With the MLB trade deadline just over a month away and some separation starting to occur in the standings, let's speculate on a key player each team should consider trading for or trading away.
A key dynamic to this year's deadline will be the competitive balance tax threshold of $210 million. Several teams are bumping right up to the limit -- and might not be willing to go over -- which obviously puts constraints on their deal-making flexibility, or might require some creative accounting. Consider these estimated CB tax payrolls from Cot's Contracts:
Yankees: $207.6 million
Astros: $207.0 million
Padres: $205.6 million
Red Sox: $205.5 million
Phillies: $202.5 million
The Dodgers, after going under the tax threshold in 2020, are way past it at $262 million. The Angels ($198.1) and Mets ($196.6) have some wriggle room. The big-market team with the most room to play with is the Cubs, sitting at $173 million, so it will be fascinating to see how aggressively they tackle the deadline in a transition season. The Braves are at $157.8 million, but operate under a tight budget from Liberty Media. The Cardinals' payroll is $20 million below what it was in 2019.
And here is the player we've identified who each team should look at adding -- or dealing away -- before the July 30 MLB deadline arrives.
AL East
Boston Red Sox: Acquire Asdrubal Cabrera
The biggest boost the Red Sox will get will be the return of Chris Sale, plus Triple-A outfielder Jarren Duran has a chance to make an impact in the second half. The Red Sox are near the bottom of the majors in production at first base, as Bobby Dalbec is lingering around the Mendoza Line with a strikeout rate approaching 40%. Cabrera brings a more contact-oriented approach and has put up a 120 OPS+ for the Diamondbacks.
Tampa Bay Rays: Acquire Max Scherzer
This isn't how the Rays normally operate, but hear me out. The Rays have the deepest well of talent to acquire Scherzer, with the best farm system in the game. They could easily keep the cream of their prospects and still pull off a five-for-one deal like the Dodgers did for Manny Machado in 2018. Given the Nationals have arguably the weakest farm system in baseball, a quantity-based deal makes sense for them if they do fall out of it and deal their ace. Scherzer has a complicated contract where his 2021 salary is deferred, so the Rays might not even have to take on any additional salary depending on the trade arrangements. The Rays have a strong team, but with Tyler Glasnow on the 60-day IL and his return obviously a huge unknown, they need a No. 1 to win the division and go deep in the postseason.
New York Yankees: Acquire Starling Marte
With Aaron Hicks expected to miss the rest of the season, Brett Gardner's production waning and Clint Frazier bad on both sides of the ball, the Yankees need an outfielder -- preferably a left-handed-hitting center fielder with power and defense. Good luck! Last time I checked, Ken Griffey Jr. and Jim Edmonds were long retired.
The Yankees can try to pry Ketel Marte away from Arizona, but he would be very expensive given his team-friendly contract. Free-agent-to-be Starling Marte is the more realistic option, even if it means adding another right-handed bat to the lineup.
Toronto Blue Jays: Acquire Richard Rodriguez
Despite Vladimir Guerrero's MVP numbers and Marcus Semien's big season, the Blue Jays are stuck in fourth place in the AL East, kind of leaving them in no man's land since this was a "go for it" year. It's possible they add a couple of minor bullpen pieces, get George Springer back and make a run after the All-Star break. Let's be positive and have them go after Pirates closer Richard Rodriguez, somebody who could step into that role beyond 2021.
Baltimore Orioles: Trade Trey Mancini
His comeback has been an uplifting story, but that doesn't mean the Orioles will keep him around simply as some sort of favor to the fans. That's not how the Astros operated when GM Mike Elias worked there and it's not how he's operating in Baltimore. Mancini is under team control through 2022 and the Orioles don't exactly look like contenders for 2022, so you may as well cash in now. Several contenders could use an upgrade at first base or DH -- the Red Sox, Indians, A's and Brewers leading that list.
AL Central
Chicago White Sox: Acquire Trevor Story
The Astros' four-game sweep exposed the White Sox a little bit -- it's one thing to beat up on the Tigers and Orioles -- and suggests maybe the Sox should think big at the deadline. Nick Madrigal's season-ending hamstring injury leaves a hole at second base and while Pittsburgh's Adam Frazier is an obvious target, I suggest thinking outside the box and going after Story and playing him at second base. Imagine adding Story -- plus Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert -- for an October run.
Cleveland Indians: Acquire Kyle Gibson
Cleveland needs offense, although Bobby Bradley has hit well since his call-up and Franmil Reyes will be back soon so there is at least hope those two will provide a power surge. In the meantime, the injuries to Zach Plesac and Shane Bieber exposed the struggles of the young starters at the back of the rotation, so Cleveland could use a veteran innings-eater who also fits its budget. Kyle Gibson has been terrific for the Rangers and is signed through 2022 at reasonable numbers ($9 million this year, $7 million next). Cleveland can make a run here if the front office thinks aggressively. The depth of infield prospects in the lower minors should be enough to bring back Gibson or somebody else.
Kansas City Royals: Trade Carlos Santana
The Royals were kind of a popular sleeper pick, but the young starters in the rotation have been inconsistent, Adalberto Mondesi just recently returned, and their top two power bats, Jorge Soler and Hunter Dozier, are hitting .340 -- that's a combined .340 if you add up their .187 and .153 averages.
Soler is a pending free agent but won't exactly be in the demand the way he's hitting. Santana, however, would be an interesting player for the Royals to consider trading. He is signed for $7 million this year and $10.5 million next year and is still effective at getting on base. The Red Sox, A's and Brewers are possibilities, or maybe even a team like Seattle that has struggled to fill first base and DH for years and could use Santana for 2022 as well as a longshot playoff chase in 2021.
Detroit Tigers: Trade Jonathan Schoop
Schoop has been in this position before, going from Baltimore to Milwaukee in 2018, and he provides a right-handed power bat who can play second or first base or serve as a nice bench player. If the Tigers wish to get more creative, they can shop Robbie Grossman (signed through 2022) and Matthew Boyd (team controlled through 2022), although Boyd is out until sometime after the All-Star break.
Minnesota Twins: Trade Taylor Rogers
I don't see this team going anywhere, not with Chicago and Cleveland so far out in front. I also hate advocating for a team that has this much talent raising a white flag -- but by the end of July, the choice might be clear, especially with Nelson Cruz, Michael Pineda, Andrelton Simmons, J.A. Happ and Hansel Robles all free agents.
Cruz remains a remarkable hitter but his DH-only status creates a limited market for him -- Oakland ... maybe the White Sox since the Yermin Mercedes train has come to a screeching halt and careened off the side of the mountain ... the Mariners if they somehow stay relevant? The most valuable potential trade piece could be Rogers, one of the top lefty relievers around. He's under team control for another season, but he'd fill a need for just about every playoff contender.
AL West
Oakland Athletics: Acquire Trevor Story
In one sense, this is an easy match. Oakland's hole at shortstop is one of the most prominent of any hole on a contending team. The Rockies need to trade Story. Most contenders are fairly set at shortstop, although maybe the Yankees will considering upgrading over Gleyber Torres. The issue, of course, is Story makes $17.5 million. Will the A's take on about $6 million for two months? Is this a bad time to mention A's owner John Fisher is worth about $3.4 billion? Do you want to win a World Series? Story is exactly what the A's need to round out a very good club.
Houston Astros: Acquire Kendall Graveman
The Astros have the best lineup in the majors (although Alex Bregman will now miss time) and the rotation is solid with a top-10 ERA, but the bullpen is 23rd in ERA and 29th in win probability added. Graveman has been dominant other than missing three weeks with a COVID-19 scare (the Mariners never confirmed whether he tested positive). Graveman throws a hard sinker (96-97 mph) with movement, is extremely affordable ($1.25 million) and is heading into free agency, making him one of the most attractive relievers available.
Seattle Mariners: Trade ... Mitch Haniger?
The Mariners are hovering just over .500 thanks to a four-game sweep of the Rays over the weekend and an 8-1 record in ghost-runner games, but it's a big uphill climb to the playoffs for a team that has overachieved. This gets us to Haniger, who could be one of the best position players available and is under team control through 2022. He's not necessarily a guaranteed extension candidate given his injury history and age (32 in 2023), but with Kyle Lewis' knee injury and Jarred Kelenic's early struggles, the Mariners' outfield of the future is on pause. They might need Haniger for 2022 if that's the year they really go for it.
Los Angeles Angels: Acquire Sonny Gray
The Angels are basically in the same position as the Mariners, except they have a much stronger offense that only improves when Mike Trout returns and Anthony Rendon starts hitting. They need pitching, but scraping the barrel for No. 5 starters won't move the needle enough to catch the A's or Astros, so they would need to think big -- Max Scherzer (but the Nationals will ask for Jo Adell or Brandon Marsh), or maybe Gray, if the Reds fall out of the race, since he is signed beyond 2021.
Texas Rangers: Trade Joey Gallo
Trading closer Ian Kennedy is the easy call here, but Jon Daniels and Chris Young will face the difficult task of whether to trade Gallo and Kyle Gibson with both under control for another season. On one hand, the Rangers are a lot closer to competing for the No. 1 overall pick than contending for the playoffs. On the other hand, 2022 will be Year 3 in the new stadium, with increasing pressure to build a competitive team after what will be five consecutive losing seasons. Why trade two of your top players? Gallo hasn't been able to match the 145 OPS+ he put up in 2019, but he's getting on base and plays good defense, and he could mash 20 home runs in two months.
NL East
New York Mets: Acquire John Means
The Mets sit in first place even though the offense has struggled due to injuries (Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Davis) and underperformance (Francisco Lindor, Dominic Smith). With some of that injured group starting to get healthy, the Mets should be able to bank on more runs. The rotation has been terrific, but there are several concerns: Jacob deGrom's aches and pains that won't go away, possible regression from Taijuan Walker, Noah Syndergaard's health, David Peterson's inconsistency. If they knew they were getting Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco back, that's one thing, but maybe they also need to hedge against deGrom's health. The Orioles are unlikely to trade Means and a deal might have to start with shortstop Ronny Mauricio, but it never hurts to ask.
Philadelphia Phillies: Acquire Craig Kimbrel
The bullpen gets much of the blame for what is shaping up as another .500-ish season -- and understandably, given it ranks 24th in the majors in win probability added -- but the offense ranks ninth in the NL in OPS, 10th in isolated power and eighth in runs. Not bottom of the barrel, but not championship caliber.
The biggest holes have actually been Alec Bohm and Didi Gregorius, although it's probably live-and-die with those two. So that gets us back to the bullpen. Will the Cubs trade Kimbrel, who has been one of the best closers in the league? It's becoming less likely that happens, but that shouldn't prevent Dave Dombrowski from inquiring -- and his history suggests he's not against trading prospects.
Atlanta Braves: Acquire Kyle Schwarber
The Braves started 0-4 and haven't been over .500, so maybe this is just turning into one of those seasons that sometimes happens to good teams. Adding bullpen help is probably a given, but the Braves are also playing two Quad-A outfielders right now in Abraham Almonte and Guillermo Heredia. They've actually been OK so far, but do you want to bet on that continuing? Schwarber has been on a tear -- he just tied a record with five home runs over two games -- and would fill the Marcell Ozuna void in the middle of the lineup.
Washington Nationals: Trade Max Scherzer
Look, Mike Rizzo is going to wait as long as possible before he packs it in on 2021, especially with his team playing itself to the fringes of contention the past couple weeks, but this isn't the 2019 Nationals -- when they got off to a bad start but still had Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin all pitching well. That's not the case in 2021, and even Scherzer is out right now with a groin injury. We mentioned Scherzer's deferred salary of $35 million for 2021 and while it's possible the Nationals might simply look for a team to take on that money for lesser prospects, this feels like an opportunity to add some much-needed minor league talent -- unless Washington proves me wrong with a prolonged run into the thick of things before July 30.
Miami Marlins: Trade Starling Marte
Last week exemplified the Marlins in 2021: They won 11-1 and 10-2, but lost 1-0, 2-1, 2-0 and 4-2, dropping to 5-15 in one-run games. First-year GM Kim Ng might not want to blow things up, but this is actually a veteran lineup with eight of their top 10 position players 30 or older. Marte is heading into free agency, so that's an easier decision to make. Jesus Aguilar and Miguel Rojas are also playing well -- but winning is important to a franchise that hasn't finished over .500 in a full season since 2009, and they could be instrumental players for 2022.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs: Acquire Michael Pineda
Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies are starting to pitch better, but Jake Arrieta has allowed 22 runs and six home runs over his past 18⅔ innings and two other starters are injured. Everyone will ask the Cubs about Craig Kimbrel, and maybe the Cubs do feel they have the bullpen depth to trade him while also adding much-needed rotation depth. If so, they are unlikely to be in the Scherzer discussions as they won't blow up their thin farm system, but one of the Twins' starters -- Michael Pineda (currently recovering from forearm inflammation) or J.A. Happ -- could be an option, as could the Rockies' Jon Gray or the Angels' Alex Cobb.
Milwaukee Brewers: Acquire Jesus Aguilar
The Brewers have already made a significant in-season upgrade in shortstop Willy Adames, although that trade came at the expense of bullpen depth. Center field has been a problem as Jackie Bradley Jr. is struggling to keep his average above .150 and Lorenzo Cain hasn't been able to stay healthy. With the big three of Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta, it feels like the Brewers' division to win -- especially if they can add some offense. Maybe that's Christian Yelich heating up, maybe that's Cain returning, or maybe it's an old name -- and fan favorite -- returning to play first base.
Cincinnati Reds: Acquire Andrelton Simmons
As my colleague Brad Doolittle pointed out, the Reds could end up as major players at the deadline if things go badly moving forward and they consider trading Jesse Winker, Sonny Gray and maybe even Luis Castillo. For now, however, let's consider the Reds looking to add, although since it's the Reds that might not mean much more than a couple of veteran relievers. Cincinnati is back to Kyle Farmer at shortstop, which is quite an achievement for a player who spent most of his time in the minors as a catcher, but that might not be the road to a division title (especially since Farmer has a .619 OPS). Simmons makes sense if the Twins fold.
St. Louis Cardinals: Acquire Joey Gallo
I can't remember the last time the Cardinals traded away veterans, and it's unlikely they will collapse to make that the case in 2021 -- but an honest assessment suggests this is a mediocre team, despite the better-than-expected results from Tyler O'Neill, Dylan Carlson, Yadier Molina, and the back of the bullpen. They need more offense, or really, need Paul Goldschmidt and Paul DeJong to hit better, and the rotation depth is a concern with Jack Flaherty out.
Still, anything can happen in the NL Central. While Scherzer-to-St. Louis rumors are hotter than the turf at the old Busch Stadium, the Cardinals may not want to trade some of their top prospects for a longshot World Series chase. Gallo would fix the hole in right field, where St. Louis has the second-lowest OPS in the majors, and provide a lefty bat in the middle of a lineup that is right-handed with Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Molina and O'Neill -- plus he would be under control for 2022.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Trade Richard Rodriguez
Cashing in on Adam Frazier's career season makes sense and there are a few potential trade partners for him, including the White Sox, Cubs and Giants. Rodriguez, however, might bring even more in return as a potential high-leverage reliever and the Pirates should absolutely flip a 31-year-old who might be having his best season.
NL West
San Francisco Giants: Acquire Max Scherzer
There are the usual minor upgrade candidates here -- relievers, maybe a second baseman or outfield depth -- but as this dream season continues, why not think, "How can we beat the Dodgers?" And that means getting the biggest potential difference-maker out there, and that's Scherzer. The rotation ERA has gone from 2.29 in April to 3.46 in May to 4.52 in June, so it's time to add somebody as the starters other than Kevin Gausman cool down. Farhan Zaidi has done a great job rebuilding the farm system to the point where there is depth to keep Marco Luciano and Joey Bart and still make a deal.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Acquire Kendall Graveman
OK, the superteam: wire-to-wire dominance isn't going to happen. Heck, finishing in first place is hardly a lock. The bullpen hasn't been a disaster -- seventh in the majors in win probability -- but the Dodgers are 1-7 in extra-inning games and the lineup should improve once Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy return. The conundrum facing the Dodgers: Kenley Jansen has actually been pretty good (1.52 ERA, nine hits in 29⅔ innings), but will Dave Roberts trust him in October? Craig Kimbrel hasn't exactly been Mariano Rivera in his postseason career. Richard Rodriguez has closed games for the Pirates, not for a pennant contender, and certainly not in the postseason. The setup guys (Blake Treinen, Victor Gonzalez, Jimmy Nelson) have been pretty good. The Dodgers could also look to add a starter and use Julio Urias in the bullpen in the playoffs like they did last year. Or maybe Bellinger's injury problems linger and they look to add an outfielder. I have the Dodgers staying conservative and adding another reliever for now, but it wouldn't shock me if they do something surprising at the deadline.
San Diego Padres: Acquire Trevor Story
OK, let's go outside the box here. The pitching is fine. Despite some injuries, the Padres lead the majors with a 3.13 ERA. The offense has been blah across the board -- eighth in the NL in batting average, fifth in OBP, seventh in slugging. The biggest weaknesses have been Eric Hosmer and Jurickson Profar, but they're not going to bench Hosmer and Profar won't play as much if everyone stays healthy. So, my wild idea: Trade for Story to play second base, moving Jake Cronenworth into a utility role. Plus, Story provides injury insurance for Fernando Tatis Jr.'s shoulder. Option B: Max Scherzer. It never hurts to have too much pitching. Option C: Mitch Haniger, if the Mariners decide to trade him. Option D: More boring than the first three options.
Colorado Rockies: Trade Trevor Story
This isn't necessarily a fait accompli -- this is the Rockies, remember -- as the Rockies might hold out hope of signing Story in free agency or perhaps believe the compensation pick they would receive for losing him is of more value. That's assuming we still have the same compensation system in the next collective bargaining agreement for players of Story's stature. Who knows how the shortstop frenzy will play out in the offseason, but Story will be in demand and a return to the Rockies is unlikely. Trade him while you can, as unpleasant as it will be without both Nolan Arenado and Story.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Well ...
Wow, that got ugly in a hurry. Two years ago the Diamondbacks finished 85-77. Last year, they looked like a good sneaky pick in March to do something, but they went 25-35 in the shortened season. Now they've set the all-time record for longest road losing streak -- which means they have to listen on anybody. Ketel Marte is the player everyone will want, but he's signed to a very team-friendly deal through 2024. He would be very expensive to acquire and the D-backs have enough talent in the majors and on the farm that they will avoid a complete teardown (and it doesn't appear to be in the DNA of the front office anyway). More likely to go: Eduardo Escobar (free agent), David Peralta (makes $7.5 million in 2022) and the always useful Asdrubal Cabrera (free agent).