Let's predict 2021 MLB All-Star rosters for AL and NL

Warning: Do not try this at home. It's time for our annual Way-Too-Early All-Stars roster predictions, and this year was more difficult than ever.

I ended up with a headache trying to figure out whom to cut from the National League pitching staff (sorry, Max Scherzer), which shortstops to leave off (sorry, Trea Turner), and whether Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton will actually remain healthy enough to warrant selection (sorry, Yankees fans).

If you do wish to try this on your own, remember the roster rules: 32 players per league, including 20 position players (the American League must feature two designated hitters) and 12 pitchers (at least three must be relievers). And don't forget: Every team must have a representative.

Here are my full picks for the American League and National League squads.

National League starters

Catcher: J.T. Realmuto, Phillies

Realmuto is a two-time All-Star, but 2021 would be his first starting assignment and, as his new $115.5 million contract indicates, he is the top all-around catcher in the majors. Via FanGraphs, Realmuto's 12.4 WAR over the past three seasons leads all catchers, with Yasmani Grandal behind him at 11.6. No other catcher is within six wins of those two. Realmuto isn't necessarily a lock here, however, as Dodgers backstop Will Smith has raked .268/.363/.574 in 91 career games and could outperform Realmuto, at least at the plate.

First baseman: Freddie Freeman, Braves

Freeman had long been a model of consistency before taking his game to a higher level to win NL MVP honors in 2020. Yes, short season and all that, but he posted career bests in strikeout rate and walk rate (he walked more than he whiffed). That new level of bat control is one reason he can contend for another MVP trophy in 2021.

Second baseman: Ozzie Albies, Braves

An All-Star in 2018 and a Silver Slugger winner in 2019, Albies missed a month of 2020 with a bone bruise in his right wrist but still hit six home runs in 29 games. Remember, Albies belted 75 extra-base hits in 2019. Somehow, he's still only 24. There is competition here from Arizona's Ketel Marte, who struggled last year after finishing fourth in the 2019 MVP voting, and .300 hitter Jeff McNeil, who should get a regular turn at second base for the Mets after playing more left field in 2020.

Third baseman: Nolan Arenado, Cardinals

There might be some concerns here after his shoulder injury in 2020 and with the move away from Coors Field, but Arenado said earlier this week that he expects to be back to normal in 2021 and I'm not worried about him leaving Denver.

From 2015 to 2019, he averaged 36 home runs on the road per 600 at-bats. Maybe his home numbers will decline, but getting away from Coors should help his road numbers. I think we'll see a typical Nolan Arenado season -- and that would mean a sixth All-Star appearance.

Shortstop: Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres

With the trade of Francisco Lindor to the Mets, National League shortstop is absolutely loaded -- it reminds me of the American League back in the early 2000s when you had Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra, Miguel Tejada and Omar Vizquel (in 2002 they somehow squeezed all five of them on the All-Star team). Tatis no doubt is the favorite to win the fan vote, but he's also my choice on merit -- by the thinnest of margins over Lindor, Trevor Story, Corey Seager and Trea Turner. All five are reasonable MVP predictions -- oh, and Dansby Swanson actually had the highest bWAR of all of them in 2020, while Javier Baez was the All-Star starter in 2019.

Tatis' ceiling, however, is ridiculous. He has hit 39 home runs in 143 career games, has stolen 27 bases and was much improved in the field as a sophomore (just three errors). Yes, he has to iron out his consistency at the plate (he hit .313 with a 1.055 OPS in July/August, then slumped to .208 in September), but from 2019 to 2020, he cut his strikeout rate by 6% and improved his walk rate. His hard-hit rate and average exit velocity: 100th percentile. His top sprint speed: 98th percentile. Excitement level: Off the charts.

Outfielder: Mookie Betts, Dodgers

The only potential issue when Betts went to the Dodgers was how his power would play up outside Fenway Park - he loved peppering doubles off the Monster (he hit 41 more doubles at home than on the road during his Red Sox career). Well, Betts hit 16 home runs in 55 games -- although after hitting at least 40 doubles five seasons in a row, he hit just nine, so some of those doubles turned into home runs. He's a true seven-tool player (hit, hit for power, run, field, throw, control the strike zone, durability) and he will once again be near the top of the MVP list.

Outfielder: Juan Soto, Nationals

He hit .351/.490/.695 in 47 games, and it wouldn't shock me if he also does it over 150-something games. That's a Ted Williams season, my friends. Soto led the league in batting average, OBP, slugging, OPS and OPS+ -- something Williams did five times.

Outfielder: Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves

He hit 41 home runs in 2019, and his pace last season was 47 over 155 games. Oh, he also steals bases and is a plus defender in right field. There is 50-homer potential here if can cut down on his strikeouts.

The weird thing about Acuna's hitting: In his career, he has hit just .259 against four-seam fastballs (and just .225 the past two seasons, including .200 in 2020). He does have a big hole at the top of the strike zone, similar to Mike Trout early in his career. Let's see whether Acuna can make an adjustment on those high fastballs.

DH: Christian Yelich, Brewers

I don't know what happened either. After Yelich led the NL in batting average, slugging and OPS in 2018 and 2019, I fully expect him to bounce back. He's too good and too young (29) to struggle again like he did in 2020. Although it now appears the NL will not have the DH in 2021 -- I can't wait to see those .086-hitting pitchers at the plate! -- there will be one in the All-Star Game, and Yelich gets the nod.

Starting pitcher: Jacob deGrom, Mets

If you're debating deGrom vs. the field for a Cy Young prediction, I'll take the field since there are so many outstanding starters in the NL. If you're picking just one pitcher, deGrom is the favorite, after finishing third in 2020 following wins in 2018 and 2019. He has a 2.10 ERA over those three seasons, has held batters to a .200 average despite a generally lousy defense behind him and led the NL strikeouts the past two seasons.

National League reserves

C - Will Smith, Dodgers
1B - Pete Alonso, Mets
2B - Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks
3B - Manny Machado, Padres
3B - Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pirates
SS - Francisco Lindor, Mets
SS - Trevor Story, Rockies
SS - Corey Seager, Dodgers
OF - Bryce Harper, Phillies
OF - Cody Bellinger, Dodgers
OF - Mike Yastrzemski, Giants

After mashing in two partial seasons, it will be interesting to see what Smith can do over a full season. ... Alonso got off to a slow start when the season resumed, but then hit 10 home runs in September. He gets the nod over Paul Goldschmidt and Brandon Belt, who thrived last year with the new park dimensions in San Francisco. ... As with Yelich, I don't know what happened to Marte as his power disappeared and his walk rate plummeted. Like Yelich, look for a bounce-back season, and he squeezes out McNeil. ... Machado's numbers have been a little all over the place in recent seasons, but he was more comfortable in his second season in San Diego and actually finished ahead of Tatis in the MVP voting. I think Tatis' success will help Machado remain focused. The older brother doesn't want the younger brother to beat him, right? ... Expectations will be sky-high for Hayes after he hit .376/.442/.682 in September. He keeps his rookie status for 2021 and he's a good two-way player and the best All-Star candidate for the Pirates.

OK, all those shortstops: I found room for three more of them. This assumes Story remains with the Rockies, as he's their sole representative on this squad. The Rockies assured earlier this week that they expect Story to open the season with the team. That doesn't mean he'll still be there come All-Star time. ... Turner gets left off after hitting .335/.394/.588 in 2020, but was under .300 the previous three seasons. ... Harper is a six-time All-Star, although he didn't make it in 2019, his first season with the Phillies. His numbers were much better last season, especially a big drop in strikeout rate (26.1% to 17.6%, the lowest of his career). ... Bellinger followed up his MVP season with a ho-hum .789 OPS, plus he had right shoulder surgery after dislocating it in Game 7 of the NLCS, so there is some risk here, but his power and defense should still make him one of the best all-around outfielders in the league. ... Yastrzemski has been one of the majors' most pleasant surprises the past two seasons and was second to Betts among NL outfielders in FanGraphs WAR in 2020.

National League pitching staff

SP - Trevor Bauer, Dodgers
SP - Yu Darvish, Padres
SP - Walker Buehler, Dodgers
SP - Luis Castillo, Reds
SP - Jack Flaherty, Cardinals
SP - Sixto Sanchez, Marlins
SP - Kyle Hendricks, Cubs
SP - Brandon Woodruff, Brewers
RP - Josh Hader, Brewers
RP - Devin Williams, Brewers
RP - Drew Pomeranz, Padres

After winning the Cy Young with the Reds, Bauer's second career All-Star appearance should come in his first year as a Dodger. ... Darvish figured something out in the second half of 2019, and since then he's 12-7 with a 2.40 ERA and a 211/21 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 157 2/3 innings. The Padres were smart to acquire Victor Caratini as well from the Cubs, as he caught all 12 of Darvish's starts in 2020. ... Buehler has been a beast in his postseason career, with a 2.35 ERA over 11 starts, and we've been waiting for that pitcher to show up 30 times in the regular season. I think it'll happen in 2021. I left off Clayton Kershaw, mostly because the Dodgers might play it safe with his workload, but he posted a 2.16 ERA in 2020. ... Castillo is the lone Reds player here, but he's the real deal. His adjusted ERA over the past two seasons is 10th-best in the majors. ... Flaherty never get going in 2020 with the stop-and-start nature of the Cardinals' season, although nine of the 22 runs he allowed came in one start. I'm banking on something more like the pitcher who had a 0.93 ERA over his final 16 starts of 2019.

Three starter spots left. Sanchez represents the Marlins, understandable if you saw him firing smoke down the stretch as a rookie (actually, he also retains rookie status for 2021), while Hendricks represents the Cubs. Get this: Since the first All-Star Game in 1933, Hendricks' 3.12 ERA ranks fourth among all pitchers with at least 1,000 innings who never made an All-Star Game (and two of those ahead of him are relievers). He is first in adjusted ERA. ... That leaves my last spot to Woodruff -- over Scherzer, Aaron Nola, Max Fried, Mike Soroka, Zack Wheeler, Zac Gallen, Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, German Marquez, Stephen Strasburg and maybe a few others. I really wanted to include Dinelson Lamet but remain concerned about the sore elbow that knocked him out of the postseason. ... We add two more Brewers in the bullpen, although Hader struggled with home runs in 2019 and walks in 2020. ... Williams won Rookie of the Year honors after striking out a ridiculous 53 batters in 27 innings. ... Pomeranz has dominated since moving to the bullpen in the second half of 2019 (74 K's in 45 innings) and should be the Padres' closer.

American League starters

Catcher: Yasmani Grandal, White Sox

The best of a weak crop, although Sean Murphy is a young catcher on the rise and Mitch Garver had a monster season at the plate in 2019. I don't know whether Grandal would win the fan voting, but he excels at the little-not-so-little things like pitch framing and drawing walks.

First baseman: Luke Voit, Yankees

Jose Abreu won MVP honors after leading the AL in RBIs, hits, slugging percentage and total bases, but his .987 OPS was 169 points higher than his total over the previous two seasons. Voit led the AL with 22 home runs and there isn't exactly a lot of stiff competition here -- par for the course for this position, which had nine different starters in the past nine All-Star Games (some good, like Cabrera; some questionable, like Justin Smoak).

Second baseman: DJ LeMahieu, Yankees

Hard to pick against LeMahieu after what he's done the past two seasons for the Yankees, hitting a combined .336/.386/.536. He has put up big numbers and does it with great bat control -- he's been the second-toughest hitter in the game to strike out since joining the Yankees yet still ranked in the 86th percentile in average exit velocity. He does turn 33 in July, but there is no reason to expect a sudden downturn in his production.

Third baseman: Anthony Rendon, Angels

Cleveland fans are going to criticize this pick since Jose Ramirez finished second in the MVP voting, but Rendon tore it up after a slow start -- he hit .103 his first 12 games after suffering an oblique injury in summer camp -- hitting .333/.435/.573 over his final 40 games.

The position is much deeper than just those two, although Alex Bregman, Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, Yoan Moncada and Josh Donaldson all struggled or battled injuries in 2020.

Shortstop: Carlos Correa, Astros

The overall depth here takes a hit with Lindor being traded to the National League and Marcus Semien likely moving to second base with the Blue Jays, but there are still multiple strong candidates.

I realize Correa has yet to put it all together all at once -- his two best offensive seasons were 2017 and 2019, but he missed time both seasons -- but we saw in the postseason (.362, 6 home runs, 17 RBIs in 13 games) what he can do when he's healthy and locked in. With the sign-stealing scandal in the rearview mirror, I'm looking for a huge season as he heads into free agency.

Outfielder: Mike Trout, Angels

He hit .281/.390/.603 and some people acted as if it was a "bad" season. LOL.

Outfielder: George Springer, Blue Jays

Springer earned All-Star starts in 2017 and 2019 and was about the only Astros player who didn't struggle in 2020. He has the third highest projected WAR among AL outfielders via ZiPS, behind Trout and Judge, so he feels like a reasonable and safe pick here.

Outfielder: Eloy Jimenez, White Sox

OK, maybe ZiPS doesn't rate him this year and, yes, he won't win any points for his defense, but All-Star Games are mostly about the best hitters, and this kid can slug. He hit .296/.332/.559 in 2020 after hitting 31 home runs as a rookie. There is 45-homer potential here if he can just do even a little better at controlling the strike zone and curbing the excessive chase rate. He also can also learn to lift the ball more to take advantage of his ridiculous raw power.

DH: Yordan Alvarez, Astros

Alvarez is one big reason my colleague Brad Doolittle projects the Astros with the third-best lineup in the majors. Alvarez played just two games 2020 before undergoing arthroscopic surgery on both knees. That's worrisome on somebody so young, and I hope this doesn't turn into a Kal Daniels situation. (Daniels came up with the Reds in 1986, hit .320 as a rookie, .334 with 26 home runs in 1987 and led the NL in OBP in 1988, but bad knees wrecked his career.) If healthy, Alvarez is a legitimate Triple Crown candidate based on his rookie numbers (.313/.412/.655, 27 home runs in 87 games).

Starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole, Yankees

No disrespect intended here to Shane Bieber, who was the best pitcher in baseball in 2020 (I thought he deserved AL MVP honors), but Cole is my AL Cy Young pick. Actually, let me look up the projections ... ZiPS projects Lucas Giolito as the best pitcher in the AL (Giolito, Cole and Bieber rank 1-2-3 in the majors, with deGrom fourth). Bieber and Giolito benefit from playing in a weaker division while Cole had some home run issues last season, but look for 300 strikeouts and 20 wins in his first full season in pinstripes.

American League reserves

C - Salvador Perez, Royals
1B - Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
2B - Brandon Lowe, Rays
3B - Jose Ramirez, Cleveland
3B - Alex Bregman, Astros
SS - Tim Anderson, White Sox
SS - Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox
OF - Kyle Tucker, Astros
OF - Luis Robert, White Sox
OF - Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles
DH - Nelson Cruz, Twins

After missing all of 2019, Perez had an insane 150 at-bats in 2020, slugging .633. He started five straight All-Star Games from 2014 to 2018, which to be honest was mostly a reflection of the state of AL catching given Perez didn't top a .300 OBP in any of those seasons. ... I could put Matt Olson at first base to represent the A's, but I smell a Guerrero breakout in 2021 as he combines his ability to hit the ball hard with above-average contact ability to hit .300 with power (and he's in better shape, which should help his defense). ... Lowe doesn't look like he should be a power hitter, but he has hit 31 home runs in 489 at-bats over the past two seasons. ... Ramirez and Bregman get the nod as the backups at third base, which could be shortchanging Devers, who showed up to summer camp out of shape and started slowly. He led the majors with 90 extra-base hits in 2019 as a 22-year-old. ... I don't know how Anderson does it with his approach, but the hits keep falling. He also seems to be adding more power, and the defensive metrics improved last year. ... Bogaerts makes it on merit but also as Boston's only representative, beating out Gleyber Torres (he'll bounce back) and Bo Bichette, although we are all excited to see what he can do over a full season.

Yeah, good luck picking the outfield reserves. I'd love to put Judge here as he has averaged 7.8 WAR per 150 games over the past three seasons, but you just can't rely on his health. ... The same goes for Byron Buxton, who runs everything down in center field and has slugged .534 the past two seasons but also has trouble staying on the field (and posted a .267 OBP in 2020). ... So the first nod goes to Tucker, who did a little bit of everything in his first extended playing time last season and I expect will improve on his .268 average. He could be a 30-30 candidate if the Astros turn him loose on the bases. ... Robert is sort of a Buxton II, with elite defense (he won the Gold Glove) and power. He crushed it in August (.298, 9 HRs), and then the league figured him out in September (.136, 1 HR). ... Mountcastle is my Orioles rep after hitting .333 in 35 games (keeping his rookie status for 2021). The defense is suspect and he doesn't walk much, but he can hit. ... Cruz just re-signed with the Twins and he won't keep going forever, but he'll keep going in 2021.

American League pitching staff

SP - Shane Bieber, Cleveland
SP - Lucas Giolito, White Sox
SP - Hyun-Jin Ryu, Blue Jays
SP - Tyler Glasnow, Rays
SP - Zach Plesac, Cleveland
SP - Framber Valdez, Astros
SP - Marco Gonzales, Mariners
SP - Tarik Skubal, Tigers
RP - Liam Hendriks, White Sox
RP - Jose Leclerc, Rangers
RP - Jake Diekman, A's

Bieber and Giolito are the easy calls here, and you have to include Ryu, who finished second in the Cy Young voting with the Dodgers in 2019 and third in 2020 with the Blue Jays. Getting him to 180 innings, as he did in 2019, is always a concern given his injury history, but he has a 2.30 ERA over the past three seasons (56 starts). ... Glasnow remains more tantalizing ceiling than finished product, but he averaged 14.3 K's over his 11 starts in 2020. Let's hope the Rays turn him loose given a normal season and he makes 30 starts and pitches 175-plus innings. ... I could be overreacting to Plesac's eight good starts (2.28 ERA) in a weak-hitting division, but the control is real (six walks in 55 1/3 innings); the slider/changeup combo gives him a strikeout weapon against both righties and lefties; and never bet against a Cleveland starter. ... If you saw Valdez in the postseason, you can see why I like the upside here. He was one of the best in the majors at limiting hard contact, and his curveball is one of the best in the game, as batters hit just .124 against it.