The All-Star break was a welcome respite from some of the gloomy stories that clouded the first half of the baseball season -- the record rate of strikeouts and low batting averages, grip substances, the long list of injuries to star players that ended with Ronald Acuna Jr.'s season-ending torn ACL.
For a couple of days the focus shifted completely to Shohei Ohtani, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr. and some of the other remarkable first-half performers. Not a word about Spider Tack. Heck, the American League even won the All-Star Game while recording just three strikeouts, the lowest total for a winning team since 1962.
As we look ahead to the rest of the season, let's take some of the storylines that made the first half fun and see what that means for the second half.
Shohei Ohtani: Can he hit 60?
Tim Kurkjian called Ohtani's first half the greatest in baseball history. My colleague Joon Lee suggested it's time to move beyond the Babe Ruth comparisons.
"This dude is doing something that is unprecedented in the history of sports," he said recently on Around the Horn. This deserves to be a conversation topic on "Good Morning America," deserves to be on the cover of Time magazine. He's a national story that deserves to be talked about beyond SportsCenter."
Indeed, as others have pointed out, Ruth's time as a hitter and pitcher were short-lived, essentially part of the 1918 season and the first half of 1919. In 1918, he began the season as a pitcher, not appearing at all in the field in April. As he began playing more first base and left field in May and June, he pitched less, starting just once in June and three times in July. He did pitch regularly in August, with the Red Sox in a pennant race, although the season ended in early September due to World War I. In 1919, he started just once in August and twice in September as he shifted to a full-time hitting role.
So, yes, doing this for a full season is unprecedented. Ohtani finished the first half with 16 home runs in 23 games, including this 459-foot blast on July 4 that made one young fan a fan for life:
🥲🥲🥲 pic.twitter.com/vuJo2NSmnu
— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) July 4, 2021
It's not fair to expect Ohtani to keep hitting home runs at this rate, but with 33 home runs in 89 games, he's on pace for 60. The only players besides Ruth and Roger Maris to reach that number are the three tainted sluggers of the steroid era -- Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. Ohtani won't challenge Bonds' record of 73, but chasing Maris' 61 will make his season even more historic than it's already been.
Prediction: The most optimistic projections peg Ohtani finishing with 54 home runs. That would still be a huge total, the most in the AL since Jose Bautista also hit 54 in 2010. You have to wonder if or when fatigue will set in. Getting Mike Trout back should help provide more support in the lineup. I'll say Ohtani stays hot and finishes with 56.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Chasing the Triple Crown
Guerrero finished the first half second in the American League to Ohtani with 28 home runs, first with a .332 batting average and first with 73 RBIs. If Ohtani slows down, the Triple Crown is in reach -- a feat only Miguel Cabrera has accomplished since 1967. His 2012 campaign pushed him past Mike Trout in a heated MVP debate. Aside from chasing the Triple Crown and battling Ohtani for MVP honors, Guerrero is also the leader of an exciting and powerful Blue Jays lineup that features fellow All-Stars Marcus Semien, Teoscar Hernandez and Bo Bichette, plus a finally healthy George Springer.
The Blue Jays are eight games back of the Red Sox in the AL East, but just 4.5 games behind the A's for the second wild card. They actually have a better run differential than the Red Sox, but they've gone 2-5 in extra-inning games and 6-10 in one-run games. They play the Red Sox in two of their first four series of the second half, so we will learn early if they can make a late push for a division title. We're also waiting to learn if the Blue Jays will be able to leave Buffalo and return to Toronto. They've gone just 19-20 at home, so a return to the Rogers Centre could provide a needed boost. The Blue Jays are hoping to receive an exemption from the Canadian government that would allow them to start playing in Toronto on July 30, the start of a 10-game homestand against Kansas City, Cleveland and Boston.
Prediction: I just pegged Ohtani with 56 home runs, so I can't go Triple Crown with Guerrero. Let's give him two-thirds of it, although he's locked in a tight RBI battle with Rafael Devers (one behind) and Ohtani (three behind). As for MVP, the William Hill sportsbook at Caesar's has Ohtani the favorite at -300 and Guerrero at +220. I agree. Ohtani wins it with his unicorn season. As for the playoffs, the Blue Jays fall short, with the Rays and A's holding their current wild-card positions.
Fernando Tatis Jr.: Can he go 40-40?
Tatis' season has been nearly as remarkable as Ohtani's and Guerrero's as he leads the National League with 28 home runs and 20 steals despite missing 19 games. He has produced 4.3 WAR in 74 games, a 9.0 pace over 155 games, and has a chance to beat Tony Gwynn's 8.6 WAR in 1987 for best in Padres history. Only four players have hit 40 home runs and stolen 40 bases -- Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez and Alfonso Soriano -- and none of them went 50-40, which Tatis has a chance to accomplish. Soriano was the last to go 40-40, in 2006.
How great has Tatis been? Earlier this season, Freddie Freeman's son Charlie told his dad to start playing better so he would make the All-Star Game -- so Charlie could meet Tatis. Charlie got his wish:
❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ pic.twitter.com/i4k3GuqSad
— Chelsea Freeman (@chelseafree5) July 13, 2021
Prediction: The Padres have 69 games remaining, so if Tatis plays every game -- he might need to, given the state of the NL West race -- and homers at his current pace and steals at his current pace, he ends up with 54 home runs and 38.6 steals. It's going to be close. One minor concern: He has a .234 OBP in July with just one walk in 11 games, after hitting an absurd .323/.415/.753 in May and June. He needs to get his plate discipline back to draw a few more walks to give him more steal opportunities. Anyway, I'm not betting against him. Let's go with 52 home runs and 41 steals -- our third season for the ages.
Jacob deGrom: Can he become deGOAT?
His stats are something you might see in high school: 7-2, 1.08 ERA, 146 K's and 11 walks in 92 innings, all while holding opponents to a .126 batting average. This is not normal. Check the marks for the starting pitchers he's chasing:
ERA: Bob Gibson, 1.12 in 1968 (modern record).
K/9: Gerrit Cole, 13.82 in 2019 (deGrom is at 14.28). Shane Bieber was 14.1 in 2020, but that comes with a short-season asterisk.
Lowest BA: Pedro Martinez, .167 in 2000 (deGrom is at .126). Trevor Bauer had a .159 average allowed in 2020.
WHIP: Pedro Martinez, 0.74 in 2000 (deGrom is at 0.54).
K/BB: Phil Hughes, 11.63 in 2014 (deGrom is at 13.28).
Prediction: Beating Gibson's ERA will be almost impossible, as we saw in deGrom's final three starts before the break when he allowed seven runs over 20 innings and saw his ERA more than double from 0.50 to 1.08. He'll need a string of scoreless gems to have a shot at Gibson, but many of the other marks are in clear jeopardy if deGrom can stay healthy and get to the 162-inning qualifying standard. DeGrom also has a shot at MVP honors. He's the slight favorite right now over Tatis, -110 to +130. Similar to the AL, it feels like a two-man race. I'll say deGrom finishes with a 1.44 ERA and edges out Tatis for MVP honors as the Mets hold on to win the NL East.
Boston Red Sox: The defense rests
I live in Connecticut so I end up watching the "local" teams on a regular basis. I liked Boston's signing of Enrique Hernandez as a free agent in the offseason. He had been the longtime utility guy for the Dodgers, a good defensive player all over the field with some pop, especially against left-handed pitching, exactly the kind of player good teams have coming off the bench. What has been a revelation is Hernandez's play in center field, a position he has essentially taken over now on a full-time basis. Hernandez leads all center fielders with plus-9 defensive runs saved, including maybe my favorite defensive play of the first half:
⚠️ WARNING ⚠️
— Red Sox (@RedSox) July 1, 2021
Field work ahead pic.twitter.com/Oupsmu55y2
Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom's first season in Boston didn't go so well, so he returned to a familiar blueprint from his days in Tampa Bay: Good outfield defense. With Hernandez in center, Alex Verdugo in left and Hunter Renfroe in right, the Red Sox rank second in the majors in defensive runs saved in the outfield, behind only the Rays. The Red Sox open the second half with a big road trip against the Yankees and Blue Jays, followed by hosting those two teams at Fenway. Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez are carrying the offense, but Hernandez's defense has been a key addition.
Prediction: The Red Sox get Chris Sale back, trade for Anthony Rizzo and hold off the Rays to win the division.
Houston Astros: Playing the heel
Enduring boos and vitriol all season from fans across the country, the Astros have responded in glorious fashion, leading the AL West and leading the majors in runs per game -- even after losing George Springer in free agency. The best sequence of the season came in the final two days before the break. On Saturday, Aaron Judge homered for the Yankees, the only run in a 1-0 victory, and then trolled Jose Altuve as he rounded third base, grabbing at his jersey. Judge was mocking Altuve for his actions from the 2019 ALCS after Altuve's series-ending walk-off home run, when he didn't want his jersey ripped off, leading to conspiracy theories that he had a buzzer hidden under his uniform. (Judge's deadpan explanation for his gesture: "They keep the roof closed here, it's pretty chilly, so I just let my team know to button up a bit.")
On Sunday, however, Altuve got his revenge, capping a dramatic six-run rally in the bottom of the ninth with a three-run homer:
We heard it was cold, so we turned it up a notch.#ForTheH pic.twitter.com/tcC5xcRcRc
— Houston Astros (@astros) July 11, 2021
A little bad blood is good for the game and the Yankees and Astros have ratcheted up their rivalry. Unfortunately, they don't play again in the regular season, but Altuve's home run sent the ultimate message: The Astros have embraced their villain status.
Prediction: FanGraphs gives the Astros 87% odds of winning the division and 16% of winning the World Series -- highest in the AL. I do think they have the most well-rounded team in the AL with the best lineup and deepest rotation (six starters have an ERA of 3.61 or lower). Look for them to add a couple of relievers at the trade deadline to reinforce the bullpen in front of closer Ryan Pressly, although they will be able to use their rotation depth in relief in October as well. Right now, Houston is my pick to win the AL.
New York Yankees: Team on the spot
No team faces more pressure to have a hot start to the second half than the Yankees, who also now enter the second half with positive COVID tests on their roster. The AL favorites before the season, they have stumbled along, going 12-14 in April and 12-14 in June. How punishing was that final loss before the break? MLB teams are 493-2 this season when leading by four-plus runs entering the ninth inning. The Yankees are responsible for both losses. The supposedly powerful lineup has never gotten going, even though Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have been relatively healthy. The Yankees rank 13th in the majors in OPS and 20th in runs per game. Aroldis Chapman has been a disaster of late, which is why Chad Green was closing Sunday. They begin the second half with 11 of their first 13 games against the Red Sox and Rays. That takes them right up to the July 30 trade deadline. While all indications are the Yankees will look to add instead of subtract, their best hope is a wild card.
Prediction: FanGraphs still views the Yankees as a strong team, giving them not only a 9% chance to win the division, but 41% to make the playoffs, suggesting a big second-half surge is possible. I'm skeptical, especially given Gleyber Torres' ineffectiveness at the plate and the problems in left and center field. Never count out the Yankees, but I feel they're more likely to finish under .500 -- which hasn't happened since 1992 -- than make the playoffs. In fact, with a first-place finish unlikely, it's worth noting the Yankees have just one first-place finish since 2012. As Yankees fans will let you know: That's unacceptable. My projection: 84-78 and no postseason.
San Francisco Giants: Can they win the West?
My colleague Alden Gonzalez breaks down the NL West between the Giants, Dodgers and Padres right here, so check that out. What I'm wondering: If the Giants do somehow hold off the Dodgers and Padres, would this be the biggest division upset of all time? At the start of the season, FanGraphs gave the Giants 0.2% odds of winning the division, forecasting 76 wins while the Dodgers looked like a 100-win powerhouse.
Subjectively, my five biggest surprise division winners:
1. 2008 Rays. They had finished 66-96 in 2007 and had never lost fewer than 91 games in their 10-year history. They were in the same division as the Red Sox, the defending World Series champions, and the Yankees.
2. 1991 Braves. Over the previous three seasons, they had lost 106, 97 and 97 games and hadn't finished above .500 since 1983. They went from worst to first, kicking off a dynasty that featured 14 consecutive playoff appearances.
3. 1969 Mets. The Mets had never had a winning record, but in the first year of divisional play went from 73-89 to 100-62 to shock the baseball world -- and then upset the heavily favored Orioles in the World Series.
4. 1993 Phillies. The Phillies had one winning season between 1987 and 2000 and it produced a memorable World Series team that improved from 70-92 to 97-65.
5. 2011 Diamondbacks. After losing 92 games in 2009 and 97 in 2010, they finished 94-68 -- and wouldn't finish over .500 again until 2017.
Given the predicted strength of the Dodgers and that it might take 100 wins to take the West, I think the Giants would at least move into the top three. FanGraphs puts their current odds at just 15%, but that feels like it undersells them a bit. They lead the majors in home runs, they score runs, they prevent runs. Kevin Gausman (1.73 ERA) and Anthony DeScalafini (2.68 ERA) have turned into a ferocious 1-2 punch. The Giants travel to Dodger Stadium on Monday for a four-game series and then host the Dodgers July 27-29. They have only one more series against each other after that, in early September, so those seven games loom large.
Prediction: The Dodgers come back to win the division. Even without Trevor Bauer -- who is on leave through July 27 with an unknown future -- the Dodgers have the deepest roster and most talent in the majors. They win 103 games, soaring past the Giants (97 wins) and Padres (96 wins). The Giants beat the Padres in the wild-card game, but lose to the Dodgers in the NLDS. DeGrom beats the Brewers twice in the other NLDS, but the Dodgers beat the Mets in NLCS, setting up a 2017 rematch between the Astros and Dodgers. Astros in seven. Sometimes the villain wins.