Three factors will drive the interest in free agency and the ultimate payout for J.T. Realmuto:
1. The perception that the current level of catching in the majors -- at least from a hitting standpoint -- is at a historic low.
2. Realmuto is a good hitter! He leads all catchers in runs and RBIs over the past three seasons and ranks third behind Yasmani Grandal and Mitch Garver in wRC+. He is also a good defender with excellent framing metrics; he won a Gold Glove in 2019. He is also a plus athlete, with above-average speed, and while he will be entering his age-30 season, that athleticism could help him age well on a long-term deal.
3. Certain big-market teams are in drastic need of a catcher -- the Phillies, Mets and Yankees should all be interested in Realmuto's services.
It is true that catcher offense has dipped a bit in recent years, but the demise has been slightly overstated. In 2020, catchers had an OPS split relative to the major league average of 91 -- meaning catchers were 9 percent below average. In 2019, it was 90, and in 2018, it was 87. That did follow a run from 2011 to 2014 when catchers were between 95 and 99 each season, the best catcher hitting since the late 1970s and early 1980s when four Hall of Famers (Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk, Gary Carter, Ted Simmons) manned the position. Still, since 1969 the overall relative split is 92.8, so catcher hitting in the past couple of seasons has been close to historical norms.
Still, Realmuto has been a consistent run producer the past five seasons at a position teams have struggled to fill, especially with former All-Stars like Yadier Molina and Buster Posey in the decline phase of their careers. As a two-way player, he's clearly the best all-around catcher in the game right now. It is worth noting that he did slug much better the past two seasons in the cozy confines of Philadelphia, with 24 home runs at home and 12 on the road, although he did hit 21 home runs with the Marlins in 2018 in a tough home run park.
Of course, that's in the past. What a team that may give him $100 million will try to project: What will he do in the future? Indeed, Kiley McDaniel predicted a five-year, $110 million contract for Realmuto, and only two catchers have ever signed larger deals. As a point of comparison, let's see how the catchers who signed the six big deals over the past decade fared.
2020: Yasmani Grandal (age 31), 4 years, $73 million, 114 OPS+ over previous three seasons. It's too early to know the long-term ramifications here, but his first season with the White Sox followed along a similar profile with a 113 OPS+.
2015: Russell Martin (32), 5 years, $82 million, 108 OPS+. After posting a .402 OBP with the Pirates in 2014, Martin signed a big deal with the Blue Jays. He helped them reach the playoffs in 2015 and 2016, but his OPS+ over the life of the deal was 96 and he spent the final season as a backup with the Dodgers.
2014: Brian McCann (30), 5 years, $85 million, 108 OPS+. McCann hit 49 home runs and drove in 169 runs his first two seasons with the Yankees, but his best OPS+ over the five-year deal was a 106 mark with Houston in 2017.
2013: Yadier Molina (30), 5 years, $75 million, 116 OPS+. Molina had broken out at the plate in 2011 and hit .300 for the third straight season in 2013, his first under his extension with the Cardinals. He produced a 104 OPS+ over the five years and signed another three-year, $60 million that just expired.
2013: Buster Posey (26), 9 years, $167 million, 149 OPS+. Posey was coming off his MVP season of 2012 when the Giants gave him the big contract well before he hit free agency. He had a 129 OPS+ from 2013 to 2017, but has since had injury issues and he sat out 2020.
2011: Joe Mauer (28): 8 years, $184 million, 148 OPS+. Concussion issues forced Mauer to first base just four seasons into the deal, with his offense dropping off as well at age 31.
None of the catchers matched their pre-contract level of offense. Injuries are certainly a risk (and Realmuto missed the end of the Phillies' season with a strained hip flexor). I worry a little about how the power plays if he leaves Philadelphia. Still, we're talking about elite athleticism for a catcher and the defensive ability should remain strong. A five-year deal makes sense, with the likelihood that he remains at an All-Star level the first three seasons before that bat starts going south.
While many teams need catching help, the market for Realmuto probably won't be as robust as it will be for Trevor Bauer or George Springer. But, as they say, you only need two to tango. Let's see where Realmuto will end up ...
THE FAVORITES
Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies now have the longest playoff drought in the National League (only the Mariners have a longer one in MLB) and since they didn't reach the postseason in Realmuto's two seasons with the club, the trade with the Marlins could end up looking really bad if Sixto Sanchez turns into a star. There is also a necessary win-now mentality with a roster built around Bryce Harper, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, plus veterans like Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura. On the other hand, the AP reported this week that a source told them the Phillies lost $145 million in 2020. They could backload Realmuto's contract, which wouldn't affect the average annual value (AAV) of the deal for luxury tax purposes but could help the cash flow for 2021.
New York Mets: With Steve Cohen looking like he's ready to spend, the Mets are expected to be in on all four of the top free agents -- Realmuto, Bauer, Springer and DJ LeMahieu -- as well as shortstop Francisco Lindor via trade, with many insiders predicting the Mets could bring in two of the five players. The Mets have options here if they think signing a 30-year-old catcher is too risky. Molina and James McCann are free agents and clear defensive upgrades over the departed Wilson Ramos, with some value at the plate as well. Mike Zunino is a defense-first option. The Mets might want to save money at catcher and put that toward bringing in Springer to fill a need in center field.
New York Yankees: There was speculation the Yankees would elect to non-tender Gary Sanchez, but they did offer him a 2021 contract. That doesn't mean he will be their starting catcher next season, however, as he remains potential trade bait if the Yankees and perhaps both sides agree that Sanchez needs a change of scenery. The Yankees will also be in on Molina and James McCann and if they do sign a big free agent, Bauer might make more sense to bring in as a strong No. 2 behind Gerrit Cole (Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton are both free agents).
Washington Nationals: Yan Gomes is still here, but Kurt Suzuki is a free agent and the Nationals need to upgrade a lineup that struggled in 2020 outside of Juan Soto and Trea Turner. With Gomes as a capable backup, the Nationals can keep Realmuto fresh by giving him at-bats at first base or DH. If the Nationals are willing to push up the payroll close to the luxury tax, as they did in 2019 and would have in 2020, they still have about $50 million to spend, enough to bring in Realmuto and fill out a couple other holes with lesser free agents.
LONG SHOTS
Los Angeles Angels: The Angels have struggled to fill catcher since Chris Iannetta was the regular four seasons in a row from 2012 to 2015. Anthony Bemboom and Max Stassi are the two catchers currently on the 40-man roster and maybe the team wants to give Stassi a chance after he popped seven home runs in 105 at-bats in 2020, but Realmuto would bring some much-needed stability behind the plate.
Houston Astros: If the Astros lose Springer, Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick in free agency, they will need some offense and should have some money to play with. They won't be going anywhere near last year's pre-COVID payroll of $233 million, but they have some flexibility and while they like Martin Maldonado's defense, they will need some offense if Springer and Brantley depart. With Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke free agents after 2021, the payroll loses another $65 million by 2022. Again, you could backload the contract with a lower base salary for 2021.
Toronto Blue Jays: It seems clear the Blue Jays want to do something splashy in free agency, although that might mean playing on the level below the big four. Danny Jansen was an intriguing prospect a couple of years ago, but has now hit .208/.297/.370 in 626 big league plate appearances and his framing metrics are below average. Alejandro Kirk is certainly interesting as a hitting prospect, but he hasn't played above Class A other than his stint in the majors in September. It's difficult to get U.S.-born free agents to come to Toronto -- the big free agents the Blue Jays signed in the past decade were Canadian native Martin and then Hyun-Jin Ryu this past offseason, and the Jays arguably had to overpay for both. Still, Realmuto is a huge upgrade and you could look to flip Kirk for some pitching help or continue his development in the minors for a couple of seasons.
Texas Rangers: The Rangers have four catchers on the 40-man roster, but the best of the lot is probably light-hitting Jose Trevino, their backup the past couple of seasons. Prospect Sam Huff may end up at first base, so there is a long-term hole here. The Rangers don't appear close to contending any time soon, however, so it doesn't make sense to overpay to convince Realmuto to come to Texas.