The All-Star break is always a good time to check in on every team, so before we reset everything for the second half and look ahead to the sprint to the trade deadline, let's review each team's current standing compared to what we thought it could do heading into the season. That's right, it's time to hand out first-half grades.
Jump to a franchise:
American League
BAL | BOS | CHW | CLE | DET
HOU | KC | LAA | MIN | NYY
OAK | SEA | TB | TEX | TOR
National League
ARI | ATL | CHC | CIN | COL
LAD | MIA | MIL | NYM | PHI
PIT | SD | SF | STL | WSH
San Francisco Giants: A+
Heading into 2021, the Giants looked old and mediocre. FanGraphs gave them a 0.2% chance of winning the division and 5.7% to make the playoffs. Now the Giants look like a savvy veteran club that just knows how to win and those playoffs odds are above 90%. Riding big seasons from All-Stars Kevin Gausman, Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford and Gabe Kapler's lineup machinations, they begin the second half with the best record in baseball -- but the Dodgers are breathing down their necks. Note: The Giants have seven games against the Dodgers in their first 13 coming out of the break.
Boston Red Sox: A
Most prognosticators picked the Red Sox fourth in the division after two lackluster seasons following the 2018 World Series title. Alex Cora's return provided some optimism, but the pitching staff looked problematic and the offense had some holes. The rotation has been more solid than great, but here's the key: All five starters have made at least 17 starts. Meanwhile, the bullpen has been excellent, with the top five relievers all with sub-3.00 ERAs, including All-Star closer Matt Barnes. J.D. Martinez and Rafael Devers have bounced back from rough 2020 seasons, and the Red Sox's offense once again looks like a Red Sox offense. Bonus: Chris Sale is about to begin his rehab assignment.
Milwaukee Brewers: A-
The Brewers were threatening to run away with the NL Central a week ago when they had an eight-game lead, and maybe even challenge the franchise record of 96 wins set in 2011 and 2018, but that has since been cut to four. All-Star starters Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta have carried the team, and All-Star closer Josh Hader was great until losing the final two games before the break to the Reds. Peralta has been the big breakout and, equipped with a new wipeout slider, turned into a dominant force. David Stearns made an astute trade in acquiring Willy Adames at the end of April and he not only has upgraded the defense at shortstop but torn the cover off the ball. The overall grade is dropped down due to Christian Yelich's power outage and Jackie Bradley Jr.'s offensive struggles.
Tampa Bay Rays: A-
Sure, they'd like to be in first place, but given the way they've had to piece together the pitching staff that is now down its top three starters from 2020 (Tyler Glasnow injured, Blake Snell traded, Charlie Morton left as a free agent), they'll take where they're at.
Keep in mind the Rays have played well in the second half in recent seasons (.620 winning percentage in 2019, .621 in 2018) and then factor in what you might get from Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena going forward and a division title, and a return to the World Series, are still in the books.
Houston Astros: A-
They lost nine of 10 early on, but they've basically been rolling ever since, including an 11-game winning streak in June. The offense has been the best in the majors, averaging 5.45 runs per game and ranking first in batting average, OBP and lowest strikeout rate.
The underrated rotation has been outstanding, with seven pitchers making at least nine starts and the worst ERA among them is 3.61. The only blip has been a shaky bullpen outside of closer Ryan Pressly, so look for the Astros to add there at the trade deadline and give Dusty Baker a shot at his first World Series title.
Chicago White Sox: B+
Playing in the majors' weakest division has helped the White Sox secure a big lead at the break, despite the injuries to Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert and, more recently, Nick Madrigal and Yasmani Grandal. The White Sox are 30-15 against the AL Central and just 16-24 against winning teams. Of course, they also haven't had their "A" lineup all season and it looks like Jimenez will return much sooner than originally expected.
The White Sox join the Red Sox as the only teams with five starters to make at least 15 starts, helping them to the best rotation ERA in the AL alongside the Astros, with Carlos Rodon emerging as an All-Star. Whatever you think of Tony La Russa's work so far, he has always been good with starting pitchers.
Cincinnati Reds: B+
A 9-2 run to begin July has vaulted the Reds from under .500 into the thick of the NL Central race, and while it's not necessarily a huge surprise that the Reds are in this spot, how they got here is. Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos are All-Star starters after raking all season, but Eugenio Suarez is hitting .175. They're 1-5 against the awful Diamondbacks, but 8-5 against the Brewers. Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray are a combined 5-14, but Wade Miley and Tyler Mahle are 14-7.
Three different relievers have at least six saves, but the best ERA of the three is Heath Hembree's 4.80, and the Reds' bullpen is 27th in the majors in ERA. In fact, of the 13 worst bullpen ERAs, only the Reds and Angels have winning records (and the Angels are just one game over .500). So it would seem if the Reds are to catch the Brewers it's all about a better bullpen in the second half.
Oakland Athletics: B
In typical A's fashion, they find a way. That 0-6 start when they were outscored 50-13 was scary, but they rectified that with a 13-game winning streak. Matt Olson has carried the offense, but they need to get more from Matt Chapman in the second half and upgrading at shortstop would be nice.
They've had good health in the rotation with their top four starters all making at least 18 starts and James Kaprielian now stepping up as the fifth starter. The bullpen hasn't been as airtight as it was last year, so they could add there. They've gone just 4-9 against the Astros, with just six games left head-to-head to make up ground, with those games coming in the final games of the season.
New York Mets: B
This grade might not be as high if the Mets were in a different division, but they've taken advantage of the mediocre NL East and begin the second half in first place (although they're actually just 19-18 within the division).
The offense has been near the bottom of the majors in runs all season, so the pitching has carried the way. Even then, as good as the top three starters -- Jacob deGrom (1.08 ERA), Taijuan Walker (2.50) and Marcus Stroman (2.75) -- have been, the Mets have still had to churn through 15 different starting pitchers. Getting Carlos Carrasco back will be huge. They've also had to churn through position players as Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo and J.D. Davis all had extended IL stays. If the offense starts hitting as expected, the Mets could run away with the division in the second half.
Seattle Mariners: B
The team is over .500 and just 3.5 games behind the A's for the second wild card. Winning and losing is the bottom line, but the underlying numbers aren't quite as impressive. They have a ridiculous 10-1 record in extra-inning games, so give the Mariners credit for their clutch performance, but that hardly seems sustainable.
While Logan Gilbert has looked good and J.P. Crawford has improved, it's not quite as rosy for some of the other young players the team is building around. Jarred Kelenic had to be sent back down to the minors after hitting .096, Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis suffered a knee injury, Justus Sheffield has struggled and Justin Dunn has had control issues.
Overall, the offense ranks last in the AL in batting average, OBP and slugging percentage.
Los Angeles Dodgers: B
We're grading them against the preseason expectations, so this is a friendly reminder that they're still on pace for 100 wins -- which is great, except they're in second place. The Dodgers have been better over the past month, going 22-10 since June 8, pounding 51 home runs in that stretch.
It should also be pointed out that they're 15-2 against the Diamondbacks and Rockies. Yes, that's taking care of business, but their 20-21 record against winning team suggests this isn't -- yet -- the powerhouse team we saw heading into the season. The Dodgers don't know when -- if ever -- Trevor Bauer will return. Do the Dodgers make a trade, especially with Clayton Kershaw on the IL with forearm inflammation? Can David Price move back into a starter's role?
San Diego Padres: B-
We're grading them against their preseason expectations, so this is a friendly reminder that they're still on pace for 92 wins -- which is fine, except they're in third place and six games behind the Giants. The inconsistency has been frustrating -- 8-3 to start the season, a 12-1 stretch in May, a 10-1 stretch to close out June, but then several stretches of mediocre play.
The Padres are third in the majors in ERA (behind the Dodgers and Giants), but the rotation hasn't been as dominant as desired, with Blake Snell (4.99 ERA) and Chris Paddack (5.38 ERA) both less than hoped for. The bullpen has the majors' lowest ERA, but also the most innings pitched, and you wonder if it can continue to carry such a heavy load. Oh, Fernando Tatis Jr.: Astonishing.
Detroit Tigers: B-
The key for the Tigers heading into 2021 was to see some growth from their starting pitchers. Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal scuffled out of the gate but have pitched much better the past two months. Spencer Turnbull threw a no-hitter and looked good until he went down with a forearm strain. Matthew Boyd was also better until he got injured.
In the minors, Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene have hit well and should enter 2022 as two of the top 10 prospects in baseball, and catcher Dillon Dingler has also raked. Throw in third overall pick Jackson Jobe and another high pick in 2022, and the Detroit rebuild is finally coming together -- the Tigers are the one rebuilding club that has made obvious strides so far.
Toronto Blue Jays: C+
On one hand, the Blue Jays have been one of the most exciting teams in the majors thanks to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s Triple Crown chase and All-Stars Marcus Semien and Bo Bichette. The rotation has been solid, with most of the starters meeting or exceeding expectations. And yet ... the Blue Jays remain well behind the Red Sox and Rays in the AL East. They've gone 14-8 in blowout games, but are 2-5 in extra-inning games and 6-10 in one-run games. They crushed the NL East in interleague play (13-2) but haven't fared as well within the division.
Cleveland Indians: C
Cleveland was just two games behind the White Sox in late June before a nine-game losing streak sent the team spiraling to .500, a stretch that coincided with the injury stints to Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale and exposed the lack of depth in the rotation. Cleveland needed a strong rotation because the offense has been predictably underwhelming, ranking 14th in the AL in both batting average and OBP, with the catchers in particular providing little offense and newcomers Eddie Rosario and Amed Rosario both around a .300 OBP. Bobby Bradley has been mashing home runs and Franmil Reyes is back, so maybe the lineup ticks up in the second half -- but Cleveland needs the rotation to step it up.
Los Angeles Angels: C
Make that an A+++++++ for Shohei Ohtani, an A for Jared Walsh and a lower grade for everybody else. It's actually surprising the Angels ended the first half a game over .500 since Mike Trout missed 53 games and Anthony Rendon missed 31. Both are currently on the IL as well. The rotation is as problematic as ever with a 5.04 ERA, 25th in the majors. Dylan Bundy and Jose Quintana were supposed to be the top guys and they're a combined 1-10 with an ERA approaching 7.00. They went 6-13 against Houston and Oakland, so while a healthy Trout and Rendon will help the offense, the pitching will have to find a way to improve to chase down a playoff spot.
Chicago Cubs: C
Oh, they teased us for a spell. Kris Bryant got off to an MVP start, the bullpen was unhittable for a couple of months, Patrick Wisdom was mashing home runs and the Cubs were tied for first place on June 24. Then it all fell apart quicker than a grounder through Leon Durham's legs. They lost 11 in a row. The offense cratered. The bullpen regressed. Jake Arrieta couldn't get anybody out. Javier Baez has a .284 OBP. So now the Cubs are who we thought they were, which means the front office might do some wheeling and dealing, with Bryant, Baez and Craig Kimbrel all potentially available.
Miami Marlins: C
The Marlins have been the tough-luck team of 2021, underperforming their expected win-loss record based on runs scored and allowed by eight wins. As you would expect, they've struggled in one-run games, going 9-20 (although they are 4-5 in extra-inning games).
The big positives have been rookie All-Star starter Trevor Rogers and rookie second baseman Jazz Chisholm, but Sixto Sanchez's season-ending shoulder surgery is discouraging and J.J. Bleday, the fourth overall pick in 2019, is struggling to hit .200 in Double-A. With Rogers, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez and then Max Meyer on the way, you can see the future unfolding behind a stellar rotation, but the offense needs more impact young hitters.
St. Louis Cardinals: C-
Look, it could be worse. The Cardinals have almost an entire rotation on the injured list -- Jack Flaherty, Carlos Martinez, Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson. And yet the offense has been the bigger issue than the pitching staff. Nolan Arenado has been solid and Tyler O'Neill has been a pleasant surprise, but even with O'Neill slugging .546 the Cardinals rank just 23rd in the majors in outfield OPS. Paul DeJong is hitting below .200 and Paul Goldschmidt's 115 OPS+ would be the lowest of his career. Never count out the Cardinals, but this is a .500 team that looks like a .500 team the rest of the way -- and the Cardinals haven't finished below even since 2007.
Philadelphia Phillies: C-
They're just 3.5 games behind the Mets, but even Phillies fans tell me this team has been unwatchable at times. That is mostly because of the same issues that have plagued the team for several years now: bad bullpen and bad defense.
Outside of Zack Wheeler, however, the stars have not been star enough, as Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto and Aaron Nola have been more good than great. Alec Bohm's struggles both at the plate and in the field are concerning. The Phillies haven't finished above .500 since 2011 and they're sitting at 44-44, but a winning season wasn't the goal here. With a win-now veteran club, they need to make the postseason. Maybe the 7-3 start to July is a sign of a big second half.
Washington Nationals: D+
Just like in 2019, the Nationals dug themselves an early hole with a 21-29 record at the end of May. They played well in June and had climbed over .500 and just two games out of first place, but then plummeted before the break with a 2-9 stretch against the Dodgers, Padres and Giants. Yeah, life is a little tougher outside of the NL East.
With Stephen Strasburg making just five starts and Patrick Corbin posting a 5.40 ERA, the rotation has been bad behind Max Scherzer. Any chance at a second-half run begins with a healthy Strasburg and a better Corbin (and more power from Juan Soto would be nice as well, although with a .407 OBP he's hardly their biggest problem).
Texas Rangers: D+
They've had some fun stories -- Kyle Gibson has been amazing, Adolis Garcia has come out of nowhere to mash a bunch of home runs, Joey Gallo has been red-hot of late -- and yet they're still bad and not very interesting and Gibson and Gallo are prime trade candidates. The offseason rolls of the dice on former All-Stars David Dahl and Mike Foltynewicz haven't panned out and Nick Solak hasn't hit.
On the farm, top prospects Josh Jung and Sam Huff are both just getting going after injuries, although first-rounder Cole Winn has pitched well at Double-A. Still, while the Rangers weren't expected to be playoff contenders, it's also hard to see that any progress has been made.
Baltimore Orioles: D+
Frankly, this grade would be even lower if not for Cedric Mullins emerging as one of the best players in the majors in the first half. Otherwise, the Orioles aren't really trying to win and aren't particularly trying to hide that fact, as evidenced by them still rolling out Matt Harvey in the rotation.
The news is better in the minors, where Adley Rutschman is looking like the top prospect in the game, Grayson Rodriguez is developing into one of the best pitching prospects and others like Gunnar Henderson and D.L. Hall have performed well.
New York Yankees: D+
It was tempting to give them an F given their preseason expectations, and that seemed fair when they fell to .500 at 41-41. Then they won five of six, including back-to-back shutouts against Houston, and the thought was maybe they had rescued their season just in time. Then came Sunday's gut-punch loss to the Astros, when the Yankees allowed six runs in the bottom of the ninth, and they head into the second half with that bitter taste. So we settled on a D+. They're 0-6 against the Red Sox and kick off the second half with eight of their first 10 games against them. Those eight games might tell us whether the Yankees claw back into at least the wild-card race or instead have a chance at their first losing season since 1992.
Atlanta Braves: D
Yes, the Braves are four only games out of first, so it's hardly a lost season, but it's been a discouraging first half that ended with Ronald Acuna Jr.'s season-ending torn ACL. They are now without their Opening Day outfield as Marcell Ozuna is out with two broken fingers, plus his return is uncertain due to the investigation into his arrest for domestic violence, and Cristian Pache is in Triple-A after hitting .111 in April. The team has resorted to playing former light-hitting Brewers shortstop Orlando Arcia in left field. The bullpen, so good last season, ranks 23rd in win probability added, and the rotation won't receive a second-half lift from Mike Soroka, as he's also out for the season. If Ozuna is allowed to play, maybe there's some hope, but without Acuna it's difficult to see the Braves making a run.
Colorado Rockies: D
I mean, they're not really any worse than everyone expected ... well, except for perhaps owner Dick Monfort. After the messy divorce with Nolan Arenado, Monfort was asked in February if he had considered firing GM Jeff Bridich. "I have not thought of firing Jeff, no," Monfort said. Two months later, before April was even over, Monfort fired Bridich.
The on-field product is lackluster and the lack of direction -- as indicated by the recent report that the Rockies informed other teams that they are not engaging in trade talks until after the All-Star Game (multitasking is hard!) -- is a reflection on Monfort, who had also quipped in February that he thought of firing himself. Rockies fans are waiting.
Pittsburgh Pirates: D
While you can point to some positives, most notably the All-Star performances from Bryan Reynolds and Adam Frazier, this is still a bad team in a weak division that hasn't really shown any progress from last season. So they're headed for another top-five pick in next year's draft.
Relative to expectations this isn't shocking or anything, although it's disappointing that Kevin Newman and Mitch Keller have struggled once again. The farm system was one of the highest rated entering the season, and it's been a mixed bag performance-wise but is still full of high-ceiling prospects, including new top overall pick Henry Davis (once he officially signs).
Kansas City Royals: D-
The Royals were a popular surprise pick heading into the season, but the rebuild has taken a step backward in 2021. The rotation ranks near the bottom of the majors in ERA as Brad Keller, Kris Bubic and Mike Minor have been hit hard. Top prospects Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar were called up and allowed 25 runs in 13 innings. Hunter Dozier and Jorge Soler were supposed to anchor the offense and are hitting under .200. On the bright side: Bobby Witt Jr. has excelled in the jump from rookie ball to Double-A and looks like a future star.
Minnesota Twins: F
The Twins started 5-2 and looked every bit like the team that was the preseason co-favorite in the AL Central alongside the White Sox -- certainly capable of winning a third straight division crown, especially with Byron Buxton looking like an MVP candidate. Then they lost nine of 10 and 13 of 15, Buxton got injured, and while we kept waiting for them to bounce back they haven't bounced back. Most discouraging: a 2-10 record against the White Sox.
Arizona Diamondbacks: F-
It's already hard to remember, but Arizona went 14-12 in April, then followed with two of the worst back-to-back months in modern major league history, going 5-24 in May and 3-24 in June, a stretch that included an all-time-record 24-game road losing streak. That might not have been rock bottom, as the Diamondbacks lost 22-1 to the Dodgers on Saturday.
The season has been so dispiriting that you have to wonder if a complete organizational reboot will be necessary, especially in a division where you have to figure out how to compete long term with the Dodgers, Padres and resurgent Giants.