitions have obviously had mixed results this year, with Snell sitting on a 5.24 ERA and averaging fewer than five innings per start. Even Darvish has stumbled of late before a strong outing Saturday against a weak Arizona team, striking out 12 in seven innings. But even including that game he has a 6.34 ERA over his past six starts with 10 home runs in 32⅔ innings.
Schedule note: Not too long ago, the Padres seemed assured of at least a wild-card spot, but now the Reds are breathing down their necks. And their September schedule is tough. Their final seven series: at Dodgers, at Giants, at Cardinals, vs. Giants, vs. Braves, at Dodgers, at Giants. If Fernando Tatis Jr. doesn't make it big, the Padres could end up missing the playoffs.
Cincinnati Reds
Keep it going: Joey Votto
On June 9, Votto was hitting .216/.310/.405 with five home runs. Since then he has hit .308/.399/.654 with 18 home runs and 48 RBIs in 50 games -- sixth in the majors in OPS in that span. With Votto, Nick Castellanos, Jesse Winker, Jonathan India (quietly posting a .406 OBP) and Mike Moustakas just returning from the IL, this is one of best offenses in the league.
Needs to get it going: Late-game relief
The Reds remade the entire back end of the bullpen at the trade deadline, acquiring Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson from the Yankees and Mychal Givens from the Rockies, while also getting Michael Lorenzen off the IL. We'll see if Lorenzen takes the reins on the closer role or if it remains with Heath Hembree or somebody else. Manager David Bell is just hoping to find three hot hands he can turn to, especially in the ninth inning. The Reds, despite ranking 22nd in bullpen WPA, are 8-6 in extra-inning games and 19-12 in one-run games.
Schedule note: We just mentioned San Diego's tough schedule. The Reds have a much softer one, with 10 games against the Pirates (they're 8-1 against them so far), seven against the Marlins, six against the Cubs and a four-game series late in the year against the Nationals.
Philadelphia Phillies
Keep it going: Bryce Harper
Harper has been red hot for over a month now, hitting .338/.450/.691 with 11 home runs, 16 doubles and 26 RBIs in 40 games heading into Sunday when he homered again -- and perhaps even playing his way into the MVP discussion if the Phillies can hold on to first place (and Tatis doesn't return).
Needs to get it going: The rotation aside from Zack Wheeler
For all the (understandable) complaining about the bullpen, the rotation went 6-10 with a 5.91 ERA in July. Kyle Gibson has provided a lift with two strong starts after his acquisition from Texas (2-0, three runs in 12⅔ innings). Aaron Nola continues to be inconsistent with a 5.53 ERA over his past 15 starts -- nearly two runs above his career mark. Let's see how well Ranger Suarez does here as he continues to get stretched out into longer appearances.
Schedule note: With an eight-game winning streak after completing a sweep of the Mets on Sunday, all the momentum is swinging Philly's way. The homestand continues with two big series against the Dodgers and Reds, but they have just three games remaining against both the Mets and Braves (and Nationals as well, as the Phillies play mostly out of the division the rest of the way, which is some bad schedule making).
Atlanta Braves
Keep it going: Austin Riley
Riley has quietly had an excellent season, hitting .292/.369/.519 with 23 home runs and 69 RBIs. All the indicators are positive as well, suggesting this is the real deal. With Freddie Freeman on a tear and the trade-deadline additions of Jorge Soler and Adam Duvall (and Joc Pederson before that), the offense has been able to withstand the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr.
Needs to get it going: Late-game relief
It has been the bugaboo all season for Atlanta and it happened again on Saturday when Riley Adams hit a three-run home run off Will Smith in the ninth to give the Nationals a 3-2 victory. The Atlanta bullpen is 24th in the majors in WPA and Smith and Tyler Matzek are a combined 3-9. This one has been more about clutch pitching than bad pitching, so there's no reason the bullpen can't regress upward down the stretch.
Schedule note: They have two nine-game road trips to come: one starting Friday to D.C., Miami and Baltimore and then a tougher one in September to San Francisco, Arizona and San Diego. The Braves end the season with a six-game homestand against the Phillies and Mets.
New York Mets
Keep it going: Umm ... is anybody really going right now?
Case in point: Marcus Stroman has a solid 3.62 ERA over his past 10 starts -- and is 1-7 in those games. The offense was a little better in July but has stumbled again, as the Mets have gone 2-9 over their past 11 games -- and they have now gone 18 games without scoring more than five runs in a game. So the answer here is they better hope they're still close when -- and that's a big if -- Jacob deGrom returns in September.
Needs to get it going: The offense
The Mets are averaging just 3.75 runs per game heading into Sunday -- only the Pirates are worse. Javier Baez isn't a good bet to help much, either, with his strikeouts and low OBP. Is there any hope for improvement? Maybe a little, but the Mets also rank near the bottom in various Statcast measurements such as hard-hit rate, expected wOBA and exit velocity. They're .234 as a team with an expected average based on quality of contact of .233. It hasn't been bad luck. It has just been bad hitting.
Schedule note: Who created the NL East schedule this year? The Mets also have just three games left against the Phillies and Braves, so we have this three-team race -- please, let's not call it "great" -- but the three teams will barely play each other down the stretch. The Mets play 13 games in a row against the Dodgers and Giants from Aug. 13 to Aug. 26. Ouch.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay Rays
Keep it going: Mike Zunino and Francisco Mejia
One thing about the Rays: They're going to keep doing it their way. They are last in the AL in strikeouts and 11th in batting average, but they're fourth in home runs and third in runs. They make it work. One secret key has been their production at catcher. They are second in the majors in OPS behind the Giants and lead in home runs (26), runs (66) and RBIs (63).
Needs to get it going: Somebody in the rotation
With Tyler Glasnow out for the year, the Rays' rotation depth is thin. Hard-throwing rookie lefty Shane McClanahan has been the team's best starter of late with a 3.18 ERA over his past eight starts and excellent peripherals. Don't be surprised if the rotation features three rookies in McClanahan, Luis Patino and Shane Baz, who has crushed it in the minors and pitched for the Olympic team. Actually, Josh Fleming is still a rookie as well, so that could be four rookies getting starts.
Schedule note: They still have seven games left against the Orioles and they're 11-1 against them. But the big games will be the 10 remaining against Boston, starting with three games at Fenway on Tuesday. The Rays also end the season with a tough road trip to Houston and Yankee Stadium, their only remaining series against the Yankees.
Houston Astros
Keep it going: Luis Garcia
The entire rotation has been outstanding, but Garcia has been a revelation, probably the top candidate for AL Rookie of the Year, as he's 8-6 with a 3.29 ERA and 129 K's in 106⅔ innings. He's not a flamethrower, averaging 93.4 mph with his four-seamer, but he has a five-pitch repertoire with a cutter, slider, changeup and curveball, with an advanced feel for setting up hitters. His career high for innings in the minors was 108 in A-ball in 2019, so he's entering uncharted territory.
Needs to get it going: Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel
Gurriel just landed on the IL with neck stiffness and homered just twice in 41 games (although he had hit .311). Bregman has been out since June 16. So this is really just getting everybody healthy and making the league's best offense even better.
Schedule note: Their next 21 games are against the Rockies, Angels, Royals, Mariners, Royals again, Rangers and Mariners again. Depending on how tough you view the Angels and Mariners, it's a pretty soft schedule before finishing up at Oakland and then at home against the Rays and A's. Let's see if that final series against the A's comes into play.
Chicago White Sox
Keep it going: Lance Lynn and Carlos Rodon
The best one-two punch in the league. Lynn is 10-3 with a 2.04 ERA and Rodon is 9-5 with a 2.38 ERA. Early in the season, after a couple of slow hooks on starters (especially Lucas Giolito), the concern was that Tony La Russa might run his starters into the ground. That hasn't happened. Giolito is seventh in the majors in pitches thrown, Dylan Cease 22nd, Dallas Keuchel 35th, Lynn 45th and Rodon 52nd. And they've remained healthy and productive. Now with a big lead in the division, La Russa can even back off a little and get ready for October.
Needs to get it going: Eloy Jimenez
The Sox are just 13th in the AL in home runs, as Jose Abreu has been their only consistent power threat, so getting Jimenez's power bat is important for their chances in the postseason. Luis Robert, out since May, is also about to return, giving the White Sox another potential power source.
Schedule note: The White Sox are in a battle for the best record in the AL, and while they play in the softest division, only 17 of their remaining 50 games are within the division. Starting later this week, they have a tough 14-game stretch against the Yankees, A's, Rays and Blue Jays.
Boston Red Sox
Keep it going: Umm ...
The Red Sox have turned a 4.5-game lead in early July into a four-game deficit to the Rays, with the Yankees and Blue Jays now closing in. They just completed a disastrous 2-8 road trip with a crushing loss to Toronto on Sunday. While the offense scored eight runs Sunday, it had struggled over its 12 previous games, scoring 29 runs as the team went 3-9. Nothing is going well at the moment and you wonder if the team simply played over its head for three months.
Needs to get it going: The rotation
Chris Sale should return this week to hopefully inject some ace-level work, as the rotation has a 4.85 ERA since the beginning of July. While the rotation has remained healthy with five starters all making at least 21 starts so far, none of them has an ERA under 4.00. Tanner Houck could also make an impact, as he has pitched well in three short starts (three runs over 12⅓ innings) since the middle of July. Still, now looking up at the Rays, there is a lot of pressure on Sale to be the dominant pitcher he was pre-injury.
Schedule note: They're done with the Blue Jays but have 10 left against the Rays and six against the Yankees (they're 10-3 against them), plus nine against the Orioles. The season ends with a soft road trip to Baltimore and Washington.
Oakland Athletics
Keep it going: Chris Bassitt
Maybe the most underrated starter in the majors over the past couple of seasons, Bassitt is 11-3 with a 3.19 ERA, including a 2.78 ERA over his past 14 outings while holding batters to a .209/.259/.346 line over that time frame. He and Sean Manaea have been keys to a rotation that ranks third in the AL in ERA and first in the majors in innings.
Needs to get it going: The guys replacing Ramon Laureano
With Laureano out for the season after his 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, the acquisition of Starling Marte looms even larger since Marte was already playing center field with Laureano shifted to right. So far, it looks like Mark Canha will shift from left to right, with Tony Kemp and Josh Harrison -- another deadline move -- platooning in left.
Schedule note: They're 4-9 against the Astros with those two series against them at the end of the season, sandwiched around three games in Seattle. They begin their last extended road trip this week: three at Cleveland, three at Texas and four at the White Sox.
New York Yankees
Keep it going: Anthony Rizzo
Rizzo had provided a big lift, hitting .281/.400/.563 in nine games since moving over from the Cubs -- and then landed on the COVID-19 injured list, where he joins Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery and Gary Sanchez. The outbreak occurred after a road trip to Florida, where COVID-19 cases are surging. If the Yankees miss the playoffs by a game or two, this missing time due to COVID-19 is going to hang over the team.
Needs to get it going: Joey Gallo
Gallo has hit .162/.295/.351 with 18 strikeouts in 10 games since joining the Yankees, although his one home run was the key blast in a win over Seattle (it was a pop fly to right field that doesn't leave any other park in the majors).
Schedule note: Despite the COVID-19 situation, the Yankees had reeled off five straight wins before Sunday's loss and they are 15-7 since the All-Star break. They have seven games left against Toronto, six against Boston and then that season-ending series at home against Tampa Bay. They have no more road trips to Florida.
Toronto Blue Jays
Keep it going: The way they played the past two weeks
With Sunday's big comeback against the Red Sox, the Jays are 10-2 over their past 12 games. We know they can score runs in bunches, but they've thrown three shutouts in that span and allowed one run in two other games. Robbie Ray has three scoreless outings in three of his past seven starts, as he has cut down on the home runs allowed, lowering his season ERA to 2.90.
Needs to get it going: Record in one-run games
The Jays are 21-10 in blowout games (decided by five or more runs) but just 8-13 in one-run games. But they had a one-run victory in Saturday's doubleheader and then Sunday's 9-8 win, so maybe they'll start winning those games -- really, they haven't had that many in the first place, with the fewest one-run games played in the majors.
Schedule note: They're done with Boston but will have two series each against the Rays and Yankees in September, plus one series against Oakland early in that month.