One month from today, Major League Baseball's trade deadline will arrive at 4 p.m. ET on Friday, July 30 with what executives around the sport anticipate will be a flurry of action. While it's impossible to know what the weeks leading up to the deadline hold -- and how wins and losses will influence teams contemplating whether to add or subtract for the stretch -- the market is beginning to sort itself out. And that's a perfect time to answer 20 questions about what's next.
When are we going to start seeing trades?
We saw one Tuesday, when the Toronto Blue Jays acquired reliever Adam Cimber and outfielder Corey Dickerson from the Miami Marlins for veteran infielder Joe Panik and a Double-A reliever.
I said when are we going to start seeing trades?
Oh, funny guy doesn't like a solid bullpen upgrade and an injured-hitter lottery ticket for the wannabe playoff team and a salary dump for a team that may unload more despite having the best run differential in its division. OK. I see how it is.
Well, bad news. It may be a while.
Why?
A few reasons.
First and foremost: Not many teams are in offload mode yet. The most aggressive team in letting contenders know they're dumping is the Arizona Diamondbacks. In fact, they're the only team that has made its intentions clear, which makes sense, seeing as they're on pace to go 44-118. Others have hinted that they'll soon unburden themselves of those pesky good players, but very little advanced talks are taking place.
Also: The timing of the MLB draft is slightly problematic. If there's a deal to be done, of course a deal is going to be done, but with the draft taking place a month later than usual during the All-Star break, teams are -- and especially will be -- devoting energy and time to amateurs. One look at the top 10 in the draft, and it makes sense why trades may have to wait. The teams that stunk last year pretty much all stink this year.
So which teams will be fielding calls from those interested in adding?
The clear ones, according to major league sources: Arizona, Baltimore, Colorado, Detroit, Miami, Pittsburgh and Texas. Kansas City, which has lost 19 of 23, is almost certain to wind up there.
The team almost every contender is waiting on: the Minnesota Twins.
The Twins?
What you want, they've got. Or pretty much, at least.
Barring a team like the Washington Nationals cratering and making Max Scherzer available -- more on him later -- the Twins' Jose Berrios looks like the best pitcher on the market. The belief among teams is that Minnesota will entertain dealing Berrios but will necessitate a massive return. Understandably so. Berrios is 27, is under club control through 2022, as durable as it gets and in the midst of the best season of his career. He'd be perfect for the New York Mets, who are in first place in the National League East, or Atlanta, which isn't. He'd fit in Chicago (North Side edition) and Los Angeles (Orange County edition), even if neither is a playoff team. That's the beauty of Berrios. If he's out there -- and an increasing number of executives believe Minnesota will deal him -- his market is everyone.
What would the market look like for Nelson Cruz?
Even at 41 years old, Cruz is amazingly productive, and while the number of teams that can acquire him is hindered by him living that DH-only life, nobody can argue with .303/.373/.567 and 17 home runs. The landing spots are seemingly sparse nonetheless. Five teams in the AL are no good and won't bother. The Red Sox have J.D. Martinez, the Yankees Giancarlo Stanton, Cleveland Franmil Reyes, the Astros Yordan Alvarez and the Angels Shohei Ohtani. That leaves five teams with reasonable cases to get Cruz.
Chicago: With Yermin Mercedes' magic worn off and the White Sox's slugging deteriorated, they could use the thunder. The only issue: The availability of the DH spot will depend on how committed the White Sox are to the currently injured Eloy Jimenez returning to left field.
Tampa Bay: Austin Meadows, arguably the Rays' best hitter this year, plays DH for them. He could play outfield, but at the expense of Randy Arozarena, Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot or Brett Phillips, all of whom are well-above-average outfielders, whereas Meadows isn't? Well ... yeah, actually. If you can get Nelson Cruz in the middle of an underwhelming lineup, you do it. Particularly when the return in players won't be hefty because Cruz is a pending free agent and the money wouldn't be bad, either -- about $4.25 million if he's shipped out July 30.
Toronto: The Jays don't have a regular DH, and their lineup would be criminal with Cruz. But in terms of priorities, another bopper is far below upgrading their pitching staff.
Oakland: The A's have gotten plenty of production out of the right side of their DH platoon. But it's Nelson Cruz, and they'll at least listen as they weigh other priorities.
Seattle: Oddly, this may be the best fit. Cruz spent four years in Seattle and remains beloved there. The Mariners don't have a regular DH and are, at least for the time being, over .500. Plenty are dubious of Seattle's ability to stay there, so perhaps this is one of those check-back-in-a-couple-weeks scenarios.
Point is: Nelson Cruz rules, and there's no great fit for him even though, in truth, plenty of teams would be great fits for him if they got over themselves, closed their eyes, pictured their manager penciling Cruz in to the cleanup slot and considered the fear he instills in just about every pitcher.
So this market is entirely dependent on the Twins?
Of course not -- though I didn't mention left-handed reliever Taylor Rogers is very popular among teams that want bullpen help, which is pretty much every team. There are plenty of other key factors -- but we can't forget Minnesota potentially moving starter Michael Pineda or relievers Tyler Duffey (under control) or Hansel Robles (free agent-to-be) or shortstop wizard Andrelton Simmons.
Enough with the Twins, please.
Sorry. They're the team everyone is talking about.
What other questions are teams asking?
Who's the best player available?
Hey, I'm the one who's supposed to ask the questions.
Then ask it.
Fine. Who's the best player available?
Three names keep coming up: Colorado shortstop Trevor Story, Miami center fielder Starling Marte and Texas right fielder Joey Gallo. They're three different players with three varying skill sets who fill three particular needs.
Where is Story going?
The answer should be: somewhere. But nothing is guaranteed, even though it would be ridiculous to hold onto Story as he prepares to leave Colorado in free agency. It's just that across baseball, good teams tend to have good shortstops, and so evaluators struggled to find any definitive destination for him. Consider that right now the shortstops for first-place teams are Xander Bogaerts, Tim Anderson, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Willy Adames and Brandon Crawford.
The most obvious fit is Oakland, and yet sources told ESPN that the A's are unlikely to play in the Story market, even with veteran shortstop Elvis Andrus playing better but still among the least-productive at the position in all of baseball. An impact outfield bat may be a greater priority, though the prospect of a left side of the infield with Story and Matt Chapman is easy to dream on.
Should Oakland remain out of the mix, Colorado's options are extremely limited. Would Cleveland, currently two games back of the second wild-card spot and with much of its rotation on the injured list, actually add? It's not the team's style, though recall the Josh Donaldson deal in 2018 to know that it's possible.
With all of Paul DeJong's struggles, St. Louis would seem a reasonable option. Two issues. First, the Cardinals are not good enough to deal for a player like Story when he's due to hit free agency after the season. And then there's the optics for Colorado. It already shipped Nolan Arenado to St. Louis this offseason. Sending him and Story? No shot.
That leaves the New York Yankees, who have a shortstop in Gleyber Torres. He hasn't hit this year. Fielding metrics generally regard him as average to below average. He's 24, and as brilliant as he has been in past seasons, the Yankees have a conundrum. Do they try to salvage their season now by targeting an impact guy, or do they look at their 41-38 record with a run differential of zero and try to piecemeal it?
Well?
It's not an easy choice. Right now, the Yankees are the fourth-best team in the AL East in record, run differential and, frankly, talent. They're banged up, yeah, but guess what: So is everyone else. If it were any other franchise, the choice would be easy: Punt on 2021 and get ready for 2022. Their blessing is their curse.
The Yankees don't punt, at least not entirely, and especially not in a season, it should be noted, that has no clear-cut favorite. Everyone thought it was the Dodgers. It probably still is the Dodgers. But record-wise they remain behind San Francisco, a team that entered the season with an over/under of around 76. They're two-thirds of the way there and it's not even the All-Star break yet.
So the Yankees. Yeah. Sorry. They just have the air of irrelevance at the moment and are rather forgettable. They'd love to get Ketel Marte, the Diamondbacks' infielder/outfielder extraordinaire, but for one he's hurt and even more important, Arizona has told multiple teams not to bother asking because Marte isn't going anywhere.
What, then, if New York shifted to another Marte (of no relation): Starling?
Don't other teams want him?
They should, sure. Starling Marte would be phenomenal with the Mets. In Boston, adding him would allow Kiké Hernandez to play super-utility instead of center. Atlanta, if it ever stops losing, would be so much better with him. Same goes for Philadelphia.
Why such excitement for Marte, a 32-year-old who will be a free agent after this season? Well, how about this: Among players with at least 25 games this season, here are the five highest total of FanGraphs WAR divided by games played.
Byron Buxton: 0.1000 per game
Starling Marte: 0.0643 per game
Mike Trout: 0.0639 per game
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 0.0623 per game
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 0.0605 per game
Now that is company.
If you can get Marte, why bother with Gallo?
The upside is better. You get two years of control. And you may just be buying a player whose value is appreciating.
The consequences of baseball's foreign-substance crackdown tend to center around the effect on pitchers. But imagine a hitter who was terrible against high-spin fastballs but destroyed low-spin fastballs. What's going to happen to him when the average four-seam fastball spin rate of the league drops by 100 rpm like that?
We're about to find out from Gallo. The MLB average on four-seamers this year is 2,300 rpm. Against fastballs with more than 2,300, he's batting .176 and slugging .294 with one home run. Against fastballs under 2,300, he's batting .303 and slugging .939 with seven homers in 33 at-bats.
The early returns are extraordinarily promising. Gallo has homered five times in his past three games and has 18 on the season. He leads all of baseball with 62 walks. He's 27 years old. Yes, you're likely to get low batting average with Gallo, but perhaps that changes with the spin, and even if it doesn't, he's still among the most productive players around -- and one of just a few with present tools and even more in the tank.
The market for Gallo will start to materialize soon. It will be robust, as it should be. And Texas' rebuild will continue with Gallo and Kyle Gibson, who may be the second-best starter available, leaving Arlington.
Who else is any good and could be on the move?
The wild cards are those middle-of-the-road teams whose next two weeks will chart their course. Like Cincinnati. If the Reds, who are a .500 club now, peel off a couple of losing streaks, executives believe outfielder Nick Castellanos -- who can opt out of the final two years of his deal after this season -- could find himself heading to a contender.
And the Los Angeles Angels. They've got the best player in baseball this season in Shohei Ohtani and the best player in baseball period in Mike Trout hopefully returning from a partially torn calf. But they don't have enough else, so they're still meh, which could make Raisel Iglesias a coveted closer on July 30.
Or the Philadelphia Phillies, whose perpetual mediocrity is really quite a thing to behold. Should they continue to underwhelm, Philadelphia will miss the postseason for the 10th consecutive year, which would presumably leave them open to finding the proper suitor for outfielder Andrew McCutchen.
Copy the previous paragraph, change "Philadelphia Phillies" to "Seattle Mariners," change 10th to 20th and make Andrew McCutchen into Mitch Haniger. Oh, and Haniger has companions who also should draw interest: third baseman Kyle Seager and closer Kendall Graveman.
One GM on Tuesday said: "I hope the Cardinals at least consider moving [Giovanny] Gallegos, because they're just not very good and they don't have anyone else to trade." That's a slight exaggeration about not having anyone to trade -- the not-very-good part is right. Gallegos, 29, has been one of the best relievers in baseball over the past three seasons, and this season especially, and with 3½ years of service remaining, a Gallegos-type reliever is an archetype for which teams are trawling.
Others worth mentioning because they're almost certainly moving: Pittsburgh second baseman/outfielder Adam Frazier and closer Richard Rodriguez, both of whom should bring nice returns for the Pirates.
Who isn't going anywhere?
Caveat: This is subject to change. One offer for any of these players can pry them from their teams. But it needs to be an overpay, a franchise-changer, because as all the following players' teams rebuild, they see these guys as central to their plans: Trey Mancini and Cedric Mullins (Baltimore), Adolis Garcia (Texas), Bryan Reynolds (Pittsburgh), Ketel Marte and Carson Kelly (Arizona), German Marquez (Colorado). Marte and Marquez may be most valuable of all because they're already locked into long-term contracts.
Are the Cubs really gonna hold -- or add?
A week ago, the answer was yes. Now, the answer is yes, but it's a yes with less conviction. On one hand, Chicago is still four games above .500. On the other, the team the Cubs are chasing, Milwaukee, is 14 games over. That's not insurmountable, not even close, but if the Cubs continue to fade and the Brewers surge, the possibility remains that Chicago will be in a position in which it can sell the fan base on the idea that punting is smart.
It would be an incredibly risky proposition, especially with Chicago packing Wrigley Field and enjoying -- at least until the past few weeks, when the offense vanished -- this incarnation of the Cubs.
Chicago could theoretically do the add-and-subtract -- leverage the players with the most value for the greatest return, then find players in areas of need elsewhere. But this skid the Cubs are on now is going to have to continue well into their schedule, and seeing as they're finally reaching a point of ease, the likelihood is a fun summer at Wrigley.
What gives you faith that's actually going to happen?
After the Cubs try to avoid a sweep at Milwaukee on Wednesday, here's their schedule: 30 consecutive games against teams that do not have a winning record. This isn't as much a love letter to the Cubs, who are admittedly a flawed team, as it is a reminder that part of the calculus with holding always was a mediocre schedule in July that has gotten even easier with St. Louis cratering over the past month and showing few signs of extracting itself.
Are the Nationals really gonna hold -- or add?
Sure seems that way thanks to Kyle Schwarber doing his best Ohtani imitation. Or half-Ohtani at least.
It's a bummer for contenders, too, because they really loved the idea of dealing for Schwarber or Brad Hand or Daniel Hudson or especially Scherzer. Executives talked longingly about the possibility of a Scherzcenary, brought in for the stretch drive and to throw complete games, talk to himself on the mound and get his hair sniffed by umpires.
Alas, unless the Nats crater, Scherzer will fulfill his full seven-year deal and enter free agency again this offseason at 37 years old as one of the best pitchers in the big leagues.
Who's definitely looking to add?
Not all of them. But here are 11 teams with significant playoff aspirations:
• San Francisco: The Giants don't need much. Maybe a high-leverage reliever. Of course, all it takes is an injury to change that.
• Houston: As one person connected to the Astros said, "Two good relievers." Thing is, over the next few weeks, they're primed to get Josh James, Pedro Baez, Joe Smith, Enoli Paredes, Bryan Abreu and Austin Pruitt back from the injured list. If they can't wheedle two relievers out of that, they'll get aggressive.
• Tampa Bay: Nelson Cruz?
• Boston: Starting pitching depth. Chris Sale is due back soon, and that should make the Red Sox even better than their AL East-leading selves.
• Los Angeles Dodgers: If the Dodgers could buy health, they would. In the meantime, they don't need to make any panic trades or fill in any vacancies. If there's a trade here, it may be for a high-leverage reliever, but there aren't many of those and the prices will be exorbitant because everybody wants one.
• San Diego: Eh, it doesn't matter. You know A.J. Preller is gonna make some kind of trade.
• A's: That outfield bat, a lefty bench bat and perhaps that shortstop.
• White Sox: The return of Jimenez and Luis Robert will be like the most bonanza deal imaginable. Also, they've been talking with Arizona about infielder Eduardo Escobar, whose infield versatility would help Chicago navigate its injuries.
• Blue Jays: Starting pitching, high-leverage relief pitching, middle-inning relief pitching, mop-up relief pitching, relief for relief pitching. Did I say they need pitching?
• Mets: Starting pitcher, center fielder, bullpen. For being as good as they are, the Mets have plenty of room to improve.
• Brewers: An impact bat would be nice -- though over the past month, the Brewers have scored the fifth-most runs in baseball. They've certainly got the pitching to make it work.
When does the last trade happen and how many trades will happen that day?
On July 30, at 4:02 p.m. ET, two minutes after the deadline, when it's technically supposed to be outlawed but Major League Baseball gives nods and winks and manages to keep up the suspense for at least a few extra minutes.
Total trades on July 30: 19.