We are back for the third annual edition of free-agent superlatives, although this offseason will be decidedly less super for some free agents than they might have expected a year ago. Read Jeff Passan's analysis on why this offseason will be so different from recent years ... and then come back here to check out some of the key "what might happen" subplots of the 2020-21 free-agent class.
Guy most likely to get the biggest deal: J.T. Realmuto. This is usually an easy call -- Gerrit Cole last offseason, Bryce Harper the year before that -- but there are three candidates this offseason in Realmuto, George Springer and Trevor Bauer. In his free-agent rankings, colleague Kiley McDaniel predicted Realmuto would get five years, $110 million; Springer four years and $108 million; and Bauer one year, $31 million. Bauer has backed away from his stated intention of signing only one-year deals, however, so a four-year deal coming off his Cy Young season could be in the $120 million range.
Here's why each could get the biggest deal:
Realmuto: With a league-wide shortage of offensive-minded catchers, Realmuto's all-around game makes him a valuable asset. He will be entering his age-30 season and while you usually worry about how catchers age, Realmuto is one of the most athletic catchers in recent memory, which perhaps bodes well for his long-term future if he can avoid serious injury (unlike Buster Posey, a similarly athletic catcher). Most importantly for the final dollar amount, the Phillies, Mets and Yankees (if they trade Gary Sanchez) could get involved in a bidding war.
Springer: He's a year older than Realmuto, but also has elite athleticism and has hit 53 home runs in 173 games over the past two seasons. He can handle center field or right field, although given his age would probably have to move to right on a full-time basis after a couple of seasons. He's a good fit for several teams that could afford a $100 million-plus layout, including the Mets, Phillies (especially if they lose Realmuto), Blue Jays and White Sox.
Bauer: If he is interested in signing a long-term deal -- especially one longer than four years -- then he could blow past Realmuto and Springer. On the other hand, the longer the deal he seeks, the fewer teams will be in the bidding. Bauer will say he comes with less injury risk than other starters, but every starter is durable and injury-free until he isn't. Cole received $324 million over nine years, and while Bauer won't come close to that, but he could get something similar to the six-year, $140 million deal Patrick Corbin got from the Nationals two years ago.
Guy most likely to put his team over the top: Bauer. Two years ago, I named Corbin in this space and the Nationals won the World Series -- with Corbin pitching three scoreless innings in Game 7. Last year, I named Anthony Rendon, which would have been the right call if he had signed with the Los Angeles team I thought he would sign with. Instead, he went to the Angels, the Dodgers traded for Mookie Betts and the rest is in the history books.
As for Bauer, while bullpen games and shorter stints from starters became even more trendy in the 2020 postseason, let's not underestimate the value of a good starting pitcher. In the World Series, Dodgers starters had a 2.84 ERA compared to 6.67 for the Rays. Yes, the Dodgers used a bullpen game in the clincher, but it was a starter -- Julio Urias -- who closed it out. The Nationals rode their rotation to the title in 2019, and the Red Sox used starters Chris Sale, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi and Rick Porcello out of the bullpen in 2018 when they weren't starting. Bauer has said he wants to go to a contender and he has the kind of rubber arm that could pay off huge in October.
Guy who gambled on himself in 2020 and will be rewarded: Marcell Ozuna. After an uneven season with the Cardinals in 2019 -- he cracked 29 home runs, but hit just .241 and a shoulder issue affected his throwing in left field -- Ozuna took a one-year deal from the Braves and put together a monster season at the plate, hitting .338 and leading the NL with 18 home runs and 56 RBIs. Still, it was a short season, and on the surface, Ozuna looks like an inconsistent player going back to his 2017 season with the Marlins:
2017: .312/.376/.548, 149 OPS+, .388 wOBA, 5.7 WAR
2018: .280/.325/.433, 106 OPS+, .327 wOBA, 2.6 WAR
2019: .241/.328/.472, 109 OPS+, .336, wOBA, 1.9 WAR
2020: .338/.431/.636, 175 OPS+, .437 wOBA, 2.3 WAR
None of those seasons is like the others. When we dig into some of the advanced metrics, however, we find Ozuna's a more consistent hitter than he first appears. Here are Ozuna's expected weighted on-base average figures based on the quality of contact:
2017: .368
2018: .363
2019: .387
2020: .417
It's unusual for a player to be as "unlucky" as Ozuna was two years running, but that's kind of what happened both seasons in St. Louis. But was it just good luck with Atlanta in 2020? While he has always hit the ball hard, he also hit the ball on the ground a lot. But he has been getting better at hitting the ball in the air, improving his average launch angle from 10.7 degrees in 2018 to 13.5 in 2019 and 16.4 in 2020. With that launch angle now in the optimal zone, Ozuna was one of the best hitters in the majors and has a good chance to carry it forward. He also had a career-high walk rate.
Ozuna isn't a terrible outfielder, but his best position is "hitter" and if the NL keeps the universal DH for 2021 (or brings it back in 2022), he will have more teams interested in him on a long-term deal. A return to the Braves is possible and the White Sox could supplement their already-excellent offense after their DHs hit .149 with a .590 OPS in 2020.
Guy who hit free agency one year too late: Marcus Semien. With the A's in 2019, Semien finished a deserving third in the MVP voting and would have been in line for a $100 million deal. Now? He might not get half that or might even take a one-year deal in an effort to rebuild his value after struggling big-time at the plate in 2020. In 2019, he increased his barrel rate, exit velocity and overall hard-hit rate while cutting down on his strikeouts. In 2020, everything was way down, and 2019 now looks like an outlier season rather than one of improvement. He's a difficult player to evaluate, although the Angels, Reds and Phillies all have a hole at shortstop.
Guy most likely to be the biggest steal: Ha-Seong Kim. I pegged Hyun-Jin Ryu in this space a year ago, and while he wasn't exactly a contract bargain (four years, $80 million), he did finish third in the AL Cy Young voting and his contract looks like a much better investment than the $85 million the Diamondbacks gave Madison Bumgarner. This year, I'm going with another Korean player as Kim will be coming over from the KBO, where the shortstop hit .306/.397/.523 with 30 home runs and 23 steals in 138 games.
Kiley McDaniel projected a five-year, $20 million deal for Kim, and given his KBO numbers and scouting reports, he should be more valuable than that over the life of the contract. Kim is 25, right in his prime, and projects as at least a solid shortstop, but could also be a valuable super-utility type. Don't expect those same superstar offensive numbers in the majors, but there is a nice all-around game here. The Angels, Reds and Phillies could consider Kim at shortstop, while the Indians, Mariners and A's could view him as a second baseman.
Guy most likely to be the biggest bust: Didi Gregorius. So, this is interesting. Last year in this category, I named Nick Castellanos, who ended up signing a four-year, $64 million deal with the Reds. He did hit 14 home runs this year for the Reds, but his OPS fell from .863 to .784 and his OBP went from .337 to .298. Toss in some below-average defense and his WAR was minus-0.2. Where do a lot of people think Gregorius might land? The Reds.
It's not that Gregorius is necessarily a bad player. He hit .284/.339/.488 for the Phillies in 2020. But he'll be entering his age-31 season, and 30-something shortstops always scare me a little. Plus, his power numbers have benefited from his home parks. With the Phillies, seven of his 10 home runs came at home; with the Yankees in 2018, 19 of his 27 home runs came at home. (He did hit better on the road than at home in 2019.) Now, if he lands with the Reds, that's another great home run park, but if he goes to a different team on a multiyear deal, I see a shortstop with declining range and power numbers that may not translate.
Guy who helped himself the most in October: Joc Pederson. After hitting 36 home runs in 2019 (and 61 over two seasons), Pederson hit .190/.285/.397 in 121 at-bats for the Dodgers this past season. He had a productive postseason, however, hitting .382/.432/.559. Without the postseason, the lasting report is a bad regular season. Now he's the guy who was a terrific platoon hitter in 2019. The lesson here, of course: There's a small-sample-size caveat in both instances. Pederson's regular-season numbers included some bad luck on balls in play and his postseason consisted of 37 plate appearances. The Dodgers might want to bring Pederson back, but since he won't break the bank, he should draw interest from teams such as the White Sox (who need a left-handed bat), Cardinals (their outfielders and DHs were 23rd in the majors in OPS versus right-handed pitchers) and Marlins (even worse than the Cardinals).
The guy every team could use: Tommy La Stella. The major league strikeout rate in 2020 was 23.4%. La Stella struck out in just 5.3% of his plate appearances, making him a modern-day Joe Sewell (look him up). Power isn't La Stella's game, but he has added some the past couple of years (21 homers in 488 at-bats), and defense is his strong suit (he can play second, third or first). Frankly, I'm not sure why teams wouldn't consider him as a DH, given the lack of production so many teams get there. His ability to put the ball in play is also a great contrast if a lineup is otherwise full of strikeout-prone sluggers. The White Sox and Nationals are possible fits, as are the Braves and Twins if they lose Ozuna and Nelson Cruz respectively.
The reliever every team wants: Liam Hendriks. The market is already flooded with relievers (and look for many more to get non-tendered in early December) so multiyear deals will be hard to come by, but Hendriks is the one guy who might get a contract similar to what the top relievers received a year ago (Will Smith, three years, $39 million; Drew Pomeranz, four years, $34 million). He has had back-to-back stellar seasons with the A's, with the advanced metrics teams appreciate (98th percentile strikeout rate, high fastball spin rate, not much hard contact). Many teams struggled at the closer position in 2020, so Hendriks will be in demand. (We mean you, Phillies.)
The reliever nobody apparently wants: Brad Hand. He was an All-Star in 2017, 2018 and 2019. He was 16-for-16 in save opportunities in 2020. He has 113 strikeouts in 79⅓ innings over the past two seasons. Yet, when Cleveland declined his $10 million option and put him on outright waivers, no team claimed him, making him a free agent. Hand's four-seam velocity has dropped from 93.8 mph in 2018 to 91.4 in 2020, so that's one concern. He also has the somewhat contradictory metrics of a low swing-and-miss rate (36th percentile) but a high strikeout rate (92nd percentile). Obviously, team execs see some red flags here and didn't want to pay him that $10 million salary.
The legend who might move on: Yadier Molina. Is it possible the future Hall of Famer leaves the Cardinals after 17 seasons? Yes. Molina is seeking a two-year deal, but the Cardinals have reportedly been reluctant to do that. They do have Andrew Knizner, who has earned a shot to play, plus prospect Ivan Herrera, although he's probably on a 2023 timetable after the lack of game action this year. The teams who lose out on Realmuto could see Molina as a worthwhile cheaper alternative. Think again of the Yankees here, if they have tired of Sanchez's defensive lapses (not to mention his .147 average in 2020). Yadier Molina in pinstripes? It could happen.