Many good things happened to the Atlanta Braves in 2020: They won a playoff series for the first time since 2001, Freddie Freeman won the MVP award, Max Fried went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, Ronald Acuna Jr. was one of the best hitters in the league, and the bullpen was outstanding.
The loss to the Dodgers in the NLCS, blowing a 3-1 series lead, was a disappointing end to the season and left clear that the Braves needed to upgrade the starting rotation. Acting quickly in an otherwise slow offseason in the sport, the Braves have done that, signing Drew Smyly to a one-year, $11 million contract last week and now agreeing with Charlie Morton on a one-year, $15 million deal, per Jeff Passan.
Give baseball operations president Alex Anthopoulos credit for the signings while other teams are still determining their budgets for 2021 or waiting to see the potential flood of non-tendered players hit the market in early December. The one-year contract has become a signature move for the Braves in recent seasons -- Josh Donaldson in 2019, Marcell Ozuna and Cole Hamels in 2020 -- so Smyly and Morton fit that pattern. For Morton, it's a return to his original organization -- Atlanta drafted him in the third round out of high school in 2002 and he debuted with the team in 2008.
A Braves rotation that ranked 28th in the majors in 2020 with a 5.51 ERA will now make three significant additions if you factor in that Mike Soroka made just three starts after tearing his Achilles tendon. Or, really, 3.5 additions, since rookie Ian Anderson made just six starts. This now looks like a rotation that could go from worst to best and not just keep the Braves as favorites to win a fourth straight NL East title -- no matter what the Mets or Phillies or Nationals do this offseason -- but allow them to go toe-to-toe once again with the all-powerful Dodgers.
Here are some 2021 projections from the Bill James Handbook:
Fried: 30 GS, 163 IP, 4.15 ERA
Soroka: 21 GS, 121 IP, 3.88 ERA
Morton: 27 GS, 139 IP, 3.61 ERA
Anderson: 25 GS, 126 IP, 3.93 ERA
Smyly: 17 GS, 90 IP, 4.75 ERA
Those numbers may look a little conservative, but projections are by nature constructed to be conservative. Certainly, there is more upside from all five of those pitchers, especially given Fried's 2020 performance, Soroka's 2.68 ERA as a rookie in 2019, and Anderson's terrific debut with a 1.95 ERA and just one home run allowed in 32 ⅓ innings.
Morton and Smyly do come with some risk, however. We've all seen Morton's excellent work in the postseason with the Astros and Rays in recent Octobers and he finished third in the 2019 Cy Young voting. He's also 37 years old, missed nearly a month in 2020 with a sore shoulder and did have a 4.74 ERA with the Rays in 2020. His fastball velocity was down, his hard-hit rate was up and that wipeout curveball was not quite as dominating. Still, as with all 2020 numbers, you have to be careful about the analysis, and when he was healthy in the playoffs Morton looked very good.
Smyly is probably the bigger unknown. After missing all of 2017 and 2018 after Tommy John surgery and then struggling with a 6.24 ERA in 2019, Smyly was outstanding with the Giants in 2020, most impressively with a 42-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 26 ⅓ innings. His fastball velo was up from 91.2 mph in 2019 to 93.8. A curveball that he unveiled last season to replace his slider was effective, holding batters to a .184 average. His strikeout rate of 37.8% compares to the likes of Jacob deGrom, Tyler Glasnow and Trevor Bauer. On the other hand, it was just 26 innings from a pitcher who hadn't been even moderately effective since 2016. Still, if you believe in the velocity gains and the health, he could be a huge addition.
It's worth noting that the Braves also have rotation depth in reserve -- Bryse Wilson, Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint are still here (and Wilson had that impressive outing against the Dodgers in the NLCS). Prospects Tucker Davidson and Kyle Muller are close to MLB-ready. Some of those guys could end up in the bullpen, replacing free agents Mark Melancon, Shane Greene and Darren O'Day. That depth will be a huge factor since teams might be particularly cautious with the innings they give their starters (especially young starters) given everyone's light workload in 2020.
The final question is whether the $26 million spent on Morton and Smyly takes Ozuna out of the team's 2021 plans. Given the historical spending habits of Liberty Media, there might still be a little room in the payroll. The Morton signing pushes the payroll up to an estimated $143 million, which is still about $43 million less than where it would have been in 2020. Of course, like most teams, the Braves are unlikely to match 2020's original payroll given losses suffered in 2020 and unknown factors for 2021. The Braves may also think they have enough offense if they buy into Adam Duvall's power numbers from last season, plus rookie Cristian Pache is ready to take over in center field. This would be their projected lineup without Ozuna:
RF Acuna
SS Dansby Swanson
1B Freeman
C Travis d'Arnaud
LF Duvall
2B Ozzie Albies
3B Austin Riley
CF Pache
DH ???
Obviously, it's not the same lineup without Ozuna (the Braves were second behind the Dodgers in runs per game), and assuming the NL brings back the DH, he's obviously the perfect fit. Maybe Nick Markakis returns for one more season, although he didn't hit much in 2020 after originally opting out and then returning (.254/.312/.392). There are other options that might also make sense and won't cost as much as Ozuna -- Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson, Tommy La Stella -- plus the Braves may spend a little money on a couple relievers. But if you want to beat the Dodgers, bring back Ozuna.