With every team but the New York Mets past the 60-game mark, the point at which last season's standings were forever frozen, we have a pretty good idea of how the 2021 MLB playoff races are setting up.
There will be further movement, to be sure. Some divisions haven't shown much separation, which is exciting but can also be misleading when trying to sort pretenders from contenders. Also, the plague of injuries adds an extra layer of uncertainty.
Still, with a little over six weeks to go before this year's trade deadline, we can begin to designate teams looking to add or subtract, along with the middle group of teams that could still move in either direction, or add and subtract at the same time, as sometimes is the case.
With this month's edition of Stock Watch, that's what we're going to do. Along with that, I'll identify a couple of key needs for playoff-contending teams and trade candidates for noncontending teams. For the teams in the middle, I'll touch on what needs to happen for them to reach the coveted top tier.
Where does your team land?
As always, teams are ranked according to a power ranking calculated by my projection system, which considers individual player forecasts, injuries and current depth charts. Those power rankings serve as the basis for 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule, which gives us our team win forecasts and playoff probabilities.
Going for it
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Power rating: 99.7
Avg. simulation wins: 102.1 | Change from May: -1.0
Division %: 82.5 | Playoff %: 98.9
Pennant %: 42.5 | Title %: 28.8
Key need: Relief pitching
As usual, the Dodgers will hit the deadline without any glaring needs. Thus, they can read the market and strike if something impactful emerges, or do nothing that will generate headlines. The Dodgers rank second in the majors in net runs per game and have positive regression to look forward to from Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts, not to mention a return to the lineup by Corey Seager. The relief pitching has been more middling than good, but even there the Dodgers can hope for more than they've gotten so far from Brusdar Graterol and a possible return by Corey Knebel.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
Power rating: 96.1
Avg. simulation wins: 97.5 | Change from May: +11.6
Division %: 68.3 | Playoff %: 92.3
Pennant %: 24.7 | Title %: 11.0
Key needs: Lefty reliever, contact hitter
The Rays' bullpen tilts quite a bit to the right, though a playoff version of that group infused by swingmen and starters like Shane McClanahan, Ryan Yarbrough and Josh Fleming could balance out nicely. Still, Jeffrey Springs has been so-so and Cody Reed is out for the season, so another veteran lefty might be needed. As for the contact hitter, it's hard to say where the Rays would deploy such a player, and they might simply call up Wander Franco to fill the role. For one thing, the Rays have been winning with next-level defense, and you don't want to mess with that. Still, Tampa Bay has an awful lot of swing-and-miss in its lineup for a World Series contender.
3. Chicago White Sox
Power rating: 95.8
Avg. simulation wins: 93.0 | Change from May: +7.0
Division %: 83.7 | Playoff %: 86.3
Pennant %: 17.9 | Title %: 6.4
Key needs: Bullpen, right field
With Nick Madrigal joining Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert on the IL, the White Sox now have three core position players who aren't likely to return to the lineup before the trade deadline. They've muddled through so far, but Madrigal's absence means a stopgap solution is needed. In that context, the trade deadline season might already be here for the White Sox. A perfect fit would be Pittsburgh's Adam Frazier, who would give the lineup a needed lefty bat and replace Madrigal's defense and contact ability. He also has the kind of defensive versatility to serve in a super-utility role even after the White Sox get healthy. As for the bullpen, the White Sox still have the makings of a strong back end, but the depth is lacking, and they need one or two additional arms to allow Tony La Russa to play matchups in October.
4. San Diego Padres
Power rating: 93.8
Avg. simulation wins: 93.4 | Change from May: +3.7
Division %: 14.4 | Playoff %: 81.3
Pennant %: 11.2 | Title %: 6.2
Key needs: Outfield bat, high-leverage relief
The Padres have underachieved as a team in the power department, and the most obvious position group to upgrade in this regard is the outfield, where Tommy Pham and Jurickson Profar have struggled. Joey Gallo's name has surfaced in the Padres rumor department, and that makes a lot of sense. In the bullpen, the Padres have depth, but one more lockdown lead protector to go with Mark Melancon would crystallize the roster for October.
5. Houston Astros
Power rating: 92.6
Avg. simulation wins: 91.2 | Change from May: -0.2
Division %: 35.9 | Playoff %: 65.0
Pennant %: 12.0 | Title %: 5.0
Key needs: Closer, center field
The Astros' bullpen has some of the worst results in baseball, and while there are some good arms and hopes for regression as the group gets healthier, a closer might help bring it all into focus. Ryan Pressly has pitched well as the main saves guy, but adding someone like Pittsburgh's Richard Rodriguez would be a major boost. Houston's post-George Springer plan in center field hasn't panned out so far, and the trade market should have quality options such as Baltimore's Cedric Mullins and Miami's Starling Marte.
6. Chicago Cubs
Power rating: 91.3
Avg. simulation wins: 94.0 | Change from May: +5.9
Division %: 68.3 | Playoff %: 83.0
Pennant %: 15.0 | Title %: 8.4
Key needs: Starting pitching, second base
The bullpen has carried so much of the load so far for the Cubs that it seems all but certain that the Cubs will need to get more out of their rotation over the rest of the season. The problem is that this is a team that everyone thought would be subtracting at the end of July. That suggests GM Jed Hoyer isn't going to be overly aggressive when it comes to the bigger-name short-term players who are available. Additions will be made, though. Second base might be solved if Nico Hoerner can stay healthy. If not, perennial trade candidate Jonathan Schoop could work.
7. San Francisco Giants
Power rating: 90.1
Avg. simulation wins: 88.0 | Change from May: +10.6
Division %: 3.1 | Playoff %: 41.6
Pennant %: 2.1 | Title %: 0.8
Key needs: Middle-of-the-order bat, closer
The Giants have overachieved, which is why their playoff probability doesn't reflect their strong win-loss record thus far. But with 14 blown saves on the ledger, that record could be even better. Rodriguez would be a fit, but if the Pirates try to move him, the competition for his services will be fierce. Texas' Ian Kennedy is another possibility. San Francisco's brain trust isn't going to dip too deeply into its prospect pool, especially since it's had so much success with playing the waiver market and with low-level trades. As for that big bat: If the Giants are willing to pay the price for an impact rental, this lineup could become more dynamic. Two names that leap out -- if the Reds decide to shuffle the deck -- are Cincinnati teammates Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos.
8. Oakland Athletics
Power rating: 89.1
Avg. simulation wins: 93.3 | Change from May: +2.5
Division %: 57.0 | Playoff %: 78.4
Pennant %: 18.0 | Title %: 7.6
Key needs: Shortstop, outfield bat
Elvis Andrus has looked pretty much done during his first season with the A's, making Oakland's shortstop position one of the most glaring holes on any contender's dossier. Under Billy Beane, the A's have always been aggressive, which makes Oakland a top suitor for Colorado free-agent-to-be Trevor Story. Beyond Story, other names to watch include Minnesota's Jorge Polanco and Andrelton Simmons, plus Miami's Miguel Rojas.
9. Boston Red Sox
Power rating: 89.0
Avg. simulation wins: 91.0 | Change from May: +7.9
Division %: 18.9 | Playoff %: 62.6
Pennant %: 10.6 | Title %: 4.3
Key needs: Starting pitching, first baseman
If Bobby Dalbec were to get hot, that would solve the first-base issue. But if he continues to struggle, the Red Sox have a clear sore spot in a lineup that otherwise has been pretty good. First base isn't a super-strong position in the trade landscape, but perhaps Miami's Jesus Aguilar could work if the Marlins look to deal. The bigger need is the rotation, which has been better than expected but also could be in for some regression. You can hope for a major boost in the form of Chris Sale's return, but Boston probably needs to approach that as icing on the cake. Unless the Nationals go on a run, Max Scherzer will loom over everything else in the trade market. But beyond that, there could be some decent values like Detroit's Matthew Boyd, Colorado's Jon Gray and Baltimore's John Means.
10. New York Mets
Power rating: 89.0
Avg. simulation wins: 92.3 | Change from May: +3.8
Division %: 77.2 | Playoff %: 82.0
Pennant %: 18.0 | Title %: 9.8
Key needs: Health, rotation depth
Health isn't really a trade target, but so much of the Mets' approach regarding the deadline revolves around the status of Noah Syndergaard, Carlos Carrasco, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, J.D. Davis, Brandon Nimmo and others. The Mets have played well this season and the list of players battling injury is impressive enough to remind us that a healthy version of this Mets roster is really good. That said, the struggles of the rotation beyond the top three of Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker signify a need for quality depth. If Syndergaard and/or Carrasco can't get back, that'll be especially important. Boyd, Means, Jon Gray -- all the prominent names on the whisper mill ought to be Mets targets.
Need more data
11. New York Yankees
Power rating: 87.9
Avg. simulation wins: 87.0 | Change from May: -10.0
Division %: 7.3 | Playoff %: 38.5
Pennant %: 6.7 | Title %: 3.2
What needs to be fixed: Center field, underachieving offense
Aaron Hicks' season-ending wrist injury makes finding an every-day solution in center field a high-priority item for Brian Cashman and his lieutenants. Mullins, Starling Marte and Arizona's Ketel Marte all fit. So, too, might another Diamondback: David Peralta, who would give the Yankees another lefty bat. He's not a center fielder, but maybe the Yankees could get away with Brett Gardner and a yet-to-be-named platoon partner at that spot and turn left field over to Peralta. The Yankees can hope for a successful return by Luis Severino to boost the rotation in the near term -- though he recently suffered a setback -- and a similar boost late in the summer from Corey Kluber. Still, this group will remain a big, fat red flag in the health column, so a veteran who provides some innings certainly would help.
12. Toronto Blue Jays
Power rating: 86.3
Avg. simulation wins: 85.8 | Change from May: +3.4
Division %: 5.6 | Playoff %: 32.0
Pennant %: 3.7 | Title %: 1.3
What needs to be fixed: Back of the bullpen
Toronto's power-laden offense has been strong all season despite the limited availability of prized free agent George Springer. His return completes a very strong lineup. To get its playoff probability into the upper tier, Toronto needs pitching, in whatever form it can find it. The Blue Jays could shore up the back of the bullpen by getting Julian Merryweather healthy, but they are going to need more than that to hang with the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox.
13. Milwaukee Brewers
Power rating: 84.3
Avg. simulation wins: 88.0 | Change from May: +2.7
Division %: 18.8 | Playoff %: 43.7
Pennant %: 3.1 | Title %: 1.3
What needs to be fixed: First base
The Brewers will be looking to add -- they always are under David Stearns. Run prevention is the foundation of these Brewers, and a return to health and form by Christian Yelich might be the only in-season boost they need. Still, Milwaukee could use a first-base upgrade. Aguilar is a popular former Brewer, is having a good season for Miami and might be just enough to help Milwaukee edge Chicago and St. Louis to win the NL Central.
14. Atlanta Braves
Power rating: 83.3
Avg. simulation wins: 84.8 | Change from May: -5.7
Division %: 18.4 | Playoff %: 30.1
Pennant %: 4.3 | Title %: 2.2
What needs to be fixed: Back of the bullpen
It's hard to imagine the Braves moving into the noncontender category. But the defending NL East champs have been one of baseball's more disappointing clubs. The inability of Christian Pache to plant his flag in center field has made that position a major hole in the Atlanta lineup. But the Braves need to focus on their bullpen. Atlanta ranks 27th in reliever win probability added and has just two more saves (13) than blown saves (11).
15. Los Angeles Angels
Power rating: 82.1
Avg. simulation wins: 84.3 | Change from May: -3.0
Division %: 7.0 | Playoff %: 18.8
Pennant %: 2.7 | Title %: 0.9
What needs to be fixed: Starting rotation
The Angels have played well of late, and while it's too soon to say they've returned to the contention status they held when the season opened, they've at least managed to keep from falling apart during the absence of Mike Trout. As always, the Angels need rotation help. That could come in the form of positive regression, as Dylan Bundy, Griffin Canning and the currently injured Jose Quintana have all fallen well short of their projections. Still, this is a club that should never stop looking for marginal pitching staff upgrades, because if Trout comes back hot and Anthony Rendon can get going, the Angels are a team that will score a lot of runs.
16. St. Louis Cardinals
Power rating: 80.4
Avg. simulation wins: 85.5 | Change from May: -2.6
Division %: 11.8 | Playoff %: 28.9
Pennant %: 3.2 | Title %: 1.4
What needs to be fixed: Starting rotation
The Cardinals entered the season with a just-above-average rotation that figured to need good health because the depth wasn't great. The group has not had good health, as Miles Mikolas has made just one start and ace Jack Flaherty went on the shelf with a serious oblique injury. On top of that, Kwang Hyun Kim's back has been barking. The St. Louis rotation needs a source of steady innings. Two top St. Louis rotation prospects -- Zack Thompson and Matthew Liberatore -- are at Triple-A Springfield, but they've both struggled, especially Thompson. The next few weeks will be a test of St. Louis' depth and creativity.
17. Cleveland Indians
Power rating: 79.0
Avg. simulation wins: 80.4 | Change from May: -2.2
Division %: 5.4 | Playoff %: 9.1
Pennant %: 0.5 | Title %: 0.1
What needs to be fixed: Rotation consistency
Cleveland has hung tough so far this season, despite a one-man offense in MVP candidate Jose Ramirez and a bullpen that has heaped a lot of responsibility on the high-leverage trio of James Karinchak, Bryan Shaw and Emmanuel Clase. Any chance the Indians have centers around their touted rotation doing better than it has thus far, and that general statement applies to ace Shane Bieber. But Cleveland needs more offense wherever it can find it. If the standings remain similar to the way they look today, the Indians should be one of the most aggressive teams when it comes to landing an impact bat. "Should," we'll note, is not a synonym for "will."
18. Philadelphia Phillies
Power rating: 78.8
Avg. simulation wins: 78.0 | Change from May: +0.3
Division %: 3.0 | Playoff %: 5.0
Pennant %: 0.3 | Title %: 0.1
What needs to be fixed: Pitching depth
I feel like I should explain the Phillies' vanished playoff odds, though their fans have likely already thrown their phones across the room in disgust. The main thing is that my system is not a big fan of the Phillies' roster. It sees Philly as being in a tight group with division mates Washington and Miami, with all three being a tier below Atlanta and New York. All of these teams' most likely path to the playoffs is winning the division. So even though the Phillies aren't that far out of first right now, the system doesn't see that lasting much longer. Based on recent days, it is fair to think that system is wrong. If Philly does manage to hang in contention -- which GM Dave Dombrowski almost certainly expects to happen -- it's probably going to be because neither the Mets nor the Braves get on a roll and pull away from the rest of the division. For the Phillies to change this scenario, their pitching beyond the top three of the rotation must coalesce.
19. Minnesota Twins
Power rating: 78.6
Avg. simulation wins: 81.3 | Change from May: -4.1
Division %: 9.1 | Playoff %: 13.8
Pennant %: 2.8 | Title %: 1.2
What needs to be fixed: Middle of the bullpen
The only thing keeping the Twins out of the noncontender group are probabilities that are still mildly propped up by Minnesota's strong preseason forecast. That is to say, the talent on this roster is a lot better than what the standings say. Health has been a problem, but in this year more than any other, that hardly holds up as an excuse. Getting Mitch Garver, Nelson Cruz, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Kenta Maeda, Luis Arraez, etc., back healthy and productive is the short-term goal. But when and if the varsity group gets back together, the Twins have to start rolling instantly or they will be looking ahead to 2022.
Time to look ahead
20. Cincinnati Reds
Power rating: 78.3
Avg. simulation wins: 77.7 | Change from May: +3.6
Division %: 1.1 | Playoff %: 3.6
Pennant %: 0.2 | Title %: 0.0
Top trade candidates: Jesse Winker, Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray
The Reds entered the season without a cogent plan at shortstop and indeed rank last at that position in bWAR. The pitching staff has been wildly inconsistent, but also has the potential for a lot of positive regression, especially from Castillo. The team defense, which looked bad on paper, is actually bad in reality. And yet the Reds have hovered around .500 this far into the season. So it is possible Cincinnati's odds here are understated. But if the Reds do fall out of contention, they have the option of launching an impactful makeover with several of the more coveted trade candidates in MLB.
21. Miami Marlins
Power rating: 77.8
Avg. simulation wins: 72.7 | Change from May: +5.7
Division %: 0.6 | Playoff %: 0.7
Pennant %: 0.0 | Title %: 0.0
Top trade candidates: Starling Marte, Jesus Aguilar, Miguel Rojas
Marte will be a free agent, but he has also talked of wanting to remain in Miami. Since the Marlins aren't that far away from winning, maybe he's not as available as one would think. If the Marlins do fall out of contention, Aguilar could be moved. He'd be a popular target, and Miami has Lewin Diaz waiting in the wings. Other possible candidates include outfielders Garrett Cooper and Adam Duvall, and relievers John Curtiss, Dylan Floro and Yimi Garcia.
22. Kansas City Royals
Power rating: 75.5
Avg. simulation wins: 76.7 | Change from May: -0.7
Division %: 1.8 | Playoff %: 2.9
Pennant %: 0.3 | Title %: 0.0
Top trade candidates: Carlos Santana, Jorge Soler, Danny Duffy
The Royals haven't thrown in the towel on this season. Still, while they've now graduated all of their advanced rotation to the majors, they haven't necessarily hit the ground running as big leaguers. If that continues, this season becomes more about letting Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic take their lumps in preparation for a postseason push in 2022. And if that happens, Soler, a free agent after the season, would become a coveted power bat despite his poor 2021 season to date. Santana signed a two-year deal and the Royals might prefer to hang onto him for next season's anticipated push. And Duffy is an organizational favorite, and even though he's also a pending free agent, Dayton Moore may simply not want to trade him. Other trade candidates include lefty Mike Minor and, if the Royals look to move relievers while their values are high, they would get calls about Josh Staumont and Scott Barlow.
23. Washington Nationals
Power rating: 74.5
Avg. simulation wins: 73.6 | Change from May: -10.0
Division %: 0.9 | Playoff %: 1.3
Pennant %: 0.1 | Title %: 0.0
Top trade candidates: Max Scherzer, Kyle Schwarber, Jon Lester
Well, if you believe in lightning striking twice in the same place, you can point to Washington's 19-31 start in 2019 and subsequent recovery all the way to a World Series title as reason to be patient with this group. But if a team built on a veteran rotation can't get that rotation producing at an elite level, that team is in trouble. Still, Juan Soto hasn't gotten truly hot yet and seems to be on an uptick, and if any one hitter can trigger a team-wide hot streak, it's him. As for the deadline ... it feels like things would really have to go south for the Nats to subtract. It just doesn't seem like part of GM Mike Rizzo's DNA.
24. Seattle Mariners
Power rating: 71.3
Avg. simulation wins: 72.3 | Change from May: -0.8
Division %: 0.1 | Playoff %: 0.3
Pennant %: 0.0 | Title %: 0.0
Top trade candidates: Mitch Haniger, Marco Gonzales, Kendall Graveman
The name to keep an eye on for teams looking for back-of-the-bullpen help is Graveman, who has found himself as a late-inning ace during his time with the Mariners. Before landing on the IL for COVID-19-related reasons, he had fashioned a 0.00 ERA over 14 outings with elite win probability added numbers in the back of the Seattle bullpen. Now he's back from the IL.
25. Texas Rangers
Power rating: 69.9
Avg. simulation wins: 68.7 | Change from May: -1.8
Division %: 0.0 | Playoff %: 0.1
Pennant %: 0.0 | Title %: 0.0
Top trade candidates: Joey Gallo, Kyle Gibson, Ian Kennedy
The Rangers can't rebuild forever, but they do have a clutch of veterans good enough to impact the pennant chase in key roles for the right team. Gibson has never been close to as good as he has been so far in 2021. He's under contract through next season, so if the Rangers want to deal him, Gibson could bring back a decent return.
26. Arizona Diamondbacks
Power rating: 67.0
Avg. simulation wins: 63.7 | Change from May: -13.8
Division %: 0.0 | Playoff %: 0.0
Pennant %: 0.0 | Title %: 0.0
Top trade candidates: David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar, Ketel Marte
The veteran hitters Arizona can dangle all could plug a key lineup hole for a contending team. But there isn't a whole lot of trade value on the Diamondbacks' roster once contracts are factored into the valuations. Still, after Arizona's collapse over the past few weeks, some kind of shake-up is needed. It's time to move everything you can that's not bolted down.
27. Detroit Tigers
Power rating: 63.2
Avg. simulation wins: 60.4 | Change from May: -0.5
Division %: 0.0 | Playoff %: 0.0
Pennant %: 0.0 | Title %: 0.0
Top trade candidates: Matthew Boyd, Jonathan Schoop, Robbie Grossman
Grossman is a player to watch, as the kind of complementary outfielder who can really help fill the skill gaps in a lineup at a reasonable cost. He is a good defender on the outfield corners, gets on base, adds value with his legs and has postseason experience. Boyd is on the short list of best starting pitchers who could be available. And teams always want Schoop at the deadline. The Tigers can be a mover and shaker in the trade market if they choose to be aggressive -- more aggressive than they've been in the past.
28. Baltimore Orioles
Power rating: 63.2
Avg. simulation wins: 57.2 | Change from May: -8.0
Division %: 0.0 | Playoff %: 0.0
Pennant %: 0.0 | Title %: 0.0
Top trade candidates: John Means, Cedric Mullins, Paul Fry
The handling of Means will tell us a lot about how far away the Orioles see themselves from returning to contention. Means, 28, is having a career season and could have a major impact on the postseason odds for a team that acquired him. He's still on a pre-arbitration contract, making him one of the most valuable bang-for-the-buck performers in 2021. So does Baltimore see Means still fronting the rotation when it switches to winning mode? Or do the Orioles see his success as an opportunity to add multiple future pieces?
29. Pittsburgh Pirates
Power rating: 62.2
Avg. simulation wins: 61.4 | Change from May: -2.8
Division %: 0.0 | Playoff %: 0.0
Pennant %: 0.0 | Title %: 0.0
Top trade candidates: Richard Rodriguez, Adam Frazier, Jacob Stallings
Frazier might be my favorite guy on the perceived trade market. We'll see whether teams agree. Rodriguez, should the Bucs choose to move him, might be the best high-leverage arm in the marketplace. And Stallings is a good catcher -- something in short supply in today's game. The Pirates have some very nice complementary players who are good enough that teams dealing with them have to be grateful that Pittsburgh is still so far away from contending.
30. Colorado Rockies
Power rating: 61.0
Avg. simulation wins: 53.6 | Change from May: -3.1
Division %: 0.0 | Playoff %: 0.0
Pennant %: 0.0 | Title %: 0.0
Top trade candidates: Trevor Story, Jon Gray, Ryan McMahon
Unless something goes very wrong, you figure Story will be the best player moved at the trade deadline, with the possible exception of Scherzer. Gray, a pending free agent, is a classic rental starter who has spent his entire big league career battling Coors Field. McMahon is a dark horse. He has turned into a fine all-around player who has gone to the next level in the power department and plays elite defense at three of the four infield positions. He's got two more arbitration seasons left after this one, so he's still got enough control left that he could bring a nice return. And the Rockies need to be thinking in terms of getting packages of prospects because they are just now turning the knob of the door that leads down the path of rebuilding.