The shortened 2020 season makes it difficult to evaluate player performance, but Trevor Bauer might have helped himself more than any other player. Think of where Bauer stood after the 2019 season. Since 2014, he was 68-56 with a 3.99 ERA, had proven durable with no arm-related injuries in his career (although he had topped 200 innings only once), and was known as the foremost student and practitioner of pitching analytics. With Cleveland in 2018, he posted a 2.21 ERA and fanned 221 batters in 175⅓ innings and might have won the Cy Young Award if not for a broken leg suffered when hit by a line drive. In 2019, however, he had a 4.48 ERA with Cleveland and Cincinnati, suffering increases in his walk and home run rates. So at the minimum he was solid workhorse, but with the one season that teased a higher level.
He made only 11 starts with the Reds in 2020 but finished with a 1.73 ERA, career best walk and strikeout rates, held batters to a .159 average to win the 2020 NL Cy Young Award. The narrative is now more along the lines of, "Hey, he's been great in two of the past three seasons." That puts him in the discussion as one of the best starters in the majors ... and he's a free agent.
It promises to be a fascinating free agency, as Bauer has indicated in the past that he might sign one-year contracts to maximize his annual salary. You can conceivably make more going year to year -- as long you remain healthy -- than signing a long-term deal. He has walked away from that a bit in September on MLB Network Radio and added, "I want to be with a team that has a winning culture. I want to be there in the playoffs. I want a chance at a World Series. That's one thing that really drives me. I want a chance to pitch every fourth day instead of every fifth day."
He went on to say that he would also prioritize things like the medical staff, technology and the culture within the organization. Of course, he later tweeted, "I'll consider offers from any MLB or NPB team." I wouldn't bet on him heading to Japan though. Then the other day, Bauer asked his followers on social media, "Will I pick my free agency destination on which fan base follows me most on Instagram? It's definitely crossed my mind, and I have been known to do crazy things."
So, yes, interesting. But who realistically has a shot at Bauer? The possibility -- however slim -- of his signing a one-year or even a two-year deal brings more teams into the mix, but if he's serious about joining a World Series contender, the list narrows. Even in this difficult-to-project offseason, Bauer could command $30 million to $35 million on a one-year deal and over $100 million on a four-year deal. Let's break the 30 teams into five tiers and check in how Bauer fits with each.
Jump to: Top Contenders | With the Right Offer | Probably Not | Definitely Not | Forget About It
TIER I: TOP CONTENDERS
New York Yankees
2020 rotation ERA: 4.24 (12th)
Current depth chart: Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, Luis Severino, Deivi Garcia, Domingo German, Michael King
It has now been 11 seasons since the Yankees reached a World Series, five seasons since they reset priorities back in the 2015-16 offseason to withhold from big free-agent signings for a couple of seasons to reemphasize the farm system, and coming up on three seasons since they got under the luxury tax threshold for 2018 and reset their tax rate. In other words, the pressure on Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone -- not to mention the players -- grows more intense with each season.
With Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ and James Paxton all in free agency, the Yankees will certainly be looking to sign a starter, even with the hopeful return of Severino from Tommy John surgery. Maybe that's Tanaka, maybe it's Tanaka and Bauer. You know Bauer would love the Big Apple limelight and to prove that he might be the No. 1 starter over Cole -- his former UCLA teammate with whom he had a rocky relationship when they were with the Bruins. And don't forget the allegations from Bauer a couple of years ago that the Astros obtained high spin rates with the help of an illegal substance. (Of note: Bauer's spin rates on his pitches increased dramatically in 2020; his average fastball spin rate ranked in the 100th percentile.)
The Yankees' current rostered payroll is about $90 million less than last year's pre-COVID-19 total, so there's room to do something here, although a shorter deal is probably more likely given Cole and Giancarlo Stanton will both be making $30-plus million well into the future.
New York Mets
2020 rotation ERA: 5.37 (26th)
Current depth chart: Jacob deGrom, David Peterson, Seth Lugo, Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Corey Oswalt
Two hours after officially completing his purchase of the Mets, new owner Steve Cohen went to work, firing general manager Brodie Van Wagenen and all the top officials of the baseball operations department, instructing new team president Sandy Alderson (the team's former general manager) to build the entire department from scratch. How much that process affects the Mets' offseason strategy remains to be seen, but the assumption is that the Mets will certainly be interested in bringing in at least one of the big free agents -- Bauer, George Springer and J.T. Realmuto (DJ LeMahieu is the fourth, but the Mets are set at second base).
Looking at that ugly rotation ERA and depth chart, it's clear the Mets need to upgrade their rotation. Maybe Marcus Stroman accepts the team's qualifying offer and Syndergaard will return at some point from his Tommy John surgery. "Let's win this thing," Syndergaard tweeted via a gif of the Bobby Axelrod character from "Billions." Syndergaard also had a message for his new owner, telling the New York Post, "All I plead is that the new owner treats players and personnel in the organization like people and less like expendable commodities."
That's a nice sales pitch to bring Bauer to the Mets, but this organization will have to convince Bauer that a new regime means all the missteps in recent years are in the past. Plus, in a division with the Braves and in the same league as the Dodgers and improving Padres, are they serious World Series contenders?
Chicago White Sox
2020 rotation ERA: 3.85 (8th)
Current depth chart: Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Dylan Cease, Dane Dunning, Reynaldo Lopez, Michael Kopech
The hiring of 76-year-old Tony La Russa as manager -- we'll have to see if he retains his job after the revelation that he had a DUI arrest in February -- puts an even more decided emphasis on winning now. Why bring in La Russa if you're also not willing to go the extra mile to solidify the roster? The rotation was actually pretty solid thanks to the 1-2 punch of Giolito and Keuchel, but Keuchel is going to regress from his 1.99 ERA and Cease posted a 6.36 FIP. Dunning looked promising, but Lopez struggled and Kopech hasn't pitched in two years. If Bauer doesn't want to do a long-term deal and ultimately decides going to year-to-year isn't the best avenue either, the White Sox might be a perfect fit for a two-year contract.
Of note: G-Rate Field is one of the better home run parks in the majors, and if there's a nitpick in Bauer's game it's that he can be homer-prone. The one season he wasn't, 2018, came courtesy of a very low rate of home runs on fly balls:
2017: 12.6%
2018: 5.9%
2019: 11.6%
2020: 9.0%
Bauer hasn't indicated that he would factor in the home park, but maybe it's a tiebreaker kind of thing.
Toronto Blue Jays
2020 rotation ERA: 4.55 (17th)
Current depth chart: Hyun-Jin Ryu, Robbie Ray, Tanner Roark, Nate Pearson, Ross Stripling, Trent Thornton, Anthony Kay
The Blue Jays already re-signed Ray to a one-year, $8 million contract, but given that he's coming off a 6.62 ERA while averaging 7.8 walks per nine, that hardly fixes the rotation. The Jays have payroll room to play with, as they currently sit about $32 million under the previous two seasons (and it was even higher from 2016-18). They also have very few long-term commitments, so the flexibility is there for a long-term offer. The Blue Jays, however, rarely play in the big dollar corner of free agency -- Russell Martin was really the only big contract they gave out in the past decade -- and signing with Toronto means competing with the Rays and Yankees.
San Diego Padres
2020 rotation ERA: 3.46 (3rd)
Current depth chart: Mike Clevinger, Dinelson Lamet, Zach Davies, Chris Paddack, Adrian Morejon, Luis Patino, MacKenzie Gore
The Padres don't necessarily need Bauer, with Lamet emerging as a potential ace and Clevinger set to join him for an entire season. The three youngsters will also be fighting for rotation jobs in 2021. On the other hand, the injuries to Lamet and Clevinger that decimated the rotation for the playoffs proves you can never have too much starting pitching, and Paddack's issues with home runs raise some doubts about his ultimate upside. The Padres would have to blow past their recent payrolls to sign Bauer, but if you're going to beat the Dodgers, bringing in Bauer might be the final piece. A shorter-term deal makes sense here.
Los Angeles Dodgers
2020 rotation ERA: 3.29 (2nd)
Current depth chart: Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May
Do the Dodgers need Bauer? No, they will enter 2021 as the best team in baseball with or without him, with a loaded rotation that will also include Price after he opted out of the 2020 season. Signing Bauer, even on a one-year deal, would push the team's payroll over the luxury tax threshold for 2021. Kershaw and Corey Seager are also eligible for free agency after 2021 so future payroll is also something to consider. The Dodgers are also loathe to hand out long-term mega-buck contracts, making the obvious exception for Mookie Betts, but even then his 12-year, $365 million contract included deferred money that lowered the present-day value of his deal to about $306 million.
Anyway, the reasons to go after Bauer are also clear. One World Series title is nice, but two are nicer. The Dodgers like to have eight or nine starting pitching options to help keep everyone healthy and rested for October. Kershaw and Price haven't exactly been injury-free in recent years. Urias, Gonsolin and May, while extremely talented, have yet to pitch 100 innings in a major league season, so their durability over 162 games has not be tested. Finally, if you sign him that means the Padres did not.
TIER II: MAYBE, WITH THE RIGHT OFFER
Atlanta Braves
2020 rotation ERA: 5.51 (28th)
Current depth chart: Max Fried, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright, Bryse Wilson, Tucker Davidson, Touki Toussaint
The Braves finished with the third-best record in the NL despite a rotation that struggled behind Fried. Still, there are reasons to be optimistic with Soroka returning from his Achilles injury and a full season from Anderson. Wilson also had that outstanding start against the Dodgers in the NLCS, a reason to feel perhaps optimistic about his future.
The past couple of seasons the Braves have brought in veterans on one-year deals -- Josh Donaldson and Dallas Keuchel in 2019, Marcell Ozuna and Cole Hamels in 2020. If Bauer is willing to go the one-year route, maybe the Braves fit, but don't expect Liberty Media to consider a long-term deal here, especially with Freddie Freeman's free agency looming after 2021. If the Braves do pursue a big-ticket player this offseason, it's more likely to be bring back Ozuna, along with a cheaper veteran starter like Adam Wainwright. You can get two players like that for the cost of Bauer.
San Francisco Giants
2020 rotation ERA: 4.99 (21st)
Current depth chart: Johnny Cueto, Tyler Anderson, Logan Webb
Yes, that depth chart is correct: At the moment, the Giants are not exactly swimming in starting pitchers (they would like to re-sign Kevin Gausman and Drew Smyly). Trying to chase down the Dodgers and Padres makes the Giants an unlikely landing spot if Bauer wants to pitch in a World Series, but consider that sentiment that Bauer would like to start every fourth day. The Giants might be the perfect team to try that old-school experiment, even if it's merely squeezing a few extra starts over a season, as Farhan Zaidi and Gabe Kapler have shown the willingness to think outside the box. An appropriate amount of money would help as well.
Los Angeles Angels
2020 rotation ERA: 5.52 (29th)
Current depth chart: Dylan Bundy, Andrew Heaney, Griffin Canning, Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, Jaime Barria
The Angels do have room to squeeze Bauer in under the luxury tax for 2021, but even if they make other moves and go over, future payrolls get a little more manageable as Albert Pujols comes off after 2021 and Justin Upton after 2022. That would still mean three players making $30 million-plus in Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Bauer, and that top-heavy approach hasn't worked for the Angels in the past. The bigger issue is more that the Angels remain an organizational mess, with little depth, a mediocre farm system, an inability to keep pitchers healthy, five straight losing seasons and a new GM to be named.
Philadelphia Phillies
2020 rotation ERA: 4.08 (10th)
Current depth chart: Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Zach Eflin, Spencer Howard, Vince Velasquez, David Hale
With Nola and Wheeler locked up for the immediate future (Nola through 2023 and Wheeler through 2024) and Spencer Howard ready to make an impact in 2021, the Phillies might feel they need to address other areas -- like re-signing Realmuto and fixing the bullpen. It doesn't help that the Phillies now have the second-longest playoff drought in the majors. Probably not the right fit but never count out a big-budget team for a pitcher like Bauer.
Minnesota Twins
2020 rotation ERA: 3.54 (5th)
Current depth chart: Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, Randy Dobnak
Bauer is obviously familiar with the Twins having pitched in the AL Central most of his career. This is exactly the kind of addition the Twins need to make and they certainly fit the contender requirement. The payroll is in good shape ($42 million less than last year with minimal long-term commitments), although the Twins would like to re-sign Nelson Cruz, plus they have some holes in the bullpen to fill. Bauer certainly projects as a much safer investment than Josh Donaldson if the Twins want to top last year's biggest-ever contract.
TIER III: PROBABLY NOT SPENDING
Let's rip through this tier. These are teams that could conceivably afford to bid on Bauer, but the fit probably isn't right at this time.
Boston Red Sox
2020 rotation ERA: 5.34 (25th)
Current depth chart: Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Rodriguez, Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck
The Red Sox's priorities are trying to clean up their long-term payroll and rebuilding the farm system, so a big push for 2021 appears unlikely.
Houston Astros
2020 rotation ERA: 4.26 (13th)
Current depth chart: Zack Greinke, Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy, Cristian Javier
Even without Justin Verlander, that could be a pretty good rotation. If the Astros spend in the offseason, it will be re-signing Michael Brantley and replacing the likely-to-depart George Springer.
St. Louis Cardinals
2020 rotation ERA: 3.86 (9th)
Current depth chart: Jack Flaherty, Kwang-Hyun Kim, Miles Mikolas, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Austin Gomber, Carlos Martinez, Alex Reyes
Dakota Hudson is out because of Tommy John surgery, Wainwright is a free agent and Mikolas is expected to be OK after right flexor tendon surgery, but the Cardinals' top issue is fixing an anemic offense.
Washington Nationals
2020 rotation ERA: 5.38 (27th)
Current depth chart: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Erick Fedde, Austin Voth, Joe Ross
They need to get Strasburg healthy -- and with him making $35 million annually through 2026, signing another $30-million plus pitcher seems unlikely. Then again, Scherzer is a free agent after 2021, so the Nationals might look to Bauer as Scherzer's younger replacement.
Chicago Cubs
2020 rotation ERA: 3.77 (6th)
Current depth chart: Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Alec Mills, Adbert Alzolay, Brailyn Marquez
They could use a starting pitcher and maybe if they trade a couple of their position players to free up salary space they would make a run at Bauer.
TIER IV: DEFINITELY NOT SPENDING
Teams: Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Indians, Oakland Athletics, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, Miami Marlins
These teams all made the expanded postseason in 2020 but don't have the deep pockets required to sign Bauer.
TIER V: FORGET ABOUT IT
Teams: Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates
Never say never, but it's hard to imagine Bauer signing with any of these. Some of them might have the financial resources -- the Rangers, Tigers and Mariners in particular -- but their contention status in the immediate future remains questionable.