The offseason is complicated. Front offices have to adjust on the fly and have a backup plan to the backup plan. One signing affects another. Maybe the player you want prefers to play somewhere else. There are always surprise signings that disrupt the market and the predictions. Now that we're starting to see action this offseason -- the Braves (Charlie Morton, Drew Smyly) and White Sox (Lance Lynn, Adam Eaton) in particular have made some moves -- let's have a little fun and play a little dominoes. We'll present three scenarios and speculate how one signing can affect what comes next.
Jump to: Springer signs first | Bauer signs first | LeMahieu signs first
Scenario No. 1: Springer signs first
The first domino: George Springer signs with the Mets.
Of the five big free agents -- Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu and Marcell Ozuna -- the consensus is the Mets will end up with at least one. Springer feels like the most likely. The Mets need a regular center fielder and bringing in one with legitimate defensive chops upgrades the defense across the board, shifting Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo to the corners, Dominic Smith to first base and Pete Alonso to DH (although MLB teams were sent a memo last week telling clubs not to assume there will be universal DH for 2021). Springer also seems like a safer $100 million investment than a 30-year-old catcher and more likely to sign before Bauer, who can wait out the market as long as possible since he will have more teams in on him on either a short-term or long-term deal.
#Mets are moving closer to George Springer and/or Trevor Bauer. Ultimate target is TBD. I'm told @StevenACohen2 is leaning towards Springer; Alderson would like to sign Bauer. Either one would be a huge upgrade in Flushing.
— Bob Klapisch (@BobKlap) December 9, 2020
Domino No. 2: DJ LeMahieu signs with the Yankees.
This isn't a sure thing, but the Yankees want to bring LeMahieu back after his two outstanding seasons with the club. Sure, trading for Francisco Lindor is a possibility, as Buster Olney wrote Wednesday, noting "Lindor's ebullient personality would seemingly play well the big stage in the Bronx. But so far, that team's winter focus seems to be on retaining DJ LeMahieu and adding starting pitching, and the Yankees project Gleyber Torres to be their shortstop for years to come."
Domino No. 3: Trevor Bauer signs with the Angels.
The Angels need a starting pitcher. Bauer is from Southern California (although returning "home" is always an overrated factor for free agents). We know owner Arte Moreno will spend big in free agency. The only hitch is that Bauer has stated he wants to go to a World Series contender and the Angels haven't been over .500 since 2015. Still, it's not like the Mets have been racking up playoff spots in recent years either.
Domino No. 4: J.T. Realmuto signs with the Nationals.
Given the Phillies', umm, financial issues, returning there appears unlikely. Some reports this week have the Mets perhaps closing in on a deal with James McCann. Realmuto doesn't seem to be a fan of playing in New York and for now the Yankees still roster Gary Sanchez. So ... the Nationals? They need a catcher (Yan Gomes is signed through 2021), they need offense, they have a bunch of money coming off the payroll after 2021 (including Max Scherzer) and they have spent in free agency in the past. Yes, this just adds to the stars-and-scrubs roster they already have, but you might as well add another star if you're going to do that.
Domino No. 5: Marcell Ozuna signs with the Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays want to be players this offseason and they have room in their payroll. It's difficult getting free agents to come north of the border, but if there's no DH in the NL, Ozuna's list of suitors might be limited to AL teams -- and the big spenders like the Yankees (Giancarlo Stanton), Red Sox (J.D. Martinez), Angels (Albert Pujols, Shohei Ohtani) and Astros (Yordan Alvarez) are already locked in at DH.
What about trading Francisco Lindor?
Hey, let's roll with Buster's suggestion that the Blue Jays are a fit for Lindor, since Bo Bichette has expressed a willingness to change positions. How about this lineup:
3B Cavan Biggio
2B Bichette
SS Lindor
DH Ozuna
RF Teoscar Hernandez
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
CF Randal Grichuk
C Danny Jansen
Scenario No. 2: Bauer signs first
The first domino: Trevor Bauer signs with the Mets.
So, let's go in a different direction and put Bauer on the Mets. Bauer is willing to relocate to Queens and a 1-2 of Jacob deGrom and Bauer could be like putting 1985 Dwight Gooden and 1969 Tom Seaver on the same team:
This is a first for me - a sponsored Facebook post from a @MLB free agent.
— Nick Begley (@nickbegley) December 8, 2020
And this is exactly why I'd love for @BauerOutage to be in a @Mets uniform next season. pic.twitter.com/znp6iFtCTx
Now, Mets fans are hoping for Bauer AND Springer, on top of already signing Trevor May and perhaps McCann. Or maybe they're expecting Bauer, Springer and Realmuto. Hey, new owner Steve Cohen is rich! But let's keep the Mets to signing just one of the big five -- they can still improve their defense by signing Jackie Bradley Jr. to play center and Kolten Wong for second base. Keep in mind as well, that going "big" in the offseason isn't necessarily an instant fix. Look at the three recent teams who tried a massive overhaul in one offseason:
1. 2019 Phillies: Signed Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen and David Robertson as free agents, traded for Realmuto and Jean Segura (and this after signing Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana the year before). The Phillies improved from 80 wins to 81 and were under .500 in 2020.
2. 2015 Padres: Traded for Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Craig Kimbrel, Melvin Upton Jr. and Derek Norris, and signed James Shields as a free agent. Quite the haul. The Padres finished 74-88, three fewer wins than the season before.
3. 2014 Yankees: Signed Masahiro Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran -- part of $471 million committed to free agents. They went from 85 to 84 wins and missed the playoffs for a second season.
Domino No. 2: George Springer signs with the Nationals.
The Nationals need offense and Adam Eaton signed with the White Sox. Springer fits in nicely in right field and can bat second in front of Juan Soto or cleanup behind him.
Domino No. 3: DJ LeMahieu signs with the Yankees.
We'll keep LeMahieu returning to the Yankees.
Domino No. 4: J.T. Realmuto signs with the Blue Jays.
This is how things get interesting for Realmuto. If the Phillies aren't a realistic possibility, and McCann signs first to take the Mets out of the bidding, and the Yankees decide to pour their money into LeMahieu (or Bauer) or just run with Sanchez (or even sign Yadier Molina) and the Nationals go with Springer or just roll with Gomes, which teams are left to bid big on Realmuto? This is how waiting too long can be risky for a free agent. If the Blue Jays are determined to bring in a star, maybe they switch gears and upgrade at catcher.
Domino No. 5: Marcell Ozuna signs with the Red Sox.
It's not that Ozuna can't play left field, but this is why he really needs the DH rule to be added. Don't rule out a return to the Braves even without the universal DH, but maybe the Red Sox fit here, even with Martinez signed for two more seasons. Ozuna can fake left field for a couple of seasons (especially in left field, a la Manny Ramirez), with Alex Verdugo and a hopefully healthy Andrew Benintendi manning the other two outfield spots. If it's a long-term contract, Ozuna moves to DH after 2022. Signing Ozuna doesn't feel like a Chaim Bloom move, but if you're buying Ozuna's 2020 level he could put up some numbers mashing home runs over the Green Monster.
What about Francisco Lindor?
The Blue Jays could still fit here, but what if the Mets really are intent on bringing in two big names? I'm not sure they have the prospects to pull off this deal and Sandy Alderson has already alluded to the lack of depth at the upper levels, but maybe they pull off a trade with something like Andres Gimenez and Brandon Nimmo. We just gave them Bauer, McCann, Bradley and Wong, so here's the lineup:
3B Jeff McNeil
SS Lindor
RF Michael Conforto
1B Pete Alonso
LF Dominic Smith
DH J.D. Davis
2B Wong
C McCann
CF Bradley
Scenario No. 3: LeMahieu signs first
The first domino: DJ LeMahieu signs with the Dodgers.
Let's pull a wild card and put LeMahieu on a team other than the Yankees. Don't the Dodgers feel like the perfect sleeper destination for LeMahieu? They can play him at third base to replace free agent Justin Turner or keep him at second if Gavin Lux needs more seasoning in the minors. Either way, it's a way for the Dodgers to get better without having to spend the big bucks to sign Bauer or prospect capital if they wanted to trade for Lindor (and then move Corey Seager to third base).
For anyone who received this alert: Ignore it. Someone made a mistake. At this point, the Angels are not believed to be in on DJ LeMahieu.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 7, 2020
The teams I reported earlier today were Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays and Dodgers, among others. Story is at ESPN+: https://t.co/4O4IJrXNbV https://t.co/bDkCwtzIKW
Domino No. 2: Trevor Bauer signs with the Yankees.
This is why Bauer can afford to wait. If LeMahieu doesn't return, that frees up money earmarked for him for the Yankees to go in another direction. Just don't put his locker next to Gerrit Cole's.
Domino No. 3: George Springer signs with the Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays REALLY want somebody. Maybe they want Springer more than the Mets.
Domino No. 4: J.T. Realmuto signs with ... the Blue Jays.
Hey, maybe it's the Blue Jays and not the Mets who end up with two of the big five.
Domino No. 5: Marcell Ozuna signs with the Braves.
Remember, the Braves non-tendered Adam Duvall, saving about $5 million. Yes, Freddie Freeman is a free agent and franchise icon, so they'll want to re-sign him, but this is a team that can win it all. The one-year deals for Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly should leave enough flexibility to bring Ozuna back -- and they can live with his defense if necessary, especially with Cristian Pache in center and Ronald Acuna Jr. in right providing plus defense at those spots.
What about Francisco Lindor?
This is probably the most likely scenario where Lindor ends up with the Yankees: LeMahieu leaves and they move Gleyber Torres to second base and attempt to sell Lindor on remaining in the Bronx.
And the Mets? Well, Mets fans can always look forward to the 2021-22 offseason, when Lindor, Freeman, Seager, Scherzer, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Lance Lynn are all potential free agents. Or maybe they go in another direction for 2021: Does trading for Nolan Arenado interest you?