The calls started Monday. For weeks, teams have danced around the looming July 30 trade deadline -- the ones looking to add not wanting to jump the market, the ones looking to divest abiding by the principle that the best return may come with a ticking clock. Monday served as the unofficially official start to trade season, with communication picking up and teams positioning themselves for a fascinating next 10 days.
Some executives believe it's bound to be frenzied, with enough teams trying to add that the market includes players beyond impending free agents. Others fear that this will be a deadline of enormous posturing and scant action. Almost all agreed: If there is going to be movement, it's unlikely to come in the next few days. Someone who may well be in the middle of it all forecast as much publicly.
Let's play GM again. Make a trade now and pay a big price or wait until closer to the deadline and pay a reasonable price ?
— Steven Cohen (@StevenACohen2) July 20, 2021
That's from Steve Cohen, owner of the New York Mets, about whom there are plenty of questions. We could devote 20 alone to the Mets, but that wouldn't be very fair or equitable, now, would it? In fact, we'll get to the Mets later. For now, let's start with one player who fits on contenders and noncontenders alike.
What's happening with Byron Buxton?
A lot. For a guy who has played three games since May 6, Buxton is on the minds of people across baseball who are awaiting the resolution of his contract extension talks with the Minnesota Twins -- and the possibility he gets traded.
The extension always was, and remains, a long shot. Buxton and the Twins talked during the spring, and the gap was far too big to bridge. Then he went out and put up almost three wins above replacement in fewer than 30 games and illustrated exactly why he sees himself as a nine-figure player. Then he got hurt and showed why the Twins don't. And thus the same issue that always presents itself in any Buxton conversation -- the resplendence of his talent vs. the infrequency with which he is on the field to display it -- had another data point.
The question, should the extension not come to fruition, is whether the Twins actually will trade him. Some are convinced he's gone. Others think they hold him with an eye on 2022, when they can shake off this disaster of a season and rebound like they did from 2016 to 2017. Should the Twins move him, the return, executives said, would be massive.
It's not just that Buxton is expected to return from a broken hand relatively soon. It's the value next season. While most top-tier talent is paid $15 million-plus in the final year before free agency, Buxton, because of how often he's been hurt, never piled up the counting statistics that matter so much in arbitration. He's estimated to make somewhere in the $7 million to $8 million range.
The upshot? Every team is in play -- especially those with lower budgets. Buxton would be a perfect fit for the Tampa Bay Rays, who have an especially deep farm system with major-league-ready talent that would appeal to Minnesota. The Rays rarely have access to star-level talent. Same goes for Milwaukee and Oakland, which, like Tampa Bay, have multiple center fielders but none quite like Buxton.
Don't discount the big markets, of course. Philadelphia would love a center fielder of his caliber -- but would need to deal from its major league inventory to get him because its farm system is almost barren. Imagine Buxton patrolling center for the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets or Giants. Might a big-money team consider taking on the $57 million remaining on third baseman Josh Donaldson's deal to get Buxton and lessen the package returning to Minnesota?
It's July. Blockbusters can come together in a hurry. The sport's eyes are trained on Twins president Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine, and not just because of Buxton.
Where is Jose Berrios going?
Certainly the Twins could deal Buxton and hold Berrios, or trade Berrios and hold Buxton, but rivals expect their fates will be one and the same. The market for Berrios, who, like Buxton, will be a free agent after the 2022 season, is theoretically robust. In early trade discussions, sources said, contending teams especially are coveting controllable starting pitching.
Berrios is the best of those. The teams that match up, then, are the ones in contention, looking for pitching and in possession of top-end young talent, good farm-system depth or both. That list isn't very long: the Los Angeles Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Blue Jays and perhaps the Rays. The Los Angeles Angels certainly could use a pitcher of Berrios' caliber. He'd fit the Yankees well, but they're not inclined to part with their best minor leaguers.
As with Buxton, sources are wildly divided on Berrios' fate, which is the sort of thing that could be advantageous to the Twins. They can hold out for what they want, and if they don't get it, then they can wait until July 30 to truly show their cards.
Hold on. This market isn't going to resolve itself until July 30?
An assortment of words from executives Monday:
"We're going to be playing footsie for the next week."
"This deadline is going to be all smoke and no fire."
"You may see some small things. I got some calls on relievers being available today. But the big guys? That's going to be a while."
Who are the big guys?
Kris Bryant is the biggest name who is almost certain to get dealt, and his versatility makes him awfully attractive to a number of teams that are adding. The --
So, hold on. I want to get back to the big guys, but --
Did you just interrupt me?
Yes. It was rude. Sorry not sorry. Can you pretty please, with sugar on top, tell me which teams want to acquire guys?
This list is subject to change, but right now, the teams are:
• Boston
• Tampa Bay
• Toronto
• Houston
• Oakland
• Seattle (could do the add-and-subtract-simultaneously thing)
• Los Angeles Angels (same)
• New York Mets
• Philadelphia
• Atlanta
• Washington
• Milwaukee
• San Francisco
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• San Diego
So wait. If there are 17 teams on the add list -- and with a good week, Cleveland or Cincinnati could work its way onto it, too -- does the market favor teams adding or subtracting?
It is an in-flux market, liable to mutate from one to the other. Here's why:
• Some of those teams' targets are limited. Boston and Houston aren't grabbing a big starter or everyday player. Atlanta and Washington could lose a few straight and go from adding to subtracting overnight. The fluidity of this list, in fact, should be an invitation to teams looking to offload guys: Strike while there's interest among the masses, because the prices, as billionaire investor Steve Cohen noted earlier, may shrink alongside the demand.
• Wild cards. Ignore playoff odds. There are still 70 games left. The idea of handicapping the playoffs right now when one good week and one bad week can completely flip them on their head is stupid. The Angels believe if they can tread water until Mike Trout returns and add pitching, the second wild card is within their reach. And over more than two months, the 6½ games they sit behind Oakland for the second wild card is not a serious deficit.
• The NL East stinks. The less that's said about it, the better.
OK. The big guys, please?
Of course! There's Bryant and Colorado shortstop Trevor Story, the two best free-agents-to-be on noncontending teams. There's Joey Gallo, the mashing Texas Rangers outfielder. There's Craig Kimbrel, the Chicago Cubs' all-world closer. And there's more from the Cubs: shortstop Javier Baez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo, though executives across baseball agree Baez and Rizzo are far less likely to be moved.
Bryant is as good as gone. Like I was saying, the versatility: 14 games played in center field (and remarkably well for someone who goes 6-foot-5, 240 pounds) among his 56 in the outfield and 28 at his natural position, third base. The needs everywhere are acute. The Mets need a bat -- and could use him at third and all three outfield spots. Alec Bohm has been sub-replacement-level at third for the Phillies, and Bryant over Odubel Herrera in center is an easy call, too. A domestic violence investigation sidelined Nationals third baseman Starlin Castro. And that's just in the NL East.
Whoever misses out on Bryant goes to get Gallo, right?
Nope. They're wildly different situations. Gallo doesn't reach free agency until after the 2022 season. He also has been better than Bryant this season.
Gallo is hitting .233/.391/.510 to Bryant's .265/.345/.490. Gallo is walking more frequently than anyone else in baseball, and his power stroke has taken off since the league announced -- and eventually implemented -- plans to crack down on the use of foreign substances.
There are fits all over for Gallo. San Diego is open to adding a significant bat like Gallo's and other players, even if it takes the Padres past the luxury-tax threshold, according to sources. The Yankees' staggeringly right-handed lineup could benefit from Gallo's presence. Imagine Toronto's lineup, also very righty-heavy, with Gallo. While the White Sox could use a corner outfielder, their farm system isn't strong enough to put together a compelling package for Gallo, and they're disinclined to deal a major leaguer -- injured second baseman Nick Madrigal or pitcher Michael Kopech -- as the centerpiece.
What do the White Sox do then?
They might not necessarily make a splash, but they will be better after July 30 than they were before. Part of that is because outfielder-but-probably-DH Eloy Jimenez is on a rehab assignment and is expected back soon, and center fielder Luis Robert, also out for months, isn't far behind. The White Sox could focus on a corner-outfield spot, but some combination of Andrew Vaughn, Gavin Sheets, Adam Engel and Brian Goodwin will suffice in a lineup that already has Jimenez, Robert, Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada and, should he return from knee surgery healthy, Yasmani Grandal.
While the Eduardo Escobar-to-the-Sox rumors were treated as a fait accompli, that deal never came particularly close, and something interesting happened in the meantime: In the six weeks since Madrigal's season-ending injury, Leury Garcia, who has captured the second-base job, is hitting .291/.388/.465. That will play for a No. 9 hitter.
So what will the White Sox do? Like every contender, they're trawling the relief market. They'll add to their bullpen. And if the price happens to drop on one of the bigger names, perhaps then they won't say no.
Like who?
Trevor Story. The Rockies' shortstop isn't exactly having a walk season to remember, hitting .242/.315/.428. He's still excellent defensively, and for the right price, even teams with an elite shortstop could try to find room for him. Good as Garcia has been, a Tim Anderson-Trevor Story up-the-middle combination is unfair.
The skepticism over whether Story will move at all has grown in recent weeks. The Rockies have a very interesting decision to make. There aren't many obvious landing spots for Story. Oakland isn't in -- not with $6.2 million due in salary over the final two months. The Yankees make sense, especially if they're willing to shift Gleyber Torres to second base, but are they good enough to justify the prospect capital that acquiring Story would take? Fringe teams and rentals tend not to mix well. The Mets could use Story as a replacement while Francisco Lindor nurses an oblique injury, shift him to second upon Lindor's return and move Jeff McNeil to third base, where he has played.
There's also a scenario in which the Rockies believe their best path is to hold on to Story, tender him the qualifying offer and receive a first-round compensation pick when he signs elsewhere. In a vacuum, this isn't the worst idea, but multiple executives pointed out the potential folly. While the Rockies may be able to get a better player with the draft pick, that is an incomplete equation. The real one is: Is the drafted player + his signing bonus (around $2.4 million) + Story's $6.2 million salary > what a team is willing to give to rent Story? Considering that $8.6 million, almost every executive said that unless the Story market craters, they would be better served to trade him.
Who else's market is undefined?
Nelson Cruz. National League teams have poked around at the idea of him playing in the field, and Cruz, a renowned great teammate, is game. But he's 41. He last manned the outfield three years ago. He'd either be trudging around there or learning first base on the fly. It's a hard sell.
So consider the AL. There's an obvious landing spot for him: Tampa Bay. The Rays could use a middle-of-the-lineup thumper, and as good as they are at spreading around designated hitter at-bats, Cruz remains one of the best hitters in baseball and would rightly capture that role.
Two other teams are worth keeping an eye on. The Mariners would welcome a return from Cruz and could see him as their addition to counterbalance a potential loss if the right sort of offer comes on Mitch Haniger from a team in need of outfield help. And Toronto, should it miss out on pitchers and still want a star, understands something: Because of his limited positionality, Cruz will cost the least of all the impact talent available.
Who's going to cost the most?
Barring a last-minute entry into the proceedings -- like the Nationals waving the white flag and Max Scherzer indicating he'll waive his no-trade clause -- it goes a little something like this: Buxton, Gallo, Berrios, Kimbrel, Bryant.
A closer ahead of a position player? Well, yes. This time of year, there typically aren't as many fits for everyday guys as there are for Bryant. But beyond that, every team -- even the best of the best -- can use a reliever of Kimbrel's caliber: 33 2/3 innings, 11 hits, 11 walks, 58 strikeouts, one home run allowed, 0.53 ERA. This is vintage Kimbrel, a rebirth of the closer who alongside Aroldis Chapman redefined bullpen dominance.
The Red Sox could use him. The Astros could use him. The Blue Jays could use him. The Phillies could use him. The Giants could use him. The Dodgers could use him. The Rays and A's, too, although some of Kimbrel's value comes in the $16 million club option for 2022, which is awfully pricey for Tampa Bay and Oakland.
Any hope of the Cubs getting as much for Kimbrel as they gave up for Chapman in 2016 is overly optimistic. Different times, different motivations. But rest assured: Kimbrel may be the likeliest of anyone to move because the need for good relief pitching is so acute and the teams incredibly motivated.
How about another player whom everyone likes?
Starling Marte qualifies. He can play all three outfield positions, run, hit for average and hit for power. He is not Byron Buxton. He's not Byron Buxton Lite. He's just a really, really, really good baseball player to whom the Marlins reportedly offered a three-year, $30 million extension, which wasn't going to get anything done -- not even with Marte turning 33 in October.
What's with the midseason extension talks?
Great question. Buxton. Marte. The Rangers could engage with Gallo, though as rare as it is to see a Scott Boras client sign a pre-free-agency deal, the pre-free-agency deal negotiated in the middle of the season would be new altogether. Baez or Rizzo getting locked up in Chicago is not out of the realm of possibility. Even the Dodgers have considered the possibility of locking up valuable utilityman Chris Taylor before he reaches free agency this winter.
Teams understand the climate for players. Some are worried about a potential labor stoppage -- about the uncertainty of the baseball world going forward. None has bit on an extension yet. But plenty of time remains until July 30.
Where else are teams motivated?
They're rummaging for innings. The biggest fear for contenders is that their starters, back for a full season after the pandemic-shortened 2020, will wither over the final two months. Accordingly, the market for the good ol' workaday starter -- Pittsburgh's Tyler Anderson, Arizona's Merrill Kelly, even somebody like Kansas City's Mike Minor -- is ripe.
The king of the innings-eaters this deadline season is Texas' Kyle Gibson, who Pac-Mans frames at an incredibly effective level. If Scherzer stays put ... if Berrios doesn't go anywhere ... if the Reds don't make Luis Castillo available ... if Yusei Kikuchi remains a Mariner ... then Gibson may well be the best starter dealt in the next 10 days.
How good are the relievers beyond Kimbrel?
Something funny happened on the way to July 30: MLB's enforcement of foreign-substance rules completely changed some teams' outlooks on potential deadline-acquisition targets.
Two GMs this week pointed out the case of Richard Rodriguez, the Pirates' closer who had emerged at the top of some teams' non-Kimbrel reliever lists. Since June 21, the day umpires first started checking players for foreign substances, Rodriguez's four-seam fastball -- which he throws more than 85% of the time -- has seen its spin rate drop 226 rpms. His slider is even worse. Before June 21, Rodriguez threw 50 sliders. The average spin rate was 2,511 rpms. Post-June 21, Rodriguez has thrown 18 sliders. The average spin rate has been 2,084 rpms.
There are still plenty of good relief pitchers out there -- Rodriguez has seven scoreless appearances and two blow-ups for a 5.00 ERA in the time since the rules were enforced -- but the influence of foreign substances on player evaluation is very, very real. Teams have noticed that Dodgers starter Walker Buehler has lost more than 225 rpms on his post-June 21 fastball, slider, cutter and curveball. They see Lucas Giolito's stuff in that same time period registering differently, too: his fastball down 191 rpms, his slider 250 and his curveball -- which he threw 20 times pre-June 21st and 22 times post -- minus 437 rpms.
No, spin rate does not tell the whole story. Buehler has a 2.35 ERA in five starts after June 21. Giolito just threw a brilliant 107-pitch complete game against Houston, the best offensive team in baseball by a fairly good margin. This isn't to say spin shmin, because spin clearly does help pitchers, but it's not everything.
Does it work the other way around? Kimbrel's fastball spin is barely down and his curveball spin is actually up. Is he seen as even better now? Gibson's rates are almost entirely flat. Berrios' rpms have receded slightly. Tyler Anderson is down 158 on his fastball and 168 on his cutter.
Who's motivated to get starting pitching?
It could well be the Dodgers. Trevor Bauer hasn't pitched since June 28 after being accused of sexually assaulting a woman, and the team hasn't indicated it expects him to return any time soon. Clayton Kershaw is on the injured list with forearm inflammation and hasn't started throwing. Dustin May underwent Tommy John surgery. All things considered, the remaining rotation with Buehler, Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin is impressive, and Josiah Gray, the Dodgers' top pitching prospect, will debut Tuesday.
Still, the Dodgers' success is built as much on depth as it is on stars, and a pitching staff can fall apart in a hurry without innings-eaters prepared to gobble.
Why are you talking about a second-place team?
Wowwwwwww. All this time I wondered where you're from, and it turns out San Francisco? Never would've guessed. You seem like a Midwesterner.
Anyway, yes, the Giants are indeed in first in the NL West, two games ahead of the Dodgers, 5½ up on the Padres, sporting the best record in baseball. They're doing this with Kevin Gausman pitching better than anyone in the NL not named deGrom, with Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford leading the way like it's the mid-2010s, with a bullpen full of out-makers. The Giants are just a good baseball team, and as much room as they have to add, with a farm system that's deep enough to get anyone, president Farhan Zaidi and GM Scott Harris shepherded this team here through patience. And as wide-open as the NL is -- as wide-open as the path to the World Series is in both leagues -- the Giants aren't suddenly going to change their entire philosophy and methodology to go ring-chasing.
I mean, others kinda are, aren't they?
I said I didn't want to talk about the NL East.
But you have to.
Why?
Because this is the 20th question: What's going on in the NL East?
Fine. It's actually pretty interesting. And as these next 10 days unfold, it could serve as something of a bellwether as to where the entire trade market is going.
The Mets are in first, but it's not like they've distinguished themselves particularly well. They're almost as many games over .500 (seven) as they are runs above their opponents (nine). Injuries have sabotaged their season, and right now, with ace Jacob deGrom and shortstop Francisco Lindor sidelined for unknown amounts of time, the Mets look vulnerable enough that even worse teams are trying to make a run.
Atlanta has spent all season underachieving. The Marcell Ozuna contract of this past winter looks like an abject disaster after police accused him of abusing his wife in front of them. Mike Soroka re-tore his Achilles and will miss the year. Ronald Acuna Jr., one of baseball's biggest stars, blew out his knee and is out for nearly a year. And yet Alex Anthopoulos, the swashbuckling Atlanta GM, acquired Joc Pederson from the Cubs and Stephen Vogt from the Diamondbacks. And while Atlanta won't be adding big, with starter Huascar Ynoa and catcher Travis d'Arnaud on their way back from the injured list, it's still on the hunt, for relief pitching especially.
Washington is in even worse position: at 44-49, closer to the last-place Marlins than the Mets. And yet Mike Rizzo, the Nationals' GM, is aggressive like Anthopoulos and still considering upgrading. The Nationals have two games against Miami, three at Baltimore, four at Philadelphia and three against the Cubs heading into the deadline, and it's no wonder Rizzo wants to give his team an opportunity to cook before breaking up the party.
The Phillies may be the most fascinating NL East team of all. They are 47-45. They've been outscored this season. And there is hope nevertheless, not simply because of their starting pitching or position-player talent but because they've got the easiest schedule, by a long shot, in baseball the rest of the way.
Philadelphia's opponent winning percentage over the final 70 games of the season is .463, which means on average for the rest of the season, the Phillies will be playing the equivalent of a 75-win team every night. The Mets, whom they trail by just 2½ games, face the seventh-toughest schedule in baseball, with a .514 winning percentage.
This doesn't mean the Phillies are going to win the East. It doesn't mean the Mets are going to falter. It's simply context for the next week and a half when the Mets get to decide whether the returns of deGrom and Lindor and Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco with the addition of, say, Kris Bryant will be enough. Or when the Phillies want to believe an Aaron Nola-Zack Wheeler-Zach Eflin rotation can not only get them to the postseason but also win there and tap into that meh system to cobble together the best roster Dave Dombrowski, another go-for-it type, can.
This is deadline season. It is feints and parries, subterfuge and misdirection. It is saying things are going to be slow when they're frenetic and predicting chaos when there's calm. It's a big, fat question mark, and soon enough, as July 30 calls, there will be 20 more to answer.