The last time we saw Blake Snell in a baseball uniform was Game 6 of the World Series and the Hook Heard 'Round the World, when Kevin Cash removed him after 73 pitches even though Snell was dominating the Dodgers. The next time we see him he could be wearing a new jersey if the Tampa Bay Rays follow through on trade rumors for the 2018 Cy Young winner.
The start against the Dodgers showcased why every team might be interested in pursuing Snell: He pitched at the level he reached during his second-half run to the American League Cy Young Award, when he went 9-0 with a 1.09 ERA over his final 10 starts. Snell threw 29 fastballs against the Dodgers and they didn't put a single one in play. He kept them off balance by commanding all three of his off-speed pitches, and of the 35 swings the Dodgers took in the game, they missed 16 of them.
Snell, 28, is under contract for three more seasons, at $11.1 million in 2021, $13.1 million in 2022 and $16.6 million in 2023. It's a bargain if Snell pitches even remotely close to his 2018 level and still a reasonable deal if he pitches like he did the past two seasons, when he posted a 3.96 ERA over 34 starts. The Rays have already lost Charlie Morton to the Braves in free agency, Yonny Chirinos is likely out for the season after Tommy John surgery and Brendan McKay had labrum surgery in August, so with the club's rotation depth in disarray, why would the Rays trade a potential ace who is locked up through 2023?
Well, it is the Rays, so it's still about money and churning the roster to bring in younger, less expensive talent. The upcoming season presents new financial hurdles for the Rays, however. Because of the COVID-19-shortened season in 2020, the Rays didn't receive their usual revenue-sharing check, an estimated $45-50 million in a normal year. Depending on what happens with the upcoming season, there might be no revenue sharing in 2021. The impact of the economic losses from 2020 and 2021 could be felt for several years.
"I think it's going to be three to five years to where we're able to sort of get a clear understanding of the new normal," principal owner Stuart Sternberg told the Tampa Bay Times last week. Thus, the possibility of a Snell trade to trim the payroll.
Complicating any trade is how other teams will evaluate Snell. In his Cy Young season, he missed a month with shoulder fatigue. In 2019, he had arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow and missed nearly two months before returning late in the season. In 2020, the Rays handled him very carefully once the season finally started, as he didn't go more than 70 pitches until his fifth start.
If you're still wondering why Cash took Snell out after 73 pitches, look at his numbers each time through the order in 2020 (including the postseason):
First: .135/.242/.226
Second: .281/.346/.529
Third: .303/.324/.636
That third time through includes only 34 batters faced, but Cash had seen what happened all season, and that's why he took out Snell. OK, it's hard to evaluate 2020 with COVID-19 and everything else. Let's see how Snell fared in 2019:
First: .237/.308/.353
Second: .238/.293/.446
Third: .254/.343/.373
OK, how about his Cy Young season?
First: .159/.237/.247
Second: .172/.249/.283
Third: .226/.293/.436
The point here is this affects Snell's trade value. He was the best pitcher in the league in 2018 but not as dominant the past two seasons, with some concerns over his durability and ability to pitch deep into games. Yes, five innings is the de facto standard now for a starting pitcher, but there is a big difference in a pitcher who can give 180 to 200 innings a season or one who gives you 150. It's all about risk assessment on both ends. The Snell of 2018 is a difference-maker -- whether for a team trying to return to the World Series or for a team trying to get there.
Before imagining trade scenarios, I like to look at comparable trades. Looking back at the past few years, here are top starters in a similar pay bracket as Snell with at least two seasons of team control remaining:
• Chris Sale: The most comparable to Snell in that he was a hard-throwing lefty with three years left on a team-friendly deal (Sale was to make $38 million from 2017 to 2019), with the caveat that Sale had been dominant for five seasons when the White Sox traded him to Boston. That combination of contract and durability allowed the White Sox to acquire a top-five overall prospect in Yoan Moncada and one that was top-25 or so at the time in Michael Kopech.
• Sonny Gray: Gray had two-plus years left of team control when the A's traded him to the Yankees in midseason of 2017; he had a 3.42 career ERA with the A's at the time, including 3.43 in 2017, but had missed time in 2016 with a forearm strain. The A's acquired three prospects, with James Kaprielian, the Yankees' first-round pick in 2015, ranking as the top guy going to Oakland, although he was injured at the time.
• Jose Quintana: He was traded by the White Sox in midseason of 2017 with three-plus years of team control and was owed about $33 million -- a relative bargain for a pitcher who had averaged 4.4 WAR from 2013 to 2016. That control and length of control forced the Cubs to surrender a top-five overall prospect in Eloy Jimenez, plus Dylan Cease.
• Gerrit Cole: The Pirates sold low when they traded Cole to Houston with two years left until free agency. Cole finished fourth in the Cy Young voting in 2015, but had a 4.26 ERA in 2017 and served up 31 home runs. The Pirates acquired four players who were close to major league-ready or already in the majors in the case of Joe Musgrove. Colin Moran was the top prospect but wasn't viewed as a top-100 guy.
• Chris Archer: A few months after trading Cole, the Pirates traded for Archer, who had three-plus years remaining if you included his 2021 option -- for relative dirt-cheap prices ($7.6 million in 2019, $9 million in 2020 and $11 million in 2021). The Pirates gave up Tyler Glasnow, who was pitching in relief for the Pirates; prospect Austin Meadows, a former top-10 prospect who had fallen on prospects lists due to injuries; and Shane Baz, the 12th overall pick in the 2017 draft. Yes, this is how a general manager loses his job.
• Mike Clevinger: He had two-plus years of team control when San Diego acquired him this past summer for six players, including three major leaguers (Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill, Austin Hedges). The top prospect in the deal was shortstop Gabriel Arias, who could crack the back end of top-100 lists for 2021.
Sale, Quintana, Cole and Archer had a better track record for durability than Snell. Clevinger is probably most similar to Snell, with some red flags in his health history -- and we know what happened there, as he will miss 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Anyway, one thing I think the Rays might try to do is package center fielder Kevin Kiermaier with Snell. Kiermaier is actually set to be Tampa Bay's highest-paid player in 2021 at $11.66 million, with another $12.16 on the books for 2022. This wouldn't be a straight salary dump, as Kiermaier still has value as an elite, Gold Glove-caliber center fielder (he didn't win in 2020 but did win in 2019), but you're basically asking another team to take on his salary. Kiermaier has hit just .222/.286/.383 over the past three seasons. Still, thanks to his defense, he's a league-average player and can help a team as the strong side of a platoon in center and late-inning defensive replacement. The Rays also have other options in center, notably Manuel Margot, similar to Kiermaier as a plus defender and below-average hitter (although he hit well in the playoffs), and postseason hero Randy Arozarena, who played plenty of center field in the minors.
Keep this in mind as well: The center-field market is thin in free agency once you get past George Springer and Jackie Bradley Jr., and the best in next year's class is Starling Marte, who would be entering his age-33 season and is already probably a fringe defender in center. So Kiermaier is actually a capable fix for a couple of seasons.
If the Rays do trade Snell, they would probably be looking for a starter close to the majors. Their rotation candidates minus Snell would include Glasnow, Ryan Yarbrough, Josh Fleming, Trevor Richards, McKay, Shane McClanahan and maybe Brent Honeywell -- that's a lot of uncertainty. They could also use a catcher after re-signing Mike Zunino but letting Michael Perez go.
So are there teams that need a center fielder along with Snell? Let's go there first.
1. San Diego Padres: The Padres don't need a center fielder, as Trent Grisham just won the NL Gold Glove there, but imagine an outfield with Wil Myers in left, Kiermaier in center and Grisham in right, with Tommy Pham as the backup or DH. Without Clevinger, the Padres could use another established starter to go with Dinelson Lamet, Zach Davies and Chris Paddack.
Trade idea: Luis Patino, Francisco Mejia and another lower-level prospect for Snell and Kiermaier. The Rays get a pitcher who is ready for the majors and matches the prospect level of some of the players in the above trades, plus a catcher in Mejia, who is now behind Austin Nola on the San Diego depth chart. The Rays will want MacKenzie Gore, however, and the Padres will balk.
2. Philadelphia Phillies: We know Dave Dombrowski loves to trade prospects. The Phillies need a center fielder and have been rumored to be interested in Bradley, and they would have the offense to live with Kiermaier's bat. The farm system is thin, however, and they probably won't trade Alec Bohm, who would be a nice fit for the Rays at first base.
Trade idea: Spencer Howard, Mick Abel and Adam Haseley for Snell and Kiermaier. Would the Rays bite on this? Howard has already pitched in the majors, although it's hard to know how much his struggles (5.92 ERA in six starts) would affect how teams evaluate him. Abel was the team's first-round pick in 2020, an over-slot right-hander from an Oregon high school. He's exactly the kind of player Dombrowski has traded in the past -- a top prospect, but somebody with no performance record yet in pro ball. Haseley would give the Rays some outfield insurance. Depending on how you feel about Howard, this is either too light or too much.
3. Houston Astros: Springer is likely leaving H-town, so they will need a center fielder (no offense to Myles Straw, who is a fun player, but a backup in 2021-style baseball). Justin Verlander is out for the year and Zack Greinke is a free agent after 2021. Former Rays executive James Click is now the GM in Houston, so the front office relationship is there for a trade. The Astros have some interesting young pitching depth that might interest the Rays.
Trade idea: Forrest Whitley, Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia for Snell and Kiermaier. Hmm, Whitley remains such a wild card after his on-again, off-again minor league career so far that the Rays might not want to go down that road. And if the Astros are offering him up for a trade, that's a strong indicator that the Astros are down on him.
4. New York Mets: We know the Mets are in on Springer and Trevor Bauer, maybe both. You could trade for Snell, use Kiermaier in center to give you a plus-plus defender there, and put all your resources into signing Bauer, while keeping some money to re-sign Michael Conforto (a free agent after 2021). How about this rotation: Jacob deGrom, Bauer, Snell, Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz, David Peterson and Noah Syndergaard (around midseason or so).
Trade idea: Francisco Alvarez, Matthew Allan, J.T. Ginn and another low-level prospect for Snell and Kiermaier. Here's the problem with a Mets trade. All of New York's top prospects are at the lower levels of the minors, so the Rays would be rolling the dice on higher-upside kids with higher risk, especially Alvarez, a promising catcher who hit .312/.407/.510 in rookie ball in 2019. Sandy Alderson has made it clear that developing organizational depth is a key to future success and trading a package of prospects would go against that. Still, landing Snell and Bauer would be hard to resist and maybe new GM Jared Porter is ready to win now. Let's say it again: deGrom, Snell and Bauer in the same rotation.
5. Los Angeles Angels: Yes, the Angels have a center fielder. Nothing against Mr. Mike Trout, but he would make one hell of a left fielder. The Angels are also in on Bauer, so a Bauer/Snell scenario would also be a coup for them (minus deGrom to front the rotation).
Trade idea: Jo Adell, Reid Detmers, Jose Suarez and Kyren Paris for Snell and Kiermaier. I'm not sure either team makes this trade. Adell was a top-10 prospect entering 2020 but struggled mightily in the majors (.161, 55 strikeouts, seven walks) and needs more seasoning. Maybe Brandon Marsh, another outfield prospect, is a fit. Detmers was the team's first-round pick in 2020 out of Louisville, a lefty with good command of a low-90s fastball; he's more of a high-floor prospect than a high-ceiling one.
Anyway, those are some ideas. There are, of course, other scenarios involving more teams if you don't include Kiermaier as part of the package. Still, if I had to bet, I predict Snell is pitching for a new team in 2021. Then he just has to persuade his manager to keep him in the game.