Fresh off of an NLCS appearance and loaded with young talent, the Atlanta Braves entered 2021 as heavy favorites to win the NL East and a trendy World Series pick. Things haven't exactly worked out that way so far.
Entering Sunday's matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals (7 p.m. ET, ESPN), Atlanta is just 32-35 and 5.5 games behind the division-leading New York Mets.
We asked ESPN MLB baseball experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield to weigh in on everything from the root of Atlanta's struggles and what the Braves should do at the trade deadline to how much this impacts Ronald Acuña Jr.'s NL MVP chances.
How surprised are you at the Braves' record so far?
Doolittle: On a scale from hipster passivity ("Dude, I've been into Braves' disappointment since the '90s") to absolute freak-out ("This is a catastrophe! Move them back to Boston!"), I'd rate my surprise as an eyebrow raise from Mr. Spock ("Fascinating"). They've underachieved. It happens. More than half the season remains, and they have the time and the talent to still get where they expected to go.
Schoenfield: It's worth noting that human prognosticators were generally a little more optimistic about the Braves than the computer projections -- although Brad's own simulation did predict 96 wins for the Braves (FanGraphs was at 88 and Baseball Prospectus had them at 82). Still, I'm giving this start at least a six out of 10 on the disappointment scale, which perhaps merely suggests a move back to Milwaukee.
If you had said heading into late June the Nationals and Marlins would be well under .500, the Phillies struggling to crack .500, and the Mets had already used nine different hitters in the No. 3 spot and Francisco Lindor had nearly as many errors as home runs, you would expect the Braves to be running away with the division.
What's Atlanta's biggest issue right now?
Doolittle: The pitching in general has been below average, but within that side, the situational pitching has been the worst in baseball. According to Fangraphs, the Braves have allowed a MLB-worst .374 wOBA in high-leverage spots this season. A.J. Minter ranks in the top 30 in batters faced in high-leverage spots. He's got an ERA near 13 and a wOBA allowed of .450 in those situations. But he's not the only pitcher who the Braves figured to be part of their pitching staff core who has been very unclutch.
Schoenfield: Yep, that's been a huge problem. Closer Will Smith has five losses, although you look at his baseline stats -- hits, home runs, walks, strikeouts -- and they're all pretty good. But all five losses came in the ninth inning (four of those when he entered in a tie game), so you can't even blame ghost runners. He just hasn't been clutch. Was it bad luck? I looked at the five losses:
April 6 vs. Nationals: Victor Robles line-drive single, Trea Turner HBP, Juan Soto line-drive walk-off single. Not bad luck.
April 11 vs. Phillies: Alec Bohm leadoff double off the wall on a 3-1 pitch, groundout, sac fly. Not bad luck.
May 13 vs. Blue Jays: Danny Jansen soft groundball single, Marcus Semien soft line-drive single on 0-2 pitch, Bo Bichette hard double in the gap, Teoscar Hernandez bloop single to right, Cavan Biggio double off the wall. Mostly bad luck. Three soft hits.
May 18 vs. Mets: Tomas Nido homers with two outs on a 1-0 fastball. Not bad luck.
June 9 vs. Phillies: The one blown save, Smith entered with a 1-0 lead. Andrew McCutchen works a one-out walk, Luke Williams hits a walk-off two-run home run off an 0-1 slider. Not bad luck, although Williams went down and golfed it out.
Can they turn it around and win the division?
Doolittle: Yes, but they can't wait much longer to start rolling. The wild-card race looks rough for NL East teams, because the NL West's top three are so strong (assuming the Padres right their ship) and even the NL Central has the potential for two 90-win teams. The Mets, meanwhile, have navigated a rash of potentially devastating injuries and as they get healthier (and hopefully sidestep a major Jacob deGrom-related calamity), New York has the potential to run away with things. The Braves can't let their current deficit get any larger.
Schoenfield: Yes, but it won't be easy given the Mets have played well despite a long list of injuries and have Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo all nearing returns. But some trends are due to turn around. Freddie Freeman, who had been one of the unluckiest hitters in the majors, has raised his average 20 points in the past 10 days or so. The Braves are hoping Travis d'Arnaud, Mike Soroka and Huascar Ynoa can all return in August. The bullpen should improve. The questions remain about the rotation and whether the Braves will be close enough in August to make a run if they do get healthy.
What should they do at the trade deadline?
Doolittle: Move fast to add relief help and a big bat. The sooner the better, because of the dynamics of the race as outlined. Waiting until the end of July might be too late for Atlanta. Plus a splashy trade now might help change the deteriorating vibe around the team. And, yes, if I'm Alex Anthopoulos, I'm willing to dig into my prospect list to convince a rebuilding team that it won't do better by waiting for the market to develop. For the bat, Joey Gallo is a target who jumps out at me.
Schoenfield: The pitching has been the biggest issue, although I agree with Brad -- finding a big bat to replace Marcell Ozuna in left field would be wise. Gallo fits, as does Seattle's Mitch Haniger. Both are team controlled beyond 2021, so they won't be easy to acquire; both are also good defenders who help on both sides of the ball. The long-shot scenario would be acquiring Max Scherzer to give the team an ace, but intra-division trades of that magnitude are rare and I'm not sure A.A. is willing to give up the prospects needed.
Is Ronald Acuña Jr. still NL MVP if the Braves finish with the sub-.500 record they have now?
Doolittle: Still? Is he now? Look, I know that's the narrative and I love Acuña and I think he might well be the best player in the National League. But I don't see how he has created any separation at this point from other contenders like deGrom and Fernando Tatis Jr. If the top group remains roughly what it looks like right now in terms of how close the performances are, and deGrom and Tatis are playing for something and Acuña is putting up numbers for an also-ran, I don't see him winning it.
Schoenfield: What's fascinating is that it already looks like a three-man race, which doesn't mean to suggest Kris Bryant, Max Muncy, Jesse Winker or Nick Castellanos don't have a chance, or somebody like Mookie Betts, who is capable of going off in the final three months. Anyway, I think if the vote were held today, it's probably deGrom-Acuña-Tatis, but deGrom will have to pitch enough innings to stay at the top.