On Friday, the 1,215th game of the 2021 MLB season was played. It's an odd number to take note of, but aficionados of baseball's annual schedule know it's the halfway mark for a season with 30 teams playing 162 games apiece.
That means we've got less 2021 baseball before us than we have behind us. A sad thought, but after last year's pandemic-clipped 60-game schedule, to be able to even think in these terms feels like a triumph. The old saying is that the baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint. Last season wasn't so much a sprint as it was a heat in a 100-meter high hurdle race, because every few steps there was some kind of obstacle.
This season feels like ... a baseball season. It has been eventful, as all seasons are, and this one perhaps more than most. There have been narratives about a return to dead-ball-era levels of offense (an exaggeration, as it turns out), a wave of injuries across the sport (sadly, this one is true) and the recent controversy over baseball's crackdown on sticky stuff. These things barely scratch the surface of what we've seen.
For a quick recap, and a peek ahead, let's comb through a half-season of results for the most eye-catching developments while sifting for evidence that might suggest what may yet happen.
Four surprises
1. The San Francisco Giants' MLB-best first-half record
The Giants were forecast to finish anywhere from third to fifth in the NL West, depending on where you looked. And as virtually everyone saw the division as a titanic two-team sprint between the Dodgers and Padres, even a third-place outlook in that division suggested also-ran status at best. Instead, San Francisco finished its first half in the division lead and was on pace to post the franchise's first 100-win season since the days of Barry Bonds.
Starter Kevin Gausman has been as good as anyone in the majors outside of the Jacob deGrom class. Buster Posey continued to cement his status as a future Hall of Famer level with a tremendous first half. But really, more than anything it's been a collective effort for the Giants, by design. Manager Gabe Kapler has used an MLB-high 2.43 pinch hitters per game in a constant search for matchup advantages. And GM Farhan Zaidi has kept the roster churning with near-daily transactions. It has been a high-wire act and a wonderful one to behold.
2. The New York Mets lead the NL East despite scoring the second-fewest runs in the National League
That the Mets led the division at the end of the half is no surprise. New York entered the campaign as co-favorites in the East with the disappointing Atlanta Braves. That it managed to do so with a Pirates-level of offensive output is kind of amazing. The Mets were forecast to field one of baseball's most potent attacks this year, once the offense-suppressing effects of Citi Field were accounted for. Such projections weren't a reach: Over the two seasons before this one, only the Dodgers had a higher OPS+ among NL teams. And that standing figured to be bolstered by the high-profile acquisition of star shortstop Francisco Lindor.
Injuries have played their part. Michael Conforto has missed more than 30 games, while Brandon Nimmo and J.D. Davis have missed over 50 apiece. Underperformance has played just as big a role, as Lindor hit .215 over his first 75 games and, when he has played, Conforto had an OPS+ of 88. Yet despite a top-heavy rotation, the Mets' pitching has been strong enough to get them into first place. That's good news, but the even better news: If the Mets' disappointing bats regress toward expectation, New York could be poised for a monster second half.
3. All of those no-hitters
No-hitters are kind of a random thing, though most of baseball's all-time greats have logged one or more during their careers. The list of hurlers who have accounted for this year's record-tying (for the modern era) seven no-nos would have been impossible to predict before the season, even if you had known there would indeed be seven no-hitters by the end of June.
Those pitchers (Joe Musgrove, Carlos Rodon, John Means, Wade Miley, Spencer Turnbull, Corey Kluber and a slew of Cubs) have shown the upside of living through a low-hit, low-contact era. It's not all bad. The bid for No. 8 began in earnest after the Cubs' combined no-no at Dodger Stadium on June 24, with Colorado's German Marquez taking a bid into the ninth inning in a game at Coors Field, of all places, against Pittsburgh on June 29.
4. The AL-best first half of the Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox probably were billed as being more in an in-between phase of contention than they actually were. As bad as 2020 was, there were many reasons for that related to the unwieldy nature of that unprecedented season that could be dismissed as flukes. Like, for instance, the .680 OPS posted by J.D. Martinez. Still, on paper, the Red Sox appeared to have a starting rotation woefully lacking in depth and impact performance, with Chris Sale still rehabbing his elbow injury and little done during the offseason to bolster that unit. The rotation hasn't been that great, but Boston has been so strong elsewhere that it's hard to avoid making a comparison to the 2013 Boston squad that rebounded from a 69-93 last-place finish in 2012 to a World Series title the very next season.
The Red Sox offense has bounced back in a big way, with Martinez returning to his pre-2020 form, Xander Bogaerts putting up career-season numbers and Rafael Devers solidifying his status as one of baseball's top run producers. But the standout unit during Boston's powerful first half has been an unsung bullpen led by Matt Barnes. Adam Ottavino, Hirokazu Sawamura and Rule 5 pick Garrett Whitlock -- credit GM Chaim Bloom with giving manager Alex Cora more than enough to win with. And while the rotation remains a sore spot, it's just one unit, and that gives Bloom and his staff a clear target for in-season improvements as we advance into baseball's winning time.
Four disappointments
1. Mike Trout's calf injury
Trout's ongoing injury problems are worth fixating on. He is this generation's Hank Aaron or Willie Mays or Mickey Mantle, yet it feels like we get to see so little of him. When Trout plays, he is Trout. At the time he went on the shelf, he was hitting .333/.466/.624, which would stack up as a career season for almost anyone, but is really just the high end of the range of what we've come to expect from Trout every season. It is soul-destroying that Trout hasn't played more than 140 games in five years. John Lee Hooker, if he were still with us, would have written a song about this.
Nevertheless, this entry in our first-half ledger is less meant to commiserate about Trout than it is to acknowledge how many injuries we've seen, many of them to the kind of players baseball needs on the field in order to sell the game. There's Trout. DeGrom has struggled to remain qualified for the ERA title, a category in which he is chasing history. Supremely talented Twins outfielder Byron Buxton looked like he had finally put it all together, but he can't stay off the IL. The Dodgers' Cody Bellinger had three homers in 23 games at the end of June and teammate Corey Seager has been out since May 15. The White Sox lead the AL Central despite the absences of Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal. The list is way too long.
2. The Minnesota Twins' tumble to the cellar
Minnesota was coming off two straight division titles and, at worst, started the season as co-favorites with the White Sox in the AL Central. Then Minnesota began the season 5-2 and it looked as if this might be the best version of this era's Twins yet. Then the bottom dropped out. Minnesota was as many as 14 games under .500 during the first half and spent much of it in the cellar of baseball's softest division. The offense has been roughly as strong as advertised despite poor first halves from regulars like Miguel Sano and Max Kepler, along with Buxton's extended absences. Still, the Twins' OPS+ (109) ranks fifth in MLB.
The pitching, on the other hand, has been a train wreck. The rotation (23% quality start rate) and the bullpen (58% of inherited runners have scored) share the blame. It feels like for much of the season, we've all just been kind of waiting for the Twins to turn the corner. But it's probably already too late, and the latest rumors suggest Minnesota will be looking to deal away players at the trade deadline.
3. The erratic offense of the New York Yankees
Since the Yankees emerged from their soft rebuild in 2017, they've ranked third, second, third and fourth by OPS+ across the majors. This year's position player roster features a group almost entirely comprising returnees from last season, with in-season acquisition Rougned Odor being the only newcomer who has seen significant action. There was absolutely no reason to suspect that the Yankees' offense would fall to a No. 14 ranking in OPS+, right at the MLB average.
Injuries have played a part, as they always seems to with this era's Yankees. Luke Voit, last year's MLB home run champ, was limited to 22 games and three homers through the end of June. That's been only part of the story for an infield that collectively ranked 28th in OPS. The fact that Odor has played as much as he has is a symptom, not a cure. The good thing about a collective slump is that statistically, you expect at least some collective regression to the mean, which in this case would be positive. It had better happen fast or else New York's string of 27 consecutive winning seasons might be in jeopardy.
4. The lackluster first halves of the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals
We're lumping these two NL powers together, although they have different stories. The Braves entered the season with a streak of three straight division titles and seemed to very much be in the midst of an extended window of contention. They didn't spend a day above .500, with an underperforming offense and a leaky bullpen shouldering equal amounts of blame.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals' string of 13 straight winning seasons is in jeopardy. The offense floundered under the weight of a .268 team BABIP (29th), and the starting rotation has not been able to overcome injuries, a lack of quality depth and an MLB-worst walk rate.
Four revelations
1. Carlos Rodon's rise to ace status after being non-tendered
After years of injuries and inconsistency, the White Sox seemingly threw in the towel regarding Rodon with their decision last December not to tender him a contract. Thus any team could have signed him, and one did -- the White Sox, who gave Rodon a one-year, $3 million deal in late January. Rodon figured to be in the mix for the last spot in what shaped up to be a strong rotation. Chicago's rotation has indeed been strong, and Rodon has been a big reason why, finally fulfilling the promise that spurred the White Sox to draft him third overall in 2014.
Rodon's slider has always been a weapon, but this year he's complemented that with a revved-up four-seamer, which he's thrown with more velocity and better location than ever before. On the strength of those two primary offerings, he posted a 2.37 first-half ERA and led qualifying AL pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings (13.1) and FIP (2.48). He also authored one of our seven no-hitters, missing out on a perfect game only because he hit Cleveland's Roberto Perez with a pitch when he needed just two more outs to complete the perfecto.
2. The maturation of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Expectations have been sky-high for Guerrero since the day he arrived in the majors. For good reason: He's the son of a Hall of Famer and was baseball's top overall prospect when he ascended to Toronto at the tender age of 20. His first two seasons weren't bad, considering his age, but a 109 OPS+ with 22 homers per 162 games and shaky defense is not what everybody had in mind. This season is what people wanted, and Guerrero has been so good that maybe the lofty expectations with which he entered the majors were not high enough.
Guerrero led the majors in all the percentage categories for much of the first half. His approach at the plate leaped a couple of levels and suddenly his tremendous bat-to-ball skills have been complemented by an elite level of discipline that has allowed Guerrero to post baseball's best on-base percentage (.440). And his elite raw power has turned into elite game power. In short, Vlad Jr. is now the complete package at the plate.
It won't be easy, but at the halfway point, Guerrero is positioned to make a run at baseball's first Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera in 2012. If he were to pull it off, Guerrero would become the youngest Triple Crown winner, beating the record Ty Cobb set in 1909 by about three months.
3. The proverbial deification of Jacob deGrom
More than ever, deGrom's starts have become appointment viewing. Across his last two starts of the Mets' first half, deGrom struck out 19 batters over 13 innings with one walk while posting a 3.46 ERA. And you would have thought the sky was falling. That's what happens when you go nearly three months of a season allowing just four earned runs.
DeGrom has raised his standards to near-impossible heights. Those last two perfectly fine outings raised deGrom's ERA from 0.50 to 0.95, which shows why even for him, a season-long run at Bob Gibson's hallowed 1.12 ERA from 1968 is a long shot. More realistic: Another NL Cy Young Award and a strong case to become the first pitcher to win an MVP award since Clayton Kershaw in 2014.
4. The ongoing wizardry of the Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers don't make any sense to anyone but themselves, but it really doesn't matter. With the mind-meld between GM David Stearns and best-in-baseball manager Craig Counsell remaining in effect, Milwaukee is gunning for a fifth straight winning season, a fourth straight postseason appearance and a run at the franchise's best-ever single-season win total.
Why don't the Brewers make sense? Their best player, former NL MVP Christian Yelich, has had his power bat sapped by back trouble and is slugging .399. And Milwaukee hit .222 -- as a team!
But the Brewers prevent runs with a great rotation, featuring perhaps the game's best trio in Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta. They play good team defense, which has been further buoyed by in-season acquisition Willy Adames. And Counsell remains an elite bullpen manager, using relief ace Josh Hader with such discipline that the lefty led all big league pitchers in win probability added despite throwing just 32⅔ innings.
Four signs of what's to come
1. Chris Sale's simulated inning
ESPN's Joon Lee had the story. Sale's comeback from Tommy John surgery is nearing completion. We can't take this for granted. Sale could have a setback and we know the Red Sox are going to err on the side of caution with him. And it's also possible that Sale doesn't return at peak effectiveness, as even successful returnees from Tommy John surgery often need a ramp-up period.
Still, this much remains true: Perhaps no leading contender has as big a need to upgrade a unit as Boston does with its rotation. And the solution to that problem might be the guy who, during the eight seasons in which he was a starter before getting hurt, ranked fourth among all pitchers in bWAR. Sale sees himself as the last piece in another Red Sox championship puzzle, and it's easy to see why.
2. Kyle Schwarber's unbelievable power surge
We know this wouldn't last, not at that level. During an 18-games-in-18-days stretch beginning June 12, Schwarber clubbed 16 homers and slugged 1.043. It was unbelievable to watch. What understandably got lost in the shuffle is the fact that the Nationals won 14 of those games, moving from nine games under .500 and last place in the NL East to, by the end of June, two games over .500 before running into the red-hot Dodgers' juggernaut over the weekend.
Schwarber's spree helped get the Nationals back in the race, but if Washington is going to replicate its worst-to-first turnaround from the 2019 title season, it'll probably happen because Juan Soto accelerates his so-so first-half pace and reminds us of why we compared him to a young Ted Williams during the offseason. It's not a matter of whether the Nats can get back in the race. They already have. This is a show we've seen before.
3. The 200-run night on June 30
In a collective feat that generated a lot of attention, on the last day of June MLB teams combined to score more than 200 runs in one day for the first time since Sept. 26, 2009. Well, it was just one day, but we are in the midst of baseball's annual high-water months for hitting. This coincides with baseball's crackdown on sticky stuff, which has had a measurable effect on spin rates. In the case of some pitchers, that effect has been dramatic. Still, we don't quite know what this will mean in terms of offense at the league level, as the numbers have ebbed and flowed with each passing week.
What we do know is that teams hit more homers and score more runs during the warmest months, so for a few weeks at least, we can look forward to more offense than we saw for most of the first half. Maybe not 200 runs per night, but at least that outburst reminded everyone that big run totals remain possible even in today's all-or-nothing offensive landscape.
4. Fernando Tatis Jr.'s recent walk rate
The Padres entered the 2021 season as baseball's "it" team and Tatis as baseball's "it" player. The first half was at times a trying one for San Diego. The injury story for the Padres has been even worse than it has been elsewhere, as San Diego has a wide lead over the rest of MLB in total days lost to the IL. In that context, the Padres' 50-36 record and strong third-place standing in the NL West at the end of June were impressive results. Still, a team that fell just a tick shy of leading the majors in OPS+ last season has featured a more inconsistent -- though still very good -- attack this time around.
There has been nothing inconsistent about Tatis, who led the NL in homers and slugging in the first half. The latter category has been truly awe-inspiring, as Tatis looks like he's going to make a run at becoming the first qualifying player to slug at least .700 since Bonds in 2004. It's funny we mention Bonds, because ever since he broke baseball in the early 2000s, every time pitchers start to avoid a hot hitter, we say that the hitter is getting the "Bonds treatment."
Well, that's what may or may not describe what is happening to Tatis. He has already walked more this season than he did in either of his first two seasons, and while the 2020 season was clipped, an early-season shoulder injury means Tatis currently has a similar number of plate appearances to last year. He has also drawn four of his six career intentional walks this season. The walk trend has been accelerating: Over the last two weeks of June, Tatis drew 12 walks and posted a .558 on-base percentage.
The percentage of strikes Tatis has seen hasn't changed much. For the season, only wild-swinging Cubs shortstop Javier Baez has seen a lower percentage of pitches in the zone. It is possible that Tatis has simply gone to another level in terms of plate discipline. If that's the case, the rest of baseball is really in trouble.