Now that Trevor Bauer is heading to the Los Angeles Dodgers, Marcell Ozuna is returning to the Atlanta Braves, and Nelson Cruz is going back to the Minnesota Twins, all of this winter's top 10 free agents are finally off the board. But good players are still available the week before players start reporting to spring training.
Let's check in on 10 of the most intriguing names still out there and where they fit best.
Justin Turner (Kiley McDaniel's ranking: 12)
Best fit: Dodgers
Other possibilities: Brewers
The Dodgers still feel like the favorite here, although that is less of a sure thing after they plucked down $40 million on Bauer for 2021. The Dodgers have options at third base as well in Edwin Rios, who slugged .645 in 76 at-bats for the Dodgers in 2020 and hit 31 home runs at Triple-A in 2019, plus Chris Taylor. They will also want to re-sign Corey Seager, who is eligible for free agency after 2021 and will require a raise on his $13.75 million salary.
That leaves the possibility of Turner signing somewhere else, and the Brewers make the most sense. They did just sign Kolten Wong, which pushes Keston Hiura to first base, but the options on the left side of the infield are Orlando Arcia, Luis Urias and Daniel Robertson. Turner would be a great fit, allowing Urias and Arcia to battle for the shortstop gig. The Brewers remain about $33 million under their payrolls for 2019 and 2020, so there is room to sign Turner and still not approach those figures.
Trevor Rosenthal (18)
Best fit: Phillies
Other possibilities: Astros, A's, Cubs, Braves
After Tommy John surgery in 2018 and a disastrous 2019, Rosenthal rebuilt his value in 2020 with 23⅔ dominant innings: allowing 12 hits, two home runs, eight walks and 38 strikeouts, all while averaging 98 mph on his fastball. That should give him the opportunity to close somewhere.
The Phillies did sign Archie Bradley and trade for Jose Alvarado, but Rosenthal makes a lot of sense there as the ninth-inning guy, pushing Bradley back into a setup role. The A's are a sleeper, as they lost closer Liam Hendriks to the White Sox and haven't done anything this offseason.
James Paxton (20)
Best fit: Blue Jays
Other possibilities: Cardinals, Phillies, Twins, Giants, Brewers, Cubs
Even after the Blue Jays re-signed Robbie Ray and traded for Steven Matz, Sportsnet reported they are still looking for more starting pitching, focusing more on somebody on a shorter deal rather than a long-term contract. That fits Paxton, who made just five starts in 2020 while returning from back surgery.
The Blue Jays might not want to add another starter with unpredictable results or health, but Paxton has the best upside of any remaining free-agent starter with a career 3.58 ERA and 394 strikeouts over 311 innings in 2018-19. Without a sure No. 2 starter behind Hyun-Jin Ryu, taking a chance on Paxton fits. Plus, he's Canadian!
I would love to see the Twins make a run here, although their payroll may be maxed out after re-signing Nelson Cruz and giving $8 million to J.A. Happ. The Twins are going to be in a dogfight with the White Sox for the AL Central title. A healthy Paxton is a pitcher you would feel comfortable giving the ball to in the first game of a playoff series or as the third starter behind Jose Berrios and Kenta Maeda.
Jake Odorizzi (21)
Best fit: Cardinals
Other possibilities: Mets, Angels, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Giants, Phillies
Like Paxton, Odorizzi was limited in 2020, making just four starts because of a couple of non-arm injuries (blister problems and then a comebacker that hit him in the chest). From 2014 to 2019, however, he averaged 165 innings with a 3.88 ERA. FanGraphs currently ranks the Cardinals' rotation just 23rd in projected WAR. Dakota Hudson is out for the season after Tommy John surgery, Miles Mikolas is returning from surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his right arm, and Carlos Martinez hasn't been a full-time starter since 2017. Odorizzi would provide much-needed reliability for a rotation currently relying heavily on 39-year-old Adam Wainwright.
The Mets are an interesting secondary option here. Given their pursuit of Bauer, they have money to spend. Even without Bauer, FanGraphs projects them as the fourth-best rotation in baseball, mostly thanks to Jacob deGrom. Once you get past deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Marcus Stroman, however, things get a little dicey with David Peterson, Noah Syndergaard's return from Tommy John in June or so, and Joey Lucchesi. Odorizzi would solidify the fourth spot and allow a more cautious return for Syndergaard.
Jackie Bradley Jr. (22)
Best fit: Phillies
Other possibilities: Astros
The Phillies are the clear best fit, ranking 29th in projected value in center field, with Scott Kingery, Roman Quinn and Adam Haseley the current candidates for playing time. The Phillies ranked 22nd in the majors in defensive runs saved in center field over the past three seasons and 21st in wOBA, so they could use some stability on both sides of the ball.
Bradley had his best offensive season since 2016, hitting .283/.364/.450, but that production would be a bonus, especially since he outperformed his expected numbers given his quality of contact. The Phillies would be signing him for his defense and as a bat to plug in at the bottom of the lineup.
The Astros are another good fit, with Myles Straw their current starter in center. He's a burner with absolutely zero power, a better fit as a fourth outfielder/pinch runner than a starter on a championship team.
Yadier Molina (29)
Best fit: Cardinals
Other possibilities: Blue Jays, Marlins
A return to St. Louis remains the most likely result, but the problem seems to be that Molina wants to be paid like he's still an elite player. It's a lot like the situation the Yankees faced with Derek Jeter late in his career, when the Yankees overpaid him to be more franchise icon than big contributor.
Molina still has value behind the plate, of course, and he's not a complete zero as a hitter. There have been some Blue Jays rumors out there, and I'd love to see him working with that young Marlins rotation, but St. Louis still feels like the landing spot on a two-year deal, where he can perhaps mentor up-and-coming Ivan Herrera in 2022.
Taijuan Walker (31)
Best fit: Cubs
Other possibilities: Blue Jays, Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Red Sox
After missing most of two years because of Tommy John surgery, Walker returned at full strength in 2020, compiling a 2.70 ERA over 11 starts with the Mariners and Blue Jays. The advanced metrics weren't nearly as impressive, however, most notably a low swing-and-miss rate (13th percentile). The Blue Jays liked what they saw, and he remains a viable alternative if they don't sign Paxton. The Phillies just signed Matt Moore, but Walker could still work there, pushing Vince Velasquez to the bullpen and letting Moore and Spencer Howard battle for the fifth slot.
But the best fit would be the Cubs. The recent move for Joc Pederson indicates the Cubs may be willing to spend a little this offseason, and their rotation right now is currently not good (although the projections system likely underrated Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies because they're not big strikeout pitchers). Anyway, the back of the Cubs' rotation features Alec Mills, Trevor Williams, Adbert Alzolay and maybe rookie Brailyn Marquez later in the season. A week ago, the Cubs might have still ranked as the favorites in the NL Central but really need another piece in the rotation now, with the Cardinals adding Nolan Arenado and possibly a starting pitcher.
Rick Porcello (59)
Best fit: Cardinals
Other possibilities: Giants, Angels, Rays
Porcello's 5.55 ERA over the past two seasons is ugly, and his main attribute at this point is his durability. He has made at least 27 starts every season of his career (other than 2020). Is he worth anything to a potential playoff contender? Maybe not, but there is value in knowing a pitcher can make 30 starts -- even if Porcello is not much better than replacement level.
The Cardinals could use that kind of starter and project as one of the best defensive teams in the majors (something Porcello did not have with the Mets in 2020).
Adam Duvall (69)
Best fit: Marlins
Other possibilities: Mariners, A's, Mets
Duvall has hit .248/.307/.545 over the past two seasons with 26 home runs in 310 at-bats. His defense is fine in a corner outfield. There are certainly worse outfielders who will be regulars in 2021, although his best fit is probably as the short side of a platoon.
In looking at teams that need power in the outfield, the Marlins are a logical fit -- only Cleveland's outfielders hit fewer home runs in 2020. The Marlins will probably want to play their young outfielders, however, and even a few million is probably more than they're willing to spend. Duvall could be a placeholder in Seattle until Jarred Kelenic arrives, then become trade bait. The A's lost Robbie Grossman in free agency, and Stephen Piscotty and Khris Davis didn't hit at all last season. Duvall would also be a perfect bench piece for the Mets to give them a right-handed outfield bat, although adding Albert Almora for his glove might eliminate the room for Duvall.
Mark Melancon (73)
Best fit: Braves
Other possibilities: Phillies, Astros, A's, Cubs, Marlins
Melancon isn't a favorite of the analysts because of his below-average fastball and low whiff rate, and he's several years past his big seasons with the Pirates. But he has a lot of experience closing, he has a 3.40 ERA over the past two seasons and he does a good job of keeping the ball in the park. He might not be your ideal closer, and the strikeout rate was lower than ever in 2020.
We're basically looking at the same list of teams as for Rosenthal. Will Smith is probably the Braves' default closer right now, but he allowed seven home runs in 16 innings in 2020, plus the big one to the Dodgers' Will Smith in Game 5 of the NLCS that basically turned that series around. (He also gave up 10 home runs in 2019 with the Giants.) A return to Atlanta makes sense.