Maybe it wasn't quite The Beatles playing Shea Stadium in 1965, but the New York Mets officially introduced new owner Steve Cohen last week and let's just say he became an immediate rock star. Mets fans haven't been this ecstatic since the ball rolled between Bill Buckner's legs.
Yes, part of the enthusiasm is simply saying goodbye to the bumbling Wilpon regime. While the Mets had periodic runs of success under Fred Wilpon and son Jeff after Wilpon and his Sterling Equities partners acquired full control of the team in 2002 -- a National League Championship Series appearance in 2006, a World Series trip in 2015 and a playoff spot the following season -- a string of bizarre and embarrassing episodes marked the franchise in recent years. Mostly, though, it was the losing: The Mets have had just three winning seasons in the past 12 years.
Mets fans put much of the blame on their penny-pinching owners, who were never willing to spend like a big-market franchise over the past decade after losing hundreds of millions in the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme. Since 2012, the only year the Mets cracked the top 10 in payroll was this past season. Enter the league's richest owner. Cohen is worth an estimated $14.5 billion -- give or take a few million depending on the time of day. His net worth is higher than the next three richest owners combined.
So imagine the reaction when Cohen said during his introductory Zoom call that the Mets are a "major-market team and should have a budget commensurate with that." He added that, "I am not in this to be mediocre. I want to be something great."
He spoke about enhancing the organization's analytics. He said all the things an owner should say. Sandy Alderson, the team's former general manager and now the team president, put it similarly: "We can now emphasize the acquisition rather than the cost."
Mets fans want a revolution? Cohen is promising one, saying his expectation is to win a World Series in three to five years. That gets us to this offseason, with the assumption that Cohen's wallet will allow the Mets to pursue free agents Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, George Springer and Marcell Ozuna, plus possibly a Francisco Lindor trade. The offseason also got a lot more interesting with the suspension Wednesday of Robinson Cano for the entire 2021 season after a second positive PED test.
This doesn't mean the Mets will land all those players, of course, and Cohen warned that he will splurge when necessary, but the backbone of the team's success will have to be player development. Still, the Mets are expecting to be competitive in 2021. As Alderson said, "There is a foundation there if we can add the right pieces this year -- and Steve has indicated that we will have the opportunity to do that -- we can be pretty good, pretty quickly. That is my goal in 2021."
With all that in mind, let's consider a realistic guide to the Mets' offseason. First, where the Mets stand on a few issues:
1. Payroll
According to Cot's Contracts, before the Cano suspension the Mets had a projected payroll of about $154 million, leaving them $55 million under the luxury tax. Cano was set to make $24 million in 2021, with the Mets responsible for $20.25 million, so now they are about $75 million under. It's possible Cohen is willing to blow past the luxury tax in his first year, but given his comments last week, that is no guarantee. The Mets might not want to spend all their payroll room this year either, given that next year's free-agent class potentially includes the likes of Lindor, Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Carlos Correa (and that's just the shortstops), plus Freddie Freeman, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Lance Lynn, Zack Greinke, Dylan Bundy and Lance McCullers Jr.
Even so, payroll surely will go up, but for our purposes let's limit it to the tax threshold. Also, keep in mind that Cano's salary comes off the books for just one season. He's still under contract for 2022 and 2023.
Something else to keep in mind: The Mets might non-tender some players on the roster. Candidates might include Noah Syndergaard, who will get an estimated $10 million in arbitration, but is returning from Tommy John surgery and likely will miss half the season. Steven Matz is coming off a 9.68 ERA over 30⅔ innings and will get an estimated $5.25 million. Robert Gsellman ($1.5 million), Miguel Castro ($1.5M), Guillermo Heredia ($1.2M) and Nick Tropeano ($975,000) are also non-tender candidates.
2. Needs
Alderson spoke about this last week, listing the team's major needs as improving the infield defense, having a new catching tandem and improving bullpen consistency. He also emphasized the need for organizational depth, saying the Mets have "no depth at Double-A and Triple-A," so they will be busy signing six-year minor league free agents to help fill out those rosters.
Also clearly in need of improvement is the starting rotation, which ranked 26th in the majors with a 5.37 ERA. Marcus Stroman accepted the team's qualifying offer, so he's currently the No. 2 behind Jacob deGrom after sitting out 2020, but after that you're looking at David Peterson, Seth Lugo, Matz and Syndergaard when he's ready.
3. Trade candidates
Amed Rosario is the most likely player to be traded, although he also is an internal option to replace Cano at second base. Given Alderson's stated emphasis on infield defense, the Mets have a much better in-house candidate at shortstop in Andres Gimenez, a clear upgrade based on his rookie performance. He was credited with plus-1 defensive run saved in his short time in the majors versus minus-3 for Rosario and certainly looked the part more so than Rosario ever has. It's not like Rosario's bat has come around, either, as he hit .252/.272/.371 in 2020. He's still just 25, however, and given his league-average production at the plate in 2019, some team will be willing to trade for him.
Michael Conforto or Brandon Nimmo are other trade possibilities, depending on what the Mets do in the outfield. Conforto is in his final year before free agency while Nimmo is two years away. If the Mets acquire a center fielder and play Conforto in right, they have options for left field in Dominic Smith, Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis, so maybe Nimmo is dangled for pitching help.
OK, let's figure out a plan. First, let's reduce the payroll. We'll non-tender Gsellman, Castro, Heredia and Tropeano, and trade Rosario (trimming $1.75 million). It feels like Matz needs a change of scenery, so he'll either be traded or non-tendered. With Syndergaard, I think the Mets try to work out a deal like the Padres just did with Mike Clevinger. It's not an apples-to-apples comparison as a two-year deal for Syndergaard would have to buy out one year of free agency, but Syndergaard has expressed enthusiasm about the new owner. A two-year deal for $20 million gives him a chance to rebuild his value, entering free agency after 2022 with presumably a full season of action under his belt. With those moves, we just saved a little more than $12 million for 2021, leaving the Mets $87 million under the tax threshold.
For our scenarios, we'll use contract estimates from Kiley McDaniel's free-agent rankings, although we'll fudge on Bauer and give him a multiyear deal instead of one-year contract.
Scenario No. 1: Shoot for the stars
• Sign RHP Trevor Bauer (4 years, $120 million, $30 million per season)
• Sign OF George Springer (4 years, $108 million, $27 million per season)
• Sign C James McCann (2 years, $21 million, $10.5 million per season)
• Acquire SS Francisco Lindor (1 year, $23 million)
Even going with McCann instead of Realmuto at catcher pushes the Mets just over the tax threshold, so this is probably a pie-in-the-sky dream. Under this scenario, the Mets could trade Nimmo and play McNeil in left, Davis at third and Smith at first, with Pete Alonso the DH (if the universal DH returns to the National League). Or they could play Nimmo in left and McNeil at third with Davis filling in.
How likely is a Lindor trade? Rosario would give Cleveland a replacement at shortstop, or maybe the Indians prefer Gimenez or Ronny Mauricio, the top prospect in the Mets' system. The Mets would have to include at least another prospect or two, such as catcher Francisco Alvarez, pitcher Matthew Allan or outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Given what Cohen said about building from within, however, hemorrhaging the farm system for one year of Lindor feels like a reach. It's also likely that another team would outbid the Mets, since all of their top prospects are a ways from the majors.
Scenario No. 2: Power-packed lineup
• Sign C J.T. Realmuto (5 years, $110 million, $22 million AAV)
• Sign INF DJ LeMahieu (4 years, $88 million, $22 million AAV)
• Sign OF Marcell Ozuna (3 years, $60 million, $20 million AAV)
• Sign RHP Jake Odorizzi (1 year, $11 million)
• Sign LHP Mike Minor (1 year, $8 million)
Maybe the Mets prefer Realmuto over Springer given that catcher is the bigger need. While there is obvious risk in signing a 30-year-old catcher to a long-term deal, Realmuto is athletic and his defense is strong enough to absorb some decline with the bat. It's also true that the Mets have shuffled through various center fielders in recent years and this scenario leaves Nimmo there, where he has been minus-6 DRS over the past two seasons. Still, that's passable out there and it's not like Springer is a Gold Glover in center (although he's better than Nimmo).
Alderson mentioned improving the infield defense and now there is a whole at second base. LeMahieu would be a nice upgrade at second with the glove and has had back-to-back monster seasons at the plate, although prying him away from the Yankees won't be easy. Ozuna can play left field, Smith can play first base, with Alonso the DH, giving the Mets this imposing lineup:
2B LeMahieu
1B Smith
LF Ozuna
RF Conforto
DH Alonso
3B McNeil
C Realmuto
CF Nimmo
SS Gimenez
Wow. That might be the best lineup in Mets history, one that would challenge the Dodgers and Braves as best in the NL. The problem is that in signing three long-term contracts, the payroll becomes less manageable when Cano returns in 2022. The Mets would also have to dip into the second tier of starting pitchers and still have rotation issues. This didn't work out so well last year with Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha, although Odorizzi and Minor both have upside based on their 2019 performances. Given the contracts signed by Robbie Ray (one year, $8 million) and Drew Smyly (one year, $11 million), however, those estimates for Odorizzi and Ray might be a little low.
Scenario No. 3: Pitching and defense
• Sign Trevor Bauer (4 years, $120 million, $30 million AAV)
• Sign Liam Hendriks (3 years, $42 million, $14 million AAV)
• Sign James McCann (2 years, $21 million, $10.5 million AAV)
• Sign Jackie Bradley Jr. (1 year, $11 million)
• Sign Kolten Wong (1 year, $10 million)
This is the pitching-and-defense scenario. Wong is the two-time reigning NL Gold Glove winner at second base while Bradley is a plus defender in center. Hendriks has been the best closer in baseball the past two seasons and allows Edwin Diaz to slide into a setup role.
The lineup would look like this:
LF Nimmo
1B Smith
RF Conforto
DH Alonso
3B McNeil
C McCann
CF Bradley
2B Wong
SS Gimenez
That's seven left-handed batters in the starting nine. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but maybe you keep Heredia around as a right-handed outfield option, and there might be a little wiggle room in the payroll to bring in a right-handed infielder to spell Wong and Gimenez (such as Dodgers utility guy Kiké Hernández). This lineup is dependent on Smith backing up his 2020 breakout and Alonso finding at least a happy medium between 2019 and 2020, but it still projects as above average. The rotation is deGrom, Bauer, Stroman, Peterson, Lugo and eventually Syndergaard. Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances and Chasen Shreve back up Hendriks and Diaz. The one-year deals for Wong and Bradley also leave more payroll flexibility moving forward.
Of these scenarios, the third one feels like the most realistic. Maybe it's not as sexy as bringing in three big names, but it feels like a complete team, with the best defense the Mets would have since ... well, even the 1986 World Series champs weren't known for their defense. With the past two NL Cy Young winners heading the rotation and a very good No. 3 in Stroman, the rotation looks better and could be an imposing group for the postseason, especially if Syndergaard makes it back.
That's a team that could make a deep playoff run. And make a new owner very happy.