The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres had the look of teams that could potentially be the two very best of the sport when the 2021 season began. At the start of the second half, neither even leads its division.
That's how dominant the National League West has become.
The Dodgers and Padres have basically been as advertised, but the San Francisco Giants, a team in transition, went into the All-Star break with the best record in Major League Baseball, creating a logjam at the top of the NL West that should spill into an exhilarating final stretch of the regular season.
The Giants, Dodgers and Padres all fall within the top six in run-differential and the top eight in winning percentage. Over the past 20 years, there has been only one instance -- with the 2015 NL Central -- when three teams from the same division finished within the top five winning percentages, a realistic outlook for 2021.
The Dodgers (99.5% playoff odds, according to FanGraphs), Giants (91.5%) and Padres (91%) all possess highly favorable odds of reaching the postseason. But only one can win the division and thus avoid the dreaded one-game playoff.
"It's gonna be exciting the last couple months of the season trying to chase down the division," said Justin Turner, a key cog in a Dodgers team that has practically owned the NL West for nearly a decade. "It should be a lot of good baseball."
Below is a look at where these teams stand heading into the second half.
San Francisco Giants (first place)
Record: 57-32
Run differential: +116
Chances of winning the division: 15.3%
Why they'll win the division: All of you waiting on the Giants to suddenly come back down to Earth can stop. By this point, regardless of what the expectations might have been coming into this season, it's safe to say this is simply a good team. The Giants lead the majors in home runs, are tied for first in outs above average and rank second in ERA. Kevin Gausman and Anthony DeSclafani lead a deep and thriving starting rotation that ranks third in the majors in fielding independent pitching, one that could only be strengthened by the potential additions of Logan Webb and Tyler Beede. The Giants have led this division for more than 60% of the season, and they're currently doing so even though Evan Longoria, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt and Tommy La Stella reside on the injured list. They all should be back relatively soon, which means the Giants probably won't let up.
Why they won't win the division: Posey, Longoria, Belt and Brandon Crawford have combined to average a .917 OPS. In other words, they're collectively Rafael Devers. None are younger than 33, all were deemed to have been past their primes when the season began, and it's fair to wonder if they can possibly keep this up in the second half. Perhaps the same can be said about DeSclafani and Alex Wood, reclamation projects who were obtained on one-year contracts and have combined for a 3.12 ERA in 190 2/3 innings. The Giants don't boast the star power of the Padres and Dodgers, at least not with players who remain at their physical peaks. But they combat that with a knack for throwing quality strikes and working deep counts. Those traits tend to promote sustainability.
What they need: Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has talked about a desire to acquire more starting pitching depth, but what this team could really use is another big arm for the back end of its bullpen. Jake McGee (0.88 WHIP) and Tyler Rogers (1.47 ERA) have formed a nice ninth-inning pairing. But the Giants have blown 17 saves, just five shy of a notoriously bad Philadelphia Phillies bullpen. And can you imagine someone like Craig Kimbrel on this staff?
Most important second-half player: La Stella signed a three-year, $18.75 million contract over the offseason but has played in only 25 games because of nagging hamstring and thumb injuries. In his absence, the Giants have received only a .652 OPS from the position of second base, sixth worst in the majors. Donovan Solano, who has received the bulk of the playing time there, has struggled. When healthy, La Stella forms the strong side of a platoon with Solano and brings elite bat-to-ball skills that can give this Giants lineup another dimension.
Stat to monitor: The Giants have lost six of nine games to the rival Dodgers this season. The majority of those games have been awfully close, but they're losses nonetheless. And that's highly relevant considering they'll play them seven more times before the end of July.
Los Angeles Dodgers (second place, two games back)
Record: 56-35
Run-differential: +142
Chances of winning the division: 72.0%
Why they'll win the division: Because they're the Dodgers, they've won it eight years in a row, and their surplus of talent still rivals the best in the game. The Dodgers ended the first half with the best run differential in the sport even though Cody Bellinger has played in only 34 games, Corey Seager has been out since May 15 and Mookie Betts, who has been a bit banged up, hasn't played at an MVP level. If those three get healthy and play to their potential in the second half, the Dodgers might reach another level and take the NL West once again.
Why they won't win the division: The Dodgers don't have enough starting pitching. Think about how preposterous that sentence would have sounded at the beginning of the season. The Dodgers began with seven -- seven! -- bonafide starting pitchers. But Dustin May has undergone Tommy John surgery, Tony Gonsolin has been inconsistent, David Price has spent the entire season occupying a bullpen role, Julio Urias has blown past his previous career high in innings and, most importantly, Trevor Bauer has been placed on administrative leave while facing allegations of sexual assault, which MLB and the Pasadena (California) Police Department are still investigating. Bauer has not been punished, but the allegations against him are serious enough to make one wonder if he will pitch again this season.
What they need: Yes, the Dodgers could probably use another starting pitcher -- and perhaps not just a depth piece. Price is going to be stretched out again in order to return to the rotation. With Price, Urias, Gonsolin, Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw -- assuming he is healthy -- the Dodgers still have a formidable group of five (and maybe six, if top prospect Josiah Gray emerges). But is it better than that of the Giants or the Padres? You can reasonably argue against that. The problem, however, is that starting pitching is expected to be especially difficult to come by this year, given the industry-wide need for depth to cover all the injuries coming off the COVID-19-shortened season.
Most important second-half player: Amazingly, once again, it's ... wait for it ... Kershaw. Yes, in his age-33 season, with more than 2,500 major league innings under his belt, Kershaw is still being counted on to anchor the Dodgers' rotation. It wasn't supposed to be like this, but circumstances have forced it to be. The problem: Kershaw is presently on the IL with forearm inflammation and will stay shut down through the All-Star break. The seriousness is not known at this moment, but you can't just bank on him being OK. The Dodgers need him healthy, pitching at or near the level of his resurgent season in 2020 to form a formidable top-of-the-rotation combo with Buehler. Otherwise, the Dodgers' outlook is dicey.
Stat to monitor: The Dodgers, who have been especially good at maximizing defensive positioning over these past couple of years, rank 25th in outs above average at minus-13 this season. If you watch enough of their games, it's clear that they have been sloppy defensively. More of Bellinger in center field, which frees up Chris Taylor to move around, should improve that. But Gavin Lux has had his inconsistencies defensively, and Seager and Turner don't provide great range on the left side of the infield, so it's hard to see this dramatically improving in the second half. The Dodgers might just need to pitch and hit well enough to overcome it.
San Diego Padres (third place, six games back)
Record: 53-40
Run-differential: +75
Chances of winning the division: 12.8%
Why they'll win the division: The Padres have as much -- if not more -- depth and talent as any other team in the sport. Their starting rotation is deep, their bullpen has been lights out, their lineup is dynamic, and yet, it doesn't seem as if they have played to their full potential. Their offense has stolen more bases than any other by a hilariously wide margin, and their hitters don't chase all that much, yet the Padres rank 12th in slugging percentage. That, one would think, will change. And while they rank third in the majors in ERA -- behind only the Giants and Dodgers -- there have been a couple of pitchers who have underperformed and could be poised for second-half turnarounds. Just as important: The Padres have proven, most notably in their matchups with the Dodgers, that they're aggressive, unafraid and poised. They're ready for this.
Why they won't win the division: The Padres have a handful of players who have underperformed, and the margin for error in this division is too thin for teams to overcome much of that. Among the underachievers: Eric Hosmer, who appeared to have found something during a breakout 2020 season; Jurickson Profar, who hasn't been the utility weapon the Padres hoped for; Blake Snell, who hasn't resembled the top-of-the-rotation starter he was acquired to be; and Chris Paddack, who has had a hard time replicating the success of his rookie season in 2019. The Padres clearly have the talent to overcome that and be good. But they'll need those guys to ultimately capture their first division title since 2006.
What they need most: Another bat, ideally someone who can play the outfield corners and first base, so that they have a fallback option outside of Hosmer, Profar and Wil Myers. Myers, who bats right-handed, and Hosmer, who bats left-handed, have reverse splits this year. Profar, a switch-hitter, hasn't been good from either side of the plate. In short: Any reliable bat might do. Myers, Hosmer and Profar are all capable of getting hot, of course, but another option would be ideal.
Most important second-half player: Before a digestive issue landed him on the IL last week, Snell, the American League Cy Young Award winner in 2018, had a 4.99 ERA through his first 16 starts with the Padres and held the second-highest walk rate among pitchers with at least 70 innings. Snell entered this season with hopes of getting the opportunity to consistently pitch deeper into games, partly a reaction to famously being pulled early from Game 6 of the World Series last October. But he has lasted into the sixth inning only twice this season. Snell's pitch efficiency is a continual problem. So is his waning success against opposing right-handed hitters, who own a .852 OPS against him this year.
Stat to monitor: The Padres' bullpen leads the majors -- not just the NL, where the presence of an opposing pitcher makes it easier to navigate through lineups -- in innings pitched. And one has to wonder how those high-leverage relievers will hold up for the inevitability of meaningful games in August and September, especially given the innings jump necessitated by the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season. Five Padres relievers rank within the top 40 in appearances this season. Ten others, most notably Drew Pomeranz, currently reside on the IL.