The offseason is off to a slow start around baseball, to the surprise of pretty much no one. Uncertainty reigns atop the leaderboard of market forces at play in baseball at the moment.
One ripple in the otherwise calm waters of player movement has been the rumor that the Cleveland Indians are intent on moving star shortstop Francisco Lindor before the 2021 campaign. We've seen this show before, of course. Just last winter, Lindor was the star of the rumor mill but ultimately Cleveland stood pat, unsatisfied with the offers they found during their explorations.
This time seems different. After preseason extension talks between Lindor's agent and the Indians went nowhere, Cleveland's franchise player is a year from hitting the open market. While the Indians could play things out and push for one more postseason run -- a cause that would certainly be helped more by Lindor's presence than by his absence -- it appears that Cleveland is finally ready to move on.
With all due respect to the top free agents on the market, from Trevor Bauer to J.T. Realmuto to George Springer, if Lindor were to change teams, he would be the best player to swap uniforms over the winter. That said, it's a complicated situation: Lindor has just the one year left before he sets out to get what many have suggested could be a 10-year deal worth upwards of $300 million. Any transaction involving a player of his ilk is always a balancing act.
Lately you can't swing a dead fungo bat without hitting an article on Lindor-centered trade ideas. Rather than throwing more darts of that nature, let's take a step back and do a comprehensive look at how well he actually fits with each team.
In a sense, Lindor certainly fits anywhere. He's one of the top 10 to 15 players in the major leagues and he just turned 27 on Saturday. Yet every team's situation is different. In a vacuum everyone wants Lindor -- including Cleveland. In the real world, he makes more sense for some teams than others.
Lindor is not coming off his best season. He played in all 60 games for Cleveland, but his .258/.335/.415 slash line represented career lows across the board, and his perennially excellent defensive metrics were down. Chances are, those numbers aren't going to scare off anyone.
Beyond the sheer craziness of the 2020 season, Lindor's Statcast-based metrics were in line with his norms, suggesting that a lot of his down season was likely a matter of bad luck. His strike-zone indicators were mostly fine, though his strikeout rate was up a bit. The biggest change was Lindor's homer-per-fly-ball percentage, which fell from 13.1% to 7.2%.
Teams would be wise to bet on a bounce-back season and they almost certainly are doing just that. He is perhaps the best-hitting shortstop in baseball, the qualifier made necessary by the 2020 emergence of Padres superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. Still, let's consider how unique Lindor is from a historical perspective.
According to FanGraphs, Lindor's 28.9 career WAR through age 26 ranks 10th all-time among primary shortstops. I took the top 25 non-active shortstops from that leaderboard and looked at what they did from their age-27 seasons onward. I used this scale, which is the one FanGraphs uses for interpreting single-season WAR totals:
Scrub: 0-1 WAR
Role Player: 1-2 WAR
Solid Starter: 2-3 WAR
Good Player: 3-4 WAR
All-Star: 4-5 WAR
Superstar: 5-6 WAR
MVP: 6+ WAR
Lindor's historical brethren combined for 29 MVP-level seasons, 22 superstar seasons, 29 All-Star seasons and 38 good seasons beginning with their age-27 campaigns. If you consider a "good" season by the above criteria to reflect the production of a first-division regular, the average number of such seasons of at least that quality from these 25 greats was 4.7. If history is any guide, a team willing to go heavy on Lindor is likely to get a strong return.
What marks Lindor as particularly special is his elite performance with both the bat and the glove. According to baseball-reference.com, he ranks 24th all-time in defensive WAR through age 26 among shortstops (9.4). The shortstop immediately ahead of him on that leaderboard is Marty Marion. The guy right behind him is Ozzie Smith. Overall, the non-active shortstops on this all-time top 25 defensive leaderboard remained regulars at the position for an average of 5.4 more seasons after turning 27.
In short: History is very much on Lindor's side.
To assess Lindor's fit with each team, I created ratings by six different criteria, selected according to what a likely deal involving Lindor would look like. The model for a deal is last spring's trade in which superstar Mookie Betts was shipped from the Red Sox to the Dodgers in a three-way deal that also folded in the Twins. Boston's return in the swap:
• Salary relief, in the form of David Price's contract;
• MLB-ready outfielder Alex Verdugo (a 24-year-old who ranked in the top 20 to 30 prospects in the game when he was eligible for such rankings);
• Shortstop prospect Jeter Downs (age 21, had yet to debut in MLB, ranked in the top-50 to top-100 range on prospect lists);
• Infield prospect Conner Wong (age 24, had not debuted in MLB, rated outside the top 100 prospects).
That's a rough draft for what the Indians would be looking for. They would probably want some kind of stopgap to take Lindor's place at shortstop unless they got an MLB-ready prospect in return, though Cleveland has some internal options in its pipeline. They almost certainly want a plug-and-play outfielder who can help shore up that long-ailing position group. Salary relief is always welcome from Cleveland's perspective, though if Lindor is moved, the only Indian slated to earn eight figures in 2021 is beloved pitcher Carlos Carrasco. Depending on how the overall deal is set up, the Indians would surely love to get some kind of upside prospect from the low minors as well.
To rate the "pieces," I rated each team's ability to send back a shortstop, its outfield depth and the quantity of prospects the club has in its pipeline rated in the 20 to 100 range. I used the end-of-season top-100 list from Baseball America, as I wanted to make sure this year's draft class was accounted for. The "pieces" factor is an average of these areas.
Each team's fit was also rated for payroll flexibility, its 2021 outlook at shortstop, its long-term outlook at shortstop and the probable impact on championship probability each team would glean from acquiring Lindor. This is both a rating of each team's title odds as they appear to be now, but also the marginal upgrade -- if any -- Lindor would represent from what the team already has going on at shortstop.
Finally, I looked at how well Lindor would fit at each team's home ballpark. This is a minor consideration but one that shouldn't be ignored altogether. However, it's fairly obvious that there isn't any team who would turn down the chance to bring in Lindor based on its venue.
Lindor is a switch-hitter who excels from both sides of the plate, with outstanding bottom-line numbers as both a lefty and a righty. What's interesting about his career numbers, however, is that when you look at his platoon splits, you wouldn't necessarily know you're looking at stat lines from the same player.
As a righty, Lindor's numbers suggest a line-drive hitter with a high average, good discipline of the strike zone who uses all fields. As a lefty, Lindor is more aggressive, strikes out more, but also generates more power. He is more of a pure pull hitter and hits with more launch from the left side. Because he hits from the left side about three times more frequently than from the right, teams with parks friendly to lefty-hitting, pull, power hitters are a more ideal fit for Lindor.
All of these factors were rated on a scale from one to five (five being the best) and averaged together to create an overall "fit" rating. I then calculated the standard deviations from the league average fit rating to sort the teams into four tiers. Let's consider the teams from worst fit to best fit.
Jump to: Makes the least sense | Not the right time | Definitely worth a call | Matches worth making
Tier IV: Trading for Lindor makes the least sense
30. Tampa Bay Rays (Fit: 1.635)
On one hand, the Rays are probably the team which could make the Indians say "Deal!" faster than any other. All they have to do is offer Cleveland the rights to Wander Franco -- the top overall prospect in baseball. But not only would the Rays never make such a deal involving Franco, but they also have a top-notch safeguard at the position in 2020 starter Willy Adames, who is under team control through 2024.
29. Kansas City Royals (Fit: 1.909)
The Royals would not be a candidate to jump into the title chase even with Lindor and they would not be a candidate to come to terms with Lindor on a $300 million contract. On top of all that, Kansas City has a talented young shortstop in place -- Adalberto Mondesi -- who has three more seasons of team control. And the Royals also have one of baseball's top shortstop prospects in Bobby Witt Jr. Nothing to see here.
28. Pittsburgh Pirates (Fit: 2.148)
On one hand, the Pirates have some young shortstops to dangle -- current big-leaguers Kevin Newman and Cole Tucker, plus prospects Oneil Cruz (who is dealing with serious off-field issues this winter) and Nick Gonzales. But the Bucs aren't going to win in 2021 with or without Lindor, and they aren't giving him $300 million, either.
27. Colorado Rockies (Fit: 2.235)
The Rockies aren't an inconceivable fit, as they could dangle infield prospect Brendan Rodgers, who should be ready for the majors in 2021. Colorado also has some outfield depth, though it's debatable how much of an upgrade any of that depth would be for Cleveland. The main thing, though, is that the Rockies have a franchise shortstop in place in Trevor Story and need to focus on extending him while appeasing franchise third baseman Nolan Arenado by upgrading other spots. Like catcher.
26. Washington Nationals (Fit: 2.246)
The Nats need to focus on working out something long term with Trea Turner, and their prospect base is a little thin to get Cleveland its best-possible package.
Tier III: Not the right time to go get Mr. Lindor
25. San Diego Padres (Fit: 2.389)
The left-side of the Padres' infield is set for the foreseeable future with Tatis and Manny Machado. While San Diego has top shortstop prospect C.J. Abrams to dangle, Lindor's short-term upgrade to the Padres' infield would be marginal, and long term, the next $300 million investment San Diego makes should probably be to keep Tatis around for the long run.
24. Arizona Diamondbacks (Fit: 2.451)
While the Diamondbacks' outlook at shortstop is passable, with Nick Ahmed under contract through 2023 and Geraldo Perdomo rating as a solid prospect at the position, Lindor would be a major upgrade. Still, Arizona's payroll aims don't seem conducive to making an offer to Lindor for the long run. The D-backs have been down the top-heavy-roster road before.
23. Houston Astros (Fit: 2.582)
The Astros have Carlos Correa for the short term and the need to lock him down with an extension for the long term. If that's not in the offing, Houston has a couple of intriguing shortstop prospects in Jeremy Pena and might-be-a-shortstop Freudis Nova. Bringing Lindor into the mix would not really accomplish much. If Houston wants to splurge at the position and Correa departs, the Astros can go big in next year's free-agent market.
22. Baltimore Orioles (Fit: 2.659)
Obviously Lindor would be a major short-term upgrade and while Baltimore is high on prospect Gunnar Henderson, there is no one in the system at shortstop currently who approaches Lindor's production, or who profiles to eventually do so. But Baltimore is just not at the point where they want to cash in prospect depth for what could be a one-year rental of a star player.
21. Seattle Mariners (Fit: 2.778)
The Mariners have good prospect depth, especially with outfielders, and could send Cleveland a younger, cheaper shortstop replacement in J.P. Crawford. But Seattle isn't close enough to roll the dice on one year of Lindor, especially since Crawford actually had a better 2020 season than the Cleveland star.
20. Chicago White Sox (Fit: 2.843)
Tim Anderson has been in Lindor's class the last couple of years and is signed to a team-friendly deal with club options that go through the 2024 season. The White Sox have other areas in which they can invest their resources.
Tier II: Definitely worth a call
19. Chicago Cubs (Fit: 3.086)
The Cubs have a glaring long-term need at shortstop if Javier Baez departs after next season, especially since it doesn't seem like Nico Hoerner's defense is going to work at the position. The Cubs don't have great prospect depth, but they probably have enough to entice Cleveland, if they were to dangle Hoerner and possibly DH/first base candidate Kyle Schwarber, who seems like a Cleveland kind of player. But the Cubs seem to be in some payroll distress and bringing in Lindor would run counter to the signals that have been emanating from Wrigley Field.
18. Minnesota Twins (Fit: 3.094)
Including a pair of team options, incumbent shortstop Jorge Polanco is under contract through 2025. The Twins also have Royce Lewis nearing his MLB debut, and he's one of the top prospects in the game, good enough to perhaps throw Polanco into a utility role. And then there is perennial middle infield prospect Nick Gordon. The Twins have excellent outfield depth and a burning need to make that one key move to get the team over the top. Targeting Lindor is not something the Twins have to do, but if they were to get aggressive about it, they would be well positioned to match up with Cleveland. But could the Indians bear to deal Lindor to a division foe?
17. Miami Marlins (Fit: 3.198)
I actually love the theoretical fit in Miami for Lindor, who could become the face of the Marlins and serve as the backbone of a Miami position player group that supports its emerging pitching staff. As one of the more charismatic players in the majors, Lindor would make quite a splash with Miami's sizable Puerto Rican population. That aspect of it is particularly intriguing when you ponder whether a team trading for Lindor could entice him into an extension before a deal is completed. The Marlins have good prospect depth and a near-ready shortstop in Jazz Chisholm, whom they could send Cleveland's way. The fly in the ointment, as always when it comes to the Marlins, is money.
16. Milwaukee Brewers (Fit: 3.244)
The Brewers scored as a middling fit in each of the different factors, so it makes sense they land right in the middle of the overall ranking. Lindor is probably a stretch for the Brewers, though maybe if they wanted to make a one-year push it might make sense. Lindor would not seem to be a long-term fit in terms of payroll flexibility in Milwaukee, and the Brewers might not have the prospect depth to match other offers Cleveland is going to see. They do have enough cost-controlled players in or near the big-league level to perhaps win over Cleveland with quantity.
15. San Francisco Giants (Fit: 3.248)
Brandon Crawford just completed his 10th season as the regular shortstop in San Francisco, making him the longest-tenured player at that position in the long history of the Giants franchise. His contract is up after next season. Are the Giants close enough to go after someone like Lindor? Probably not. But you could see the Giants as a match in a deal centered around Mauricio Dubon and shortstop prospect Marco Luciano. The Giants have the resources to go in full bore on a Lindor extension. On the other hand, Oracle Park might be the worst fit in the majors for Lindor's swing from the left side of the plate, albeit not as bad as before last season's renovation.
14. Texas Rangers (Fit: 3.313)
The Rangers might be a more likely candidate to pursue Lindor on the open market next winter, if he gets there. Texas stalwart Elvis Andrus is under contract though at least 2022 and he has a playing-time based vesting option for 2023. Andrus is fading a bit, so the Rangers might be in the market for a replacement in next year's deep free-agent shortstop class. But that's a more likely path for the Rangers than trading for Lindor now.
13. Detroit Tigers (Fit: 3.401)
You want to signal you're ready to move from rebuild mode to win-now mode? Trade for Francisco Lindor! Alas, the Tigers were a last-place club again in 2020, so it's probably too soon to start emptying the prospect vault. What the Tigers have is need: The top shortstops in the organization, including incumbent Niko Goodrum and rookie Willi Castro, might actually be best suited to play elsewhere around the diamond. If the Tigers have a breakout 2021 campaign, targeting one of next year's free-agent shortstops could be their next power move.
12. Cleveland Indians (Fit: 3.424)
I included the Indians in the system just to give me a spot to note that Cleveland does have some long-term possibilities at shortstop in the organization, though no one who projects as a Lindor facsimile. Tyler Freeman ranks in the top 20 shortstop prospects in the game on most lists and isn't far off from the majors. Brayan Rocchio and Gabriel Arias are behind him in the pipeline and could stick at the position. These guys are why Cleveland's need for a 2021 Lindor replacement could be satisfied by a stopgap solution. In other words, the Indians don't have to insist on other teams' top shortstop prospects if they find value at other spots.
11. Atlanta Braves (Fit: 3.424)
The Braves have Dansby Swanson under control through 2022 but no clear play after him if they should fail to sign Swanson to an extension. Swanson is coming off his best season and is a popular figure in Atlanta. Still, the Braves have some near-ready, high-upside outfield possibilities who could interest Cleveland. Christian Pache is probably overshooting the mark, but Drew Waters might work. Atlanta needs to figure out how to keep Freddie Freeman on board after 2021 but the Braves could conceivably work as a long-term fit for Lindor, as a team that could both pay him and make him a central figure on a contending team for years to come. Still, the most likely outcome is that Swanson will remain as the Braves' shortstop for the long run.
10. St. Louis Cardinals (Fit: 3.458)
Money is the big hangup for a Redbirds club that reportedly took it on the chin more than most during the pandemic-riddled 2020 season. St. Louis acquired Paul Goldschmidt from Arizona when he had just one year left before hitting the open market, then convinced him to sign on for the long term. It's a strategy that has worked for the Cardinals in the past. St. Louis has a plethora of young outfielders the Indians could use, from Lane Thomas to Tyler O'Neill to Harrison Bader to Austin Dean.
If they are getting Lindor, St. Louis could also part with Paul DeJong as Cleveland's shortstop replacement. He's inked to a very team-friendly contract that, with club options, could go through 2025. On top of all this, the Cardinals are close enough to winning it all that it would be defensible to bring in Lindor for a one-year push, rolling the dice on what comes after. The system is deep enough to not be crippled by such a gamble.
9. New York Mets (Fit: 3.578)
Under new owner Steve Cohen the Mets are itching to make a splash and are positioned to go all in financially for Lindor, now and for the future. They also have the pieces to swing a deal. They have shortstop candidates to send Cleveland's way in Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez and prospect Ronny Mauricio. They have outfield depth, whether it's Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Davis or someone else. Dominic Smith might work as a first base/DH possibility. Still, it's worth wondering if the Mets can actually make the best offer. The missing piece is a high-upside prospect and while not many super-elite prospects get moved these days, the Mets may not have anyone even in the top 50. That might not get it done once offers are stacked up next to each other.
8. Toronto Blue Jays (Fit: 3.579)
The Blue Jays appear to be one of the few teams willing to be financially aggressive this winter. They have a depth of options to send back to Cleveland as well. At shortstop, they could offer a prospect like Jordan Groshans, especially after Toronto added Austin Martin with the fifth pick in the most recent draft. The Blue Jays could also improve the Indians' outfield outlook with Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. The Blue Jays would be dealing from a position of strength, since between Bo Bichette and their prospects, Toronto's need for Lindor is far from acute. Still, it might be the biggest splash the Jays could make.
7. Philadelphia Phillies (Fit: 3.580)
The Phillies probably need to hire a general manager before trading for Lindor. The incoming GM will find that his new club currently has non-shortstops Jean Segura and Scott Kingery atop his depth chart at the position. (This assumes that Segura is better suited for a super-utility role at this point.) The Phillies do have a couple of prospects in the pipeline, but neither Bryson Stott nor Luis Garcia is likely going to seize the position next season. And the Phillies are very much in win-now mode. The problem in matching up with the Indians in a deal is that the Phils' best upside prospects have already graduated to the majors, and Philly can't really afford to part with either Alec Bohm or Spencer Howard.
Tier I: A match worth making
6. Boston Red Sox (Fit: 3.697)
The Red Sox haven't been mentioned that often as a Lindor landing spot, at least not that I've seen, but there is a lot working in Boston's favor if they want to make that play. The Red Sox can afford him, if they are willing to give Lindor the deal they wanted to give Mookie Betts. They can use Lindor, who could bump Xander Bogaerts' plus bat to another position, perhaps third base with Rafael Devers moving to first base. In Jeter Downs, the Red Sox can dangle a possible Lindor replacement. However, the Indians might be looking for more upside than what Boston has to offer in a prospect-based swap and the Red Sox aren't positioned to help Cleveland with its outfield situation.
5. Los Angeles Angels (Fit: 3.702)
The Angels need to focus on pitching but who's to say they aren't enticed by another high-profile position player acquisition? A deal involving outfield prospect Brandon Marsh and shortstop David Fletcher, who is under team control through 2024, might be the basis for a match.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (Fit: 3.773)
The Dodgers never need to do anything. They didn't need to trade for Betts, but they could and they did. Now they have some possible turnover in their infield with Justin Turner hitting free agency and Corey Seager possibly hitting the market next year. Goodness knows, the Dodgers have the pieces to match up with Cleveland and the resources to pay Lindor even if they eventually extend Seager and Cody Bellinger. They could also simply re-sign Turner and turn second base over to Gavin Lux for at least one year while they bargain with Seager. Or they could make Lux the centerpiece of a trade that brings in Lindor, one of the few players good enough to upgrade the Dodgers' roster.
3. Oakland Athletics (Fit: 3.840)
The A's are good enough that if they can deal with Marcus Semien's free agency -- either by re-signing or replacing him -- they can contend for a title next year. That makes acquiring Lindor for a one-year push an intriguing possibility. The A's might have to thin their big-league roster to match up with Cleveland, possibly by dangling catcher Sean Murphy in an expanded deal that would bring Roberto Perez back from Cleveland. Ramon Laureano would be a solid addition to the Cleveland outfield mix, while oft-injured pitching prospect A.J. Puk could represent the upside Cleveland wants in a deal. Or maybe Oakland should just re-sign Semien, who despite what his agent says ain't getting $100 million.
2. New York Yankees (Fit: 4.007)
The Yankees might be loath to spring for another mega-contract with Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton already on the books. A $300 million splash with Lindor might be too much even for the Yankees. But would a one-year push work, one that nudges Gleyber Torres back to second base? You could see a blockbuster-ish deal coming together between Cleveland and New York. Gary Sanchez, Mike Tauchman, perhaps one-time Indians prospect Clint Frazier, Miguel Andujar and Clarke Schmidt could all be components in a splashy Lindor deal, which could possibly be expanded to include Carrasco, who addresses the Yankees' need for rotation certainty. It's a drastic scenario, but these are the Yankees and they are working on a pennant drought that has now been extended to 11 years.
1. Cincinnati Reds (Fit: 4.206)
The Reds are an out-of-the-box consideration but hear me out. For a couple of years now, Cincinnati has been pushing to turn the corner. They are rich in pitching, even with the possible (or probable) departure of Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer. They have a near-ready shortstop prospect in Jose Garcia, who currently is atop the Cincinnati depth chart in the position. The Reds have depth in the outfield and could part with one or two of Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel, Shogo Akiyama, Nicholas Castellanos or Aristides Aquino. They have some prospects in that top 50-to-100 range that might be good enough to seal a deal in Hunter Greene, Austin Hendrick and Nick Lodolo. The Reds might not be well positioned to secure Lindor for the long term, but if Cincinnati is looking to seize the moment in a wide open NL Central next season, there would be no bolder move than to trade for Lindor.