The Francisco Lindor trade rumors have been more reliable than any train the last five years, arriving and departing on schedule every November, before the return trip leading up to the July 31 deadline. Because Lindor is a superstar and turned down the Indians' initial overture of $100 million in the spring of 2017, the assumption in the industry has long been that yes, there will be a day when Cleveland will cash in on the shortstop it drafted eighth overall in 2011.
The Indians talked with other teams in past years, choosing to keep Lindor and continue their general domination of the AL Central. But with Lindor now a year removed from free agency, a trade now finally seems inevitable, much in the way a Mookie Betts deal did at the outset of last offseason.
By all accounts from sources around baseball, the Indians are prepared to listen, aggressively. Cleveland needs to recoup value for Lindor before he walks away, just as it did with CC Sabathia (swapped for Michael Brantley), Cliff Lee (Carlos Carrasco), and Trevor Bauer (Franmil Reyes).
And any parent of a college student stuck at home during the pandemic understands the dynamic that seems to be in play increasingly with Lindor and the Indians: It's probably time for him to move on and get on with the rest of his baseball life. Everyone understands he's not going to spend the rest of his career boxed into a small-market budget, given the major competitive sacrifices the Indians would have to make to keep him, considering the monster contract he'll sign in the next 13 months. (Baseball officials and agents loosely guess he'll get something less than the $365 million Betts signed for in July, but far more than any free agent gets this winter, because Lindor is a five-tool elite shortstop).
While the Indians will always appreciate Lindor for the player and the person he is, Cleveland might be ready to accelerate the trade conversation so that the talk of a looming Lindor deal doesn't dominate the clubhouse from February through July.
It's unclear how much progress the Indians have made in their talks with other teams -- the other day, club president Chris Antonetti declined to address the trade rumors when speaking with reporters -- but agents and club executives say that a lot of the movement has been slowed by the Mets' deliberate front office search. Since Steve Cohen officially took over as the team's owner, president Sandy Alderson has been multi-tasking, looking for a general manager while also making player moves. Because the Mets are one of the few aggressive teams in the market this winter, it would make sense for the Indians to wait for Alderson's front office to gain clarity.
The Toronto Blue Jays are a natural fit for Lindor, as well: He would be the veteran superstar placed in the middle of the Jays' group of young, high-end position players. Bo Bichette, the team's shortstop in 2020, has indicated he'd be open to changing positions, whether it be second base or third base or the outfield -- and why not, given all that Lindor would bring to the table. Exceptional defense. Speed. Power. A switch-hitter.
Most of the time, when a front office pursues an established star in free agency or trade, they have to do background work to learn about the player -- what type of teammate he is, how he gets along with other players, his work ethic. But for the Jays' front office, Lindor is a known quantity: Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins, at the top of the chain of command in Toronto, were with the Indians for the first years of Lindor's professional career.
Lindor might fit the Yankees, as well, and Lindor's ebullient personality would seemingly play well the big stage in the Bronx. But so far, that team's winter focus seems to be on retaining DJ LeMahieu and adding starting pitching, and the Yankees project Gleyber Torres to be their shortstop for years to come.
There may not be a lot of trade bidders for Lindor because of the team budget cuts going on around baseball, and because of the shortstop's looming free agency. The team that trades for him presumably will look to sign the All-Star to a long-term deal, and agents say Lindor's contract leverage might be at its apex this winter. Next fall, he would have to compete for market space with four other star shortstops who will be eligible for free agency -- Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Corey Seager and Javier Baez.