This month's MLB Awards Watch update is a bit of a changeup, as we're focusing exclusively on one category: Most Valuable Player.
Why? Mostly because the races in both leagues are shaping up to be among the most intriguing we've had in some time. That's not just because of the star power of the names involved, or how closely arranged the pecking order seems to be right now. It's mostly because of how, well, unusual the landscape looks right now.
In the American League, you have a two-way superstar (Shohei Ohtani) going toe-to-toe with a breakout young hitter (Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) who is poised to make a run at the league's Triple Crown.
In the National League, the leaderboards in the advanced metrics are dominated by starting pitchers, led by history-chasing Mets ace Jacob deGrom. But you also have two of the game's brightest young stars -- Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ronald Acuna Jr. -- building up strong MVP résumés.
As we enter the early days of summer, we look at how both races are going, with Bradford Doolittle breaking down the AL and David Schoenfield examining the NL, along with numbers from Doolittle's AXE formula.
AL MVP
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Shohei Ohtani, Angels (148)
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (145)
3. Gerrit Cole, Yankees (138)
4. Carlos Correa, Astros (135)
5. Matt Olson, Athletics (133)
The case for Ohtani: The combination of categories in which Ohtani ranks among AL leaders is by itself historic and unprecedented. On the hitting side, he's there in homers, RBIs and stolen bases, all while OPSing in the high-.900s. On the pitching side, he has a 2.58 ERA and a chance to lead his club in strikeouts. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the only players who have led their team in homers (as a hitter) and strikeouts (as a pitcher) in the same season are Walter Johnson (1910, 1915, 1918), Ed Walsh (1908) and Babe Ruth (1916). And none of them had more than three homers when they did it.
According to Baseball-Reference.com, Ohtani ranks 15th in position player WAR and eighth in pitcher WAR. FanGraphs, meanwhile, has him ranked about the same as a hitter, but only 27th as a pitcher. Still, the combination of these factors puts Ohtani in the statistical range as the best all-around producer in the AL this season. And the narrative aspect of this is off the charts. He has become what he was billed to be: The closest thing to Babe Ruth that we've ever seen.
The case for Vlad Jr.: Guerrero's value is derived entirely from his bat, so his edge in hitting over Ohtani has to outstrip the added value Ohtani provides as a pitcher. It's possible. According to Baseball-Reference.com, Guerrero's 77 runs created this season are 17 more than any other player in the AL and 22 more than Ohtani. He's got a 75-point edge over Ohtani in average and a 91-point edge in on-base percentage. While Ohtani has a better isolated power figure, Guerrero's huge advantage in average means that he still owns the better slugging percentage.
If it's close, it could come down to context. The Blue Jays and Angels have similar records, but Toronto has a 79-run advantage in differential and owns much better playoff probabilities. Thus, if Guerrero can maintain his pace, he'd be putting up huge numbers for a team playing to get into October and would be the biggest reason that's happening. Guerrero and Ohtani are currently very close in contextual stats such as win probability added and championship probability added.
While it would seem as if nothing could match the narrative appeal of what Ohtani's doing, if Guerrero were to break Ty Cobb's record as the youngest-ever Triple Crown winner, that'd be pretty good, too.
Who else has a chance? For most of the season, AXE has had Gerrit Cole in the same range as Ohtani and Guerrero, and if he catches fire that could again become the case. However, Carlos Correa has been coming on strong since we last checked in, and if Houston can continue on its current dominant course, that could get very interesting -- especially since you have to imagine that there are a few MVP voters out there who aren't going to give Correa the nod in a close race because of lingering ire related to the sign-stealing mess.
The final word: There's always an ebb and flow to the AXE leaderboards, but Guerrero and Ohtani have consistently crowded near the top all season. If both stay healthy, they are having amazing seasons and will pull away from the pack. Then it becomes a head-to-head battle and, oh man, what a fun one it is. Right now, it's too close to call.
NL MVP
Award Index (AXE) leaders
1. Jacob deGrom, Mets (152)
2. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (141)
3. Kevin Gausman, Giants (137)
4. Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (135)
5. Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves (134)
The case for deGrom: He's doing things we've never witnessed before. It's not just the 0.50 ERA through 72 innings and his current streak of 30 consecutive scoreless innings, but the ridiculous level of dominance that goes with that run prevention. He has held batters to a .113 average and .148 on-base percentage, held them to a .087 average with runners in scoring position, and has struck out 46.8% of the batters he has faced and 73.6% of batters when he gets to two strikes.
It's not just the dominance. He has become must-watch TV, much like recent MVP pitchers Clayton Kershaw in 2014 and Justin Verlander in 2011 -- a reminder that, yes, pitchers can win the MVP Award. He could probably succeed just throwing his 100 mph fastballs that he paints with the precision of laser-guided technology, but he balances that with an unhittable slider and changeup. Not since Pedro Martinez has a pitcher utilized such a lethal combination of velocity with two plus-plus off-speed pitches.
On top of that, he's hitting .407 with six RBIs -- more RBIs than earned runs allowed. And if you saw him snag that line drive in his last start, he's a Gold Glove candidate as well. Needless to say, no pitcher has ever won the Cy Young Award, MVP Award, Silver Slugger and Gold Glove in the same season. Then there's what he has meant to the Mets, a team riddled with injuries and a stagnant offense, yet residing in first place. He leads the National League in Brad's AXE formula, he leads in Baseball-Reference WAR, he leads in FanGraphs WAR. Don't overthink this: 0.50.
The case for Tatis Jr: Look, it's going to be impossible to beat deGrom if he posts a 0.50 ERA all season, but if he falters even a little bit it's going to be hard to beat a player who leads the NL in home runs and is tied for the lead in stolen bases entering Thursday. Oh, he also leads in slugging percentage, OPS, adjusted OPS and has driven in 50 runs and scored 54 in just 58 games. Imagine the numbers if he hadn't missed 19 games with a shoulder issue and a COVID sideline. All the while he has carried a Padres offense that otherwise hasn't been as strong as it was a season ago.
As great as deGrom has been, he's out there only every fifth day, and even that's being generous as he has missed a few starts and had a few others cut short by injury concerns. He has averaged barely five innings a start since the beginning of May, so although he has been great, he's doing it in limited innings. Because of that workload, he might not even lead the NL in pitching WAR (Gausman, Wheeler and Woodruff are all ahead in Baseball-Reference's pitching-only component).
Tatis, assuming he stays healthy, is out there every day, putting up highlight-reel plays at the plate and on the bases. This should matter as well: In 10 games against the Dodgers, he has hit .268/.362/.732 with six home runs, five steals and 13 runs as the Padres have gone 7-3 against their NL West rivals. He's got the numbers, he's got the excitement and he's got the clutch. That's MVP material.
The case for Acuna Jr.: Those are two nice write-ups, but much of what applies to Tatis also applies to Acuna: He has 20 home runs, just two behind Tatis, and has matched him with 15 steals, so he could also end up leading the league in home runs and stolen bases. He leads the league in runs, as well as in FanGraphs WAR among position players, and he has performed his best in high-leverage situations when games are closest, hitting .298/.397/.809 with 23 RBIs in 47 at-bats. And he's not exactly lacking in the excitement department either.
Another factor to consider in the Tatis versus Acuna comparison: Tatis has made 16 errors, which puts him on pace to soar way past 30 errors, something only one player has done in the past decade (Marcus Semien had 35 in 2015). Tatis' errors have led to 12 unearned runs allowed, so the game-specific context of his defense is even worse than his minus-7 defensive runs saved.
Who else has a chance? Gausman is 8-1 with a 1.49 ERA and has pitched 24 more innings than deGrom. If he stays close to that level and deGrom has a couple of mediocre games, that's going to push those ERA totals closer together and Gausman will have the big edge in workload. Then there is what the Giants are accomplishing, leading the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West. While a team's place in the standings isn't as significant as it once was in MVP voting, this would be an upset of epic proportions and that could help sway some voters into Gausman's camp (teammate Brandon Crawford could also benefit here).
The final word: With the Braves struggling to remain at .500, it feels like a deGrom-Tatis showdown right now, but don't overlook Gausman. It's possible in a typical season -- you know, when somebody isn't putting up a 0.50 ERA -- Gausman would be the leading candidate right now. If he ends up pitching 50 more innings than deGrom, the Cy Young race -- and MVP race -- could end up being very interesting. And, hey, Gausman is hitting .192, so he also has hit for a higher average than he has allowed (.157).